• KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
  • KZT/USD = 0.00213
  • TJS/USD = 0.10810
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008
  • TMT/USD = 0.29850
07 August 2026

Our People > Stephen M. Bland

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Stephen M. Bland

Managing Editor and Head of Investigations

Stephen M. Bland is a journalist, author, editor, commentator, and researcher specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Prior to joining The Times of Central Asia, he worked for NGOs, think tanks, as the Central Asia expert on a forthcoming documentary series, for the BBC, The Diplomat, EurasiaNet, and numerous other publications.

His award-winning book on Central Asia was published in 2016, and he is currently putting the finishing touches to a book about the Caucasus.

Articles

Shipowners Pull Back from CPC as Export Recovery Falters

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea export operations have become intermittent once again following a brief restart. Eight trading sources told Reuters that CPC repeatedly suspended operations this week and was closed again on August 5, as safety concerns made shipowners reluctant to accept CPC voyages. Four tankers completed loading after the July 30 attacks, and two had left the terminal area by early this week. Those departures confirmed that cargo could still move, but they did not show that the terminal had returned to normal. Russian transport group FESCO suspended operations in the area on August 4, while one CPC Blend seller needed several attempts to secure a vessel for a recent cargo. CPC declined to comment. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry had said on August 1 that a complete shutdown was not under consideration and the situation was under control. A Brief Restart The latest disruption followed two attacks near the terminal on July 30. NISSOS SIFNOS was struck while loading Tengizchevroil crude at single-point mooring SPM-3. MARATHI was hit while waiting about six nautical miles offshore. Both crews were unharmed, fires were extinguished, and no pollution was reported. Chevron told The Times of Central Asia at the time that it was “aware of reports of an incident involving a vessel loading at Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) facilities near Novorossiysk. The safety of personnel, the protection of the environment and integrity of assets are our top priorities.” CPC stopped oil loading after the event, but said its pipeline facilities were operating normally. On July 31, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said that oil was flowing and tankers were loading. By August 3, four tankers had completed loading at the terminal; two had departed, while at least three more remained nearby. Exports had resumed briefly, but the restart proved fragile. The Energy Ministry said CPC was receiving 100,000 metric tons of crude a day on August 1, equal to about 730,000 barrels per day. “The CPC continues to receive oil from shippers, while storage tanks are being filled,” the ministry said. It added that higher intake depended on tankers arriving on time. The 1,511-kilometer pipeline can continue moving crude into terminal storage while maritime exports slow or stop. If the tanks fill, CPC may have to restrict intake, forcing producers in Kazakhstan to cut output. Freight costs reflected the risk. The daily charter rate for a tanker calling at CPC reached $338,000 by the end of last week, almost double the level from a month earlier. August-loading CPC Blend cargoes were offered this week at nearly $4 a barrel below Brent. The grade had traded at a premium only a few weeks earlier. War-risk insurance for calls at Black Sea terminals has risen to as much as 2% of a vessel’s value, from around 1% two weeks earlier, according to insurance sources. Production Damage Spreads Preliminary operational data put Kazakhstan’s crude oil and gas condensate production for July at 7.6 million metric tons, or about 1.85 million barrels per day. That was...

