Uzbekistan Opinions - The Times Of Central Asia

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How India is Becoming a Robust Soft Power in Central Asia

The middle-income trap, a pressing issue that has led to the stagnation of many successful developing economies, demands immediate attention. This trap, which occurs when a middle-income country can no longer compete internationally in standardized, labor-intensive goods due to relatively high wages, is a result of various factors, including countries most successful demographic characteristics. For instance, access to education has reduced birth rates due to an almost 100% literacy rate defined by 12 years of education. In the process, importing cheap manufacturing products has made local products uncompetitive. In such a situation, the country should have planned to upgrade current skill-based education to high-tech skills such as ICT, pharmaceuticals, etc. This shift to high-tech education holds immense potential for developing countries, offering a pathway out of the middle-income trap. Unfortunately, poor investment in developing high-tech education has led to an inadequate supply of a high-skilled workforce. Developed economies, such as the U.S. and a few European countries, are in an advantageous position to overcome such a trap due to their highly effective immigration policy. Developing countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the Philippines, and almost all Central Asian Republics, meanwhile, suffer. This will be further aggravated if the issue is not addressed urgently. Due to its geographic location and natural resource endowments, Central Asia, a diverse region with a mix of upper-middle and low-income countries, holds significant importance in the global economic landscape. Let's look at a specific case, such as Uzbekistan, a country whose population is growing at 1.3% per annum. Regarding age structure, the 0-14 age group makes up 30.1% of the population, the 15-64 age group 64.6%, and the 65-plus group constitutes just 5.3%. The country has achieved a high literacy rate, with 100% of the population completing 12 years of primary and higher secondary education. However, the country’s GDP per capita is relatively low, at US$ 3,209 (nominal term) and US$ 11,316 (PPP). The country's economy is dominated by the services sector, which contributes 48.4% to the GDP, followed by industry at 33.7%, and agriculture at 17.9%. The poverty line is set at less than US$ 3.2 per day, affecting 10% of the population. The country's labor force is distributed across sectors, with 25.9% in agriculture, 13.2% in industry, and 60.9% in services. The unemployment rate is 5.3%, and underemployment is a significant issue, affecting 20% of the population. The low supply of highly skilled workers challenges further increasing per capita income. The country will likely fall into this middle-income trap because it reaches a certain average income and cannot progress beyond that level. It seems helpful to mention some insights from this perspective. During Soviet times, the growth model of states was determined by their available resources, and Central Asia is rich in abundant resources. However, in most cases, primary resources were taken to other non-resource wealthy states for further value addition. So, the workforce was created in the respective states based on the concerned state's requirements. Workforce migration from one state to another was...

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Endangered Fish Species in the Amu Darya Basin May Disappear Due to Hydropower Plants

