Our People > Stephen M. Bland

Stephen M. Bland

Managing Editor and Head of Investigations

Stephen M. Bland is a journalist, author, editor, commentator, and researcher specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Prior to joining The Times of Central Asia, he worked for NGOs, think tanks, as the Central Asia expert on a forthcoming documentary series, for the BBC, The Diplomat, EurasiaNet, and numerous other publications.

His award-winning book on Central Asia was published in 2016, and he is currently putting the finishing touches to a book about the Caucasus.

Articles

Trump Administration

Turkmenistan Included as Trump Tightens U.S. Immigration Ban After D.C. Shooting

President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping crackdown on immigration following a deadly shooting near the White House this week, placing new scrutiny on immigrants from certain countries – including Turkmenistan. Trump vowed to “permanently pause migration” from what he called “Third World” countries after two National Guard members were shot in Washington, D.C., one of them fatally. In response, U.S. immigration authorities are re-examining green cards and visa approvals for people from 19 countries deemed “countries of concern,” a list that features Turkmenistan alongside nations in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. New Immigration Review Follows D.C. Attack The policy shift comes in the wake of an ambush-style attack on Wednesday in which an Afghan national allegedly opened fire on U.S. service members outside the White House. Army Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, 20, died from her injuries, and another Guardsman was critically wounded. Authorities arrested Rahmanullah Lakanwal, a 29-year-old Afghan man who arrived in the U.S. in 2021, as the suspect. Trump condemned the shooting as “an act of terror” and highlighted that the suspect entered under a Biden-era Afghan resettlement program. By Thursday, Trump directed U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to conduct a “full-scale, rigorous reexamination” of all current green card holders from every “country of concern.” USCIS Director Joseph Edlow said the review was ordered “at the direction of the President” and stressed that “American lives come first.” When pressed on which nations fall under the “countries of concern,” USCIS officials pointed to Trump’s June 4, 2025, presidential proclamation on foreign entry restrictions, which identified 19 countries with deficient security vetting or high visa overstay rates. It imposed a full travel ban on 12 nations and partial visa bans on 7 others. Turkmenistan’s Status in Trump’s Travel Ban Turkmenistan is one of seven countries under partial U.S. travel restrictions, meaning certain visa categories for Turkmen nationals have currently been suspended or tightened. According to the Trump administration, Turkmenistan was flagged due to security screening gaps and a high rate of U.S. visa overstays by its citizens. U.S. officials noted that about 15.35% of Turkmen visitors on tourist visas overstayed their permitted time in recent years. Turkmenistan has also been cited for limited cooperation on repatriating its citizens who are deported from the U.S. Under the June proclamation, Turkmen nationals were barred from obtaining immigrant visas or tourist and student visas for the U.S., though other travel may be allowed on a case-by-case basis. By invoking what he called a “permanent pause” on migration, Trump signaled that even more sweeping immigration restrictions could be ahead. He wrote on social media that anyone who is “not a net asset to the United States, or is incapable of loving our Country” will be removed. For Turkmenistan, inclusion in the U.S. ban list marks a rare spotlight on the country in American immigration policy. Turkmenistan, where emigration is tightly controlled, sees low numbers of its citizens entering the U.S. Department of Homeland Security data for Fiscal Year 2023 indicates that the...

2 weeks ago

CSTO

CSTO Signs New Security Roadmap in Bishkek Amid Armenia Boycott and Putin Ukraine Remarks

