Our People > Nikola Mikovic

Nikola Mikovic

Journalist

Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist, researcher and analyst based in Serbia. He covers mostly the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, as well as energy-related issues.

Nikola primarily focuses on Russia’s involvement in post-Soviet space, the Middle East, and the Balkans. He writes for several publications such as Diplomatic Courier, Byline Times, CGTN, Lowy Institute, Global Comment, and World Geostratregic Insights, among others.

Articles

Afghanistan

Steel Diplomacy: Central Asia’s Southern Push via Afghanistan

The United States and its allies may be uneasy about the Taliban’s return to power, given their extremist history, continued repression, and the collapse of decades-long Western efforts in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the Taliban is strengthening ties with the Global South—particularly Central Asia—in search of investment for railway infrastructure. For landlocked Central Asian nations, Afghanistan is a key transit point on the shortest route to the Arabian Sea, offering an alternative to routes through Russia, China, or westward via the Caspian. The war-torn country – located at the crossroads of Central and South Asia – serves as a land bridge between the former Soviet republics and the major markets of the region, including India and Pakistan. This strategic position is why regional actors are eager to invest in the construction of the railway network in Afghanistan, fully aware that the new route would help them achieve at least some of their geopolitical and geoeconomics interest. Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu’s recent visit to Kabul was, according to reports, primarily focused on Afghan railway infrastructure. The largest Central Asian nation economy is reportedly ready to invest $500 million in the construction of the 115km (71 miles) railway from Towrgondi on Afghanistan’s border with Turkmenistan to the city of Herat. As Taliban railway officials told The Times of Central Asia, the Afghan and Kazakh delegations, who signed a memorandum of understanding on the project, are expected to finalize new agreements and contracts in the coming months. A detailed construction study is expected to be completed by winter, and Afghan authorities anticipate that construction will begin by the end of the year. Meanwhile, Kabul hopes to reach similar deals with neighboring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as with Russia and Pakistan. According to Taliban railway experts, these four nations – along with Kazakhstan – are expected to play a major role in the development of the 700-kilometer (approximately 435-mile) railway network in Afghanistan. The Taliban political officials, on the other hand, see the project as an opportunity for Afghanistan to increase its geopolitical importance. “It will help us reduce economic dependence and isolation, allowing Afghanistan to integrate more actively into the regional economy,” Muhammad Rehman, the Taliban-appointed Chargé d’Affaires of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan to Kazakhstan, told The Times of Central Asia, From his perspective, nations investing in Afghan railway infrastructure will become advocates for Afghanistan’s stability. Projects like the construction of the railway, in his view, can transform Afghanistan into a transit hub for regional countries through railway corridors. “Through the railway, Afghanistan can also import goods at a significantly lower cost, making essential commodities more affordable for its people,” Rahman stressed. More importantly, the railway opens a route for Central Asian natural resources to reach global markets via the ocean and further enhances the viability of the westward-flowing Middle Corridor. In short, the Afghan rail projects are important for connecting Eurasia. It is, therefore, no coincidence that Kazakhstan – being the richest country in terms of mineral wealth in Central Asia...

4 days ago

Central Asia-China Summit Central Asia-EU Summit Critical Minerals BRI Russia

Is Central Asia China’s Backdoor to Global Power?

As Russia remains preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and the United States is focused on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, China is seeking to increase its presence in Central Asia. In the current circumstances, the European Union and Beijing appear to be the most active players in the strategically important region; but who is in a better position? Central Asia has become a region where various foreign powers are competing for influence. On June 5, New Delhi hosted the 4th India-Central Asia Dialogue, during which the foreign ministers of the regional nations, along with their Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, discussed anti-terrorism cooperation amid rising regional extremism. Earlier, on April 3–4, the European Union sought to expand its ties with the region through the EU–Central Asia Summit format. Given China’s extensive economic cooperation with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, it is unsurprising that Beijing is seeking to strengthen its strategic influence in the region. The 2nd China-Central Asia Summit, taking in Astana on June 16-17, is yet another opportunity for Beijing to demonstrate that it has the capacity to position itself as an alternative to the growing European presence in the region. According to Dr. Habib Al-Badawi, Professor of International Relations at the Lebanese University, China is also aiming to limit the influence of other powers in the region – especially the United States, and to a lesser extent, Russia. “Moscow appears to accept China's growing economic dominance while trying to maintain its traditional security role. However, Beijing's expanding presence represents a long-term challenge to Russia's historical sphere of influence in the region,” Dr. Al-Badawi told The Times of Central Asia, emphasizing that Moscow and Beijing are more inclined to cooperate rather than compete in the region. Mark N. V. Temnycky, a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, believes that Moscow is showing a high degree of tolerance toward Beijing’s increased economic, energy, and security presence in Central Asia. Both countries, in his view, share similar objectives in the region, where they act as major trading partners and energy suppliers. The European Union seems to be their major rival in the Central Asia. In Dr. Al-Badawi’s view, unlike the EU that is “solely pursuing the region’s critical minerals,” China appears focused on broader economic integration through infrastructure development and trade partnerships. Dr. Tugrul Keskin, Professor at Cappadocia University and Moderator of Global China Academic Network, seems to share this view. “Beijing’s objectives in Central Asia are driven by a blend of strategic, economic, and security imperatives. While access to critical minerals – including rare earth elements vital for green technologies – is an emerging interest, it is not the primary driver. Unlike the European Union, whose recent engagement has focused heavily on securing raw materials, China’s approach is more comprehensive. It aims to shape the region’s long-term political alignments and economic structures in ways that favor Chinese leadership and diminish Western influence,” Dr. Keskin told The Times of Central Asia. At the same time, Beijing is actively increasing...

