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Energy Security

Russian Fuel Shortages Revive Tajikistan’s Search for Oil and Gas

On July 10, Tajikistan’s Energy Minister Daler Juma said the country had enough fuel to last two more months. This situation is due to Tajikistan’s dependence on Russian petroleum products, which are in short supply in Russia itself because of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Located in the southeast corner of Central Asia and ringed by mountains on three sides, Tajikistan has few options to replace those Russian supplies, so the Tajik authorities are preparing to try again to find domestic hydrocarbon supplies. Looking to Strike Oil at Home Estimates of the share of Tajikistan’s petroleum imports supplied by Russia range from 70% to 80%. Tajikistan’s head of civil aviation, Habibullo Nazarzoda, said on July 9 that his country is facing shortages of airplane fuel and is in talks with Turkmenistan. Russia has a prohibition on exporting aviation kerosene that runs from June 1 to November 30. Tajikistan does have hydropower and coal, but neither one of those helps with shortages at petrol stations, and much of the internal transport of people and goods in mountainous Tajikistan is done via the road network. So, Tajikistan is again looking at the potential to develop domestic hydrocarbon fields, this time with the help solely of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). On July 7, the head of the Tajik government’s Geological Department, Ilhom Oymuhammadzoda, said CNPC was already carrying out exploration at several potential hydrocarbon deposits in Tajikistan. “I think [CNPC] will present a progress report on the seismic survey operations by the end of the year,” Oymuhammadzoda told a press conference in Dushanbe. He named the Tajik Depression, in southwestern Tajikistan, and the Ferghana Basin, in northwestern Tajikistan, as two of the more promising sites. However, Oymuhammadzoda indicated that work in northern Tajikistan could require drilling down to a depth of 7,000 meters. Tajikistan’s Search for Oil and Gas Past studies of Tajikistan’s potential oil and gas fields point especially to the southwest of the country as a logical place to seek these hydrocarbons. Southwest Tajikistan is adjacent to gas and oil fields in southern Uzbekistan that have been producing for decades, to fields in northern Afghanistan, where exploration has confirmed commercial flows, and not too far east from the giant gas fields in Turkmenistan. Looking at a map, it seems logical that southwest Tajikistan is part of this same hydrocarbon structure. In 2008, Canadian company Tethys started exploring the Bokhtar area about 100 kilometers south of Dushanbe. Tethys found both oil and gas in the area. In 2012, the Canadian company estimated the area’s gross prospective resources at 8.5 billion barrels of oil and condensate and 3.22 trillion cubic metres of gas. For a small country like Tajikistan, it was potentially enormous, although these resources remained unconfirmed and commercially unproven. However, getting to that oil and gas required drilling wells that were 3,500 meters or deeper, which greatly added to production costs. In 2013, Gazprom International drilled a well at the Sarykamysh field in southwest Tajikistan that was...

