Our People > Aliya Haidar

Aliya Haidar

Journalist

Aliya Haidar is a Kazakhstani journalist. She started her career in 1998, and has worked in the country's leading regional and national publications ever since.

Articles

Funding investigation NGOs USAID Media

Kazakhstan Investigates Recipients of USAID Funding

Following the cancellation of USAID funding, the Kazakhstani government and parliament are scrutinizing the recipients of U.S. financial assistance. The issue has sparked significant public debate and online discussions. Deputies Demand Explanations On March 10, the U.S. administration announced the cancellation of 83% of USAID programs. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated: “After a six-week review, we are officially canceling 83% of USAID programs. The 5,200 contracts now canceled spent tens of billions of dollars in ways that did not serve (and in some cases even harmed) the core national interests of the United States.” Earlier, on March 5, deputies from the People's Party of Kazakhstan (PPK) formally requested that the Minister of National Economy and the Minister of Justice conduct an audit of foreign funding for non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Lawmakers called for transparency regarding project financing, allocated amounts, and fund usage. According to the deputies, some USAID-funded programs contradicted traditional Kazakhstani values, particularly those related to LGBT rights and feminist movements. Reports indicate that members of the parliamentary majority faction, Amanat, also supported the request. Government Investigation Underway The government's position remained unclear until March 12, when Respublika newspaper reported that Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Jumangarin had responded to the Mazhilis on behalf of the Cabinet of Ministers. Respublika is associated with Mukhtar Ablyazov, a fugitive oligarch sentenced in absentia to a lengthy prison term in Kazakhstan. According to the report, 28 long-term USAID programs were active in Kazakhstan under bilateral agreements in 2024. In total, USAID allocated $26.5 million for projects implemented in the country between 2023 and 2024. These initiatives covered sectors such as the economy, energy, healthcare, civil society, and media. Some projects extended beyond Kazakhstan, impacting other Central Asian nations. Among the NGOs operating under USAID programs in 2024-2025 were: Public Foundation "Desenta" NGO "Kadyr-Kasiyet" Representative Office of Eurasia Foundation in Kazakhstan Representative Office of Winrock International Representative Office of Internews Network Representative Office of the American Bar Association Additionally, several government agencies collaborated with USAID. Jumangarin noted that, under Kazakhstani law, recipients of foreign funding must publish annual reports on how the funds are used. He assured deputies that the verification of USAID-funded projects would continue under a working group established by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, led by Murat Nurtleu. Funding Details Emerge Further details surfaced on March 14, with reports indicating that USAID had canceled contracts in Central Asia, including Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Two contracts in Kazakhstan were reportedly worth $2.35 million and $3.35 million. These funds were designated for the projects “Strengthening Civic Participation in Kazakhstan” and “Strengthening Human Rights and Equality.” The latter aimed to support LGBT organizations in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in advocating for human rights. This information was cited from an official USAID document. Additional media reports revealed a list of USAID grantees in 2024, including: ArtKoshe PF The YouTube channel "Hyperborey" Oksana Gabitova (Akulova) Vlast Media Group LLP DEPPA podcast Täuelhsız project Tasadagy Omir project Aftertutor IP, an online magazine focused on...

1 month ago

Kazakhstan Migration Migration Trends Skilled Labor Chinese Migration

Kazakhstan’s Migration Trends: Growth in Skilled Labor, No Signs of Chinese Influx

A positive migration trend is emerging in Kazakhstan, with new data indicating a significant increase in net migration. In 2024, the country recorded a migration balance of 17,200 people, an 85% increase from the previous year. The gap between arrivals and departures expanded 2.3 times, with 30,000 people moving to Kazakhstan compared to 12,800 leaving the country. Experts from the Institute of Public Policy highlighted that Kazakhstan’s emigration rate has reached a historic low in contrast to outflows observed in other countries. In 2024, net migration losses were significantly higher in Georgia (-39,200), Israel (-18,200), Uzbekistan (-14,300), and Bulgaria (-9,200). Kazakhstan has seen a significant reduction in emigration. In the early 2000s, the annual outflow was around 289,000 people, but by 2024, this number had dropped to the aforementioned 12,800. Meanwhile, the inflow of migrants continues to rise. Last year, 12,200 people arrived from Uzbekistan, 8,100 from Russia, 2,000 from China, 1,400 from Mongolia, and 1,100 from Turkmenistan. Additionally, several hundred people from Turkey, Germany, Georgia, the United States, and South Korea also relocated to Kazakhstan. Currently, 13,000 foreign specialists are employed in Kazakhstan’s economy, including 5,300 in construction, 2,600 in industry, and 700 in agriculture. The country is also attracting international students, some of whom choose to stay after graduation, suggesting that Kazakhstan is on track to become a leading destination for skilled professionals in Central Asia and the CIS. In November 2023, Kazakhstan and China implemented a visa-free regime, allowing short-term travel between the two countries. However, this agreement does not grant Chinese citizens the right to work, study, or engage in missionary activities in Kazakhstan. Despite this, social media was flooded with concerns that millions of Chinese citizens would move to Kazakhstan, take jobs, and even claim territory. Experts dismissed these fears as unfounded, arguing that the visa-free regime was primarily designed to boost trade and tourism rather than encourage large-scale migration. More than a year and a half has passed since the agreement came into effect, and no such wave of migration has occurred. Political scientist Marat Shibutov criticized the initial panic, stating: “Those who spread fear about mass Chinese migration should look in the mirror because nothing has happened. The Chinese do not need to come here.” According to Shibutov, young and ambitious Chinese migrants prefer destinations such as Singapore, the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. Official data further debunks fears of Chinese migration. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the number of Chinese citizens moving to Kazakhstan permanently has been steadily decreasing since 2017. Most of those who do relocate are ethnic Kazakhs returning to their ancestral homeland, a process actively encouraged by the Kazakh government through state programs for repatriates, known as Kandas. The figures speak for themselves. In 2017, 3,000 Chinese citizens moved to Kazakhstan. By 2023, this number had dropped to just 416, of whom 398 were ethnic Kazakhs and only four were ethnic Chinese. Additionally, the vast majority of repatriated ethnic Kazakhs, 63.5%, came from Uzbekistan, while fewer than...

