Our People > Andrei Matveev

Journalist

Andrei Matveev is a journalist from Kazakhstan.

Articles

SCO Summit

Tianjin SCO Summit Signals a Shift: China’s Long Game and the Rise of a New Power Bloc

The notion of a bipolar world, once defined by the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, is being reimagined. At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, signs emerged of a new geopolitical alignment centered around the so-called “Global South.” Chinese President Xi Jinping invoked this framing during the August 31 banquet, positioning the SCO as a counterweight to what he referred to as the “collective West.” According to state news agency Xinhua, Xi expressed confidence that “with the concerted efforts of all parties, the current summit will be a complete success,” and that the SCO would play “an even more significant role” in global affairs. He framed the organization as a mechanism for uniting emerging economies in the Global South and for advancing “human civilization.” Founded in 2001 by six countries, the SCO now includes 10 full members, two observers, and 14 dialogue partners, spanning Asia, Europe, and Africa. “Bringing together major emerging market economies and developing countries such as China, Russia, and India, the SCO represents nearly half of the world’s population and a quarter of the global economy,” Xinhua noted. This framing signals that Beijing sees a new geopolitical pole coalescing around China, Russia, and India, a convergence of financial, technological, and military capacities within the SCO framework. Symbolic Alignments on Display Group photos from the summit offered a symbolic illustration of emerging alignments. In one image preceding the SCO banquet, Xi Jinping stands flanked by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, with other Central Asian leaders, including Shavkat Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan), Emomali Rahmon (Tajikistan), and Sadyr Japarov (Kyrgyzstan), grouped closely behind. Another image, taken before the Council of Heads of State meeting, shows Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi positioned directly behind Tokayev, reflecting the summit’s broader geopolitical weight. Xi and Modi also met one-on-one, where they agreed to define China and India as partners rather than rivals. Xi reportedly called for both countries to “become good neighbors, good friends, and partners who contribute to each other’s success,” referring to the cooperation as a “dragon and elephant pas de deux.” Modi, in turn, employed the term “Global South” during his address to the Council of Heads of State, urging reforms to global institutions such as the United Nations. “Constraining the aspirations of the Global South within an outdated framework is a gross injustice to future generations,” he said. UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who attended the summit, was the implicit target of such reformist appeals. The presence of Tokayev, a former senior UN official, added another layer of diplomatic nuance. Some speculate that Tokayev could be put forward as a future UN Secretary-General by Global South nations. Putin’s Narrative on Ukraine In his address, Putin reiterated a narrative long promoted by the Kremlin regarding the war in Ukraine. He described the conflict not as an invasion, but as the result of a “coup d’état in Ukraine” supported by the West and claimed that NATO’s expansion posed a direct...

11 months ago

SCO Summit

Opinion: China’s Diplomatic Power Play Unfolds in Tianjin

On August 31, the next SCO Plus summit will begin in the Chinese city of Tianjin and run through to September 1. Judging by the list of participants, China, under Chairman Xi Jinping, is positioning itself to challenge the United States for influence over the global geopolitical agenda. As part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, Xi will host a formal banquet for the attending heads of state, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Xi is also scheduled to chair the 25th meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State and lead the expanded SCO Plus session - the largest since the establishment of the organization - where he will deliver a keynote address. Clues to the themes of Xi’s speech can be found in the diverse array of leaders expected to attend. Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Bin confirmed at a Beijing press conference that among the SCO member states, participants will include Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Several leaders from non-member states will also join, including Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh; Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev; Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto; and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, whose participation suggests Ashgabat’s cautious but growing interest in regional dialogue. Also in attendance will be the prime ministers of Armenia (Nikol Pashinyan), Cambodia (Hun Manet), Nepal (Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli), Egypt (Mostafa Madbouly), Malaysia (Anwar Ibrahim), and Vietnam (Pham Minh Chinh). The summit will also host key international institutional leaders, including UN Secretary-General António Guterres; SCO Secretary-General Nurlan Yermekbayev; CIS Secretary-General Sergey Lebedev; ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn; CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov; EAEU Chairman Bakytzhan Sagintayev; and AIIB President Zhou Ji. Kazakhstan will be prominently represented. In addition to President Tokayev, three high-profile Kazakhs mentioned above - Yermekbayev, Tasmagambetov, and Sagintayev - will attend in their capacities as heads of international organizations. Their presence signals Astana’s growing diplomatic weight and reflects the strategic outreach led by Tokayev, himself a former UN Deputy Secretary-General. This background likely contributes to the rapport between Kazakhstan and Guterres. The summit will also inevitably draw attention due to the presence of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders, figures central to the ongoing realignment in the South Caucasus. Both Baku and Yerevan have increasingly distanced themselves from Moscow, favoring closer ties with Turkey and the United States. The recent peace agreement between Aliyev and Pashinyan, signed in the presence of President Trump, underscored the growing American role in the region and the diminishing influence of Russia. While Moscow appears willing to tolerate this shift, Tehran views it with deep concern, especially after its recent 12-day conflict with Israel. Russia, for its part, seems to be signaling disengagement from the region. Its silence in response to Baku and Yerevan’s Western overtures suggests strategic apathy, if not withdrawal. Beijing, of course, is...

