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New Earthquake Jolts Almaty, Highlighting Central Asia’s Seismic Threat

Many residents of Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, have known since childhood what to do in the event of an earthquake. Children are taught to stand near load-bearing walls or structural beams in their homes, as these areas are considered more resistant during tremors. Many households keep an emergency kit with water, food and blankets in an accessible place. Such precautions are not excessive: Almaty experiences regular seismic activity. The latest significant tremor occurred on February 17, with an epicenter located 74 kilometers northeast of the city. The earthquake registered a magnitude of 5.0. City residents left their homes and offices and gathered outside, a familiar reaction in a city long accustomed to seismic risk. National alert system In May 2024, Almaty introduced the Mass Alert system to notify residents of emergencies, including earthquakes, floods, and man-made disasters. The system uses Cell Broadcast technology to send text notifications to all mobile subscribers within a specific geographic area, regardless of their mobile operator. Because messages are transmitted through cell towers rather than individual calls or messages, the system is designed to avoid overloading mobile networks during emergencies. It is integrated with 28 seismic stations. Many experts say the system’s launch followed the January 2024 earthquake, which was felt across southern Kazakhstan. Almaty experienced several tremors measuring up to magnitude 5.0, triggering widespread panic. Traffic jams stretching for kilometers formed on roads leading out of the city. Forty-four people sought medical attention, most of them injured while attempting to exit buildings quickly. Scientists warn that a powerful and destructive earthquake in the region is inevitable, although the timing cannot be predicted. Almaty is located in a zone rated at up to 10 points on the MSK-64 seismic intensity scale. Each year, up to 200 minor tremors are recorded within an 80-kilometer radius of the city. Earthquakes with magnitudes between 2.0 and 4.0 are considered typical. Approximately 30 tectonic faults run through the city and its surroundings, more than 60% of them in mountainous areas. Experts estimate that, given current dense and high-rise construction, as many as 30% of buildings could be destroyed in the event of an earthquake measuring 9-10 points in intensity. During the Soviet period, buildings taller than nine stories were generally prohibited in the city. The notable exception was the 25-story Kazakhstan Hotel, which was constructed with seismic reinforcement measures. Today, high-rise construction has expanded significantly, including in some of the city’s more seismically vulnerable foothill areas. The emergency warning system does not predict earthquakes in advance; it issues alerts only once tremors have already been detected. The system has been activated during several real seismic events. Seismological predictions In Kazakhstan, official forecasts are issued by the Institute of Seismology. At the same time, attempts at earthquake prediction have occasionally emerged outside the scientific mainstream. One of the most prominent figures associated with such efforts is biophysicist Viktor Inyushin. In the 1990s, he appeared in the media describing experiments aimed at predicting earthquakes by observing crushed peas, acorns, barley seeds,...

Revolution

Kyrgyzstan’s Revolutions Since Independence: Three Uprisings That Remade the State

Since gaining independence in 1991, Kyrgyzstan has experienced three major uprisings that removed presidents and reset the political system. The events in 2005, 2010, and 2020 did not follow one script, but shared familiar triggers: disputed elections, corruption, rising living costs, and a belief that the state had been captured by a narrow circle. Kyrgyzstan began its post-Soviet life with a reputation for relative openness. Askar Akayev initially presented himself as a reform-minded leader, but by the early 2000s, public frustration had grown over perceived corruption and patronage. Political competition increasingly revolved around money, influence networks, and regional loyalties. Weak institutions made leadership transitions risky, and street politics became a recurring instrument of change. The 2005 Tulip Revolution: The Akayev Era Ends The first upheaval occurred in spring 2005, following parliamentary elections widely criticized by international observers. The OSCE/ODIHR final report on the February–March 2005 parliamentary elections documented serious irregularities that undermined confidence in the vote: Protests began in the south and spread to Bishkek. On March 24, 2005, Akayev fled the country as demonstrators seized key government buildings. His resignation was later formalized from abroad. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on April 4, 2005, that Akayev had signed a resignation agreement intended to stabilize the situation and pave the way for new elections. Kurmanbek Bakiyev emerged as interim leader and later won the July 2005 presidential election. The OSCE/ODIHR assessment of that vote noted improvements compared with the parliamentary elections but highlighted continuing structural weaknesses. The 2010 April Revolution: Bakiyev Overthrown By 2010, public anger was focused on rising utility prices and the concentration of power around Bakiyev’s family. The International Crisis Group’s report Kyrgyzstan: A Hollow Regime Collapses detailed how economic grievances and corruption helped spark a violent uprising. On April 7, 2010, clashes between protesters and security forces in Bishkek left dozens dead and injured, with the official death toll later revised to 99. Bakiyev fled the country, and a referendum later that year shifted Kyrgyzstan toward a parliamentary system designed to reduce presidential dominance. The transition produced a more plural political environment, though corruption and instability persisted. In June 2010, interethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, particularly around Osh, caused significant loss of life and displacement, deepening divisions and reshaping the political climate. The 2020 Upheaval: Election Protests and Rapid Power Shift Kyrgyzstan’s third major uprising followed disputed parliamentary elections on October 4, 2020, when allegations of vote buying triggered mass protests. The Central Election Commission annulled the results, plunging the country into a political crisis. President Sooronbay Jeenbekov resigned on October 15, 2020, with Reuters reporting that “newly sprung from jail,” Sadyr Japarov had consolidated power amid the turmoil. The OSCE/ODIHR assessment of the January 2021 presidential election and constitutional referendum noted that the vote occurred against the backdrop of political upheaval following the annulled parliamentary elections. Japarov won the presidency in January 2021, and a new constitution entered into force in May 2021, strengthening presidential powers and reshaping the political system. Why Revolutions Keep Happening...