1 day ago

Four Tankers Load at CPC as Tengizchevroil Plans Larger Batumi Shipments

Four tankers have completed loading Kazakh crude at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal following the July 30 attacks, providing vessel-tracking confirmation that shipments restarted. Two have left the terminal area, while at least three more were waiting nearby, Bloomberg reported. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on July 31 that the pipeline was flowing and ships were being loaded. CPC has not issued a detailed notice covering the restart, but the completed cargoes confirm that tanker loading resumed, though throughput remains below normal. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said CPC was receiving 100,000 metric tons of crude a day as of August 1, equivalent to about 730,000 barrels per day, after temporarily suspending its pipeline system on July 31. “The CPC continues to receive oil from shippers, while storage tanks are being filled,” the ministry said. It added that further increases would depend on tankers arriving on time for loading at the marine terminal. The offshore facility is technically capable of handling the volumes recorded before the attacks, but exports still depend on vessel availability and weather conditions. The daily charter rate for a tanker calling at the terminal reached $338,000 by the end of last week, nearly double its level a month earlier, according to Baltic Exchange data. Some shipowners were avoiding the terminal after repeated attacks on vessels loading or waiting nearby. An industry source familiar with operational data told Reuters that national oil and gas condensate output averaged about 1.85 million barrels per day in July, down 14% from 2.16 million barrels per day in June. Tengiz output fell 18% month on month, while Kashagan declined 25% and Karachaganak fell 18%, the source said. Tengiz was producing about 454,000 barrels per day on July 31, compared with a June average of 961,000 barrels per day. The Energy Ministry and the field operators had not confirmed those preliminary figures. CPC carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and handles most production from Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. The pipeline runs about 1,510 kilometers from western Kazakhstan through Russia to the terminal near Novorossiysk. Russia holds 31% of the consortium, while Kazakhstan holds 20.75%. Chevron owns 15%, and ExxonMobil holds 7.5%. Tengizchevroil is also expanding a smaller alternative route. The Chevron-led venture plans to send about 100,000 metric tons of Tengiz crude by rail to Georgia’s Batumi oil port terminal in August, Reuters reported, citing two industry sources. About 20,000 tons had moved through Batumi from the start of July, marking the first shipments on the route since March. The planned volume for August is equivalent to roughly 24,000 barrels per day, five times the July total, but small beside Tengiz’s normal output and the volumes CPC can carry. Batumi cannot replace the pipeline, though it provides an additional outlet if security problems again slow tanker arrivals near Novorossiysk. On August 3, the cargo ship Nadezhda was hit by a drone about 20 nautical miles from Novorossiysk, seriously injuring three crew members. The vessel was not reported to be carrying...

2 days ago

Kazakhstan Proposes Rules for Paid Electronic Entry Permits

Kazakhstan's Interior Ministry has opened public consultation on rules for a paid electronic entry permit for foreign visitors. The ministry has proposed a phased rollout between August and December 2026, but the published summary leaves several basic questions unanswered. The proposal was posted on July 31, and remains open for comments until August 17. It would amend Kazakhstan's 2012 rules governing the entry, stay, and departure of foreign nationals. The ministry says the system will provide "transparency, speed, and completeness [in] recording the cross-border movements of foreign nationals.” However, the consultation page does not display the proposed amendments, an explanatory note, or a comparative table. Rather, it shows an information summary and one attachment labeled as a Russian-language table, leading one public commenter, Andrei Sukhanov, to ask: "Where is the draft itself? Or is only its title being discussed?" That omission makes it impossible to establish several important terms from the consultation. The page does not state the fee, the nationalities covered, the grounds for refusal, the appeal process, or the date when permits would become mandatory. It also fails to explain whether visa holders would need a further separate authorization. The legal basis for introducing paid electronic entry permits already exists: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed Law No. 326-VIII on June 24. The law was first published on June 25, and most of its provisions take effect on August 25. The law defines an electronic entry permit as a digital document granting a foreign citizen or stateless person the right to enter Kazakhstan or transit its territory. The Interior Ministry will issue, refuse, or cancel permits in coordination with the National Security Committee. Foreign citizens and stateless persons entering Kazakhstan will undergo identification and authentication, including the processing of personal and biometric data for a digital immigration profile. The government will set the fee and payment procedure. The law directs half of the revenue toward migration and border-control technology, while the other half will support domestic and inbound tourism. The Interior Ministry's summary says differentiated charges would fund technical maintenance, digital infrastructure upgrades, and personal-data protection. It gives no amounts or categories, meaning travelers cannot assess the cost. Kazakhstan is already testing the permit through the QazETA platform. During the pilot, the Electronic Travel Authorization is recommended rather than compulsory for citizens of visa-exempt countries. Applicants are asked to submit requests through the mobile app at least 72 hours before travel, and an authorization remains valid for 180 days. An ETA does not extend the permitted length of stay or guarantee admission, with border officials retaining the final decision. The current pilot exempts holders of diplomatic and service passports, members of official delegations, and accredited diplomats. The government has not announced when the pilot will end or published the list of countries that will face a mandatory requirement. A local report in July said Kyrgyzstan had sought clarification on whether the system would cover citizens of Eurasian Economic Union states. Kazakhstan has not published a decision on that point. The...