11 months ago

Mountaineering

How Climbers Die: The Tragedy of Natalya Nagovitsyna and the Perils of the Peaks

Professional climbers have all but given up hope for Russian mountaineer Natalya Nagovitsyna, who remains stranded on Pobeda Peak (Victory Peak) in the Tien Shan mountains of Kyrgyzstan. No successful evacuation has been recorded from this treacherous summit since 1955. Still, Nagovitsyna’s son continues to hold out hope, citing drone footage taken last week that appeared to show her waving from her tent and still in good spirits. However, on August 27, a military drone captured thermal imaging of conditions on Pobeda Peak, showing no signs of life in Nagovitsyna’s tent, as confirmed in imagery published on the official website of Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security (GKNB). Officially Declared Lost Russian Investigative Committee Chairman Alexander Bastrykin has ordered his office to coordinate with the Ministry of Emergency Situations and submit an operational report regarding Nagovitsyna’s case. However, rescue services have already called off search operations and dismantled the base camp at Pobeda Peak. Alexander Yakovenko, head of the classical mountaineering commission of the Russian Mountaineering Federation, stated: “In reality, there’s no one left to rescue; we can only speak of a body recovery. The climbing season at Victory Peak has ended, and the base camp has been removed.” Yakovenko emphasized that Pobeda Peak is one of the most difficult and dangerous mountains for rescue operations. Since the 1960s, many bodies have been left behind, unreachable due to extreme weather and inaccessible terrain. A Mountain That Does Not Forgive Veteran Russian climber Alexander Shcherbashin recently told reporters that a rescue mission for Nagovitsyna would be logistically impossible. “In my view, survival is unlikely. The ridge is long, and evacuating someone from there typically requires between 8 and 18 people, under varying conditions,” he said. Another experienced mountaineer, Alexander Kirikov, described Pobeda Peak as “a mountain that does not forgive mistakes.” “There are fatal accidents there nearly every year, going back to the late 1950s. I estimate the mountain has claimed over 150 lives,” he noted. Death in the Mountains Mountaineering remains one of the world’s most dangerous sports. On average, 24 out of every 10,000 climbers die annually. Hundreds perish each year in mountain accidents. The highest-risk peaks are the so-called eight-thousanders. Everest (Jomolungma), while the most fatal in absolute numbers, owes its toll to the sheer volume of climbers. The deadliest is Annapurna I in the Himalayas, where the fatality rate approaches 50%. Other notorious peaks include K2 (Chogori, “Savage Mountain”) and Nanga Parbat, dubbed “the man-eater.” The former Soviet Union has no eight-thousanders, but Pobeda Peak is widely recognized as its most dangerous seven-thousander. It was here that Natalya Nagovitsyna’s story unfolded. Tragedy has struck her family before. In 2021, just 16 kilometers away on nearby Khan Tengri, Nagovitsyna’s husband died in her arms after suffering a stroke during their ascent. As her case unfolded this summer, another Russian climber, Alexey Ermakov, died on Khan Tengri. “We passed him on the route; he was climbing up as we were descending,” said Alexey Trubachev, a mountain guide and founder...