fuel imports

Fuel Squeeze Leaves Kyrgyzstan Competing for Costly Alternatives

Kyrgyzstan is moving to secure alternative fuel supplies from China and Belarus as disruptions in Russia’s refining sector expose Bishkek’s dependence on a single supplier. The new arrangements may ease immediate pressure, but they also show how costly and limited Kyrgyzstan’s options remain. First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Daniyar Amangeldiyev said China has confirmed a contract to supply the first 3,000 tons of jet fuel, while negotiations are under way for an additional 5,000 tons of diesel fuel. The government has also signed agreements with Belarus covering 3,000 tons of jet fuel and approximately 10,000 tons of diesel. On July 1, the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) extended the zero customs duty regime within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) for gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, marine fuel, and other petroleum products for another year. EEC Minister of Trade Andrey Slepnev said the previous zero rates had expired on June 30 and that proposals from several member states to extend them were quickly coordinated. “The zero rates have been extended for another year,” he said. That buys time but does not remove the main risk. Russian refining disruptions, seasonal demand, and export controls could still reduce the flow of petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from alternative suppliers are also likely to come at higher prices and on less favorable terms than those traditionally offered by Moscow. Russia has been Kyrgyzstan’s primary fuel supplier for decades. The country began receiving Russian petroleum products at preferential prices on October 10, 2000, when the prime ministers of Russia and Kyrgyzstan, Mikhail Kasyanov and Amangeldy Muraliev, signed an intergovernmental agreement in Astana governing indirect taxation in bilateral trade. Since then, Kyrgyzstan has received basic petroleum products duty-free at domestic Russian prices. In 2011, then-adviser to the Kyrgyz prime minister Farid Niyazov told the news outlet 24.kg that Russia would supply all petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan indefinitely without export duties, except aviation fuel. “At present, Russia’s export duty on these fuel products is $245 per ton. You can imagine how much we would otherwise have to pay for fuel,” he said. The 2000 bilateral agreement was terminated in 2015 after Kyrgyzstan joined the EAEU. Since then, the country has operated under the union’s common customs rules as well as bilateral agreements with Russia. This has left Kyrgyzstan heavily dependent on a single supplier. According to official statements and industry estimates, more than 90% of the country’s fuel consumption for households and agriculture is currently covered by Russian imports. Despite Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s assurances that domestic fuel reserves remain sufficient, shortages began to emerge in Russia in early June. Russia has since moved to tighten exports further as refinery disruptions have continued. As a result, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers has begun searching for alternative suppliers while introducing daily monitoring of existing fuel deliveries. Rising gasoline and diesel prices had already prompted the government to introduce temporary state regulation of motor fuel prices in late May. It has since rolled...

Fuel Supply

Kyrgyzstan Eases State Fuel Price Controls as Supply Shortages Persist

Kyrgyzstan has partially rolled back its temporary state regulation of motor fuel prices, removing AI-95 gasoline from price controls and abandoning plans to impose maximum retail fuel prices in an effort to stabilize supplies. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the Kyrgyz government introduced temporary state regulation of fuel prices on May 25 amid continued increases in gasoline and diesel prices, driven largely by the country’s dependence on imports from Russia. The government had approved subsidies for imports of gasoline, diesel fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas through September 30, 2026, while setting benchmark import prices at $860 per ton for AI-92 gasoline, $940 per ton for AI-95 gasoline, $950 per ton for diesel fuel, and $575 per ton for liquefied petroleum gas. Under a new resolution signed on July 7 by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev, AI-95 gasoline has been removed from the list of socially significant goods subject to temporary state price regulation. The decision effectively cancels the state price controls introduced just two weeks earlier. It follows reports that AI-95 gasoline had disappeared from several filling stations in Bishkek. The July 7 resolution also abolishes the maximum allowable retail fuel prices established under the May 25 decree. According to the government, the changes are intended to ensure uninterrupted fuel supplies to consumers. The policy adjustment comes as Russia continues to tighten fuel exports. In recent weeks, several Russian regions have imposed restrictions on gasoline sales following reduced refinery output caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on oil-processing facilities. Moscow has already restricted gasoline exports and imposed a temporary ban on jet fuel exports. Kyrgyzstan remains heavily dependent on imported fuel. The country imports approximately 1.2 million tons of petroleum products annually, while domestic refineries meet only about 5% of national demand. Total annual fuel consumption is estimated at 1.6 million tons, with more than 90% supplied by Russia. First Deputy Prime Minister Daniyar Amangeldiyev told the 24.kg news agency that the government is actively diversifying fuel imports through negotiations with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, European suppliers, Türkiye, China, Russia, Belarus, and Azerbaijan. According to Amangeldiyev, China has confirmed a contract to supply the first 3,000 tons of jet fuel to Kyrgyzstan, while negotiations are underway for an additional 5,000 tons of diesel fuel. The Kyrgyz government has also signed agreements with Belarus covering 3,000 tons of jet fuel and approximately 10,000 tons of diesel fuel. The reversal shows how quickly price controls can collide with supply constraints in a market still heavily dependent on Russian fuel.

