Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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U.S.-Central Asia Engagement

Washington Links TRIPP and Jackson-Vanik Repeal in Push Toward Central Asia

A notable strategic shift is taking place in U.S. foreign policy, one that could have a long-term impact on the economic architecture of Eurasia. After decades in which Central Asia and the South Caucasus were viewed largely through the lens of security, counterterrorism, and competition with Russia and China, Washington is increasingly emphasizing trade, investment, transport routes, and access to critical minerals. One of the clearest signs of this shift came during a recent hearing before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where Senator Steve Daines and Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the implementation of the U.S.-backed Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) framework, as well as the need to remove the outdated Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions. At first glance, these may appear to be separate issues: the peace process in the South Caucasus and Cold War-era trade legislation. In reality, however, they are closely connected. Together, they point to a broader U.S. effort to link Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Western markets through trade, transport, and investment. In recent years, Republican Senator Steve Daines of Montana has emerged as one of the most active advocates of expanding America’s presence in Central Asia. As co-chair of the Senate Central Asia Caucus and one of the leading proponents of legislative efforts to repeal Jackson-Vanik restrictions, Daines has consistently argued for stronger trade and investment ties between the United States and the countries of the region. During the hearing, Daines placed particular emphasis on the importance of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, describing it as one of the most underappreciated diplomatic efforts of recent years. According to the senator, resolving the conflict could open the door to a large-scale economic transformation of the wider region. Particularly noteworthy was his reference to a geopolitical concept associated with former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski. In Daines’ formulation, Central Asia represents the “bottle,” while Azerbaijan serves as its “cork.” Opening transport routes through the South Caucasus, he argued, would allow flows of oil, gas, critical minerals, and other resources to move toward Western markets rather than toward Russia, China, or Iran. Daines said this approach helped address some of the most difficult issues in the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement process and laid the foundation for what he called a “landmark agreement” after nearly four decades of conflict. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described TRIPP as an initiative capable of fundamentally transforming Armenia’s economic role in the region. According to Rubio, the framework not only addresses the issue of transport access, which had long been a source of disagreement between Baku and Yerevan, but also creates an opportunity for Armenia to become a major trade and logistics hub connecting Europe and Asia. Rubio described TRIPP as central to the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement framework, emphasizing that the project could generate substantial investment flows and attract U.S. companies to infrastructure and transport projects across the region. Washington’s argument is that trade, transit, investment, and infrastructure can give the political settlement a stronger economic base. Unlike many previous peace...

Middle Powers

Kazakhstan’s Middle Power Moment: From Balancer to Regional Organizer

In “What Is the Status of Middle Powers?”, Michel Duclos of the Institut Montaigne presents Kazakhstan as a test case for whether middle powers can still influence outcomes in an era of intensifying great power rivalry. Writing after the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana, which brought together nine heads of state around President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Duclos notes that Kazakhstan “plays a leadership role” among states navigating pressures between China and Russia. He also argues that Tokayev, drawing on his experience as a former senior UN official, is seeking to elevate Kazakhstan into an intermediate power on multilateral issues. That is a useful lens for understanding Tokayev’s foreign policy. Rather than treating Kazakhstan’s position between larger powers as a liability, he has sought to turn geography, energy resources, logistics, diplomatic reliability, and convening power into regional agency. The result is an emerging model of middle power leadership rooted not in confrontation, but in coordination, credibility, and practical cooperation. That assessment places Tokayev’s foreign policy in a broader category than traditional balancing. Kazakhstan’s importance does not rest only on its raw assets — uranium, oil, minerals, logistics, or its position along Central Asian land routes. It also rests on how Astana uses those assets: as a convening state, a reliable partner, and a practical organizer of regional cooperation. Under Tokayev, multi-vector diplomacy has become less a defensive posture than an operating strategy, aimed at keeping Kazakhstan open to multiple partners while building platforms others have reason to use. In that sense, Kazakhstan is being presented not simply as a state located between great powers, but as one increasingly able to give structure to the space between them. Moving from “balancer” to “regional organizer” is only possible if Kazakhstan turns geography, resources, and diplomacy into practical systems others have reason to use. The clearest operational evidence of this shift is transport. Kazakhstan’s geography has often been described as a constraint. It is landlocked, vast, and positioned between larger powers. But the growth of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor, allows Astana to recast that geography as a strategic advantage. In the first quarter of 2026, 125 container trains transited Kazakhstan via the Middle Corridor, a 34.4% increase from the same period in 2025. The Times of Central Asia also reported that freight volumes along the route through Kazakhstan have grown more than fivefold over seven years, from 0.8 million tons to 4.5 million tons annually. These figures show that Kazakhstan is not simply selling potential; it is building operational value into the corridor. This is where the idea of Kazakhstan as a regional organizer becomes concrete. A balancing state tries to avoid overdependence on any single power. An organizing state builds systems that others have a reason to use. If Kazakhstan can make the Middle Corridor faster, more predictable, more digitalized, and more commercially reliable, it is not merely balancing Russia, China, Europe, Türkiye, and the South Caucasus. It is creating connective tissue between them. World Bank analysis suggests that infrastructure...