2 days ago

Uzbekistan Turns to Georgia and Iraq as Jet Fuel Demand Rises 27%

Uzbekistan says it has arranged aviation fuel imports from Georgia, Iraq, and other countries as changes in regional air traffic drive up demand. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's office said on August 3 that demand for aviation fuel will reach an estimated 375,000 metric tons from July through December, 27% higher than in the same period in 2025. The government linked the increase to more flights through Central Asia and a rise in services to Uzbekistan, according to an official statement. “Most of this demand will be met by domestic oil refineries,” the president’s office said, adding that alternative import channels, including supplies from Georgia and Iraq, had been established in response to export restrictions imposed by certain partner countries. The statement did not identify the countries imposing the restrictions. It also gave no details about suppliers, import volumes, prices, delivery routes, or whether shipments from Georgia and Iraq have begun. Batumi Oil Terminal resumed handling European-produced aviation fuel in July, while Georgia’s Kulevi refinery does not plan to begin producing aviation kerosene until 2027. Uzbekistan has not said whether the supplies listed as coming from Georgia are produced there or re-exported through the country. State-owned Uzbekneftegaz aims to produce 310,000 tons of aviation fuel in 2026. This is only the company’s production target, not Uzbekistan’s total domestic output. The government has not said how much of the country’s aviation fuel demand will be met by Uzbekneftegaz, other domestic producers, or imports. Uzbekistan's airports handled 64,831 flights during the first half of 2026, up 8% from a year earlier. Passenger traffic rose 16% to more than 8.15 million, according to Uzbekistan Airports data. International services accounted for 47,371 flights and nearly 6.7 million passengers, with Tashkent International Airport handling 40,283 flights, up 7%, while passenger traffic increased 17% to 5.36 million. Tourism is also adding to passenger demand. Uzbekistan recorded 6,565,410 foreign visits for tourism purposes in January-June, up 24.9% from a year earlier, according to the National Statistics Committee. The increase forms part of a wider regional travel boom. However, almost three-quarters of those came from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan, which together accounted for 4.9 million arrivals. The total therefore includes substantial land-border traffic and cannot be read solely as an air-passenger figure. Geopolitical disruption is another factor driving demand. The war involving Iran has constricted a main Europe-Asia aviation corridor and forced airlines away from high-risk airspace. Some services are now using a northern arc through the Caucasus and Central Asia, increasing the value of the region’s airspace. Pressure from the north predates the Iran conflict. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many Western carriers have avoided Russian airspace. Uzbekistan Airways began routing Europe services around Russia and Belarus in January 2025. Its Tashkent-Munich route grew by 307 kilometers, adding 30 to 40 minutes to the journey time. Uzbekistan already had a growing air transit base. Uzaeronavigation served 188,000 flights in 2023, including 143,000 by foreign airlines. More than 74,000 flights were handled in Uzbek airspace during January-April...