Family Album of 20th Century Kazakh Leader Mustafa Shokay Added to National Museum

The National Museum in Astana has acquired a rare and historically significant family photo album belonging to Mustafa Shokay, a leader of the Alash Orda political movement of the 1920s that strove for Kazakh autonomy, and his wife, Maria Shokay. The original album was formally donated to the museum by Shokay’s relative, Gulbarshyn Zairova. For decades, the album was safeguarded by the distinguished violinist Alim Almat (born Galymzhan Absalyamov), who survived wartime imprisonment with the help of Mustafa Shokay and later became a spiritual son to Maria Shokay. Almat eventually entrusted this valuable heirloom to Shokay scholar Bakyt Sadykova, who in turn passed it on to Zairova in 2022. [caption id="attachment_41949" align="aligncenter" width="225"] From the Shokay family archive[/caption] Reflecting on the importance of the donation, Zairova said: “This artifact was preserved for many years by Alim Almat, the first violinist who survived captivity during the war thanks to Mustafa Shokay and who was taken under the care of Maria Shokay after the war. Following Kazakhstan’s independence, Alim Almat returned to the country and entrusted Mustafa Shokay’s typewriter, three seals used during the publication of the Yash Turkistan newspaper, the couple’s wedding portrait, and this album to Shokay scholar Bakyt Sadykova. In 2022, the album was entrusted to me, and on December 25, 2025, marking the 135th anniversary of Mustafa Shokay's birth, it found its permanent home at the National Museum in Astana. Honoring history means safeguarding the future.” [caption id="attachment_41950" align="aligncenter" width="225"] From the Shokay family archive[/caption] Mustafa Shokay was a statesman who dedicated his life to the struggle for the freedom and equality of the Kazakh people. Born in 1890 in the Syr Darya region, he showed remarkable intellectual ability and a passion for learning from an early age. [caption id="attachment_41951" align="aligncenter" width="226"] From the Shokay family archive[/caption] He studied law in St. Petersburg and was fluent in Kazakh, Russian, Turkish, and French. Equipped with deep knowledge and a strong sense of justice, Shokay devoted himself to defending the rights of his people. [caption id="attachment_41952" align="aligncenter" width="225"] From the Shokay family archive[/caption] Amid the political transformations of 1917, Shokay emerged as a leading advocate for the future of Turkestan. He played a central role in the establishment of the Turkestan Autonomy, envisioning a homeland where Kazakhs and other Turkic peoples could live freely and with equal rights. [caption id="attachment_41953" align="aligncenter" width="226"] From the Shokay family archive[/caption] Although this vision was never fully realized, Shokay continued his mission in exile following the rise of Soviet power. Living in Europe, he remained deeply connected to his homeland, publishing newspapers and journals, writing influential works, and drawing international attention to the struggles of the Turkic world. Mustafa Shokay passed away in 1941, yet his ideals of freedom, dignity, and national self-determination continue to resonate today.

