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Kyrgyzstan Inflation Economic Growth GDP Investment Akylbek Japarov

Kyrgyzstan Reports Strong Economic Growth in Early 2025

Kyrgyzstan’s economy continued its upward trajectory in the first quarter of 2025, with GDP expanding by 13.1%, according to Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov. He credited the surge to positive developments across all key sectors prioritized by the government. The food industry posted remarkable growth of 71%, while the construction sector expanded by 69%. Investments in fixed capital jumped by 90% during the same period. A detailed economic overview published by the Ministry of Economy and Commerce highlighted that Kyrgyz businesses are adapting rapidly to shifting external conditions. The ministry also pointed to increased domestic demand and investment activity as key drivers of growth. "From January to March 2025, about 93% of total investments were directed toward mining, processing industries, information and communications, electricity and gas supply, and the construction of housing and educational institutions," the ministry stated. The construction sector alone contributed three percentage points to GDP growth. However, services remain the backbone of Kyrgyzstan’s economy, accounting for 4.5 percentage points of overall growth. Within the sector, trade made up 27.4%, transportation services 10.3%, and financial intermediation and insurance services another 10.3%. Annual inflation stood just below 7% in the first quarter, with average prices for consumer goods rising by 3.5% during the reporting period.

Economist opinion GDP Economic Growth Economy

Kyrgyzstan’s Economic Boom or Bust? Calls for Inclusive Growth Persist

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov declared late last year that the country’s economic growth had reached historic milestones, with GDP maintaining positive momentum. However, local economists remain skeptical about the broader impact of this growth. In 2020, Kyrgyzstan’s GDP stood at 639 billion KGS ($7.3 billion), according to official data. By the end of 2025, this figure is projected to reach 1.8 trillion KGS ($22 billion). Growth Without Inclusion In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, economist Nurgul Akimova acknowledged that the reported 9% GDP growth and the so-called “leopard’s leap” frequently mentioned by the government are positive developments. However, she stressed that for economic expansion to be meaningful for ordinary citizens, it must be inclusive. "Nine percent growth is not inclusive because it does not create additional jobs. The main drivers of our economic growth are construction, downstream industries, and the financial sector. These sectors do not contribute to improving human capital. In construction, for instance, a significant portion of costs goes toward imported building materials," Akimova explained. According to Akimova, Kyrgyzstan’s economy has followed an inertia-driven trajectory for the past 30 years, avoiding major shocks but also failing to achieve significant breakthroughs. She pointed out that if the garment sector were growing, it would have a greater impact, as it did 15 years ago when Kyrgyz-made clothing was exported to neighboring countries. "For example, a seamstress spends her income on education, healthcare, and consumption. By doing so, she contributes to the development of other inclusive sectors, benefiting society as a whole," Akimova said, adding that while the economy is expanding, it is not improving the welfare of citizens. A People-Centered Economy Akimova emphasized that economic policy should prioritize people’s wellbeing, as failure to do so could erode public trust in the government. She also criticized official comparisons of Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth with other countries, arguing that such assessments lack context. "Officials claim Kyrgyzstan is growing faster than others, but an economy that produces microchips and one that manufactures T-shirts are fundamentally different. These industries require distinct investment levels, equipment, and human capital." Kyrgyzstan’s economy is currently valued at approximately $14 billion. If the country were to sustain an annual 10% growth rate, as authorities suggest, GDP would increase by $1.4 billion per year. Akimova highlighted that this figure represents only 0.5% of Kazakhstan’s economic growth, 0.06% of Russia’s, and a mere 0.0006% of the United States’ GDP expansion. "When we hear claims that we are growing faster than others, we must consider the scale and complexity of economic processes," the economist concluded.