Caspian Region

Why the Caspian Is Becoming Eurasia’s New Energy Crossroads

Russia’s war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East are accelerating the emergence of a new Eurasian energy architecture, with the Caspian region increasingly at its center. In international politics, moments when several global crises simultaneously create opportunities for new centers of influence are rare. Today, a vast area stretching from Central Asia to the South Caucasus is experiencing just such a moment. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally reshaped Europe’s approach to energy security. Tensions in the Middle East have also raised questions about the reliability of traditional energy supply routes. Meanwhile, the global energy transition is driving demand for both clean-energy sources and alternative transport corridors. Against this backdrop, the Caspian region is no longer viewed as a peripheral economic space. It is increasingly emerging as a critical hub in Eurasia’s evolving energy system. Baku Energy Week 2026 shows how far this shift has come, highlighting Azerbaijan’s transformation from a traditional oil and gas producer into a strategic connector linking Central Asia, Türkiye, Europe, the United States, and the Middle East. One of the forum’s most significant political signals came in the form of a message from U.S. President Donald Trump to participants. His remarks went beyond a routine diplomatic greeting and reflected a broader shift toward a more pragmatic view of global energy policy. Trump described the United States as a strong supporter of Azerbaijan’s oil and gas industry and said the U.S.-Azerbaijan energy partnership would become more important in the years ahead. For much of the past decade, Western energy strategies appeared increasingly focused on rapid decarbonization and climate objectives. However, rising energy prices, Europe’s energy crisis, and growing global electricity demand have prompted policymakers to reassess those priorities. Trump openly reaffirmed support for the oil and gas sector and emphasized that the United States remains a long-standing energy partner of Azerbaijan. More importantly, Washington appears to recognize Baku’s strategic role in global energy security. The Trump administration increasingly views energy security as an element of geopolitical competition and is prepared to support projects that diversify supplies of hydrocarbons and critical raw materials. Speaking at the opening of Baku Energy Week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said Trump’s policies had helped return energy policy to “normality.” Aliyev also noted that the oil and gas industry had faced sustained pressure from advocates of a rapid energy transition. It was therefore no coincidence that Azerbaijan signed a series of agreements during the forum with major American companies, including Chevron, JPMorgan, Oracle, and Comstock Resources. Particularly noteworthy was a cooperation agreement covering critical minerals and rare earth elements. For Washington, access to these resources is increasingly a matter not only of energy policy but also of technological and national security amid intensifying competition with China. In effect, Washington is beginning to view Azerbaijan as an important platform in a changing Eurasian energy map. While Washington is signaling renewed political backing, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains one of the principal architects of the region’s practical integration. Over the past...