2 months ago

Oil Production Agreement OPEC

Kazakhstan Balances OPEC+ Compliance with Bold 2025 Oil Surge

Kazakhstan has reaffirmed its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement on oil production volumes while simultaneously planning to increase production in 2025, signaling a growing influence on the international cartel despite not being a member. In February, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry issued a statement confirming its adherence to the OPEC+ agreement. “Kazakhstan will take the necessary measures in 2025 and 2026 to fulfill its commitments and compensate for overproduction in 2024,” the statement read. The government acknowledged that production would increase in 2024 due to the expansion of the Tengiz field but emphasized the importance of honoring OPEC+ commitments. Kazakhstan also pledged to engage in negotiations within the framework of international law. In March, major oil producers, including ExxonMobil, Total, and Shell, agreed to reduce oil production in Kazakhstan to align with OPEC+ requirements. “We have set quite a serious task for them to reduce oil production in Kazakhstan to achieve the planned parameters. The conversation was productive, and we did not receive any refusals,” Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev stated. Similar assurances were made in April 2024, even after the country exceeded its March quota by 131,000 barrels per day. Planned Production Increase Despite these commitments, Kazakhstan plans to produce over 96.2 million tons of oil and gas condensate in 2025, marking a 9.7% increase from the previous year’s 87.7 million tons. According to Energy Minister Satkaliyev, Atyrau Region is expected to produce 57.4 million tons (+9.1%), Mangistau Region 17.8 million tons (+7.2%), West Kazakhstan Region 12.9 million tons (+4.9%), while Aktobe Region’s output is projected to decline slightly to 4.7 million tons (-2.1%). Industry experts note that this decision has caused friction with OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia. Oleg Chervinsky, a columnist for the Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan. Facts and Comments Telegram channel attributes the production increase primarily to the expansion of the Tengiz field, which is set to begin operations in the second quarter of 2025 with investments totaling $533 million. Additional investments of $144 million are being made at Karachaganak, while work continues on the offshore Kalamkas-Sea-Khazar project. Kazakhstan’s Growing Influence Chervinsky argues that Kazakhstan has become a key player in OPEC+ despite its non-membership. In March, OPEC+ decided to increase oil production from April by approximately 138,000 barrels per day, the first such decision since 2022. The move came amid sluggish global demand and U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for Saudi Arabia to boost production. According to Reuters, Kazakhstan’s excess production played a significant role in OPEC+’s decision. Three sources within the cartel reported that several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, were “outraged” by Kazakhstan’s record-breaking production levels and demanded that the country compensate for the overproduction. However, as Chervinsky points out, the cartel has no direct enforcement mechanisms over Kazakhstan, and the government remains committed to its plan to increase production by nearly 10% in 2025. With its ability to influence OPEC+ decisions while maintaining production independence, Kazakhstan is emerging as an increasingly formidable player in the global oil market.