The 14th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals is being held this week in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The international environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries is calling on conference participants to pay serious attention to how the rampant construction of dams and reservoirs across Central Asia is leading to population declines and the complete extinction of endangered (red-listed) species. Rivers Without Boundaries experts point to the long-suffering Amu Darya river basin as an example: the alteration of its flow as a result of reservoirs and dams that change the hydrological regime and block fish migration routes was the most important reason for the Convention on Migratory Species to take under its protection the large Amu Darya sturgeon, a unique sturgeon adapted to live in the fast and turbid waters of the Vakhsh, Pyandj and Amu Darya. Its close relative, the Syr Darya sturgeon, is already considered extinct by most experts, due to the creation of numerous dams and reservoirs on the Syr Darya and its tributaries. Nevertheless, as experts from the Rivers Without Boundaries coalition emphasize, the recent World Bank assessment of the environmental impact of the construction of the Rogun hydropower plant in the Amu Darya basin does not consider the state of populations and the possible impact of changes in river flow on rare species of fish in the lower Vakhsh and the Amu Darya itself. Another example cited by ecologists is the Aral salmon (listed in the Red Book of Tajikistan), which once migrated along the Amu Darya and the Vakhsh, but since the creation of the Tuyamuyun hydro system and the Vakhsh group of hydropower plants has now completely disappeared from the area. Scientists found a last grouping of Aral salmon in the Nurek reservoir, but this too is likely to disappear as a result of the construction of the Rogun hydropower station upstream, as this will simply leave the salmon with no rivers in which to spawn. "Despite the requirements of national legislation regarding environmental impact assessment and protection of rare species, in all Central Asian countries, rivers - as well as their valleys, and the fauna and flora that depend on their ecological health - are massively sacrificed to the implementation of poorly justified hydraulic engineering projects," points out Evgeny Simonov, the international coordinator for Rivers Without Boundaries. "To date, when designing and building most dams throughout the region, no one is seriously trying to prevent damage to populations of rare migratory species." "Refusal to consider the potential impacts of hydropower plants on rare migratory species and natural ecosystems is not only a gross violation of international environmental conventions, but also often contradicts the environmental policy of those development banks that are going to lend money to build reservoirs," emphasizes Alexander Kolotov, Central Asia coordinator of the Rivers Without Boundaries environmental coalition. “We hope that the discussions during the conference in Samarkand will lead to the introduction of more responsible approaches to the selection of sites...

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Mirziyoyev Fortifies China-Uzbekistan Relations for Economic and Green Transformation

Ahead of his trip to Beijing, in his article for the People's Daily, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev poured lavish praise on China. Not only did Mirziyoyev say he admired Chinese President Xi Jinping's global development, security and civilization initiatives as efforts to significantly address global challenges and accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and inclusive future, he also aligned Tashkent's vision of regional and international security with Beijing. Mirziyoyev has paid several visits to China, underscoring Beijing's growing importance in his economic and development agenda. His objective to strengthen "multifaceted" relations with Beijing further expounds the fact that China will be a centerpiece of his foreign and regional policy and ambition for a green transition. During his October's trip to Beijing to attend the third Belt and Road Forum, Mirziyoyev struck a complimentary tone, expressing gratitude to Xi for the invitation, stressed that the number of Chinese companies investing in Uzbekistan had increased fivefold and said that he expected bilateral trade to exceed $10 billion by the end of 2023. Mirziyoyev’s campaign has worked, given that Chinese enterprises are the second-largest investors in the country, China accounts for more than one-fifth of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade (21.3%) and bilateral trade in 2023 has far exceeded expectations, reaching $14 billion. Once Mirziyoyev signaled that China as one of his top foreign policy priorities, it helped Tashkent sign several agreements with Beijing. In his latest visit, Mirziyoyev called for international unity on the "Green Silk Road," which was first proposed by Xi in Uzbekistan back in 2016, and fully supported the green initiative’s potential to shape the agenda for a “common green future.” Construction of a 400-megawatt solar photovoltaic power plant by PowerChina and Mirziyoyev's meetings with Chinese energy companies in October indicated that he was impressed by their ability to deploy modern engineering solutions in electricity transmission networks and to implement solar, wind and hybrid power projects. Just last month, Mirziyoyev praised his strategic partner for completing projects at an “astonishingly” fast pace, and he continues to hail China's progress on large scale joint investments projects which have helped Tashkent make important strides in developing green energy and their endeavor to create 27 gigawatts of renewable energy generation by 2030. While cooperation with the "undisputed global leader" in renewable energy would solidify Tashkent's energy security and environmental sustainability, the first hydrogen plant in the country and region will also save some 33 million cubic meters of gas every year, decarbonize heavy industries, and add a new engine of growth, raising Uzbekistan’s international profile. The two nations are promoting active cooperation on infrastructure, too. The Chinese-built Angren-Pap railway line, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan transport corridor, and the four routes of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline that pass through Uzbekistan denote a region-wide consensus on developing intra- and inter-regional infrastructure to push trade, enhance connectivity, and bring prosperity. Once finalized, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project will give Central Asia the shortest and most accessible passage to global markets, bringing billions of dollars of investments into...