3 days ago

Kazakhstan Releases First Tiger into Wild in More Than 70 Years

Kazakhstan has released a tiger into the wild for the first time in more than 70 years, beginning the practical phase of a long-running program to restore the predator to the Ili River delta. The female Amur tiger, Umit, was released at the Ile-Balkhash State Nature Reserve on July 31, the Ecology Ministry announced on August 3. “Today we witnessed a truly historic event,” Ecology Minister Yerlan Nysanbayev said. He described the release as the result of more than a decade of work by Kazakhstan, Russian specialists, scientists, and international conservation partners. Before the release, Umit underwent veterinary examinations and assessments of her health, hunting ability, behavior, and response to people. Officials fitted her with a GPS/GSM satellite collar. Reserve staff are now tracking her around the clock through satellite data and camera traps. The adult male tiger, also named Amur, remains under observation and must complete further behavioral assessments before any release. Two cubs, Turan and Ussuri, will remain in prepared enclosures until they are at least 18 months old. Officials will assess each animal separately. The four wild-caught tigers arrived from Russia’s Khabarovsk region in May. They joined Bogdana and Kuma, two captive Amur tigers transferred from the Netherlands in September 2024 for breeding. The Dutch pair will remain in an enclosure, while suitable offspring may later be prepared for release. Tigers once occupied reed beds and floodplain forests along the Ili and Syr Darya rivers. Hunting, habitat loss, and the collapse of wild prey populations drove the Turan, or Caspian, tiger from Kazakhstan. The last recorded animal in the country was killed in 1948. Kazakhstan is using Amur tigers because genetic research found a very close relationship between the surviving Russian Far East population and the extinct Caspian population. The study found that their main mitochondrial DNA types differed by only one nucleotide. Kazakhstan announced plans to restore tigers in 2010 and created the Ile-Balkhash reserve in 2018. The protected area covers the Ili delta and the southern shore of Lake Balkhash, one of the former strongholds of the Turan tiger. Preparations have included restoring floodplain habitat and rebuilding the prey base. Authorities released 205 Bukhara deer into the reserve between 2018 and 2024 and relocated more than 100 kulans. Roe deer and wild boar populations have also increased. A July review by Kazakh and Russian specialists examined the release preparations and issued technical recommendations. The NBSAP Accelerator Partnership said that, “Success will be measured not simply by releasing individual animals, but by establishing a secure, self-sustaining tiger population.” The program also includes measures to reduce conflict with nearby communities. Residents will receive individual alerts if a tracked tiger comes within five kilometers of a home or settlement. The reserve has established teams to deter, tranquilize, or capture an animal if necessary. A public hotline has operated since May 2025. A compensation herd has been created to reimburse owners if a tiger kills livestock. These measures are designed to prevent the animals from associating settlements with food...

4 days ago

Chevron Says CPC Is Loading Tankers as Kazakhstan Restores Oil Intake

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said that oil was flowing through the CPC pipeline and tankers were being loaded on July 31, one day after two vessels were attacked near its Black Sea terminal. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said intake reached 100,000 metric tons a day from August 1 and rejected reports of a complete shutdown. “The pipeline is flowing. We’ve been loading ships this week,” Wirth said during Chevron’s second-quarter earnings call. He said two of CPC’s three single-point moorings were in service. The third was undergoing refurbishment and was expected to return during the third quarter. The ministry said CPC temporarily suspended pipeline system operations on July 31 but continued receiving crude and filling storage tanks. A complete shutdown “is not being considered,” it said. Further increases would depend on tankers arriving for loading near Novorossiysk. The two statements indicate that loadings restarted quickly after the July 30 attacks, but do not establish a full return to planned export volumes. CPC can receive crude while storage space remains available, but if tanker loadings fall behind, storage fills and producers must cut output as they did in late July. On August 2, OPEC+ raised Kazakhstan’s September target by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.628 million barrels. The increase formed part of a combined 188,000-barrel-per-day rise for Kazakhstan and six other producers. The group said countries that had exceeded their quotas since January 2024 would make up for the excess by producing less in future months. A separate OPEC+ monitoring committee, which includes Kazakhstan, stressed the “critical importance” of safeguarding international maritime routes and expressed concern about attacks on energy infrastructure. Its statement did not name CPC or the Black Sea incidents. For Kazakhstan, the higher quota may have little immediate effect if export flows remain constrained. Reuters has reported that OPEC+ may pause further increases after September while it reviews production capacity for quota baselines which will apply in 2027. The immediate risk is a repeat of late July, when disrupted loadings filled storage and forced sharp production cuts at Tengiz and other major fields. CPC loadings had resumed on July 27 after a week-long suspension. Three days later, two more tankers were attacked near the terminal. NISSOS SIFNOS was struck while loading Tengizchevroil crude at the SPM-3 offshore mooring, while MARATHI was hit while waiting for a berth about six nautical miles offshore. Both fires were extinguished, and no injuries to the crews or pollution were reported. Neither CPC nor Kazakhstan publicly identified an attacker. Ukraine’s drone forces later said they had struck four Russian tankers in the Black and Azov seas, but did not name the vessels or locations. The earlier stoppage had already demonstrated how swiftly export disruption can reach Kazakhstan’s oilfields. National oil and gas condensate production fell to about one million barrels per day on July 26, less than half the June average of 2.16 million barrels per day. CPC runs for about 1,510 kilometers from western Kazakhstan through Russia to the Black Sea. It handles...

