Our People > Times of Central Asia

Stephen M. Bland

Senior Editor and Head of Investigations

Stephen M. Bland is a journalist, author, editor, commentator and researcher specialising in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Prior to joining The Times of Central Asia, he has worked for NGOs, think tanks, as the Central Asia expert on a forthcoming documentary series, for the BBC, The Diplomat, EurasiaNet, and numerous other publications. divider Published in 2016, his book on Central Asia was the winner of the Golden Laureate of Eurasian Literature. He is currently putting the finishing touches to a book about the Caucasus. divider www.stephenmbland.com

Articles

Russia Great Patriotic War WWII

Central Asian Leaders Gather in Moscow for Economic Meeting, WWII Anniversary

At the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Central Asian leaders are arriving in Moscow ahead of celebrations on Thursday of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan arrived in the Russian capital “on a working visit” and will participate in commemorations of the 79th anniversary of victory over the Nazis, Russia’s state-run Tass news agency has reported. It said that Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov arrived in Moscow on Tuesday. The leaders of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan will also be in town, according to Russian presidential aide, Yuri Ushakov. Putin, who was inaugurated to a fifth term on Tuesday, was scheduled to attend a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Council, a regional trade group, on Wednesday. Also on the guest list were other leaders of member states of the group, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia, the Kremlin said. Uzbekistan and Cuba were attending as observer states. Russia has looked to Central Asia to serve as a conduit for trade with as it seeks to circumvent Western sanctions imposed because of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has said that only representatives from “friendly countries” were invited to the May 9 ceremony in Red Square, an opportunity for Putin to stir patriotic pride and showcase military might in the third year of war in Ukraine. Central Asian countries, as former Soviet republics, were critical to the Soviet war effort in World War II, and have been holding their own solemn commemorations in recent days. Whilst nurturing relations with China and the West, Central Asia countries retain close economic and security ties to Moscow.

1 day ago

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Employment Economic Growth Sustainable Development Population Wages

Central Asia as an Emerging Economic Region

Central Asia, spanning an area from the Caspian Sea in the west to China in the east and from Afghanistan in the south to Russia in the north, is rapidly emerging as a significant economic block. Comprising five post-Soviet states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — this region is distinguished by its rich natural resources and strategic geographic position, as well as its natural beauty and cultural heritage. With a combined population of around 75 million people, Central Asia has emerged as a dynamically developing market that is increasingly attracting global interest. The transformation unfolding in Central Asia holds both promise and significant challenges for its residents and foreign investors alike. This shift is driven by increasing calls for political reform, the dynamism of a youthful population, and an imperative for sustainable development alongside the pressing need to diversify economic bases. Structural changes following independence in 1991 set the stage for robust growth from 2000s onward Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Central Asian countries faced the challenge of transitioning from centrally-planned to market-oriented economies. This period was marked by significant economic difficulties across the region including negative GDP growth and hyperinflation, compounded by the complexities of privatization, legal reforms, and both social and political instability. The nations responded with different development strategies aimed at market liberalization, infrastructure improvement, and the utilization of natural resources. By 2000, Central Asia experienced a noticeable economic resurgence, marking a striking contrast to the conditions in 1991. In that year, Uzbekistan's GDP growth was at -0.5%, Kyrgyzstan at -7.9%, and Kazakhstan at -11%. A decade later, these countries reported positive growth rates of 4.2%, 5.3%, and 13.5%, respectively. This remarkable turnaround can be attributed to the "low base effect," where the initially low economic indicators set the stage for significant improvements over time. The total GDP of Central Asian countries has grown seven times since the beginning of the 2000s. In comparison with the global economic growth rate of +2.6% annually, the Central Asian region grew by an average of 6.2% between 2000 and 2023 according to IMF data. All Central Asian states are forecasted to outpace the IMF’s projected growth rate for emerging markets and developing economies 2024 which stands at 4.2%; however, actual growth will depend on reforms and foreign investment. Kazakhstan has set the highest growth goal with a five-year target GDP increase to $450 billion, which would require an achievable but challenging 6% annual growth. As illustrated below, Kazakhstan stands out as the economic powerhouse of Central Asia with a GDP almost 1.5 times that of all the other countries combined. Labor markets: Optimal demographics for growth and innovation According to United Nations data, approximately 75 million people live in Central Asia, representing 1% of the world’s population. Relative to the global median age, all of Central Asia boasts a young population. A youthful population fuels economic growth by replenishing the workforce, driving innovation, and expanding consumer markets. It supports older demographics...

2 days ago

Articles

Conflict Resolution Armenia Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan to Host Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks on May 10

The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold talks in Almaty on May 10 as they seek to end their long-running conflict, Kazakhstan said on Monday. The negotiations will happen in line with “previously reached agreements,” said Aibek Smadiyarov, spokesman for Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Jeyhun Bayramov, Azerbaijan’s top diplomat, and his Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan, will attend, according to the Kazakh official. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in tension and conflict over territory since the 1990s, though the two sides have been working to delineate their borders following Azerbaijan’s retaking of control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region last year. As reported by TCA last week, in a statement President Tokayev “welcome[d] the agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia to hold talks at the Foreign Ministers’ level on the preparation of a peace treaty between the two states, at the suggestion of the Kazakh side.” Tokayev went on to express his hope the upcoming meeting would help with the “practical implementation” of agreements between the two sides.