Fuel Exports

Kazakhstan Weighs Kyrgyz Fuel Request as Export Ban Extension Looms

Kazakhstan is considering Kyrgyzstan’s request for gasoline supplies following an official appeal from Bishkek, Deputy Energy Minister Kaiyrkhan Tutkyshbayev has said. At the same time, the Kazakh government plans to extend its ban on fuel exports until May 2027. In late June, Russia, which supplies around 90% of Kyrgyzstan’s fuel imports, imposed a full ban on exports of gasoline and jet fuel. In early July, Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy announced that it had begun negotiations with several countries to diversify fuel imports. Speaking after a government meeting on July 7, Tutkyshbayev confirmed that Kazakhstan had received an official request from Bishkek. “We have received an official request from the Kyrgyz side, and it is currently under consideration,” Tutkyshbayev said. “All decisions will be made with due regard to Kazakhstan’s national interests and domestic market balance. However, I can state officially that fulfilling such a request would not lead to higher fuel prices within Kazakhstan. We will review the request in the near future and provide our response.” The deputy minister did not specify the volumes requested. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan has also sent official requests to the relevant authorities in Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan as part of efforts to secure alternative fuel supplies following Russia’s export restrictions. Tutkyshbayev also said Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry had not received an official Russian request for fuel supplies, despite Reuters reporting earlier that Moscow was in talks to import about 50,000 metric tons of AI-92 gasoline from Kazakhstan after refinery outages and drone strikes cut Russian gasoline output by roughly 25%. Tutkyshbayev acknowledged a sharp increase in gasoline consumption in Kazakhstan’s three regions bordering Russia, West Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, and Aktobe, which may indicate cross-border fuel flows. “Some motorists install additional fuel tanks on their vehicles,” he said. “We are monitoring the situation closely, and together with other government agencies we have stepped up efforts to combat the illegal export of fuel from Kazakhstan.” Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is preparing to extend its existing ban on fuel exports from November 22, 2026, until May 22, 2027. A draft order published on the government’s Open NPA portal would prohibit exports of gasoline, diesel fuel, and certain petroleum products by road and rail, including shipments to fellow members of the Eurasian Economic Union. The draft also proposes a separate ban, from January 1 through June 30, 2027, on exports outside the Eurasian Economic Union customs territory of light distillates, jet fuel, diesel fuel, gas oil, toluene, xylene, and petroleum bitumen. The proposed restrictions underline the tension in Kazakhstan’s fuel policy: Astana wants to protect its domestic market in the short term, even as it plans major oil and petrochemical investments and has set a long-term goal of increasing fuel exports.