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Islamic Extremism in Central Asia: A Threat to Liberal Progress

Afghanistan earned its reputation as the “graveyard of empires” due to the significant toll exacted on foreign powers in their efforts to achieve military success in the country. This challenge was evident in the experiences of the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and, most recently, the United States. The persistent and decentralized nature of the country's tribal insurgency made achieving a definitive victory a formidable task. Furthermore, the adherence of groups harbored by the Taliban, such as Al Qaeda, to an extremist religious ideology spread terrorism globally, including in the 9/11 attacks as well as other deadly acts of violence in various parts of the world. While the United States arguably played a constructive role in modernizing Afghanistan, the establishment of democracy and Western values in the country proved to be an insurmountable challenge, even with over $100 billion in foreign aid. With heightened tensions between the Islamic and Western populations reignited in the Levant after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, the threat of Afghanistan-based extremists redirecting their focus towards the West has intensified. Often overlooked is the fact that Salafists jihadists and other radical groups also pose a challenge to the emerging democracies in Central Asia as these Muslim-majority secular republics are seen as areas to spread their undemocratic and potentially violent influence. In this context, policies that may even inadvertently help promote illiberal religious movements threaten the region’s secular identity and the security of its peoples. We should assess Central Asia’s unique position on religious freedoms but also on jihadist threats For the large part, Western countries come from a privileged position of being able to resist the widespread influence from Islamic extremist movements at home thanks mainly to generations of democratic institution building as well as decent geographic distance to areas that would fall under pan-jihadist aspirations. Consider that there is no apparent threat of jihadists entirely displacing Western democratic institutions or imposing a pan-Islamist state encompassing parts of Western nations; most Western lands do not fall on areas some of these groups want to conquer to create an Islamic Caliphate. On the other hand, many other places, including Central Asia, still risk misconstruing the line between defending individual freedoms and combatting religious extremism. Here, the coexistence of extremist Islamic ideologies and democracy remains somewhat precarious. Islamic radicalism continues to pose a serious challenge to the emerging democracies of the region, where the secular republics are trying to keep a lid on certain hostile ideologies. Militant groups spilling over from Afghanistan and infiltrating post-Soviet countries want to spread jihad to the region and create an Islamic Khaganate stretching from Egypt to China. Pan-Islamist Salafists, such as Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Al Qaeda, have a clear goal to overthrow Central Asia’s secular regimes. Moreover, the determination of Salafists jihadists and other groups to spread their illiberal and violent struggle to Central Asia (including from neighboring Afghanistan) has become apparent through their growing presence in the region’s schools and other spheres of public...

Opinion Head Central Asia Uzbekistan Opinions Tajikistan Opinions Turkmenistan Opinions Opinions Kazakhstan Opinions Kyrgyzstan Opinions

