Climate Adaptation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Corridor

How the Shrinking Caspian Sea Affects the Middle Corridor’s Potential

Paradoxically, the Caspian Sea is becoming one of Eurasia’s most important transport hubs at a time when its falling water level is creating growing constraints on navigation. As sanctions disrupt traditional trade routes through Russia, countries are investing in the Middle Corridor as an alternative link between Asia and Europe. Yet the continuing decline in sea level is limiting shipping capacity and increasing the risks and costs associated with long-term infrastructure projects. The first Caspian Environmental Summit, held in Turkmenistan on October 9, 2026, drew attention to the scale of these changes. Between 2000 and 2025, the Caspian Sea shrank by more than 16,000 square kilometers, while in some areas the shoreline receded by tens of kilometers. How the Caspian’s Falling Water Level Affects Freight The Middle Corridor, linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe, is seen as a promising route for diversifying international trade. Its development can reduce shippers’ dependence on individual transport routes and improve economic ties among countries in the region. According to the World Bank’s latest study, more than $25 billion in investment in the corridor’s core physical infrastructure will be needed through 2040. An additional $30 billion could be required for enabling infrastructure and services. The bank estimates that if infrastructure investment is combined with institutional reforms, freight volumes along the corridor could quadruple and travel times could fall by about two-thirds by 2040. A study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that insufficient depths are already preventing vessels from being fully loaded, reducing transport efficiency and increasing costs. Large-scale dredging was carried out at the Port of Kuryk in 2024. Over four months, around one million cubic meters of material were removed, and the depth of the operational port area was increased to 7–8 meters, according to the port operator. This made it possible to load vessels to full capacity. Meanwhile, major dredging work is underway at Aktau, where 1.3 million cubic meters of material are to be removed to increase water depths to 6–7 meters. The work is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. Dredging, however, can only maintain the operation of individual port facilities, while further declines in the sea level may require repeated work or the reconstruction of berths. Where draft restrictions prevent full loading, transport companies may need to make more voyages to carry the same volume of cargo, increasing spending on fuel, crews, maintenance, and port operations. Constraints on the maritime section can also lead to delays for railcars and containers and disrupt transshipment schedules. These disruptions reduce the predictability of deliveries along the entire route. Similar problems are emerging on the western coast of the Caspian. Falling water levels are reducing vessel cargo capacity at Azerbaijani ports and oil terminals and requiring additional dredging. Infrastructure for Decades Ahead According to the OECD study, which cites World Bank climate projections, under a high-emissions scenario in which the Caspian water level falls by about five meters between...

Land Restoration

Kyrgyzstan Plans to Restore Land in Syr Darya Basin

Kyrgyzstan plans to restore degraded land in the Syr Darya basin as shrinking glaciers and declining forest cover raise concerns about the future of one of Central Asia’s main water systems. The four-year project will restore at least 264 hectares in the Jalal-Abad region, mainly within the Kyzyl-Unkur and Toskool-Ata forest enterprises. More than 27,000 people are expected to benefit directly from work on damaged land, including forests and agricultural areas. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations will implement the project with the country’s Forestry Service, using financing from the Global Environment Facility. The work will include agroforestry, sustainable land and water management practices, ecosystem restoration, and monitoring of land degradation and natural hazards. It also aims to avoid emitting or to sequester about 2.22 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. Upstream conditions affect water supplies far beyond Jalal-Abad. The Naryn rises in Kyrgyzstan and joins the Kara Darya in Uzbekistan to form the Syr Darya, which continues through Tajikistan and Kazakhstan before reaching the North Aral Sea. Its water feeds large farming areas as well as a chain of reservoirs and hydropower plants. That system is becoming harder to manage as glaciers retreat and the timing of river flows changes. Kyrgyzstan depends heavily on mountain runoff and faces a longstanding seasonal trade-off, needing water for winter hydropower generation while downstream agriculture requires larger releases during the summer growing season. The work in Jalal-Abad is small compared with the size of the basin, but comes as the country reassesses how climate change could affect its water supplies. Mountain forests are closely connected to glaciers and river headwaters, making land degradation an issue for water management both domestically and downstream. The national climate adaptation plan through 2035 calls for new monitoring and early-warning systems to address these risks.