11 months ago

Earthquakes

Earthquakes: Is Central Asia Ready for the Next Seismic Event?

In a recent livestream with a Russian nationalist commentator, prominent Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov was asked what threat most concerns Kazakhs today. While his interlocutor expected a geopolitical answer, perhaps Russia’s military might or imperial ambitions, Shibutov’s response reflected a deeply local fear shared by many in Almaty: a devastating earthquake. Given the region’s seismic history, his concern is far from misplaced. A powerful natural disaster could strike a crippling blow to Almaty, Kazakhstan’s economic and cultural heart, and potentially derail the country’s broader development ambitions. A History of Devastation Almaty lies within the Almaty Seismic Zone, a high-risk area in southeastern Kazakhstan known for producing powerful earthquakes. Several historically significant tremors, Vernensky, Keminsky, Kemino-Chuisky (1936), Chiliksky, Sary-Kamyshsky, and Dzhambulsky, were named after their epicenters. The Verny earthquake struck early on May 28 (June 9 in the modern calendar), 1887. Measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale, it destroyed nearly 1,800 stone buildings and over 800 wooden structures. The epicenter was located just 10-12 kilometers south of the city on the northern slope of the Zailiyskiy Alatau, at a depth of about 60 km. The second major disaster, the Kemin earthquake, occurred on December 22, 1910 (January 4, 1911, by modern reckoning). It struck the Chon-Kemin, Chilik, and Chon-Aksu valleys, with a magnitude of 8.2. Tremors lasted for five minutes, followed by strong aftershocks. The epicenter was about 40 km from Verny, in the eastern Zailiyskiy Alatau. On June 21, 1938, another major quake, later named the Kemin-Chui earthquake, originated at the mouth of the Bolshaya Kemin River. Though its epicenter registered between magnitude 8 and 9, public memory of the event is surprisingly faint. In Almaty, the quake struck at around 5 a.m., jolting residents from sleep. Tremors reached magnitude 6, but most people remained calm. Panic in 2024 This was not the case in January and March 2024, when strong tremors triggered widespread panic in Almaty. Some residents jumped from balconies or stairwells, sustaining injuries. Others fled the city in cars, causing major traffic jams. The panic was most pronounced among residents of modern high-rises. Until the 2000s, Almaty had largely avoided such construction due to seismic safety concerns, a principle rooted in Soviet urban planning. Developers now claim modern technologies ensure these buildings can withstand earthquakes but many residents remain unconvinced. This mistrust has sparked public protests against large-scale development projects, including by members of the Mazhilis, Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament. Adding to concerns, Soviet-era buildings have significantly deteriorated. Aging infrastructure, waterlogged basements, and amateur renovations, including the removal of load-bearing walls, have further weakened the housing stock. In the event of a major quake, widespread destruction is likely and experts agree that the national budget alone could not absorb the resulting financial fallout. Is the Kemin Fault Awakening? Following the March 2024 earthquake, seismic expert and former head of Kazakhstan’s seismic monitoring network, Mukhtar Khaidarov, warned that the epicenter may have been in the Kemin fault zone, a possible precursor to a larger quake. His...