The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) reaffirmed its commitment to regional security and political coordination during its annual summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on November 27. Leaders from five of the bloc’s six members - Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan - attended the event and signed off on a series of military, security, and strategic cooperation agreements. Armenia, the sixth CSTO member, boycotted the summit for the second year running, continuing its protest against the alliance’s refusal to intervene during Armenia’s conflict with Azerbaijan, and marking another low in Armenia’s engagement with the CSTO after months of public grievances against the bloc. Despite Yerevan’s absence, the other members adopted a wide-ranging joint declaration reaffirming the alliance’s collective defense commitments and outlining new initiatives to modernize its security framework. Notably, Armenia did not oppose the adoption of the summit documents in its absence. The CSTO, founded in 2002 and led by Russia, has a charter that guarantees mutual defense among members, though the bloc has often struggled to act decisively during regional crises. Still, it remains the only formal security alliance connecting Russia with post-Soviet Central Asian republics. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov hosted the summit, marking the end of his country’s chairmanship. Japarov handed over the role to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who announced that Russia will lead the CSTO in 2026 under the motto “Collective Security in a Multipolar World: Common Goal—Shared Responsibility.” The bloc also appointed Kyrgyzstan’s Taalatbek Masadykov as the next Secretary General. The former deputy head of Kyrgyzstan’s Security Council will begin his three-year term on January 1, 2026. In remarks during the summit, Putin also addressed global concerns about the war in Ukraine, stating that a 28-point peace plan proposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump could serve as a “basis for future agreements.” He added that Russia has no intention of attacking Europe, seeking to dispel fears of escalation while reaffirming Moscow’s security agenda. The summit ended with the adoption of a large number of documents. Among them were a strategy to combat drug trafficking and plans to improve border security, peacekeeping readiness, and anti-terrorism efforts. Russia used the summit to offer CSTO members a rearmament initiative. Putin proposed supplying allies with modern Russian-made weapons that had “proven their effectiveness” in recent conflicts. The offer included expanded cooperation in joint production and training. Military exercises will continue under the newly adopted five-year cooperation plan. In 2025, the CSTO held drills in Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Tajikistan under the banner “Indestructible Brotherhood.” The plan outlines regular future training, integration of air defense units, and enhancements to peacekeeping logistics. The alliance also adopted an Anti-Drug Strategy for 2026–2030 and signed a joint resolution to intensify Operation “Kanal,” which targets drug routes through Central Asia. The CSTO committed to upgrading its counterterrorism strategy and enhancing cyber defense capabilities, with Russia proposing broader coordination on information security and biosecurity. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, meanwhile, used the summit to urge partners to accelerate border security aid along Tajikistan’s porous southern frontier...

3 weeks ago

COP30

From Glaciers to Green Goals: Central Asia at COP30

The UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, concluded with a hard-fought global deal that boosts climate finance for developing countries but avoids any promise to phase out fossil fuels. Amid this uneasy compromise, the Central Asian nations worked to get their priorities heard. Their delegations pressed for more climate funding, recognition of their unique vulnerabilities, and support for regional initiatives, with mixed results. A United Regional Voice on Climate Home to over 80 million people, Central Asia entered COP30 with a goal outlined as “five countries, one voice,” after a regional dialogue in Dushanbe ahead of the summit forged a common stance on shared threats such as melting glaciers and water stress. The region has already warmed about 2.2 °C – faster than the global average – and glaciers are shrinking by roughly 0.5% each year, Uzbekistan’s environment minister Aziz Abdukhakimov warned in Belém. He noted worsening land degradation and vanishing water resources, underscoring Central Asia’s acute climate vulnerability. In response, Uzbekistan unveiled a new pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2035 (from 2010 levels) by expanding renewable energy and forests. Such actions align with COP30’s call for developed nations to triple adaptation finance by 2035 to help vulnerable countries cope. “COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in his closing speech, praising delegates for persisting despite global divisions. National Commitments and Initiatives Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy and emitter, took on a visible role at COP30. Its delegation was led by Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev, who addressed the summit’s opening session. Nyssanbayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to the Paris Agreement goals, noting the country has adopted a “Revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and a National Adaptation Plan” with more ambitious targets to cut emissions and bolster resilience. “It is crucial for us to consistently work toward achieving our climate goals,” he stated. Nyssanbayev emphasized the importance of climate finance for developing countries, highlighting the new “Baku–Belém Roadmap” to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and urging support for a significantly increased funding mechanism. Kazakhstan also became one of only seven nations – and the sole Central Asian country – to sign a joint declaration pledging “near zero” methane emissions from its fossil fuel sector. In a sign of ongoing regional leadership, Nyssanbayev invited all delegates to attend a Central Asia Regional Environmental Summit that Kazakhstan will host in 2026, aiming to sustain climate cooperation beyond COP30. Kyrgyzstan, given its geography, used the summit to champion the mountain agenda and the plight of high-altitude communities on the frontlines of climate change. The Kyrgyz Republic chairs the UNFCCC’s Mountain Group and sent a delegation led by Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Edil Baisalov, and Dinara Kemelova, the President’s Special Representative for the Mountain Agenda. In the first week of COP30, Kemelova delivered keynote remarks at multiple high-level sessions, calling for strengthened international support and...

