Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Regional Security

Central Asia’s Afghan Engagement Faces Persistent Security Risks

Central Asian countries are expanding their trade with Kabul despite concerns about armed groups operating from Afghanistan. Russia has renewed warnings about militants seeking to infiltrate the region and is advocating cooperation with the Taliban authorities to contain them. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are interested in trade, energy, and transport projects connecting the region with South Asia. Tajikistan has traditionally taken a more critical position toward the Taliban and places particular emphasis on securing its lengthy border with Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Russia and China are seeking guarantees from the Afghan authorities against the activities of armed organizations that threaten their security. Speaking on October 16 at a joint conference of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said extremist organizations maintained a significant presence in Afghan provinces bordering Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. According to Lavrov, militants intend to use Afghan territory to expand their activities into Central Asia and Russia. Lavrov identified Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the Afghan affiliate of the Islamic State terrorist organization, also known as ISIS-K, as the main threat, citing Russian security agencies. The group opposes the Taliban, carries out attacks in Afghanistan, and has struck beyond its borders. The name Khorasan refers to a historical region encompassing parts of present-day Afghanistan, Iran, and Central Asia. ISIS-K’s reach extends beyond Afghanistan’s border regions through propaganda, recruitment, and cross-border networks. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, people from Central Asia have been implicated in ISIS-K activities beyond the region itself, including within migrant communities. Lavrov claimed that militants in northern Afghanistan included ethnic Uyghurs, alongside fighters from Central Asia and the North Caucasus. His reference to Uyghurs echoes Beijing’s security concerns over Xinjiang, where China has used counterterrorism policies to justify sweeping repression. A 2022 UN assessment found that arbitrary detention and restrictions on the rights of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim groups could constitute crimes against humanity. The TASS report provided no evidence supporting his claims about the fighters’ origins. Lavrov also called for joint action against weapons and drug trafficking through Central Asia. The Taliban as a Security Partner Lavrov urged engagement with the Taliban authorities, who returned to power during the U.S. military withdrawal in August 2021. Russia formally recognized their government in July 2025. Moscow argues that the Taliban’s control of Afghan territory makes them responsible for security within the country, and is seeking international support for Kabul’s efforts to improve regional security. While relying on the Taliban to contain armed groups, Moscow is simultaneously questioning their ability to do so. ISIS-K has attacked Taliban officials, giving Kabul a direct reason to confront the organization. That conflict, however, offers no assurance that the Taliban will act against other armed groups operating in Afghanistan. China also favors working with Kabul on security, with concerns extending to the safety of Chinese nationals and regional trade routes. Two attacks launched from Afghan territory killed five Chinese nationals...