11 months ago

Internet

Splitting the Flow: How Central Asia Can Bypass Russia in Internet Connectivity

In today’s world, reliable mobile communications and internet access are indispensable, and Central Asia is no exception. Digital infrastructure has become a core component of development across the region. Yet, the architecture of internet connectivity in Central Asia has been shaped not only by global technological progress but also by the geopolitical upheavals of the early 2020s, a decade already recognized as historically transformative. Recent developments have renewed focus on this issue. On August 13, Kazakhstan officially joined over 100 countries utilizing Starlink’s satellite internet services, following a June 12, 2025, agreement that confirmed SpaceX's compliance with national laws. The Kazakh Ministry of Digital Development emphasized that Starlink offers stable connectivity “even in the most remote and inaccessible areas,” expanding access to digital services for underserved populations. While Starlink’s rates are higher than local norms, 23,000 KZT ($42.50) a month for home users and 26,000 KZT ($48) for mobile users, the launch signals a broader shift in Kazakhstan’s internet policy. For decades, the country maintained strict control over online access. As late as 2019, the authorities blocked social networks during live streams by exiled oligarch Mukhtar Ablyazov. The 2020 pandemic further exposed infrastructure gaps, with students in remote areas forced to climb rooftops and trees for mobile signals. These stark images, along with a gradual political thaw, likely spurred the momentum for reform. Another catalyst is the war in Ukraine. A recent report by the Internet Society highlights Kazakhstan’s efforts to reduce reliance on Russian internet infrastructure and enhance regional digital resilience. Central Asia’s landlocked geography means it depends heavily on terrestrial fiber optic cables connected to countries with undersea landing stations. Approximately 95% of Kazakhstan’s international internet traffic flows through Russia, posing strategic vulnerabilities amid heightened geopolitical tensions. To address this, Kazakhstan is investing in low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems and exploring alternative terrestrial fiber routes, including a long-discussed cable under the Caspian Sea connecting to Europe. As of January 2024, Kazakhstan had 18.2 million internet users, 92.3% of the population, with average fixed-line speeds of 53.86 Mbps, ranking 94th globally, according to Ookla’s Speedtest Index. Uzbekistan Follows Suit Uzbekistan, the region’s second-largest economy, is also seeking to diversify its digital dependencies. In March 2025, Tashkent signed agreements with the European Union on a satellite internet project and the “Connectivity for Central Asia” program, both aimed at extending access to remote communities and modernizing digital infrastructure. These initiatives are part of the EU’s Global Gateway strategy. “By investing in digital connectivity, we are bridging gaps, creating opportunities, and ensuring that Central Asia has access to the benefits of the digital economy,” said European Commissioner for International Partnerships, Jutta Urpilainen. As of early 2024, Uzbekistan had 34.2 million mobile subscribers and 29.5 million internet users, an 83.3% penetration rate. Basic fixed-line internet packages cost 55,000 UZS ($4.40) per month for 6 Mbps daytime speeds; premium plans offer 50 Mbps for about $8. As reported by The Times of Central Asia, Starlink is expected to launch in Uzbekistan in 2026....

11 months ago

Kashagan

Kazakhstan Presses Oil Giants as Kashagan Revenues Face Scrutiny

The media in Kazakhstan is once again debating the revision of production sharing agreements (PSAs) with foreign companies in the country’s major oil consortia. PSA LLP, the state-owned operator authorized by the Ministry of Energy to represent Kazakhstan’s interests in the North Caspian Production Sharing Agreement, has released new data on revenues from the Kashagan field, information expected to reignite calls to amend agreements with major Western oil producers in Kazakhstan’s favor. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has publicly backed the discussion. In January, he instructed the government to intensify negotiations with foreign investors. "The implementation of production-sharing agreements for large fields has allowed Kazakhstan to become a reliable supplier of energy to the global market. These projects have made a great contribution to the country’s socio-economic development. However, large investments require a long-term planning horizon. Therefore, the government must intensify negotiations on extending PSA contracts, possibly on revised terms that are more favorable for Kazakhstan,” Tokayev said at an expanded government meeting. The PSA company, headed by Tokayev’s nephew, Beket Izbastin, reported that in 2024, the Kashagan consortium’s total revenue from oil, gas, and sulfur sales exceeded $11 billion. Of this, 80% covered capital and operating costs (“Cost Oil”), while only 20% came from “Profit Oil,” amounting to $2.2 billion. Kazakhstan’s share was 10%, or $220 million. Including the $430 million in taxes paid by the operator, NCOC, the country’s total revenue was $650 million. “With revenues of $11 billion, the republic’s share, including taxes, was only 6%, the lowest among oil companies not only in Kazakhstan but globally,” PSA said. Under the current terms, Kazakhstan’s share of Profit Oil will not increase until three billion barrels have been extracted from Kashagan. Only the first billion has been produced over the past decade. Shareholders are expected to begin paying a 30% income tax soon; KazMunayGas has already transferred an initial $45 million payment from the Kashagan profits. The fairness of this revenue distribution is now a central point of debate. Some observers believe the renewed focus ahead of the next parliamentary session could signal that Tokayev will again raise the issue in his annual address, alongside agreements for Karachaganak and Tengiz, the other pillars of Kazakhstan’s oil sector. Tengiz operates under a contract expiring in 2033, earlier than Karachaganak (2037) and Kashagan (2041). At his press conference in Astana last month, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov confirmed that negotiations with major oil companies had only just begun. “Indeed, there is a view that the country’s interests are significantly infringed upon. We are starting negotiations with our consortium partners to conclude new PSAs for a new period. This will be done in a measured and balanced manner, without sudden moves, while defending the national interests of our country,” Bektenov stated. The question of what exactly constitutes “national interests” remains open. In February, Mazhilis deputy Edil Zhanbirshin linked the issue to Kazakhstan’s dependence on imported fuel. Despite the $3.7 billion spent on modernizing the country’s three oil refineries, annual processing volumes remain below 18...

