Bottlenecked: Eurasia’s Freight Lifelines Falter
Amid heightened geopolitical tensions and stricter border regulations, key transit routes linking China and Europe via Kazakhstan and Belarus have experienced severe disruptions. The resulting bottlenecks have exposed the fragility of Eurasian logistics and cast doubt on the reliability of the overland corridors central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. From Military Maneuvers to Transport Gridlock For over two decades, Kazakhstan has invested heavily in developing its transit potential, aiming to become the main bridge between China and Europe. But in September and October this year, logistical bottlenecks began to appear, chiefly at border crossings. The disruptions were triggered by the closure of Belarusian‑Polish checkpoints following the launch of the Zapad 2025 military exercises (12‑16 September 2025) conducted by Russia and Belarus. On September 12, the day the exercises began, Poland suspended road and rail traffic after drones reportedly entered its airspace. Belarus claimed the drones had veered off course due to electronic warfare measures involving Russia and Ukraine. Despite this explanation, Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO charter, prompting the alliance to launch Operation Eastern Sentry to bolster its eastern flank. The closure lasted nearly two weeks, during which more than 130 freight trains from China, carrying cargo worth billions of euros, were stranded. The China Factor and Limited Alternatives China responded diplomatically: on 15 September, Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks in Warsaw; on 22 September, Politburo member Li Xi visited Minsk. Despite these efforts, border reopening was not immediately expedited. Alternative routes proved inadequate. The Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor) — through Kazakhstan and the Caspian Sea — is growing but still modest in capacity. In 2022 its potential was assessed at around 80,000 TEU annually. Some forecasts estimate it may rise to 10 million tons per year by 2027, but it remains well short of the volumes handled by the northern rail corridor. According to Logistan, the route currently has a monthly capacity of under 10,000 TEU, far short of the 40,000 TEU demand. The World Bank estimates that upgrading Middle Corridor infrastructure will require $27-$29 billion over 15 years, primarily for rail and port development. Amid these limitations, China tested a new maritime option: in September, an ice-class container vessel departed Ningbo-Zhoushan for the UK via the Northern Sea Route. The move indicates Beijing’s growing interest in Arctic alternatives to land corridors. Kazakhstan-Russia Hubs and “Gray” Transit As disruptions continued on the western flank, issues emerged in the south. Since mid-June, Russian logistics companies have reported delays at Kazakhstan’s border crossings. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance attributed the slowdowns to increased inspections aimed at intercepting counterfeit goods. Forbes reported that roughly 7,000 trucks, carrying Chinese cargo worth hundreds of millions of dollars, were stranded. Many shipments used simplified declarations, often disguised as textiles or raw materials, and sometimes included dual-use items. Despite denials from both Kazakh and Russian authorities, freight companies cited congestion stretching for kilometers. The situation worsened after Russia imposed new migration rules restricting Kazakh drivers to 90 days of stay per year. The Kazakh government...