TCA Interviews

Kazakhstan’s Education Chief Turns to Sci-Fi to Explain His AI Vision

As Kazakhstan’s 2026 academic year began, The Times of Central Asia spoke with Sayasat Nurbek, Minister of Science and Higher Education, in Astana. Drawing on science fiction films and novels, Nurbek discussed how universities can embrace AI while protecting students’ independent thinking. He also reflected on human agency and the limits of technology. TCA: A new academic year brings new challenges for you and your team in this age of AI. On your website, you write: “It does not matter how long you spend on the earth, how much money you have gathered or how much attention you have received. It is the amount of positive vibration you have radiated in life that matters….” With this in mind, what are your priorities as Kazakhstan’s Minister of Science and Higher Education as AI reshapes the field? Nurbek: My priority is students who are fully alive, not just fully efficient. AI can handle the routine, so Kazakhstan’s universities must protect what machines can’t: curiosity, imagination, judgment, critical thinking, and character. Technology should serve growth in these areas, never replace them. Success isn’t output; it’s lives that radiate something positive. AI is a tool, and tools cut both ways. We’re welcoming AI into higher education with open eyes and high standards. I want students who think for themselves, use AI wisely, and own their personal sovereignty, if you will. I do not want self-absorbed people who forget about others, society, and the nation. AI is powerful and easy to abuse, so Kazakhstan nurtures critical thinking, curiosity, and creativity in the AI age. I will use Sci-fi movies and novels to help me explain why. TCA: Certainly. What do you mean by students need to “own their sovereignty”? Nurbek: Education in Kazakhstan is about building minds and virtue, not just collecting answers and performing tasks. If AI does the writing, problem-solving, and summarizing, our students may get an answer without learning how to find solutions. Real understanding comes from the effort to learn. It comes from struggle, doubt, revision, failure, sharing, steadfastness, patience, starting again, and, yes, celebrating success. That’s why it’s key for Kazakhstan’s universities to set clear boundaries and teach students when and how to use AI. AI can undermine learning if it replaces their own thinking. AI should support thought, not substitute for it. TCA: What are your thoughts about the impact of AI on learning? Nurbek: Used ethically, AI is a huge opportunity for Kazakhstan. The world is racing to adopt it, so our universities can’t ignore it, but they mustn’t swallow the hype or miss the dangers. A PISA 2025 study found that students who use AI to summarize or draft score noticeably lower in science, by roughly a year of schooling. That is a correlation, though, not proof of causation. Other studies find AI users shine in practice, then stumble horribly on exams. TCA: So, it seems you have mixed feelings about the introduction of AI? Nurbek: The PISA data tells us more. Students who regularly use AI...

LRT

Almaty Builds New Tram Line as Residents Question Costs and Delays

Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city with a population of more than two million, is laying tram tracks again, more than a decade after shutting down its old network. The authorities aim to open the first 18.3-kilometer light rail transit (LRT) line in December 2027. The city has allocated 61.4 billion tenge (approximately $136 million) for construction in 2026, but the authorities have yet to disclose the project's total cost. As construction closes streets and disrupts traffic, some residents are questioning why the city dismantled its old tram system only to build a new one. The Project The new line will run from an industrial area in western Almaty through central districts to the Almaty-2 railway station and the Raiymbek Batyr transport hub. Unlike the elevated LRT system in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana, Almaty's tracks will be laid at street level, separated from road traffic by curbs. City authorities say a ground-level line is less expensive than the elevated system in Astana. The project is being built by Kazakhstan's Integra Construction KZ. China's CRRC is being considered as a supplier of rolling stock, with the parties signing a memorandum of intent in June. The proposed five-section trams would carry up to 283 passengers each. City officials estimate that the line could carry more than 100,000 passengers a day, slightly below the roughly 122,000 passengers Almaty's metro handles on a typical weekday. [caption id="attachment_58784" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] The groundwork for the new tram line along Tole Bi Street, Almaty. Image: TCA[/caption] Public Opinion Speaking to The Times of Central Asia (TCA), 25-year-old entrepreneur Sanzhar Uvashev questioned the need for the new project after the dismantling of the previous tram network. “There used to be trams running through the city. Then they removed them, and now they want to build an LRT. Why remove one system only to build practically the same thing again?” he said. Tram services in Almaty ended on October 31, 2015. An inspection found the tracks to be unsafe after 43 derailments had occurred over just nine and a half months. The city decided to discontinue operations on the old network. By May 2026, workers were removing the remaining rails on Tole Bi Street to make way for new construction. Abai Kazbayev, a 40-year-old actor who also spoke to TCA, does not oppose bringing trams back but fears another prolonged construction project. “Perhaps it really will help ease traffic congestion in the future. The main thing is that construction doesn't drag on for years again,” he said. [caption id="attachment_58786" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Sections of the street are closed periodically, while hoardings advertise the coming trams. Image: TCA[/caption] Why Not Expand the Metro? Raushan Otan, a 46-year-old art historian interviewed by TCA, believes the city should focus on expanding its existing subway system. “It would make much more sense to continue building the metro and developing the transport system we already have,” she said. Construction of Almaty's metro began in 1988, during the Soviet era. It welcomed its first passengers in 2011, 20 years...