11 months ago

Urban Legends

Shadows over the Trails: Mystical Legends of the Almaty Mountains

The mountains surrounding Almaty captivate not only with their natural beauty and fresh alpine air but also with the legends that echo along their winding trails. Travelers speak of a ghostly woman in white, a towering old man with a chessboard, and a mysterious "Japanese Road" haunted by the spirits of the past. The vistas are breathtaking, yet around every turn, a chilling tale may be waiting. Urban legends have become integral to the cultural fabric of the Almaty region, shaped by the imaginations of hikers and storytellers alike. But could there be a grain of truth behind these supernatural accounts? The Almarasanian Maiden Most Almaty residents are introduced to local folklore during childhood, particularly during overnight camps in the mountain foothills. Beneath the star-strewn sky and beside crackling campfires, counselors often begin the night's stories with: “Have you heard the tale of the Almarasanian Maiden?” The best-known legend describes a spectral woman dressed in white, appearing along treacherous mountain passes. But older residents tell a more detailed and tragic version. According to this tale, a woman once abandoned by her husband in the Zailiyskiy Alatau mountains was driven to madness. In her grief, she killed her two sons, hanging them from birch trees before taking her own life on a third. Struck by lightning but not destroyed, the three birches remain: two standing strong, the third broken but alive. Climbers later erected two crosses beneath them in remembrance. Since then, sightings of the woman in white have persisted. She is said to either warn travelers of danger or exact vengeance on those who betray loved ones. Though the story may sound fantastical, real-life tragedies have kept the legend alive. In May 2025, a rockfall in the Alma-Arasan Gorge killed a young woman and led to the trail’s temporary closure for reconstruction. In 2009, 11 people died in a horrific accident when a truck collided with a bus stop. While the official cause was listed as a heart attack suffered by the driver, witnesses reported that he remained conscious and tried to steer the vehicle moments before impact. His widow later stated that he had no history of heart problems. The Japanese Road After Japan’s defeat in Manchuria in 1945, many prisoners of war were sent to labor camps across the Soviet Union, including Kazakhstan. In Almaty, they constructed what is now known as the Japanese Road. Built under harsh conditions, the road was originally part of a water supply system connecting Big Almaty Lake to the city. Modern hikers report an eerie atmosphere. Some claim to see ghostly figures, presumed to be the spirits of those who died building the road. These apparitions are seen as ill omens, urging visitors to leave before nightfall. The White Old Man Among the most curious legends is that of a ghostly, two-meter-tall old man with a flowing beard, who carries a chessboard. He appears to hikers and shepherds, silently inviting them to play. Refusing is said to bring bad luck or worse....