3 weeks ago

Strategic Partnership

Kazakhstan and Armenia Forge Strategic Partnership in Landmark Summit

Kazakhstan and Armenia have upgraded their relations to a strategic partnership after high-level talks between President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Astana on 21 November. The decision was sealed in a joint statement and framed as the start of a new phase in cooperation between the two Eurasian partners. During the official visit, the two sides exchanged 15 intergovernmental and interagency documents. These cover the protection of classified information, land for diplomatic missions, a trade and economic roadmap for 2026–2030, and cooperation in industry, agriculture, healthcare, science, education, digitalization, and the peaceful use of atomic energy, as well as new links between national museums, libraries, and film institutions. A Kazakhstan–Armenia Business Council was also created to bring companies into the process. Tokayev underlined the political meaning of the upgrade, stating that an “open and trusting political dialogue has been established between Astana and Yerevan at all levels. Interstate ties are truly constructive, with significant potential for their comprehensive strengthening and expansion.” Pashinyan, meanwhile, stressed the human dimension, noting that “we respect the Kazakh people, and this respect is the foundation for the further development of bilateral relations.” Their meeting builds on Tokayev’s official visit to Yerevan in April 2024, when the two governments first drew a roadmap for closer ties. Symbolism played a significant role in the visit, with Tokayev awarding Pashinyan the Order of Altyn Qyran (Golden Eagle), Kazakhstan’s highest state honor, in recognition of his role in Armenia’s development, regional peace efforts, and bilateral relations. This year, Yerevan has hosted the Days of Kazakhstan Culture and opened a park named after the Kazakh poet, Abai, while Kazakhstan has promoted Armenia’s cultural presence at events and academic centers, helping anchor the relationship beyond government channels. [caption id="attachment_39747" align="aligncenter" width="900"] Image: Akorda.kz[/caption] The strategic label is the high point of more than three decades of diplomatic relations. Armenia and Kazakhstan first established ties in August 1992, and shortly opened embassies in each other’s capitals. A Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation was signed in Astana in September 1999. Both are members of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which lends their interaction a dense multilateral framework. Now, trade and connectivity are catching up with political rhetoric, with both sides eyeing room to expand. According to Armenia’s economy minister, bilateral trade reached $104 million in 2023, up 2.4 times from 2020, with Armenian exports making up more than two-thirds of the total. Kazakh figures, meanwhile, show mutual trade rising but still at a modest $53.1 million by the end of 2023, partly due to the lack of rail links and past transit restrictions in the South Caucasus. Those obstacles, however, are beginning to ease. In October, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev lifted restrictions on transit to Armenia, which allowed the first shipment of 1,000 tons of Kazakh wheat to reach Armenian markets via Azerbaijani territory in November. Kazakhstan and Armenia also plan to launch direct air links and expand air cargo, a step Tokayev has called...

4 weeks ago

Unrest

Chinese-Kyrgyz Tensions Flare After Brawl at Construction Site

A roadside quarrel between Kyrgyz and Chinese workers in northern Kyrgyzstan escalated into a mass brawl, exposing simmering anti-Chinese sentiment in the Central Asian country. The fight broke out on November 15 in the village of Konstantinovka, Chui province, after a dispute over which truck had the right of way on a narrow road. Dozens of construction workers from both sides were involved. Police detained 16 people and brought in another 44 – including several Chinese nationals – for questioning. One Kyrgyz worker was hospitalized with head injuries, suffering a concussion and multiple bruises. Authorities quickly launched an investigation into the incident, and officials urged the public to refrain from spreading unverified rumors about the clash. The altercation reportedly involved drivers from two road construction companies – the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and a local subcontractor, Zhongzi, with what began as a minor traffic argument at a quarry site spiraling into physical violence. Videos of police detaining the brawlers later surfaced online, igniting a broader outcry. The timing of the fracas raised alarms in Bishkek, coming just two weeks before Kyrgyzstan’s scheduled November 30 parliamentary elections and only days ahead of an official visit by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on November 19. The authorities have moved to contain the fallout from the brawl before it can inflame any further anti-Chinese backlash. Election Provocation Claims President Sadyr Japarov was quick to downplay the confrontation and warn against politicizing it. Speaking to the state news agency Kabar, Japarov argued that such scuffles, while unfortunate, should not be blown out of proportion or framed as an international issue. “Anything can happen in life. In Bishkek, two Kyrgyz can quarrel and fight on the street - we see this on social media. But such everyday conflicts should not be elevated to the level of interstate problems,” Japarov said. “We know who they are. For now, we are just watching. If they cross the line, they will be arrested. And then they’ll start shouting that they were ‘detained for no reason.’ They have no other topics - only electricity and the Chinese.” Other officials echoed Japarov’s call for calm, with Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev dismissing claims that Chinese laborers are “flooding” Kyrgyzstan and stealing local jobs. “Chinese citizens are working on the basis of work visas. We have a visa regime. When their visa expires, they leave,” Kulubaev said, urging the public not to exaggerate the issue. Deputy Prime Minister Edil Baysalov posted on social media that "such provocations do not arise on their own. Their goal is to weaken and possibly derail the country's economic strengthening, undermine our growing international authority, and ultimately strike a blow to Kyrgyzstan's statehood itself." Daiyrbek Orunbekov, a spokesman from the president’s office, similarly wrote on Facebook that “conflicts happen wherever there are people – it doesn’t depend on ethnicity or race,” pointing out that over 1.5 million Kyrgyz citizens work abroad and sometimes get into fights as well. “Don’t be misled by provocateurs,” Orunbekov cautioned, suggesting the brawl was being exploited by...