Middle Corridor

How the Shrinking Caspian Sea Affects the Middle Corridor’s Potential

Paradoxically, the Caspian Sea is becoming one of Eurasia’s most important transport hubs at a time when its falling water level is creating growing constraints on navigation. As sanctions disrupt traditional trade routes through Russia, countries are investing in the Middle Corridor as an alternative link between Asia and Europe. Yet the continuing decline in sea level is limiting shipping capacity and increasing the risks and costs associated with long-term infrastructure projects. The first Caspian Environmental Summit, held in Turkmenistan on October 9, 2026, drew attention to the scale of these changes. Between 2000 and 2025, the Caspian Sea shrank by more than 16,000 square kilometers, while in some areas the shoreline receded by tens of kilometers. How the Caspian’s Falling Water Level Affects Freight The Middle Corridor, linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe, is seen as a promising route for diversifying international trade. Its development can reduce shippers’ dependence on individual transport routes and improve economic ties among countries in the region. According to the World Bank’s latest study, more than $25 billion in investment in the corridor’s core physical infrastructure will be needed through 2040. An additional $30 billion could be required for enabling infrastructure and services. The bank estimates that if infrastructure investment is combined with institutional reforms, freight volumes along the corridor could quadruple and travel times could fall by about two-thirds by 2040. A study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) notes that insufficient depths are already preventing vessels from being fully loaded, reducing transport efficiency and increasing costs. Large-scale dredging was carried out at the Port of Kuryk in 2024. Over four months, around one million cubic meters of material were removed, and the depth of the operational port area was increased to 7–8 meters, according to the port operator. This made it possible to load vessels to full capacity. Meanwhile, major dredging work is underway at Aktau, where 1.3 million cubic meters of material are to be removed to increase water depths to 6–7 meters. The work is expected to be completed by the end of 2026. Dredging, however, can only maintain the operation of individual port facilities, while further declines in the sea level may require repeated work or the reconstruction of berths. Where draft restrictions prevent full loading, transport companies may need to make more voyages to carry the same volume of cargo, increasing spending on fuel, crews, maintenance, and port operations. Constraints on the maritime section can also lead to delays for railcars and containers and disrupt transshipment schedules. These disruptions reduce the predictability of deliveries along the entire route. Similar problems are emerging on the western coast of the Caspian. Falling water levels are reducing vessel cargo capacity at Azerbaijani ports and oil terminals and requiring additional dredging. Infrastructure for Decades Ahead According to the OECD study, which cites World Bank climate projections, under a high-emissions scenario in which the Caspian water level falls by about five meters between...