Kazakh-Spanish Film La Tregua to Premiere on Netflix

Following its premiere at the San Sebastian International Film Festival this fall, where it received a special award, the Kazakh-Spanish film La Tregua (The Truce) has been released in cinemas in Spain and Kazakhstan. It is now set to become the first Spanish-language film featuring Kazakhstan to appear on Netflix. “Although critics say the film is not for popcorn viewing, given its focus on little-known and tragic chapters in the histories of Kazakhstan and Spain, its release has generated strong emotional responses in both countries,” said Yerlan Bekhozhin, a prominent Kazakh journalist and co-producer of the film, in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. “It speaks to the timeless struggle of human confrontation.” The film presents a Kazakh narrative about Spaniards caught on opposing sides of ideological conflict. “It is a story from the last century, yet it addresses the present day,” Bekhozhin said. “When we look at today’s world, it’s clear that people lack the ability to engage in dialogue. The main message of the film is: There is always a way to negotiate.” Netflix is expected to stream the film in 2026. Distribution discussions are also underway for theatrical releases in Mexico and other Spanish-speaking countries in Latin America. [caption id="attachment_41648" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Still from La Tregua[/caption] From Karaganda to the Screen The story is rooted in the history of Karlag, the Karaganda labor camp that operated in Kazakhstan from 1937 to 1959. Victims of Stalinist repression from across the Soviet Union, including foreign nationals, were imprisoned there for dissent, free expression, or as victims of denunciations. The idea for the film came from Spanish producer César Benítez, inspired by an event from over 30 years ago. During the Soviet era, the identities of Spanish citizens imprisoned in Karlag were kept secret. After Kazakhstan gained independence, its government handed the list of repressed Spaniards to the King of Spain, a gesture that sparked widespread attention in Spain, allowing many families to finally discover the fate of their relatives. Years earlier, the Spanish documentary, The Forgotten in Karaganda, had drawn significant attention to the subject. Now, Benítez has transformed the story into a feature film. “The title The Truce is deeply relevant today, at a time when peace requires people to sit at the same table,” said Bekhozhin. [caption id="attachment_41650" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Still from La Tregua[/caption] Kazakh Identity on a Global Stage Bekhozhin also emphasized the film’s role in portraying Kazakh identity. “Its global release will introduce the world to the law of the steppe, the law of hospitality,” he said. “Kazakhs have long demonstrated empathy forged under harsh conditions. It’s part of our national character to welcome others, regardless of nationality or faith.” One scene in the film shows a Kazakh family near the camp inviting Spanish prisoners into their home and setting a traditional dastarkhan, a generous table of lamb-based dishes. The prisoners are seated in the place of honor, or torge, in keeping with Kazakh custom. “In the film, the hostess explains that when...

The Contested Legacy of Kazakhstan’s Independence Day: From Sovereignty to Unrest and Reinvention

On December 16, 2025, Kazakhstan marks the 34th anniversary of its independence. The story of this national holiday mirrors the nation’s own complex path toward sovereignty and statehood. A Difficult Legacy On December 16, 1991, Kazakhstan adopted the Law “On State Independence of the Republic of Kazakhstan,” officially becoming the last Soviet republic to leave the USSR. The date came at the tail end of the so-called “parade of sovereignties,” when other republics had already declared independence. This delay led to a popular saying: “Kazakhstan turned off the lights in the USSR.” In the early years of independence, the holiday was celebrated widely, often with several days off. Yet the date also evokes painful memories. Just five years earlier, in December 1986, the capital city of Alma-Ata (now Almaty) witnessed what are now known as Jeltoqsan köterılısı - the December Events. On December 16, 1986, the Communist Party of Kazakhstan abruptly dismissed First Secretary Dinmukhamed Konaev and replaced him with Gennady Kolbin, a party official from the Russian city of Ulyanovsk with no ties to the republic. This Moscow-imposed decision sparked protests by students and young people that turned violent. While the full causes and consequences remain partially unexplored, the uprising is widely seen as an early expression of resistance to Soviet central control and the imposition of non-Kazakh leadership. The protests were brutally suppressed. For several days, unrest continued in the city, with some incidents fueled by ethnic tensions. In the years since, the December Events have become symbolic of both state repression and the early stirrings of Kazakh nationalism. Because of the proximity of dates, many citizens continue to conflate the date of independence with the December Events. For years, the national holiday was therefore overshadowed by grief and division. Unrest in the Oil Region Independence Day was further marred in 2011 by violent unrest in the oil-rich Mangistau region after months of unresolved labor disputes. On December 16 of that year, striking workers from the OzenMunaiGas company in the town of Zhanaozen clashed with police after demanding higher wages. The protests escalated into riots, with government buildings, hotels, and vehicles set ablaze. ATMs were looted, and a state of emergency was declared. Official figures state that about 20 people were killed and over 100 were injured. The Zhanaozen tragedy underscored deep socioeconomic disparities, particularly in regions rich in resources but lacking infrastructure and basic services. From Old to New Kazakhstan Over time, Independence Day became closely associated with unrest and national trauma. Analysts suggest that full investigations into the December 1986 and 2011 events were hindered by the political legacy of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president. Nazarbayev held senior posts during the Soviet period and later presided over the country during the Zhanaozen crackdown. In June 2019, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev succeeded Nazarbayev as president and launched a platform of gradual political reform. However, his efforts were reportedly obstructed by entrenched elites aligned with the Nazarbayev era, often referred to as “Old Kazakhstan.” Public discontent boiled over again in January...