Water Governance

“Water Insecurity Is Not Experienced Equally”: Why Scarcity Is Also a Social Problem

A water crisis begins long before a river runs dry. Across Central and South Asia, retreating glaciers and the overuse of groundwater are putting supplies under growing pressure. Environmental sociologist Devendraraj Madhanagopal argues that the more revealing question is often who gets the water that remains. An assistant professor at XIM University’s School of Sustainability, Madhanagopal has studied climate adaptation among fishing communities on India’s southern coast. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, he draws on that research to discuss why water scarcity can deepen social inequalities in the Aral Sea region. Giving local people more responsibility for managing water without the resources or authority to act, he warns, can make matters worse. TCA: Glacier retreat and changes in snow cover are increasingly affecting water security in both Central and South Asia. However, these processes are often discussed mainly from environmental or hydrological perspectives. In your view, which social consequences are currently underestimated? How could changing water availability affect local communities, agriculture, employment, and migration? Dr. Madhanagopal: Before discussing the availability of water at the country, regional, or continental level, we also need to focus on the social and cultural dimensions of water and on how available water is distributed among different social groups. Communities have historically developed customary institutions, informal rules, practices and local leadership structures to share and distribute water resources. Many of these arrangements have gradually weakened over recent decades in Asia with the rise of resource-intensive development. At the same time, governments in India and Central Asia, including Kazakhstan, have increasingly recognized that water security requires the effective management of complex and interconnected systems. Institutions have been established, and governments increasingly seek support from think tanks, research organizations, and NGOs to address the socio-political and governance dimensions of water management. Nevertheless, significant knowledge and governance gaps remain. Glacier retreat and changes in snow cover are receiving increasing attention from scientists and policymakers. However, discussions about water governance still tend to focus on macro-level transboundary disputes, glacier retreat, and technocentric adaptation, including efficiency improvements and infrastructure. Much less attention is given to social inequalities, power, politics, and conflicts over access to water. This matters because water insecurity is not experienced equally. We need to ask who gets access to water, who bears the burden of scarcity, and how marginalized groups experience water insecurity. Lessons from previous water conflicts and governance failures have not always been adequately incorporated into planning and monitoring in India and many Central Asian countries. We also often view Central Asia primarily through geopolitical frameworks rather than environmental ones. Policy discussions should pay greater attention to interconnected river basins and the diverse environmental conditions across the region. Research and policymaking should examine how climate change and water insecurity affect agriculture, employment, and migration at both local and regional levels. Policymakers should also recognize that water insecurity can intensify local conflicts over shared resources and exacerbate existing inequalities, including gender inequality. These challenges ultimately require localized as well as regional responses. [caption...

Natural Disasters

Tajikistan Turns to Early Warning Systems as Climate Risks Grow

On the evening of May 1, a mudflow swept into residential neighborhoods in Kulob, southern Tajikistan. When water flooded a neighboring house, Mirzo Muloniezov rushed inside and managed to carry out his two-year-old grandson. The water had already reached the electrical outlets. Muloniezov was electrocuted. Neighbors pulled him from the water, but he could not be saved. In the first six months of 2026, Tajik authorities recorded 741 natural emergencies. Avalanches accounted for 508 of them, while another 123 were mudflows. Twelve people were killed, and economic damage exceeded TJS 52.8 million – about $5.7 million. Dushanbe is now discussing with the United Kingdom technologies that could give people more time before disaster strikes. On September 14, Rajabali Rahmonali, chairman of Tajikistan’s Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, met British Ambassador Katherine Smitton. Along with training rescuers and holding joint exercises, the talks covered geographic information systems (GIS), risk mapping, drones, remote monitoring, and early warning systems. These are no longer technologies for some distant future. Drones and GIS are already being used to monitor glaciers and areas exposed to mudflows. In late August, scientists from the Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia surveyed the Megdor and Khirson glaciers in the Vanjob River basin. They combined aerial surveys using drones with satellite imagery, GIS data, and hydrometeorological observations. The data allow specialists to track glacier movement and areas where new hazards could emerge. During the expedition, they also surveyed the area around the village of Votkhud after a July 19 mudflow damaged water supply and irrigation infrastructure. Particular attention is being paid to the Khirson Glacier. Its sudden surges have previously blocked river channels and created glacial lakes. Such lakes can become dangerous if a natural ice or debris dam fails, sending large volumes of water crashing into the valley below. Some early warning infrastructure is already operating in the country. In June, Tajikistan’s Agency for Hydrometeorology reported the deployment of systems used for flood forecasting and early warning. Tajikistan is also rehabilitating hydrological stations and expanding its observation network. British assistance is therefore being discussed for a system that already has some of its components in place. What remains unclear is whether the cooperation will provide additional monitoring stations, drones, software, specialist training, or a combination of these – and where any new equipment or systems would operate. Kulob shows what the existing system still lacks. Heavy rains in early May triggered floods and landslides in several parts of the country. Three people died – two were trapped beneath collapsed walls, and Muloniezov was electrocuted. His son Muloniezov Yakubchon told Asia-Plus that the mudflow arrived at around 8 p.m. Water first entered a neighboring house where children were inside, and then destroyed his family’s fence. After his father’s death, the family temporarily moved in with relatives. By May 20, 520 affected families in Kulob had received government assistance, while another 330 were still waiting. Umeda Alimova, a resident of the Qurbon Zardak neighborhood, received flour,...