C5+1

Uzbekistan Announces $12 Billion in Agreements During Marco Rubio’s Visit

Uzbekistan has announced 54 agreements covering trade, investment, and technological cooperation during U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Samarkand. The agreements are worth a total of $12 billion, according to Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade. The agreements were announced at the second meeting of the Uzbekistan–U.S. Business and Investment Council on October 19. Rubio also met President Shavkat Mirziyoyev that day. The ministry said the agreements cover transport and energy infrastructure, critical minerals, finance, digital technologies, agriculture, healthcare, and education. Rubio’s visit coincided with a C5+1 ministerial meeting, bringing together the United States and the five Central Asian countries. The Uzbek ministry stated that more than 400 business representatives participated in the program, including over 100 from the United States, 100 from other Central Asian countries, and 200 from Uzbekistan. It did not specify how much of the announced $12 billion has secured financing and how much remains at the planning stage. Several international companies were named in the agreements announced during the visit. According to the announced arrangements, cooperation with Wabtec is focused on localizing the production of railway equipment and components. Agreements involving ReElement Technologies, Traxys, and Trafigura cover mineral exploration, development, technological cooperation, and supplies. Other announced projects involve satellite communications with Amazon Leo, medical technologies with GE HealthCare, and agricultural efficiency with Valmont Industries. Speaking to reporters in Samarkand on October 19, Rubio said the visit was expected to produce concrete commercial results. “I think we’ll have some concrete deals to announce, meaning companies that are going to be doing business here that are being welcomed here and that are excited about doing business here,” Rubio said. He emphasized that the agreements should be viewed as the beginning of a broader economic relationship. “I also think that’s just the foundation that we intend to build on. We want to do more. This is not the end. This is the beginning,” he said. In their joint statement, the C5+1 governments supported expanding mineral processing and higher-value production within Central Asia. They also backed further development of the Trans-Caspian Trade Route and closer regional economic integration. The visit also marked the launch of the Enhanced Strategic Partnership Dialogue and Uzbekistan’s signing of the Artemis Accords on peaceful space exploration. From Investment Announcements to Projects In an interview with The Times of Central Asia (TCA), political analyst Abduvali Soyibnazarov described Rubio’s visit and the C5+1 meeting as a potentially important stage in Washington’s relations with Central Asia. Recalling the first C5+1 ministerial meeting, attended by then-U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in Samarkand in November 2015, Soyibnazarov said the agenda has changed considerably over the past decade, with investment, critical minerals, advanced technologies, and new trade routes moving to the forefront. The analyst argued that Uzbekistan’s main measure of success should not be the number of memorandums signed, but how many projects ultimately secure financing and move forward. Uzbekistan’s investment minister, Laziz Kudratov, put the country’s portfolio of commercial agreements with the United States at...

C5+1

Central Asian States Set Out Priorities After Rubio Talks in Samarkand

Central Asian governments backed closer cooperation on mineral processing and transport at the October 19 C5+1 meeting in Samarkand. Separate talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio covered possible aircraft purchases for Kyrgyzstan and further diplomatic engagement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan announced a $12 billion package of agreements and prospective initiatives during the visit. For the other four Central Asian participants, the published accounts centered largely on cooperation priorities and follow-up discussions. The gathering followed the November 2025 White House summit and accompanied Uzbekistan’s signing of the Artemis Accords. It brought Rubio together with all five Central Asian foreign ministers, combining regional discussions with separate bilateral meetings. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi discussed implementation of earlier presidential agreements with Rubio. The talks addressed attracting American investment and technology, with energy and critical minerals among the priorities. Washington also expressed interest in cooperation on artificial intelligence and communications infrastructure. According to Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry, Rubio expressed interest in visiting Kazakhstan after the December G20 summit in Miami. Kyrgyzstan’s talks included immediate obstacles to closer relations. Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev raised sanctions policy and visa restrictions with Rubio, alongside opportunities for American investment. The Kyrgyz side sought solutions that would facilitate educational and business exchanges. Presidential special representative Bakyt Sydykov briefed the U.S. delegation on Kyrgyzstan’s sanctions-related efforts, with Bishkek reaffirming its willingness to work with Washington to prevent sanctions circumvention. In a separate meeting, Kulubaev discussed possible Boeing aircraft deliveries to Kyrgyz airlines with company vice president Michael Schnabel. Financing options included possible involvement by the U.S. Export-Import Bank. The discussions also covered aircraft maintenance and aviation infrastructure. Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin discussed expanding trade and investment with Rubio. The ministry’s account also described an exchange on regional security and stability in Central Asia. Turkmenistan reported a more specific diplomatic follow-up. Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov and Rubio outlined a schedule of further meetings and political consultations. U.S. special envoy Sergio Gor also attended the talks. The shared C5+1 statement set out the broader economic agenda. The six governments supported further development of the Trans-Caspian Trade Route and more closely aligned customs procedures. They also backed stronger industrial cooperation within Central Asia. On minerals, the statement envisaged expanded extraction and processing, alongside more production of higher-value goods within the region. It also supported exchanging expertise on geological data. These were collective policy intentions, without country-by-country financing allocations or project completion dates. Security commitments covered stronger border protection and counterterrorism cooperation, alongside efforts against transnational crime. The governments also supported practical cooperation on nuclear security and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.