4 days ago

Kazakhstan Weighs Proposal to Process Russian Crude

Kazakhstan is considering a plan to process Russian crude at its refineries, a step Astana says could support plant utilization and domestic fuel supplies but could also raise sanctions-compliance and diplomatic questions, depending on its scale and structure. The Energy Ministry said on July 30 that discussions cover refining oil “of Russian origin,” selling part of the output in Kazakhstan, and exporting part back to Russia. It did not identify the refineries, volumes, counterparties, or commercial terms. The talks come as parts of Russia face fuel shortages following repeated Ukrainian strikes on refineries. Moscow has extended export restrictions on gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and gas oils until January 31, 2027, although producers regain exemptions for several products from September 1. The two countries already exchange crude, feedstock, and refined products. Russia discussed buying about 50,000 metric tons of Kazakh gasoline in June. Astana said at the time that it had received no formal request and would protect domestic supply. Trade has since moved beyond discussion. Kazakhstan's Condensate refinery is processing Russian naphtha and exported gasoline to Russia for the first time in July. Kazakhstan has a practical industrial case for considering the proposal. Although the ministry has not identified any refinery involved in the talks, the Pavlodar refinery was designed to process West Siberian crude and remains connected to Russian supply routes. The two countries share extensive energy transport systems and coordinate annual fuel balances. The ministry said steady feedstock would support refinery utilization and domestic supply. The wider regional focus on fuel security was evident on July 31, when Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed building large oil refineries in Central Asia, prioritizing domestic demand for essential petroleum products. Decades of infrastructure integration also constrain Kazakhstan’s room for maneuver. More than 80% of its oil exports cross Russian territory through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Much of Kazakhstan’s rail trade is tied to Russian networks. These links narrow Kazakhstan’s near-term options and raise the economic cost of abrupt changes to established energy arrangements. The scale and destination of the resulting fuel would determine much of the political meaning. Small volumes sold mainly in Kazakhstan could resemble established regional commerce. A larger export-oriented program supplying Russia during a period of refinery disruption would draw more scrutiny, particularly if it materially eased pressure on Russia’s fuel system. The sensitivity has been heightened by renewed disruption around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. On July 30, attacks hit NISSOS SIFNOS and MARATHI near the CPC terminal at Novorossiysk. Oil loading stopped only three days after Kazakhstan resumed exports following a week-long disruption. The route is Kazakhstan’s principal oil export artery. The earlier stoppage cut national oil and gas condensate output to about one million barrels per day by July 26, less than half the June average. Russia explicitly blamed Ukraine. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the July 30 strikes “actions of a terrorist nature” and said they harmed Kazakh and U.S. economic interests. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed the incidents but did not name an attacker....