Water Security

Kazakhstan Seeds Clouds as Kyrgyzstan Questions Regional Impact

A small aircraft climbed out of Turkestan airport on July 10 with hygroscopic salt flares fixed beneath its wings. Operated by the United Arab Emirates’ National Center of Meteorology, it was searching for a cloud suitable for seeding. Pilot Ahmed Aljaberi described the aircraft as “specifically equipped with a cloud-seeding flare system.” But no suitable cloud appeared during the mission. Cloud seeding can try to draw more rain from an existing cloud, but it cannot make one from clear air. Kazakhstan launched the project in Turkestan on May 16, targeting more than 911,000 hectares of arable land in the country’s leading cotton-belt. The government puts the potential economic benefit at up to 35 billion tenge, roughly $75 million a year. The partnership gives Kazakhstan access to decades of Emirati experience in weather modification. The UAE program dates to the late 1980s, and Emirati specialists are training Kazakh meteorologists, pilots, engineers, and other staff. Kazakhstan’s government describes the Turkestan operation as the first project of its scale in the region, though weather modification in Central Asia has a longer history. Kochkunbek Bakirov, a geographer at Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, has described Soviet-era research in the Karshi steppe, the Naryn basin, and over Issyk-Kul. Kazakhstan also trialed a different approach in Mangystau in 2021, using an ionization-based system promoted as a way to increase rainfall. Its developer claimed the equipment had begun to influence local moisture. The Mangystau system used ionization; the current program uses aircraft and hygroscopic salt flares. Before operations began, Kazhydromet analyzed data from 39 meteorological stations covering 2020 through 2024, selecting the Turkestan Region after studying atmospheric conditions and terrain. Flights only proceed when naturally formed cumulonimbus clouds with sufficient vertical development are present, with Kazhydromet monitoring satellite imagery, synoptic data, and cloud development before operations. The aircraft releases salt-based particles into suitable clouds. Kazakhstan’s Ecology Ministry lists sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and magnesium compounds among the reagents. In hygroscopic seeding, the particles encourage liquid droplets to collide and coalesce, which can improve precipitation efficiency in a suitable cloud. The cloud and its moisture must already exist. By July 13, crews had completed eleven operational flights, mainly over the Otyrar and Sozak districts. Officials were still analyzing the results of each operation; the number of flights does not show how much extra rain the project has produced. Kazakhstan’s launch materials cite a possible 10 to 20% increase in precipitation under favorable conditions. Results elsewhere vary widely. A 2024 review by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found estimates of 0 to 20% additional precipitation in the studies it examined. The GAO also found that effectiveness remains difficult to evaluate and that suitable clouds must be present. The evidence is much stronger for some cloud-seeding methods than for others. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the strongest recent causal evidence comes from wintertime glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds, while Kazakhstan is using hygroscopic salts in convective clouds. Their large natural variability creates a weak signal-to-noise problem, making the added...