From Medieval Persia to Modern Kazakhstan: Decolonizing History

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s recent visit to Kazakhstan might have appeared routine amid a series of diplomatic engagements by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in 2025. Yet one element of the visit stood out for Tokayev, a gift of 27 ancient Persian manuscripts, which were immediately put on public display in Astana’s National Museum. Together, the two presidents opened the exhibition titled The History of the Great Steppe in Iranian Sources, highlighting long-standing historical ties between Persian states and the Kazakh steppe. Speaking at a joint briefing, Tokayev emphasized the significance of the manuscripts, which he said contain historical accounts affirming the Kazakhs as a "brave people" and detailing diplomatic relations between the Kazakh khans and Iranian shahs. “Close relations were established between Tauke Khan and Shah Sultan Hussein,” Tokayev noted. “Records show embassies met in Moscow, and the Iranian ambassador visited the Kazakh steppe. Abul Khair Khan sent an envoy to Nadir Shah to foster diplomatic ties,” he said, underlining the depth of historical relations. Tokayev also referenced the cultural and linguistic connections between the two peoples. The taikazan (large ceremonial cauldron) in the mausoleum of Khoja Ahmed Yasawi in Turkestan, he noted, was crafted by the Iranian master Abdul-Aziz Sharafuddin Tebrizi. Persian has left a linguistic imprint on the Kazakh language, with estimates suggesting Persian-origin words comprise 4% of the vocabulary, including astana (capital), paida (benefit), oraza (fast), and dәri (medicine). Tokayev further cited the Persian epic Shahnameh by Ferdowsi as culturally significant to the peoples of Turan, adding that Kazakh poet Abai was familiar with Persian literature. According to Tokayev, the newly acquired manuscripts contain historical analyses of the socio-economic and political conditions of the 18th-century Kazakh Khanate, including interactions with neighboring powers, records on Turkestan, and reports on Russian imperial activities in the region. The documents also reference resource extraction, coal, iron, copper, lead, and turquoise, on Kazakh territory. [caption id="attachment_40893" align="aligncenter" width="750"] Image: Akorda[/caption] “This is a very valuable gift. We will present this exhibition to the Kazakh public and promote it widely in the media,” Tokayev told reporters. “The documents contain previously unknown historical material. I think this will be useful for our compatriots.” The Ministry of Culture and Information, which organized the exhibition, confirmed that the manuscripts substantiate centuries-old ties between Kazakhstan and Iran, including evidence of trade and diplomatic exchanges along the Silk Road and archival references to intergovernmental negotiations and ambassadorial visits. Tokayev’s enthusiasm for the manuscripts is closely linked to Kazakhstan’s broader effort to “decolonize” its national history. The country is currently preparing a new seven-volume historical account under the editorial leadership of State Advisor Yerlan Karin. This project aims to reposition Kazakhstan not simply as a site of ancient states, but as an independent cultural and political center that influenced the broader region. “Kazakhstan is presented as a hub for civilizational development,” Karin explained. “This is our methodological innovation.” Previously, Kazakhstan’s history was largely framed within the narrative of the Russian Empire and Soviet rule. The current academic effort seeks to...