11 months ago

Geopolitics

Opinion: Why Russia May Stop Oil Supplies via the CPC

The global confrontation between the West and East could, quite literally, devastate the economies of Central Asian countries in the near future. Some experts argue that the position Kazakhstan and its regional neighbors now occupy, four years into the war between Russia and Ukraine, has spiraled beyond anyone’s control. The disruption began with Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure used by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which indirectly impacted oil flows from Kazakhstan to Europe. On August 2, several media outlets, citing sources within the Ukrainian military, reported an attack on the Central Asia-Center (SAC) gas pipeline running through Kazakhstan. The attack allegedly caused an indefinite halt in gas deliveries that Russia had been sending in reverse flow to Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan also uses this gas domestically. Shortly after, the energy ministries of both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan denied reports of any damage to the pipeline. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s classification of the SAC pipeline as a legitimate target remains on record. Notably, although Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry has issued a formal protest to Kyiv over the CPC attacks, it has yet to reveal any official response from the Ukrainian side. Kazakhstan thus finds itself in an extremely vulnerable position: its national budget is heavily dependent on oil exports, while its southern infrastructure increasingly relies on imported gas. For example, the planned conversion of Almaty’s TPP-2 to gas is unfeasible without stable fuel supplies. In other words, Kazakhstan has become fully dependent on developments in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Compounding the geopolitical tension, U.S. President Donald Trump has pursued an aggressive and often unpredictable foreign policy approach. He has threatened sanctions against Russia’s economic partners if they continue buying oil from President Vladimir Putin. This pressure is primarily directed at China and India, both of which have already signaled they do not intend to comply with Trump’s ultimatum. In response, Russia may adopt symmetrical countermeasures targeting American companies, specifically, by halting oil flows via the CPC. That’s the view of JPMorgan analysts, who suggest that such a move could drive global oil prices up to $80 per barrel. This would benefit Russia but would deal a serious blow to Kazakhstan, which relies on CPC to export up to a million barrels of oil per day. Unfortunately, Kazakhstan lacks viable alternatives. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, often cited as a backup route, depends heavily on Caspian Sea shipping, which is increasingly hindered by shallow waters. Heavier oil barges dispatched from Aktau to Baku risk running aground. As a result, Kazakhstan's oil volume transported via BTC is expected to increase by only 300,000 tons this year, from 1.4 to 1.7 million tons. It's worth noting that CPC exports oil produced by American firms Exxon and Chevron, the British company Shell, Italy's ENI, and France’s TotalEnergies. These are the very firms Russia could target in retaliation. As Trump’s statements deepen the appearance of a Russia-versus-West conflict, energy infrastructure could increasingly become a battlefield. Hints of Moscow’s readiness to act have already emerged. In mid-July, President Putin signed a decree mandating...

11 months ago

Kazakhstan-Turkey Partnership

Kazakhstan and Turkey Tighten Ties Amid Shifting Caspian Dynamics

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Turkey on an official visit late on Monday, where he held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The two leaders went on to co-chair the fifth meeting of the Kazakhstan–Turkey High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council. Coming amid heightened tensions in the Caspian region, particularly between Russia and Azerbaijan, the trip appears aimed at recalibrating regional dynamics, though analysts say its full implications remain unclear. Tokayev’s visit ended on a ceremonial high, as Erdoğan bestowed upon him the Devlet Nişanı, Turkey’s highest state honor. Accepting the award, Tokayev — who noted he had previously declined both domestic and foreign distinctions — thanked the Turkish president and people, highlighting Kazakhstan’s political and economic achievements. Erdoğan, in turn, praised Kazakhstan as the “center of peace and stability in its region.” Yet with Kazakhstan straddling both Central Asia and the Caspian basin — each a strategic priority for Ankara — it remains unclear which “region” Erdoğan had in mind. Much of the visit, however, played out behind closed doors. The official press release offered only general statements and few specifics. But the images released were polished and plentiful. Ahead of the summit, Tokayev met with prominent Turkish business leaders already active in Kazakhstan or planning future investments in the country’s economy. Political analyst Adil Kaukenov, a China specialist, weighed in on Tokayev’s business meetings via his Telegram channel, stating that the main topics were processing and logistics. His colleague Daniyar Ashimbayev, meanwhile, interpreted the visit as evidence that Astana is pursuing the foreign policy course it deems necessary. “I have already written about the logistical and geopolitical rivalry between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Asia Minor,” Ashimbayev observed. “A strange situation even arose when Kazakhstan signed one agreement on the Trans-Afghan Highway with Kabul, and Tashkent signed another. Or the constant discussion between Tashkent and Baku on the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor without the participation of Ashgabat and Astana. Tensions have risen in relations between Baku and Moscow, which could jeopardize Caspian logistics. Against this backdrop, the Kazakh authorities are methodically pushing through their agenda.” Ashimbayev also recalled Kazakhstan’s recent diplomatic successes, such as securing EU sanctions exemptions for agricultural and coal exports. “In this regard, Tokayev’s trip to Ankara was intended to resolve possible contradictions and misunderstandings in bilateral relations,” Ashimbayev concluded. While official sources emphasized economic and cultural-humanitarian cooperation as the main themes of the visit, Ashimbayev hinted that more sensitive topics may have been discussed privately. “The Turkish release mentions that the parties discussed defense issues, while the Kazakh release says they talked about IT,” he noted. “But by and large, the meaning of the talks is that both leaders calmly sorted out mutual issues, with no one acting as a supplicant or ‘vassal’ (as is sometimes the case at similar meetings). Kazakhstan methodically focused on the issues of interest to it and correctly discussed the issues raised by the host of the summit.” A closer analysis of publications on Akorda, the Kazakh presidential...