1 month ago

Railway Development trans-Afghan railway Astana International Forum Bilateral Cooperation Transport and Logistics Afghanistan

Interview: Taliban-Ruled Afghanistan Looks to Kazakhstan

ASTANA - War-torn Afghanistan, now led by the Taliban, is in desperate need of funding. The radical group is seizing every opportunity to secure not only financial support but also major infrastructure projects that could help rebuild the country. In late May, a delegation of Taliban representatives, led by Haji Nooruddin Azizi, the Minister of Trade and Industry, visited Kazakhstan to attend the Astana International Forum (AIF). During the summit, they spoke with The Times of Central Asia, discussing their ambitions and plans. It was their first participation in the prominent forum, made possible by Kazakhstan’s 2024 decision to remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations. Since then, Kazakhstani political and business leaders have traveled to Kabul on several occasions aiming to establish closer relations with the Islamic Emirate. [caption id="attachment_32607" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Image: TCA, Nikola Mikovic[/caption] Most recently, during a meeting with Azizi, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the need to strengthen political ties with Afghanistan. The economy, however, seems to play an equally important role in this relationship, with Astana aiming to increase its bilateral trade volume with Afghanistan to $3 billion in the coming years. Kazakhstan is also eyeing investing $500 million in the construction of the 115-kilometer (71 miles) Turgundi–Herat railway line, a section of the rail corridor linking Turgundi in the north of Afghanistan and Spin Boldak on the country’s border with Pakistan. The route effectively connects Central and South Asia via Afghanistan. Neighboring Turkmenistan is also interested in participating in this project, as the railway aims to connect Central Asia to Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports, providing Turkmenistan and its neighbors access to vast South Asian markets. The Turgundi–Herat–Kandahar–Spin Boldak railway line is considered a key segment of the broader Trans-Afghan Railway project, which even Russia has expressed an interest in joining. “It is still too early to discuss who will build the railway, although it is clear that Afghan companies are unlikely to be able to undertake the project,” Mirwais Ghafouri, Senior Advisor of the Afghanistan Railway Authority, told The Times of Central Asia in an interview. In his view, given that Afghanistan is a mountainous country, the entire project will cost at least $2–3 billion. The problem for Kabul is that – due to various sanctions and the fact that most countries still do not officially recognize the Taliban-led government – it cannot count on significant support from international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. “But we expect Kazakhstan to invest in this project, as well as in our economy in general. The shortest route connecting Central Asia and South Asia is through Afghanistan. Once the railway is complete, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations will be able to use it to export their agricultural products to huge markets such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh”, Ghafouri stressed, pointing out that Kabul and Astana are currently working on a project feasibility study. The Taliban appear to be aiming to revive nearly all previously announced projects...