4 weeks ago

History

The Ruthless History of the Great Game in Central Asia

In the so-called New Great Game, Central Asia is no longer a mere backdrop; with its strategic location, massive oil and gas reserves, and newfound deposits of critical raw materials, it’s a key player. In stark contrast to events in the 19th century, this time, Central Asia finds itself courted by four great powers - China, the EU, the U.S., and Russia - instead of caught in the crosshairs of conquest. The region finds itself with agency. However, the original Great Game was anything but fair play. Comprising vast steppes, nomadic horsemen, descendants of Genghis Khan’s Great Horde, and a lone nation of Persians, during the 19th century, the once-thriving Silk Road states became entangled in a high-stakes battle of expansion and espionage between Britain and Russia. Afghanistan became the buffer zone, while the rest of the region fell under Russian control, vanishing behind what became known as the “Iron Curtain” for almost a century. The term “Great Game” was first coined by British intelligence officer Arthur Conolly in the 19th century, during his travels through the fiercely contested region between the Caucasus and the Khyber. He used it in a letter to describe the geopolitical chessboard unfolding before him. While Conolly introduced the idea, it was Rudyard Kipling who made it famous in his 1904 novel Kim, depicting the contest as the epic power clash between Tsarist Russia and the British Empire over India. Conolly’s reports impressed both Calcutta and London, highlighting Afghanistan’s strategic importance. Britain pledged to win over Afghan leaders — through diplomacy, if possible, and by force, if necessary. The Afghan rulers found themselves caught in a barrage of imperial ambition, as the British and Russian Empires played on their vulnerabilities to serve their own strategic goals. Former Ambassador Sergio Romano summed it up perfectly in I Luoghi della Storia: "The Afghans spent much of the 19th century locked in a diplomatic and military chess match with the great powers — the infamous 'Great Game,' where the key move was turning the Russians against the Brits and the Brits against the Russians." The Great Game can be said to have been initiated on January 12, 1830, when Lord Ellenborough, President of the Board of Control for India, instructed Lord William Bentinck, the Governor-General, to create a new trade route to the Emirate of Bukhara. Britain aimed to dominate Afghanistan, turning it into a protectorate, while using the Ottoman Empire, Persian Empire, Khanate of Khiva, and Emirate of Bukhara as buffer states. This strategy was designed to safeguard India and key British sea trade routes, blocking Russia from accessing the Persian Gulf or the Indian Ocean. Russia countered by proposing Afghanistan as a neutral zone. The ensuing conflicts included the disastrous First Anglo-Afghan War (1838), the First Anglo-Sikh War (1845), the Second Anglo-Sikh War (1848), the Second Anglo-Afghan War (1878), and Russia’s annexation of Kokand. At the start of the Central Asian power struggle, both Britain and Russia had scant knowledge of the region's people, terrain, or...

8 months ago

Economic Cooperation

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan Implement Free Trade Agreement