1 week ago

CPC Halts Oil Loadings Again After Two More Tankers Attacked Near Novorossiysk

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has stopped oil loading at its Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk after two more tankers were attacked early on July 30. The suspension came only three days after Kazakhstan resumed exports through the route following a week-long disruption. The Marshall Islands-flagged NISSOS SIFNOS was attacked at 1:48 a.m. Moscow time while loading Tengizchevroil crude at single-point mooring SPM-3, CPC said. A drone hit the cargo deck near the manifolds used to receive oil. The strike caused a fire, which the crew extinguished with help from three CPC support vessels. CPC said no employees or contractors were injured, no oil spill occurred, and the crew did not request medical assistance or evacuation. Okeanis Eco Tankers, the vessel’s owner, said NISSOS SIFNOS sustained only minor damage, its crew was safe, and no spill or pollution occurred. The company said the tanker was continuing its voyage operations. The tanker MARATHI was also attacked while awaiting a berth at the CPC terminal, about six nautical miles, or eleven kilometres, offshore. Dynacom Tankers, the vessel’s operator, said it was struck by two projectiles of unknown origin. The resulting fire was extinguished by the crew, all of whom were safe and accounted for. No pollution was reported. Dynacom said it had activated its emergency response plan and remained in contact with the crew and the relevant authorities. “Oil loading has been stopped, while pipeline facilities are operating normally,” CPC said. The consortium did not identify who carried out either attack. No party had claimed responsibility when the suspension was announced. Ukraine’s drone forces later said they had struck four Russian tankers in the Black and Azov seas overnight but did not identify the vessels or locations. The statement therefore did not establish responsibility for the attacks on NISSOS SIFNOS or MARATHI. CPC said appeals from Kazakhstan and its foreign shareholders had been ignored. It said some representations were made through the U.S. State Department. On July 23, the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, Bill Huizenga, told The Times of Central Asia that further strikes affecting CPC infrastructure would “not be tolerated.” CPC said attacks near loading equipment could cause a major fire and oil spill. The consortium also warned of damage to Kazakhstan and to shippers including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni, TotalEnergies, and Shell. On July 27, CPC had restarted tanker loadings and resumed accepting oil from Kazakhstan after storage constraints forced producers to cut output. The July 30 incidents bring the number of tankers struck near or while serving the CPC terminal during July to at least eight. The sequence began with the Chevron-chartered Yasa Polaris on July 7. Nordic Zenith was hit on July 17. ASIA and NISSOS IOS were attacked while loading Kazakh crude on July 19. NELSA was struck at SPM-1 on July 20, and HERA was reported damaged while approaching the terminal on July 23. The earlier attacks repeatedly stopped loadings. CPC then stopped accepting crude, and tankers scheduled to collect...