2 months ago

Italy Bilateral Cooperation Bilateral Investment Energy Security Central Asia-Italy Summit

Kazakhstan, Italy, and the Battle for Europe’s Energy Future

ASTANA - Central Asia is no longer on the periphery of global events, but a place where major countries come together with their ideas, money, and projects. In a turbulent and highly uncertain geopolitical environment, global powers are seeking to establish their presence in this strategic, energy-rich region. Italy is no exception. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was initially scheduled to visit Kazakhstan in late April, but in light of Pope Francis' passing her trip to Astana was canceled. Coincidently or not, she came to the Kazakh capital on May 30 to attend the Astana International Forum (AIF) – a two-day event that saw the attendance of political, business, and thought leaders who gathered under an expanded agenda that included climate change, energy security, and sustainability. Meloni’s visit to Kazakhstan is part of her Central Asian tour; she previously visited Uzbekistan, where she met with the country’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. In Astana, she not only spoke at the AIF, emphasizing that the “Astana International Forum has become increasingly important in dialogue worldwide,” but also took part in the first-ever Central Asia–Italy summit. “Italy was the first Nation in the EU to decide to invest in relations with Central Asia and its individual member Nations, launching a permanent format in order to share ideas,” Meloni said at the AIF, emphasizing that the EU–Central Asia Summit, held in April in Samarkand, “elevated the relations between the region and the European Union to a strategic partnership.” In this relationship, Kazakhstan seems to play a crucial role. Italy is the largest Central Asian economy’s number one trading partner in Europe. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Italy in 2024 amounted to $19.9 billion, which is 24% higher compared to the previous year ($16.1 billion). Oil is undoubtedly Kazakhstan’s main export to Italy, although critics argue that the third-most populous EU member is merely a transit country, as large amounts of Kazakh oil ultimately reach other European countries. “If we really want to shape the future, we must have the courage to look beyond our geographical boundaries and pave new paths. I am thinking of the energy sector, where our cooperation can help make a difference, and I am also referring to critical raw materials, where our collaboration aims to generate shared benefits and mutual opportunities,” Meloni stressed. Kazakhstan is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of natural resources. This makes it a nation of significant interest to Italy – with whom Astana signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement back in 2009 – as well as to other European states. But from the Kazakh perspective, it is important that this cooperation be mutually beneficial. Astana is seeking to avoid being seen merely as a source of raw materials and expects its partners to offer tangible benefits in return. That is why Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev has pushed forcefully for the renegotiation of oil agreements with foreign energy companies operating in the country. For Astana, it is...

2 months ago

Middle Corridor United Nations Nuclear Energy Astana International Forum Middle Powers

Can Kazakhstan Lead Small and Middle Powers in Reforming the UN?

ASTANA – The United Nations, envisioned as a pillar of global cooperation, has often struggled to rise to the challenges it was created to address. Its inability to bridge cultural divides hampers meaningful solutions to regional issues, while structural weaknesses and the exclusion of diverse regional voices from the Security Council deepen its shortcomings. Compounding these flaws is the frequent deadlock among permanent members, whose competing agendas stifle consensus and action. These inefficiencies cast doubt on the organization's ability to hear and respond to regional voices, grievances, and expectations in a rapidly changing world. Amid these persistent challenges within the United Nations, Kazakhstan's proactive stance on global issues highlights its potential to lead efforts toward fostering peace and addressing critical gaps in international cooperation. For example, although Kazakhstan prioritizes nuclear energy in its national strategy, it simultaneously remains committed to advocating for the non-proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons. Such an approach, combined with its balanced foreign policy, enables the largest Central Asian nation to seek to position itself as a leading advocate for global peace. But how realistic is that in the current geopolitical climate? As conflicts and wars continue to rage around the world, leaders from several countries have gathered in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, for the Astana International Forum (AIF) to discuss key global challenges ranging from energy security and geopolitical cooperation to international trade and sustainable development. For Kazakhstan’s leadership, the event serves as an ideal opportunity to reaffirm its aspiration to position the country as a middle power. According to the Central Asian state’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, it is middle powers that should be prepared to take on greater multilateral responsibilities. “We all should strongly remain adherent to the United Nations Charter with no biased and selective approaches to its principles,” Tokayev said on May 29 in calling for the expansion of the United Nations Security Council that, in his view, should include broader regional representation. This idea was firmly supported by President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova of North Macedonia, who numbered among the major guests in Astana. She argues that small countries, along with middle powers, should be "the greatest advocates of effective multilateralism," as they stand to gain the most from institutions like the United Nations. “The Security Council should be expanded, reformed and democratized to make it more accountable and more responsible in maintaining international peace and security,” Siljanovska-Davkova stressed, adding that the international institution “should take its rightful place as a principal representative body, not only for debate and deliberative democracy but also for policymaking.” The problem, however, is that major global powers, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, are unlikely to voluntarily relinquish their positions within the organization. Small and middle powers will, therefore, undoubtedly have to work hard to achieve their ambitious geopolitical goals. In the meantime, they are expected to continue developing bilateral relations. “The task before us is clear – to preserve cooperation where it still exists and to restore it where it has broken down. We must widen this...

2 months ago