On February 25, 2025, the free trade agreement between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan officially came into effect, eliminating customs duties on most goods produced in both countries, with certain exceptions. This landmark move aims to strengthen trade and economic ties between the two neighbors. The announcement was made by Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Investments, Industry, and Trade on March 7, following the completion of all legal procedures for the Protocol on Exceptions to the Free Trade Regime, signed on July 16, 2024. The protocol had been approved earlier by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev through Resolution No. 29 on January 27, 2025. Key Provisions and Economic Sectors Under the new trade rules, Turkmenistan has removed customs duties on a range of key Uzbek exports, including the following items with their previous tariffs or taxes noted: Cement (100%) Textiles (50%) Furniture (50%) Glass containers (50%) Water heating boilers (15%) Plastic and polypropylene products (10%) Sausages and meat products ($2 per kg) Cottonseed oil ($1 per kg) Officials anticipate that the free trade system will boost economic activity between the two countries by facilitating business operations and encouraging investment. The Uzbek Ministry of Investments, Industry, and Trade, along with other government bodies, is working to help Uzbek businesses maximize the benefits of the new trade framework, whilst both governments expect the deal to accelerate industrial cooperation across sectors such as construction, agriculture, and manufacturing. Growing Trade Volume or a One-Way Street? The agreement reflects already expanding trade dynamics. According to TurkmenPortal, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan increased by 23% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $455 million. Turkmen exports to Uzbekistan surged by 36%, totaling $407 million. Turkmenistan's imports from Uzbekistan experienced a 30% decline, however, dropping from $69.2 million to $48 million during the January- May period compared to the same timeframe in 2023. Strengthened Bilateral Relations and Regional Impact Nevertheless, the agreement represents more than economic policy and could underscore a new era of trust and cooperation. Both countries have worked to improve their relationship through proactive diplomacy, with recent high-level meetings - including those between Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov - emphasizing the shared goal of collaborating across trade, cultural, and political spheres. The free trade regime sets a benchmark for greater economic collaboration within Central Asia, whilst the elimination of tariffs and smoother trade between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan could inspire similar agreements among neighboring countries. While challenges such as infrastructure harmonization and policy alignment remain, the benefits of this agreement showcase the potential for regional integration.

9 months ago

Justice

Riot in Tajik Prison Leaves Several Inmates Dead

On February 3, a riot broke out in Tajikistan's Vahdat Penitentiary No. 3/2, 15 miles from Dushanbe, resulting in the deaths of several prisoners. According to Tajikistan’s Ministry of Justice, the incident occurred when nine inmates - convicted over links to Islamic State and the Jihadi Salafi movement - launched an armed attack on prison staff using improvised weapons. “As a result of the attack, three guards were seriously injured,” the ministry’s statement said. The prisoners, armed with makeshift knives, refused to comply with prison authorities and attempted to kill security personnel in an escape attempt. According to the authorities, the prison guards responded with firearms, killing three of the attackers and detaining the others. The injured staff members received medical treatment and were reported to be in stable condition. Authorities also confirmed that security at the facility has been fully restored. While official reports initially listed three inmate fatalities, some sources suggest that the actual number of prisoner deaths may be higher. Condemning the treatment of detainees by officials at the prison, the Civil Committee for the Rescue of Hostages and Political Prisoners of Tajikistan (CCHP) stated that “at least 10 prisoners were killed and a number were injured as a result of guards shooting at prisoners.” Despite reports that the detainees had briefly raised the Islamic State flag over the prison, CCHP claimed that those killed were political prisoners who had no connection to ISIS or any other banned group. History of Prison Riots in Tajikistan This is not the first violent uprising within Tajikistan’s penitentiary system. In May 2019, inmates in the same facility armed with knives took three staff members hostage and killed them. They also executed five fellow prisoners before security forces suppressed the riot. Among those killed was Behruz Halimov, son of Gulmurod Halimov, a former Tajik special forces officer who later joined ISIS. The riot left 29 prisoners dead, and Tajikistan’s Supreme Court subsequently increased the sentences of 28 convicts involved in the incident. ISIS claimed responsibility for the riot. In November 2018, a similar riot occurred in a high-security prison in Khujand, where 21 inmates and two prison staff members were killed. Five guards were also injured. Following an investigation, 33 prisoners stood trial, and nine prison officials, including the warden, received prison sentences for negligence. Broader Security Concerns In recent years, Tajikistan has witnessed numerous escape attempts from detention facilities, though nearly all have ended in failure. Most escape organizers have either been killed during apprehension or recaptured. These recurring incidents highlight ongoing security challenges within the country’s prison system and underscore the need for further reforms to prevent future outbreaks of violence.