3 days ago

Articles

Bishimbayev Murder Trial Saltanat Nukenova

Ex-Minister Bishimbayev Delivers Last Words in Court Amid Murder Case

In a pivotal moment that gripped the nation, ex-minister Kuandyk Bishimbayev, alongside his relative Bakhytzhan Baizhanov, stood before a court in Astana on May 6, 2024, to deliver their final statements in a high-profile murder case that has captivated public attention. The courtroom, charged with anticipation, listened intently as Bishimbayev and Baizhanov articulated their last words before the verdict. Bishimbayev, facing charges of murder with particular cruelty and torture of Saltanat Nukenova, expressed profound remorse and a plea for forgiveness. His voice steady, yet laden with emotion, Bishimbayev recounted the events leading to Nukenova's demise, emphasizing the unintentional nature of her death. "I never wished Saltanat to die," he stated, addressing the court and jurors, "I am not guilty of premeditated murder." The forensic evidence cited by Bishimbayev highlighted a hematoma as the cause of Nukenova's death, further distancing the defendant from allegations of intentional harm. Despite the social and media pressure surrounding the case, Bishimbayev remained steadfast in his acknowledgment of guilt, albeit not for premeditated murder. His repentance extended to the public, his family, and friends, underscoring the personal and societal repercussions of his actions. Baizhanov, on the other hand, faced accusations of concealing the crime. In his statement, Baizhanov vehemently denied any prior knowledge of Bishimbayev's actions, asserting that his involvement was without the intention of hiding a crime. "If I had known, I would not have committed these acts," Baizhanov declared, pressing his claim of innocence in the charge of concealing the crime. The case, stemming from the discovery of Nukenova's body on November 9, 2023, at the BAU restaurant owned by Bishimbayev's family, has shed light on darker undercurrents of power and tragedy. Bishimbayev's admission of negligent homicide served to add layers to a case already heavy with implications and public scrutiny. As the trial, which commenced on March 27, draws to a close, hundreds of thousands across Kazakhstan and beyond await the final judgment. The proceedings have not only underscored the legal complexities inherent in such a case, but also reflected broader societal concerns over justice, accountability, and the human capacity for regret and redemption. The coming verdict will not only determine the fate of Bishimbayev and Baizhanov, but also serve as a significant moment in Kazakhstan's judicial history, symbolizing the law's stance on crimes of such a grave nature and the pursuit of truth and justice. Against the backdrop of this high-profile case, human rights groups had called on the authorities in Kazakhstan to toughen penalties for domestic violence. Parliament approved the relevant draft, which the public dubbed "Saltanat’s law", and the document was signed into law by the president on April 15.

3 days ago

Articles

Caspian Belt and Road Initiative Transport and Logistics

Is the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Railway Project Losing Steam Again?

By Robert M. Cutler The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway was first proposed in 1997. There seemed finally to be a prospect for a start to the project after agreements at the Xi'an summit amongst China and the five Central Asian countries in May 2023. Construction on the 523-kilometre route was scheduled to begin several months after, but this has still not happened. Disagreements over the route and—still worse—over the funding risk relegating the project back to the drawing-boards where it has languished for over a quarter-century. After the initial agreement in 1997, it was these essentially unchanging disagreements over financing and the route within Kyrgyzstan that stalled negotiations, and over a final agreement of conditions for its construction in the early 2000s. These disagreements concern the geo-economic strategies of the respective parties, and they have not changed in over two decades. China favors a shorter route, while Kyrgyzstan pushes for a longer one to benefit its domestic infrastructure. Specifically, Kyrgyzstan wants to use the railway's construction to establish better connections between the northern and southern parts of the country, which are separated by a mountain range. Further difficulties in CKU implementation For Uzbekistan, a turning-point was its decision in 2017 to send railway experts to discuss the project with Kyrgyzstan. Then in 2019, Uzbekistan invited Turkey to co-finance the Kyrgyz section. The current cost of the whole project is estimated at $6 billion. A preliminary agreement has been reached on the division of this total, according to which each of the three parties will contribute 30 per cent (but at different stages of the project), with the source of the final 10 per cent including the cost of the feasibility study still to be determined. Despite this progress, public concerns in Kyrgyzstan over several critical practical issues remain unaddressed and continue to complicate a final agreement. These include the anticipated influx of Chinese workers, the professional development of local railway engineers, the allocation of investments for industrial projects along the railway corridor and the facilitation of increased exports of Kyrgyzstan's products to the Chinese market. These elements are essential for the long-term viability and success of the CKU railway initiative. Interestingly, these are very similar to the concerns of Kazakhstan that delayed the construction of the first (i.e., the Atasu–Alashankou) segment of the Kazakhstan–China oil export pipeline in the early 2000s. Moreover, China originally insisted on compensation from Bishkek for its contribution in the form of ownership of Kyrgyz mines, including the world’s second-largest iron-ore reserve at Zhetim Too, which Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov claims is worth at least $50 billion. It does not help matters that this site adjoins a large glacier, the water from which is crucial for irrigation of major Kyrgyz agricultural holdings. Other Uzbek initiatives for infrastructure connectivity On 1 November 2023, at a forum of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization (SCO) meeting in Tashkent, transportation officials from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia signed a memorandum to establish a new Kyrgyzstan–Russia trade corridor through Turkmenistan (who, incidentally,...

6 days ago