Energy Security

Central Asia’s Fuel Squeeze Becomes a Winter Energy Security Problem

Central Asia’s fuel squeeze is moving from filling stations into winter planning. Governments are now tracking gasoline and diesel, gas pipelines, coal deliveries, power imports, jet fuel, and emergency repair crews. Seasonal fuel and power stress is familiar across the region, but the current pressure - tied to Russia, the main supplier for several regional fuel flows - has arrived early. Russia’s own fuel crisis has sharpened the risk. Ukrainian drone attacks and repair work have cut refinery output, while export limits have pushed more Russian supplies back into the domestic market. Reuters reported queues, regional restrictions, and gasoline above 100 roubles a liter at some independent stations. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the strain on June 28. “You are well aware that problems for drivers and for businesses persist,” he said, adding that “the harvest depends on” keeping seasonal fuel schedules for farms. For Central Asia, Russian shortages travel through contracts, rail slots, import prices, and public nerves. Kyrgyzstan is among the most exposed. The country consumes about two million tons of fuels and lubricants each year, and almost 95% comes from Russia, according to Deputy Energy Minister Nasipbek Kerimov. “Due to the lack of adequate oil and gas production, we remain a country dependent on imports,” Kerimov said. Bishkek has asked Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan for help securing supplies. That dependence is now impacting households, farmers, and small transport firms. The cabinet has capped pump prices and set a subsidy mechanism through September 30. Kerimov said importers were seeing offers at several prices, but promised that “there should be no shortage on the domestic market.” Oil traders put AI-92 stocks at 30 to 45 days, while diesel remained available for harvest work. Kyrgyzstan is trying to buy time through domestic refining. The modernized Junda refinery in the Chuy Region has been pressed to raise gasoline output to 24,000 tons a month soon, then 50,000 tons a month by the end of 2026, with finished products directed to the domestic market. Those gains would help, but Russian supply still sets the pace. Uzbekistan has the Bukhara and Fergana oil refineries, the Altyaryk unit of the Fergana refinery, and the Uzbekistan GTL complex, but demand has still moved faster than domestic supply. In January-April 2026, gasoline imports reached 568,700 tons, worth $327.1 million, more than double the same period in 2025. Local refineries produced 417,500 tons over those four months. A shift away from AI-80 gasoline has also pushed drivers toward AI-92 and AI-95. The pressure reached the exchange in late June. AI-92 gasoline climbed to a record 13.919 million soums per ton on June 29, about $1,160, after an 11.8% rise since the start of the month. Jet fuel has become an issue, too. Uzbekistan Airways reduced some Russia flight frequencies in June, citing aviation fuel shortages and higher costs. Tashkent is now preparing for winter in concrete volumes. On July 6, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev reviewed measures for the 2026-2027 autumn-winter season. The plan includes replacing 53.7...

Fuel Shortage

Uzbekistan Faces Fuel Shortage Pressure as Imports Rise

Central Asia is facing a new wave of tension in the market for fuels and lubricants. Shortages of gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel have affected the entire region to varying degrees, but the situation is developing differently in each country. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the problem is one of direct import dependence. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which have their own production and refining capacity, are in a more stable position. However, rapidly growing domestic demand is increasingly tying them to imports. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan is tightening domestic controls, building up reserves ahead of refinery maintenance, and considering fuel imports from China to protect its own market. Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, has appealed to Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan for help in securing fuel supplies, as shortages inside Russia are placing additional pressure on the local fuel market. Uzbekistan’s refining system includes the Bukhara and Fergana oil refineries, the Altyaryk unit of the Fergana refinery, and the modern Uzbekistan GTL complex, which produces synthetic liquid fuels from natural gas. The system produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, oils, naphtha, bitumen, and liquefied gas. From January through May 2026, Uzbekistan imported 642 million liters of gasoline worth $373 million. Import volume was 84% higher than in the same period last year, while import value rose by 85%. Imports now cover nearly half of domestic demand. Domestic gasoline production during the five-month period totaled 502,200 tons, equivalent to about 670 million to 678 million liters. Output has declined in recent years, falling from 1.33 million tons in 2023 to 1.2 million tons in 2025. The pressure has also reached the domestic fuel exchange. In late June, AI-92 gasoline prices in Uzbekistan hit a record high, with one ton selling for 13.919 million soums. Since the start of June, prices have risen by about 11% to 12%. The steepest increase came in the first 10 days of the month. Supply on the exchange then fell sharply, from up to 7,700 tons in the first half of June to 1,600 to 2,400 tons in the second half. The price rise has already begun to affect retail fuel costs, especially in Tashkent. One reason for the imbalance was Uzbekistan’s phased reduction of AI-80 gasoline under an environmental reform. In May, Odil Temirov, deputy chairman of Uzbekneftegaz’s board for refining, said the Bukhara Oil Refinery would begin switching from AI-80 to AI-91 and AI-92 in November and December, with a full phase-out of AI-80 from the start of 2025. He said AI-80 accounted for 85% of output at the refinery, while AI-92 made up the remaining 15%, and that this ratio would begin to change in November. Demand quickly shifted toward AI-92 and AI-95, but domestic production has not yet adapted to the new consumption pattern. Additional pressure came from events in Russia, which remains one of the key suppliers of gasoline, refinery feedstock, and aviation fuel. Reduced output at Russian refineries, caused by repairs and the aftermath of attacks on energy...