10 months ago

Aktau Plane Crash

Aliyev Takes Aim at Russia in Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has intensified his criticism of Russia, accusing it of a “cover-up” over the Azerbaijan Airlines plane which crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. During a televised address, Aliyev expressed Azerbaijan’s “surprise, regret, and righteous indignation” over what he described as “absurd” explanations for the crash. Departing from protocol, Aliyev delivered his address in Russian, a poignant choice that heightened the gravity of his message. “I can confidently say that the guilt for the deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in this accident lies with the representatives of the Russian Federation,” Aliyev stated. “We demand justice, we demand punishment of the guilty, we demand complete transparency and humane treatment… If the city of Grozny had taken timely measures to close Russian airspace over its territory, if all the rules of ground services had been observed, and if there had been coordination between the armed forces and civil services of the Russian Federation, then this tragedy would not have happened.” On Monday, Aliyev met with the two surviving flight attendants and the families of other crew members who perished, describing them as “heroes”. The Flight Recorders In a related development, Brazil has concluded its analysis of the black boxes from Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243. The Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA) confirmed that the findings were handed over to Kazakhstan’s Aviation Accident Investigation Department in line with international protocols for aircraft accident investigations. These results will contribute to the final report on the incident. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia (TCA), the incident led the Commission on Aviation Incident Investigation, headed by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, to decide to send the flight recorders to Brazil’s CENIPA. The investigation was conducted by three Brazilian specialists in collaboration with Azerbaijani and Russian experts. Chronology of the Crash The incident occurred on December 25, when an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near Aktau on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast. The plane was flying between Baku, Azerbaijan, and Grozny, Russia. Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed, and 29 were injured. The passengers included 37 Azerbaijani citizens, 6 Kazakhs, 3 Kyrgyz, and 16 Russians. On December 26, video footage showing small holes in the fuselage wreckage sparked speculation about possible external damage. Aviation and military analysts suggested the holes might have been caused by air defense systems, given reports from the Chechen authorities about the shooting down of Ukrainian drones in the area. This raised concerns about the potential for misidentification. [caption id="attachment_27352" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Chechen Pantsir Missile Launcher; image: Vitaly V. Kuzmin[/caption] When asked about the possibility of external fire, Kazakh Minister Marat Bozumbayev emphasized that conclusions would only be drawn after all available evidence had been examined. International Collaboration The Azerbaijani government rejected the idea of a Russian-led investigation, opting instead for an international team of experts, including representatives from Embraer. The black boxes were sent to CENIPA on December 29. The crash also prompted a temporary suspension...

11 months ago

Geopolitics

Navigating Energy and Diplomacy: Putin’s Visit to Kazakhstan

The Kremlin has confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Kazakhstan on November 27 at the invitation of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The visit is expected to focus on several key issues, with the construction of Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant likely to be high on the agenda. As part of the visit, the two leaders will participate in the 20th Forum of Inter-regional Cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia via video conference. Additionally, Putin will attend the regular session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Collective Security Council, chaired by President Tokayev, on November 28. The meeting will involve heads of state from Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, as well as CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov. The agenda includes discussions on regional and international security, with a program to strengthen Tajik-Afghan border security set to be adopted. Notably, given its currently tumultuous relationship with Russia in the wake of Azerbaijan's invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia will not participate, with its Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan having opted out of attending. Focus on Nuclear Power and the Role of a Consortium Experts believe that Putin’s visit will include discussions on nuclear energy. This aligns with recent remarks by Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev, who stated that Kazakhstan is open to discussing nuclear power plant construction with Russia, among other potential partners. Satkaliyev emphasized that energy issues remain a cornerstone of international cooperation, and Kazakhstan has established an intergovernmental commission to evaluate proposals from various vendors on a competitive basis. Kazakhstan’s First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar has highlighted the importance of forming an international consortium for the project. Speaking in September, Sklyar noted that political risks and safety concerns would be addressed during the process. He also emphasized the need to incorporate cutting-edge technologies from global leaders in the nuclear energy sector. On November 14, Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met with Alexei Likhachev, Director General of the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation, Rosatom. The meeting focused on cooperation in nuclear energy, quantum technologies, digitization, and the development of human resources. Rosatom, a diversified company involved in engineering and construction, currently has 39 nuclear power units in various stages of development across ten countries. Public Support and Future Plans The potential construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan has garnered significant public support. In an October 2024 referendum, 71.2% of Kazakh voters approved the initiative. Commenting on the result, Tokayev suggested that an international consortium involving global companies with advanced technologies would be the best approach for the project. Kazakhstan’s energy landscape is characterized by a reliance on aging thermal power plants, which are increasingly unable to meet the demands of a growing population and economy, with electricity shortages projected to worsen, particularly in the rapidly developing southern regions. The construction of a nuclear power plant, therefore, is seen as a crucial step toward alleviating these shortages, reducing dependence on overpriced imports from Russia, and achieving carbon neutrality goals. The construction of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant presents both...

1 year ago