GDP Economic Growth Economy Investments

Uzbekistan’s Economy Grows 6.5%, Investments Reach $34.9 Billion in 2024

In 2024, Uzbekistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.5%, reaching $115 billion, according to Presidential Spokesperson Sherzod Asadov. The announcement was made during a presidential conference focused on investment and economic performance. Foreign investments surged by 1.6 times, totaling $34.9 billion, and 242 large and medium-sized projects worth $10 billion were launched. For the first time, the country’s exports reached $27 billion. According to the official report, the mining, oil and gas, chemical, and agriculture sectors exceeded their investment targets, achieving more than double their expected performance. This highlights the robust growth and prioritization of these key industries. Despite these achievements, challenges persist in several sectors: Textile Industry: Missed its investment target by $17 million. Uztransgaz and Uzmetkombinat: Investments dropped by half. Uzsuvtaminot: Experienced a 20% decrease in investments. Officials from these organizations have been issued strict warnings to improve their performance by the first quarter of 2025 or face further consequences. Additionally, several ministries underperformed in implementing grant plans: Ministries of Ecology, Agriculture, State Assets, Pharmaceuticals, and Forestry: Delivered less than 25% of their grant targets. Ministries of Construction, Transport, Culture, and Tourism: Secured less than $10 million in grants. Ministries responsible for Preschool and School Education, Health, Transport, Sports, Higher Education, Culture, Ecology, Agriculture, Digital Technologies, and Construction were criticized for failing to attract sufficient investments and grants, despite having significant opportunities to do so. The report also highlighted underwhelming investment figures from high-potential countries such as France, Japan, Italy, Hungary, Malaysia, and Spain, which collectively invested less than $100 million in Uzbekistan in 2024. This indicates untapped opportunities for economic partnerships and collaborative growth. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has outlined transformative plans to modernize state-owned railway and aviation sectors as part of the country’s long-term development strategy. These reforms aim to increase Uzbekistan’s GDP to $200 billion by 2030, setting an ambitious target for sustained economic growth.

EDB Growth Forecasts GDP Economic Growth Economy

EDB Forecasts 8.4% GDP Growth for Tajikistan in 2025

Tajikistan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 8.4% in 2025, driven by favorable trade and investment dynamics, rising gold export prices, and decreasing energy import costs, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). This optimistic forecast surpasses the Tajik government’s minimum expectation of 8.0% growth. The EDB predicts that inflation will rise to 5.9% in 2025, returning to the National Bank of Tajikistan’s (NBT) target range of 6.0% (+/- 2 percentage points) by the end of the year. Analysts attribute this inflationary uptick to strong domestic demand. In 2024, Tajikistan recorded a historic low inflation rate of 3.6% - the lowest since the country’s independence. However, a slight increase in the refinancing rate, by 1 percentage point, is expected as inflation adjusts back to the target range. The refinancing rate has remained at 9.0% since August 5, 2024. The EDB also forecasts a slight devaluation of the somoni, Tajikistan’s national currency, with the exchange rate expected to reach 11 somoni per US dollar by the end of 2025. This adjustment is attributed to higher imports and a decline in remittance volumes. Currently, the somoni trades at 10.9450 per dollar, reflecting a 0.2% appreciation against the dollar in 2024, according to data from the National Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The Times of Central Asia previously highlighted the main short-term risks for Tajikistan’s economy from 2024 to 2026, but the EDB’s projections signal a positive outlook for 2025. Key growth drivers, such as trade, investment, and favorable market conditions, are expected to bolster economic performance despite currency pressures. Despite the fact that the Government of Tajikistan claims the poverty level in the country has decreased (the poverty threshold is not specified), in reality a huge swathe of the male population is working abroad in an attempt to feed their families. Up to 40% of households in Tajikistan have at least one member working abroad. According to the World Bank-KNOMAD, migrants’ remittances to Tajikistan in 2022 amounted to 5.346 billion dollars (39.6% of the country’s GDP). This makes Tajikistan one of the most remittance-based economies in the world. This story was last updated on 10 January 2025 at 10:23GMT