1 week ago

As Two Wars Reach the Caspian, Central Asia’s Middle Corridor Holds

On July 25, two wars met in waters that Central Asian governments had tried to keep apart. Ukraine reported successful long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the targets included vessels involved in carrying military cargo from Iran and a warship. Tehran said an Iranian commercial vessel had been struck, killing one sailor and injuring another, and accused Kyiv of trying to widen the war. It remains unclear whether the vessel identified by Iran was among the targets described by Zelenskyy. Diplomacy produced a limited off-ramp. On July 28, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, that the strike on the Iranian ship was unintended. Both governments said they wanted to avoid further escalation. The call reduced the immediate risk of retaliation, but it did not remove the new danger. The Caspian is now one of the places where Russia’s war against Ukraine and the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States intersect. Central Asia is exposed through the infrastructure and trade routes linking them. A “Sea of Peace” Under Pressure Turkmenistan responded to the incident with unusually direct language. Its Foreign Ministry called attacks on vessels in the Caspian “inadmissible” and described the waterway as a “sea of peace, harmony and good-neighborliness.” Ashgabat did not name Ukraine or endorse Iran’s account. Its restraint was characteristic, but the public criticism was unusual. Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality normally produces guarded statements during external conflicts. The intervention showed that Ashgabat viewed the attack as a challenge to the regional order. Turkmenistan faces Iran across a 1,148-kilometer land border and the southern Caspian. Turkmenbashi port is also central to its plans for a larger role in Eurasian trade. The principle is set out in the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in Aktau in 2018. Its text calls for the peaceful use of the sea, prohibits the use or threat of force, and bars armed forces belonging to non-Caspian states. The convention has not entered into force because Iran has not ratified it. Its provisions were designed to govern relations among the five littoral states. They do not address a long-range strike carried out by a non-littoral state. But modern drones can cross distances that once provided strategic shelter. A landlocked sea can no longer be assumed to sit beyond the reach of surrounding wars. The Iran-Russia Link Ukraine has clear military reasons to look toward the Caspian. Iran has supplied Russia with drone technology used against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The sea also provides a direct commercial route between Iranian ports and Russia’s Volga region. Kyiv now treats vessels on that route carrying military cargo as part of Russia’s military logistics. Iran described the vessel struck on July 25 as civilian. The dispute over the ship’s cargo is central because commercial and military supply chains can overlap. A vessel may be civilian by flag and registration while carrying goods that Ukraine considers part of Russia’s war effort. That uncertainty reaches beyond...

1 week ago

Kazakhstan Resumes CPC Oil Exports After Output More Than Halves

Kazakhstan resumed oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium on July 27 after the consortium restarted accepting crude and loading tankers at its Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk. The Energy Ministry said the SEAMAJESTY and MILOS tankers were loading crude supplied by Tengizchevroil at two of the terminal’s single-point moorings. CPC said its pipeline had been back online since 12:28 p.m. Moscow time. Loading operations resumed after a week-long suspension. The ministry said terminal operations would continue according to assessments of the security situation and compliance with safety requirements. It remains in contact with CPC management, oil producers, and other companies involved in the shipments. The restart followed the sharpest production decline recorded during the disruption. Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output fell to about one million barrels per day on July 26, according to an industry source. That was less than half the June average of 2.16 million barrels per day. Production had already fallen by about 21% as of July 22, to 1.63 million barrels per day. Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield, bore the heaviest initial reduction. Its output dropped by 56%, from a July average of 925,000 barrels per day to about 406,000 barrels per day. By July 26, the cuts had spread across Kazakhstan’s three largest oil projects. Daily production at Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak fell by between 70% and 90% compared with June levels, according to an industry source. The Energy Ministry and the projects’ operators did not comment on the field-level figures. Producers reduced output after CPC restricted intake from Kazakhstan and suspended tanker loadings. Storage tanks at the terminal had reached capacity, leaving the pipeline system with little room to receive additional crude. The Energy Ministry described the reductions as a technical measure intended to keep production operations stable. The halt followed a series of drone attacks on tankers near the CPC terminal. Three vessels were struck on July 17 and 19, including two loading Kazakh oil. Loadings briefly resumed before another tanker, NELSA, was hit at a single-point mooring on July 20. No casualties or oil spills were reported. Kazakhstan condemned the attacks and said an agreed information-sharing mechanism intended to protect civilian vessels carrying CPC crude had been disregarded. The government described the incidents as a threat to international energy security and demanded an immediate halt. The 1,510-kilometer CPC pipeline carries crude from western Kazakhstan through Russia to the Black Sea. It handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, including most production from Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. The shutdown added to a difficult year for the sector. Kazakhstan produced 45.7 million tonnes of oil in the first half of 2026, down 8.4% year-on-year. The ministry expects full-year production of 98 million tonnes after lowering its previous target because of earlier Tengiz outages and CPC disruptions. It was not immediately clear how quickly output would return to earlier levels. The reopening restores Kazakhstan’s main export outlet, but the speed and scale of the cuts again exposed its dependence on infrastructure vulnerable to...

1 week ago