Eco Expo

Eco Expo Opens in Samarkand as Uzbekistan Pushes Green Investment

Eco Expo Central Asia 2026 opened on June 2 at the Expo Center of Silk Road Samarkand, placing Uzbekistan’s green economy plans before officials, lenders, companies, scientists, and environmental groups already gathered in the city. The exhibition is scheduled to run through June 4 and is being held alongside the Eighth Assembly of the Global Environment Facility, one of the main global forums for environmental finance. The timing gives Uzbekistan a rare week of attention on climate, water, biodiversity, and clean technology. The GEF Assembly runs from May 30 to June 6 in Samarkand. The GEF says its Assembly is its highest governing body, made up of 186 member countries, and meets once every four years. GEF Council meetings are scheduled from May 31 to June 3, before the formal Assembly sessions later in the week. Eco Expo has a more practical focus. Its exhibition sections include protected natural areas, clean technology, green construction, transport, and energy, sustainable agriculture, green finance and green cities, ecotourism, water-saving technologies, environmental education, artificial intelligence in ecology, and the Aral Sea region. The business program includes lectures, seminars, panels, and roundtables for registered visitors. Uzbekistan’s state news agency UzA has said that approximately 10,000 participants from Uzbekistan and abroad are expected. The exhibition will include more than 68 pavilions for environmental products, plus 20 pavilions for startup projects from Central Asian countries. Organizers also plan more than 50 forums, presentations, and discussion platforms on green energy, waste recycling, water resource management, and sustainable development. The exhibition - organized by Uzbekistan’s National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change with Business Congress Management - is designed to turn local environmental plans into fundable projects. Regions and districts across Uzbekistan have prepared proposals for donors and investors, covering climate adaptation, better use of natural resources, and practical steps to make local economies more resilient. For Uzbekistan, the meetings are a chance to move from broad pledges to project lists, budgets, and partners. Farms need more efficient irrigation; cities need cleaner transport and better waste systems; protected areas need long-term funding. The expo brings those needs into one room with development banks, UN agencies, foreign governments, and companies looking for green projects. The GEF meetings bring the process closer to the expo floor. The fund says it has provided more than $26 billion in financing over three decades, and has helped mobilize another $148 billion for country-led environmental projects. In Samarkand, the 71st GEF Council meeting opened ahead of the Assembly and Eco Expo. Its agenda includes biodiversity protection, sustainable infrastructure, renewable energy, energy storage, the GEF-9 programming strategy, and support for vulnerable countries. Uzbekistan already has a working portfolio with the GEF, which includes 13 projects worth $56 million and five more projects worth more than $30 million in the pipeline. The projects cover biodiversity, snow leopard protection, restoration of ecosystems in the Aral Sea region, climate resilience, land management, and waste management. The week arrives as Uzbekistan faces rising climate stress. The World Bank has described...