2 months ago

Tax Burdens e-Commerce Tax Central Asia

Foreign E-Commerce Platforms in Central Asia Face New Tax Burdens

Local business owners argue that foreign marketplaces enjoy unfair competitive advantages. To address this, Central Asian authorities plan to impose new tax requirements. For consumers, this move could mean higher inflation. Unequal Conditions In February, members of Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis highlighted that foreign marketplaces pay four times less in taxes than their local counterparts. Deputies from the Ak Zhol party, which advocates for business interests, have proposed requiring foreign e-commerce platforms to register with Kazakhstan’s tax authorities and pay value-added tax (VAT) on revenue from local buyers. This proposal targets major marketplaces such as Temu, Amazon, and AliExpress. In 2023, foreign marketplaces contributed just 4.8% of their turnover to Kazakhstan’s treasury, leading to an estimated budget shortfall of tens of millions of dollars. By contrast, Kazakhstani marketplaces face a significantly higher fiscal burden, paying an average of 16.3% in taxes. Local entrepreneurs using domestic platforms may pay up to 62% in various fees and levies, lawmakers claim. They argue that this imbalance undermines the competitiveness of local businesses, leading to factory closures and job losses. A study by the Alliance of Technological Companies Qaztech found that 20% of Kazakhstani consumers currently shop exclusively on foreign platforms. Without government intervention, this share could exceed 50% by 2029, resulting in substantial budgetary losses. “Pay Up or Leave” In January, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov proposed increasing VAT while reducing social tax and pension contributions for employers. The plan includes raising the basic VAT rate to 16%, though certain businesses may receive exemptions. In March, National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin confirmed that the VAT increase would also apply to online marketplaces. “We set rules and laws, and marketplaces must either comply or exit our market. As far as I know, Temu and Pinduoduo have already conditionally registered here and are VAT payers,” Zhumangarin stated. He emphasized that the government is not imposing a special tax on specific platforms but rather enforcing equal treatment across all e-commerce players. Zhumangarin acknowledged that the VAT hike might cause a short-term inflationary spike, estimating an additional 3% increase. Overall inflation, he noted, could return to double digits, reaching 12–14%. Uzbekistan Follows Suit Uzbekistan is also moving to curb foreign e-commerce dominance. Beginning March 20, the country will restrict access to Temu unless the platform registers for tax purposes. Authorities argue that some foreign marketplaces evade national tax regulations, creating unfair competition for local businesses. Uzbek analyst Timurmalik Elmuradov suggests that Temu has two options: establish a subsidiary in Uzbekistan or register as a VAT payer. The Chinese platform’s estimated monthly sales in Uzbekistan amount to $8-9 million. Online marketplaces are a relatively new phenomenon in Uzbekistan, with Temu operating in the country for only about six months. Should foreign e-commerce platforms withdraw, the cost of imported goods could rise by 10-12%. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has around 50 domestic online marketplaces, though they struggle to compete with larger foreign rivals. While Chinese, Russian, and Western platforms offer a vast selection and lower prices, local businesses emphasize faster and more reliable delivery.

2 months ago

Foreign Agents Law Soft Power USAID NGO China

USAID Pullback in Kazakhstan Creates Space for China and Raises Security Concerns – Expert

President Trump’s executive order restricting the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) globally has led to a reduction in Western-funded projects in Kazakhstan. USAID previously funded initiatives in humanitarian aid, media, blogging, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). As a result of the new U.S. administration's actions, experts suggest that China is expanding its influence. Gulmira Ileuova, head of the Strategy Foundation and a member of the advisory public organization, the National Kurultai, told TCA that the Kazakh government had already taken measures to limit foreign financial influence. "Kazakhstan was among the first post-Soviet countries to regulate foreign funding, requiring grant providers to be registered. Most of these organizations, including Soros-Kazakhstan and the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, operate within legal frameworks," she stated. Ileuova noted that German political foundations maintain a presence in Kazakhstan, while French grant-making organizations are largely absent. Beyond civil society projects, USAID also funded state-involved initiatives in education, healthcare, and energy. According to Ileuova, the withdrawal of USAID could lead to a shortfall in funding for NGOs, though state-backed projects are unlikely to be significantly affected. China’s Expanding Role Ileuova believes that China’s influence in Kazakhstan is growing faster than Russia’s, as Beijing has moved beyond economic partnerships to broader engagement." Russia relies on language and media ties to sustain its influence, while China is actively reshaping its approach," she said. Ileuova highlighted China’s soft power initiatives, including the Community of a Common Destiny for Mankind, which promotes cooperation and mutual development among nations. She also pointed to growing cultural and educational exchanges, suggesting that China’s approach mirrors past Western strategies of funding local partnerships and academic institutions. While China does not emphasize democracy or human rights in its outreach, its economic initiatives prioritize infrastructure development and poverty alleviation, often accompanied by media campaigns highlighting the benefits of Chinese investment. In recent years, Kazakhstan and China have strengthened cultural and educational ties. In August 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated Chinese cultural centers in Astana and Beijing via video link. The Beijing Language and Culture University also opened a branch in Astana, marking the first Chinese university in Central Asia. Additionally, in February 2025, China’s Consul General in Almaty, Jiang Wei, attended the opening of the Belt and Road scientific and educational center in Almaty. Religious Extremism and Security Considerations Ileuova also stated that the withdrawal of USAID and Western funds is unlikely to directly impact radical religious groups, as Western organizations primarily engage with urban, educated populations rather than communities at risk of radicalization. In a recent interview, Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Russia, Dauren Abayev, said that there is no immediate security risk from the return of Kazakh nationals who fought in Syria. According to official estimates, more than 30 Kazakhs remain in militant groups in Syria. From 2019 to 2021, the government carried out the Zhusan humanitarian operation, repatriating 600 individuals, including 413 children. Most male returnees were prosecuted and sentenced in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan continues to monitor and prosecute individuals linked to...

2 months ago