Mixed Picture: Perceptions of China in Central Asia

China’s growing presence in Central Asia is seen as an economic opportunity by many in the region, but is also viewed with concern by others who fear so-called debt traps and land grabs. A new report on those perceptions of China stresses that there is no overarching Central Asian viewpoint and points to nuance in attitudes among the different countries. The study by the Central Asia Barometer, a polling group that has said it will suspend operations on December 1 because of insecurity and other obstacles to carrying out its work, is significant because a lot of news about China and Central Asia focuses on official pronouncements by governments and business groups. Assessing public opinion can be more of a challenge in countries with a top-down tradition of leadership. “Favorability towards China varies widely across countries, with younger generations in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan generally viewing China’s involvement more positively, particularly in areas like technology and investment,” the Central Asia Barometer said. “Older generations in these countries tend to be more skeptical, though. In Turkmenistan, the older population is more optimistic about China’s role, especially with regard to Chinese workers and investment.” The non-governmental group also noted “a decline or even negative favorability” in perceptions of China among people in Uzbekistan. The study, titled “Beyond the Silk Road” and released on Friday, is based on multiple surveys of opinions of China between 2017 and 2023 in four Central Asian states -Kazakhstan,  Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and  Uzbekistan. There was no data from Tajikistan. Perceptions of China depended on demographic factors such as ethnicity, age and gender, as well as the impact of specific Chinese infrastructure projects, and sources of information. Content on social media, for example, tended to improve attitudes toward Chinese business ventures. As of 2024, China has surpassed Russia as the top trading partner for most countries in Central Asia and is a major source of foreign investment and loans, a potential windfall that is tempered by concern about a lack of transparency in Chinese business practices. A Caspian Policy Institute analysis that was published in August explored negative perceptions of China. In July, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, architect of the Belt and Road economic initiative, traveled to Kazakhstan for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security group whose founding members include several Central Asian countries. There, Xi celebrated Chinese collaboration with President Vladimir Putin of Russia, the region’s other traditional power. Then he visited Tajikistan, a security partner that borders China and Afghanistan. The Central Asia Barometer said its data indicated a decline among some Central Asian populations in favorable views of Russia, coinciding with a change in feelings about China. “In 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, an upward shift in favorability toward China in Kazakhstan was observed while at the same time a pronounced drop in Russia’s favorability was noted,” it noted. Even so, China is not expected to supplant Russia’s longstanding influence in Central Asia. A commentary published by the Royal United Services Institute in early...

How Central Asia Is Shifting From Russia Towards Turkey

For Turkey, a NATO member and EU hopeful, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is an instrument that helps Ankara increase its presence in the strategically important region of Central Asia. For Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, the Turkish-dominated group seems to be a tool that allows them to achieve their economic goals, while also continuing to distance themselves from Russia. Although Moscow still has a relatively strong foothold in Central Asia, it does not seem able to prevent the growing role of the Organization of Turkic States in the post-Soviet space. This entity – whose members are Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan, while Turkmenistan, Hungary, and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus hold observer status – has the potential to eventually serve as a counterbalance not only to Russian, but also Chinese influence in the region. Since its foundation in 2009, the OTS has held ten summits of its leaders. Over this period, the intergovernmental organization’s working bodies have also convened dozens of times. On November 5-6 in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, the OTS heads of states will meet for the eleventh time to discuss the future of the Turkic world. Although the agenda has yet to be announced, it is believed that the OTS leaders will seek to strengthen economic cooperation between its members. Currently, their major trade partners are nations outside the bloc. For instance, Turkey’s largest trading partner is Germany, Azerbaijan’s is Italy, while China has recently become Kazakhstan’s biggest trade partner with bilateral trade hitting $31.5 billion. For neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, China and Russia remain the most important economic partners. One of the group’s major problems is the fact that its members, excluding Turkey, are landlocked countries heavily-dependent on Russia and China geographically. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, as major energy exporters, rely on oil and gas pipelines traversing Russian territory to reach their customers in Europe. It is, therefore, no surprise that the Organization of Turkic States governments’ agreed in September to create a simplified customs corridor, aiming at reducing the number of documents required for customs operations and customs procedures between OTS member states. In other words, they plan to increase trade among themselves. According to Omer Kocaman, OTS Deputy Secretary-General, the Turkic nations are also looking to “continue cooperation to stimulate positive changes in their financial systems.” That is why the organization has recently launched the Turkic Investment Fund – the first joint financial institution for economic integration of the Turkic countries, with an initial capital of $500 million. Kyrgyzstan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry announced on October 17 that, starting in January 2025, the Turkic Investment Fund will begin financing major joint projects in OTS nations. However, in July, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the current structure of the Organization of Turkic States does not meet its established goals, and that its budget is insufficient for their implementation. In order to change that, on October 19, ministers of economy and trade of the OTS nations met in Bishkek to...