EAEU Foreign trade turnover Export Foreign Trade GDP Government Trade

‘Made in Kyrgyzstan’ Program Aims to Boost Exports and Strengthen Global Presence

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Economy and Commerce has launched the National Export Program "Made in Kyrgyzstan" for 2025-2028. Coordinated by the Kyrgyz Export Center, the initiative aims to help domestic producers access international markets, enhance the country’s export potential, and establish the “Made in Kyrgyzstan” brand as a recognizable symbol abroad. Program Goals and Priorities The program focuses on increasing Kyrgyzstan’s export volumes and foreign trade revenues by strengthening the position of Kyrgyz-made goods in global markets. It prioritizes key industries, including textiles, food, jewelry, and halal products, with the goal of making Kyrgyz exports more competitive internationally. To achieve these objectives, the program will: Support local entrepreneurs by promoting participation in international exhibitions and trade fairs. Facilitate access to financing and preferential loans for exporters. Streamline bureaucratic processes to expedite export procedures. Ensure domestic products meet international quality standards and certification requirements. Additionally, the program emphasizes increasing the export of high value-added goods and diversifying Kyrgyzstan’s export portfolio to reduce its negative foreign trade balance. Foreign Trade Trends According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade turnover for January - October 2024 totaled $13.4 billion, marking a 6.4% increase compared to the same period in 2023. However, the trade balance remained negative, with exports accounting for 23.3% and imports for 76.7% of the total turnover. Key highlights include: Exports: Grew by 25.2% to $3.1 billion, largely driven by gold exports, which made up 34.1% of the total. Excluding gold, exports reached $2.1 billion, an increase of 21.9%. Imports: Rose by 1.8%, amounting to $10.3 billion. Trade with member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia - amounted to $4.2 billion, a 13.7% increase. Russia (71.8%) and Kazakhstan (26.4%) remained Kyrgyzstan’s largest trading partners within the EAEU. Meanwhile, trade with countries outside the EAEU reached $9.2 billion during the same period. Strengthening Export Potential The "Made in Kyrgyzstan" program aspires to boost exports of diversified, high-quality products while addressing the country’s trade deficit. By empowering local businesses, improving export infrastructure, and fostering global competitiveness, the initiative represents a significant step forward for Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth and international trade ambitions.

Shadow Economy Economy Government GDP statistics

Kyrgyzstan Reports Decrease in Shadow Economy

Kyrgyzstan’s non-observed (shadow) economy, excluding the agricultural sector, accounted for 19.2% of GDP in 2023, marking a 1% decrease from 2022’s 20.2%, according to the latest data from the National Statistical Committee. The Committee attributes this improvement primarily to reductions in shadow activities within key sectors: wholesale and retail trade and motor vehicle repair by 0.5%, construction by 0.4%, and transportation and cargo storage by 0.2%. Historical data reveals a steady decline in the shadow economy’s share of GDP over recent years, estimated at 20.4% in 2021, 20.1% in 2020, and 22.8% in 2019. Shadow economic activities in Kyrgyzstan are concentrated in sectors such as trade, car repair, transportation, construction, processing industries, hospitality, and various services. Discrepancies persist, however, in shadow economy estimates. In January 2024, Minister of Economy and Commerce Daniyar Amangeldiev noted that international financial institutions assessed Kyrgyzstan’s shadow economy as comprising 60% to 70% of GDP. He explained this divergence by citing differences in methodologies used by the National Statistical Committee and international organizations to calculate the informal economy's size. Although the National Statistical Committee has yet to publish its shadow economy assessment for 2024, Minister Amangeldiyev recently highlighted the positive impacts of a shrinking shadow economy. He credited it, alongside growing trade volumes, with contributing to Kyrgyzstan’s GDP growth last year. For context, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration estimates Kyrgyzstan’s informal economy at 25% to 72% of GDP, underscoring the challenge of accurately quantifying this sector.