12 months ago

Caspian Sea

Opinion: A Sea of Discord? Intensifying Military Drills Threaten Stability in the Caspian Region

On Monday, Russia and Iran launched joint military exercises in the Caspian Sea under the banner “Together for a Safe and Secure Caspian Sea.” Officially, the drills aim to enhance maritime security and naval cooperation between the two countries and are being coordinated by Iran’s Northern Fleet. While such exercises might once have passed without much notice, their timing and frequency reflect a shifting dynamic: the Caspian region is rapidly emerging as a potential hotspot in global geopolitics. Just one month prior, the same waters hosted joint military exercises between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, held in Aktau, western Kazakhstan. These were followed by the “Tarlan-2025” air and tactical drills in Azerbaijan from July 8-10, which focused on enhancing UAV operations and military coordination. Baku’s strategic alliance with Ankara is a key factor here. Azerbaijan, a close Turkish partner, is now engaged in a more strained relationship with Russia. Moscow’s muted reaction to this cooling suggests an awareness that Ankara is increasingly shaping a Turkic military-political bloc, an emerging force in a region of strategic importance to both Russia and China. Earlier this month, Turkey launched its annual Anadolu-2025 special forces exercises. Participants included troops from 33 nations, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and others but notably excluded Russia. For the first time, in 2024, military exercises were held in the Caspian without Russian involvement. The Birleistik (Unity) 2024 drills were conducted at Kazakhstan’s Oymasha training ground and Cape Tokmak along the Caspian coast. Troops from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan rehearsed scenarios including conflict zone identification, night maritime operations, and amphibious landings. Previously, regional military cooperation had been limited to bilateral engagements, such as the 2023 UZAZ exercises (Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan), Kanzhar-2023 (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan), and Hazri-2023 (Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan). The spike in joint drills during 2024-2025 underscores growing rivalries between regional and global powers. These operations are not mere formalities but reveal emerging security alignments and geopolitical signals. Three distinct blocs appear to be coalescing in the Caspian, with implications for Central Asia as well. The first bloc includes Russia, Iran, and China. These nations have held annual “Maritime Security Belt” exercises since 2019, with the most recent in March 2025 off the Iranian coast. The second bloc comprises Turkey, Azerbaijan, and members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Defense ties among these countries are becoming a core element of OTS cooperation. At the 10th OTS Summit in Astana in 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized defense as the main guarantor of member state security, citing ongoing regional conflicts and violations of international law. The third bloc, more pragmatic and focused, is the Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan partnership. These countries are cooperating on the basis of the 2018 Caspian Convention to secure maritime communications. Azerbaijan contributes military expertise, particularly in UAV and drone warfare developed during the Karabakh conflicts. Kazakhstan brings diplomatic credibility and promotes regional governance and connectivity, offering a stabilizing complement to Azerbaijan’s military strengths. In sum, the Caspian Sea, once colloquially referred to as “Russia’s lake”, is steadily losing that identity. It is transforming into...

12 months ago

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