Venice Biennale

A Polyphonic Process: Kazakhstan at the 2026 Venice Biennale

"There is a Kazakh proverb that says: a foolish person arrives with noise, sweeping everything away in their path, while a wise person arrives quietly, carefully observing the world around them." Syrlybek Bekbota, the curator of the Kazakhstan Pavilion at the 61st Venice Biennale – the most important art event in the world – offers me this thought at the dawn of the exhibition's opening, and it feels like both a manifesto and an omen. The theme of the pavilion is perfectly in line with the overarching curatorial theme, In Minor Keys, conceived by the late Cameroonian-Swiss curator Koyo Kouoh, who tragically passed away before the Biennale opened. And yet the controversies around this edition contradicted this minor key premise, instead turning it into a highly political event: the jury's resignation, widespread protests against the participation of Israel and Russia, rallies against the exploitation of art workers. The Kazakh pavilion was not immune to controversies itself, after artist Äsel Kadyrhanova's installation Machine (2013) – a meditation on Stalin-era repression featuring a vintage typewriter, Soviet-era arrest warrants, and red thread – was dismantled before the exhibition opened. However, on the day of the pavilion inauguration itself, no trace of the controversies was visible inside the high-ceilinged space. Listening to the Quiet Housed within the Museo Storico Navale near the Arsenale entrance, Qoñyr: The Archive of Silence marks Kazakhstan's third participation in the International Art Exhibition of La Biennale di Venezia, and its most ambitious yet. It is also worth noting that it is the first time a Central Asian nation has selected its pavilion curator and artists through an open call – open to citizens of Kazakhstan, with priority given to those currently living and working in the country. It is a deliberate emphasis on rootedness rather than the diaspora-friendly internationalism that, for better or worse, dominates many national pavilions. The exhibition centres around the word qoñyr, a key term in Kazakh cosmology. While its literal meaning refers to the colour brown, qoñyr carries a far richer metaphorical significance: it can describe a sonic register, the scent of earth, or a form of silence with deeply embodied meaning. It is the attentiveness to minor vibrations – the wind, the breath, a footstep – that renders audible what is usually displaced by noise. The pavilion takes its cue from a traditional Kazakh instrumental composition of the same name by the twentieth-century composer Äbiken Khasenov, whose work embodies a broader cultural shift: as cultural theorist Zira Nauryzbay has noted, Kazakh music before the twentieth century was predominantly composed in major keys, while the century's upheavals – Soviet occupation, famine, mass deportations – precipitated a distinctive turn toward minor tonalities. That sonic transformation is the exhibition's guiding metaphor. "In periods of global instability, attention is often drawn to loud events and immediate reactions," the curator Bekbota explains. "Within this atmosphere of noise, personal memory, everyday experience, and quieter forms of knowledge can easily remain unnoticed." His curatorial wager is that restraint, rather than volume, can...

Population

Uzbekistan Population Growth: 20 Years To Use a Window of Opportunity

Uzbekistan has a limited window of opportunity to turn its rapidly growing young population into a driver of long-term economic growth, according to a new study on demographic trends and human capital development in the country. The report, produced as part of a broader regional study on Central Asia, analyzes the prospects of young people up to the age of 24, as well as the impact that a range of investments in their well-being could have on national development through 2050. Approximately 60% of Uzbekistan’s population is under the age of 30. As this generation enters the workforce, the country is expected to gain the largest labor force in its history. Researchers argue that this creates the conditions for a “demographic dividend,” a period during which a high proportion of working-age citizens can accelerate economic growth and boost productivity. However, the report warns that such an outcome is far from guaranteed. Uzbekistan’s demographic opening is also a labor-market test. UNDP has estimated that around 700,000 young people enter the country’s job market each year, while warning that many graduates still lack practical, market-relevant skills. That makes education, vocational training, and job creation central to whether population growth becomes an economic advantage or a source of pressure. “Uzbekistan risks missing the opportunity for accelerated economic growth due to underdeveloped human capital,” the authors state. One indicator of the challenge is Uzbekistan’s score of 0.6 in the World Bank’s Human Capital Index. This suggests that children born in the country today are likely to realize only 60% of their potential future productivity compared with what would be possible with full access to quality education and good health outcomes. The UN has framed the issue in similar terms, saying targeted investments in early childhood, including health, nutrition, early learning, and social protection, could help close Uzbekistan’s human-capital gap and generate additional economic returns by 2050. Uzbekistan’s population is projected to grow from approximately 38 million people in 2025 to more than 40 million by 2030 and reach around 52 million by 2050. In 2024, the country was home to 11.3 million children under the age of 15, 23.9 million working-age adults, and 2.2 million people aged 65 and older. By 2050, the working-age population is expected to exceed 33 million, while the number of elderly citizens is projected to triple to more than 6 million. Researchers note that Uzbekistan is currently in what demographers describe as the “early-dividend” phase, during which fertility rates gradually decline while the share of working-age citizens continues to rise. The average number of children per woman has fallen from more than four in the early 1990s to approximately 3.45 in 2025 and is expected to decline further to 2.55 by mid-century. The report’s authors argue that the next two decades will be critical for Uzbekistan’s future economic trajectory. They recommend increased investment in education, healthcare, nutrition, child protection, social protection, water supply, sanitation infrastructure, and labor market development. According to the study, investments in human capital during the...