Central Asia’s Growing Economic and Strategic Importance Comes to Fore

The Central Asian region has experienced a tremendous economic transformation since the beginning of the century. Its aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) now totals $397 billion, growing 8.6-fold since the year 2000. Its share in global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) has also increased 1.8 times. The GDP per capita has tripled as the labor pool has grown to almost 80 million, representing a 1.4-fold increase since 2000. The region’s strategic importance, particularly thanks to its geographic position bridging major economies of Europe and Asia, makes it a key player in geopolitical dynamics. Central Asia’s dependence on commodity exports and remittances has so far limited its integration into global value-chains. The Central Asia Regional Economic Co-operation (CAREC) Program, established by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), plays an important role in fostering regional development and co-operation. CAREC includes the five Central Asia countries (namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) plus Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Mongolia and Pakistan. CAREC also partners with five multilateral international institutions in addition to the ADB (which serves as its Secretariat). These are the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank (a.k.a. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development or IBRD). The Program has constructively helped the countries of Central Asia to address challenges in trade governance. Nevertheless, inefficiencies in cross-border transport and customs procedures continue to hinder their commercial exchanges with one another as well as with external partners. CAREC’s current policy-implementation priorities are integration of regional trade, digitization, climate change, regional co-operation, development of financial technologies and financing in the water sector. There is still significant potential for further development given that the region’s trade within itself has been growing faster than its foreign trade. Enhancing Central Asia’s role in the global economy will require the implementation of co-operative initiatives already identified, especially in infrastructure. Such construction of new physical plants, as well as the renovation and building-out of those that already exist, is crucial for enhancing economic growth and sustainability. This strategy will leverage the region’s strengths such as its strategic location and resource endowments. In 2023, Central Asia’s economic growth is projected to remain relatively steady at 3.9 percent, but this may still be affected by the global challenges of weak external demand, rising inflation and supply-chain disruptions. These global economic conditions, along with the uncertainties that they engender, reflect continuing burdens of the ongoing post-COVID recovery as well as the effects of the war in Ukraine, which significantly impacts the region. In addition to the ADB, the IBRD also focuses on various development initiatives in Central Asia that aim to support regional infrastructure development and the strengthening of cross-border co-operation. These are implemented through relatively low-profile initiatives such as the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) to enhance energy and water security and the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) to improve weather, climate and hydrological services. The IBRD thus aims to increase...

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What Will the Future Hold for Uzbekistan’s Gas Problems?

What Will the Future Hold for Uzbekistan’s Gas Problems? Can the infrastructure of Uzbekistan carry the country into a geopolitical resource hub? The country has certainly benefited from energy exports: In terms of available reserves, Uzbekneftegaz remains the sacred cow of the state, which has generated significant foreign exchange earnings. Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov even started to switch industrial enterprises “of no social significance” from natural gas to coal so that more gas would be available for export. In 2019, natural gas was sold on the domestic market at a price of US$118 per thousand cubic meters while Uzbekistan sold gas for export at US$145 per thousand cubic meters. The money came in foreign currency. The conversion of small and medium-sized businesses (such as restaurants and factories for the production of building materials) to coal made it possible to free up over 2.1 billion cubic meters of gas, that is, around US$315 million. On the other hand, gas supply on the domestic market left much to be desired. During the winter period, temperatures unexpectedly dropped below -20 degrees Celsius. Due to a lack of heat in residential buildings in November and December in several regions like Andijan, Karakalpakstan, Nukus, Fergana and Khorezm, the population began to attend unauthorized rallies. In 2020, the Ministry of Energy reluctantly admitted that there was a shortage of gas due to depletion of gas fields. On December 16, 2020, the government decided to reduce the export of gas and direct it towards domestic needs. That said, exports were being reduced even earlier than this. In fact, the first reports of the suspension of fuel supplies to other countries appeared in March 2020, when the global COVID-19 pandemic began and the main gas consumer, China, reduced imports from Uzbekistan. In 2021, Uzbekistan once again experienced extremely low air temperatures. Gas exports were again limited. Even though Deputy Chairman of Uzbekneftegaz, Bakhodir Sidikov, said that fuel reserves would last for several decades (in his words, “We have very large, promising areas for geological exploration, but the current approved hydrocarbon reserves will last for 20-30 years”) the coming months proved that these forecasts to be overly optimistic. Soon after, the Ministry of Energy announced that even with limited exports, Uzbekistan lacked about 20 million cubic meters of gas per day. On the night of December 31, 2022, supplies to Uzbekistan from Turkmenistan stopped due to burst gas pipelines. Unusual frosts caused increased gas consumption, resulting in a shortage of fuel for power plants and boiler houses. The country began experiencing long-term power outages, problems with heating, hot water, and gas pressure in homes. Against the backdrop of the emerging energy shortage, the authorities were forced to close gas stations and industrial enterprises in order to distribute the remaining gas to the population and social facilities. And thus, what was already known by many Uzbeks became apparent to the rest of the world. More than half of the gas pipelines in Uzbekistan (45 thousand km) were laid more than...