Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Corridor

Middle Corridor Freight Grows, but Eastbound Cargo Lags

Container traffic is growing along the Middle Corridor from China and Central Asia toward Europe, but the route is far less busy in the opposite direction. In the first eight months of 2026, about 80% of container traffic moved westward and only 20% eastward. Operators are now looking for goods in Europe and Türkiye that can be shipped back across the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan toward Central Asia and China. Container traffic totaled 53,574 TEU along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, in January–August. One TEU is equivalent to a standard 20-foot container. During the same period last year, the figure was 48,326 TEU, meaning traffic increased by 11%. But the flows were highly uneven. According to ADY Express, 42,642 TEU moved from east to west, compared with just 10,932 TEU in the opposite direction – a ratio of almost four to one. Interest in the route increased sharply after 2022, when companies began looking for additional ways to move goods between China and Europe without transiting Russia. Over the past several years, participants in the Middle Corridor have focused on increasing shipments from China. New train services have been introduced, while countries along the route have invested in railways, terminals, and Caspian ports. Chinese freight has grown, but there is still not enough cargo for the return journey. For transport operators, the issue comes down to finances. Once containers reach Europe, they need to be used again or repositioned. If there is cargo for the return journey, the equipment generates revenue in both directions. Without it, operators can face the cost of moving empty equipment. The 80%-to-20% split, however, does not establish how many containers actually make the return journey without cargo. Railway companies themselves are now acknowledging the shortage of eastbound cargo. “For this, backhaul freight is necessary,” Emil Mammadov, Adviser to the Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways, said at the Black Sea and Caspian Freight Forum 2026 in Baku. According to Mammadov, attracting cargo from Europe would help increase freight volumes, optimize transportation costs, and allow at least some containers to be returned to their countries of origin. Until now, the route has been promoted more actively in China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye. European companies have received less attention. Railway operators are now looking for customers at the western end of the corridor as well. A shipment from Türkiye showed what such a return journey could look like. In May, KTZ Express and Pasifik Eurasia dispatched a train from Izmir to China carrying household refrigerators. Fifty 40-foot containers crossed the Caspian Sea, traveled through Kazakhstan, and continued into China via the Altynkol border station. For now, such shipments remain limited. The Chinese side continues to push for more westbound traffic. On September 9, Azerbaijan Railways held talks with Shanghai International Port Group and Lianyungang Port on expanding shipments of Chinese goods through Kazakhstan, across the Caspian, and through Azerbaijan toward Europe. ADY Express also reported that 265 container block trains operated along...

Kazakhstan Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Seeks Oil Export Alternatives After Latest CPC Disruption

A drone incident near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal outside Novorossiysk briefly halted oil loading on September 8, again highlighting Kazakhstan’s dependence on its main export route through Russia. Astana is seeking to expand alternatives, but the difference in volumes remains enormous. According to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry, the country exported 64.8 million tons of oil through CPC in 2025. The ministry puts shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline at 1.2 million tons annually. Azerbaijan has said it is ready to receive up to 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil through BTC annually, although KazMunayGas expects shipments of up to 1.6 million tons in 2026. Even this higher figure would be only around 3% of the volume Kazakhstan exported through CPC last year. The Caspian route allows oil from Kazakhstan to bypass Russian territory entirely. Crude is shipped to the port of Aktau, carried by tanker across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and then transported through the BTC pipeline via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. However, the logistics are more complicated than direct pipeline transportation. A substantial increase in exports could require additional tanker capacity and improvements to transport infrastructure on both sides of the Caspian. Kazakhstan also exports oil eastward to China. Another alternative is the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, although it feeds crude into Russia’s pipeline system and does not reduce reliance on Russian transit. The latest incident temporarily stopped loading at two single-point moorings, the offshore facilities used to load crude onto tankers. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said inspections of the equipment and vessels found no issues affecting continued loading. It reported no environmental impact. Loading resumed, and CPC imposed no restrictions on accepting crude from Kazakh shippers. CPC operations had already been interrupted several times in 2026 following attacks in the terminal area. The disruptions have added up. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov estimated that incidents affecting CPC in January and July had caused about 3.5 million tons of lost production. He said Kazakhstan would have to lower its 2026 oil production forecast from 98 million tons to around 96 million tons. The problem for Astana is the scale of its dependence. CPC connects Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields to the Black Sea and accounted for approximately 82% of the country’s 78.7 million tons of oil exports in 2025. Even doubling or tripling shipments across the Caspian would leave CPC dominant. Kazakhstan can gradually spread its exports across several routes, but the alternatives cannot currently replace its main export channel. For more on our special coverage, click here.

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: From BlackRock to Mining and Data Centers

In a trading hall in Astana, BlackRock was explaining why investors have become more cautious. A few floors away, geologists were pitching 23 mining projects, while financiers debated how many megawatts the next wave of artificial intelligence will require. That was how the first day of Astana Finance Days unfolded, as Kazakhstan brought together financial groups managing more than $26 trillion in assets – and sought to show them where that money could be put to work in Central Asia. The ninth Astana Finance Days is taking place on September 9–10 at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), Kazakhstan’s special financial jurisdiction with its own regulator and a court system based on English common law principles. According to the organizers, around 8,000 participants from 90 countries registered for the forum. Institutions represented include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group, Brookfield, Rothschild & Co., Hong Kong Investment Corporation, and IFC Asset Management Company. The stated $26 trillion refers to the combined assets under management of participating firms worldwide – not investment pledged to Kazakhstan. More concrete signals emerged on the sidelines. Meshal Jaber AlFaras, Janus Henderson Investors’ head of the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, said the investment group is considering direct investments in Kazakhstan and plans to expand its presence in the country. Janus Henderson manages around $500 billion in assets. AlFaras did not disclose potential projects or investment amounts. A New Price for Risk One of the first day’s most prominent discussions took place at the Astana International Exchange (AIX), the AIFC’s stock exchange. Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at the BlackRock Investment Institute, spoke about how geopolitics is reshaping capital flows. “Today, we are in a structurally new regime – moving into a more complicated world where geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, alliances are breaking down, and international relationships are changing. Of course, this affects investors. They need to completely rethink their approaches to investing,” Powell said. Higher inflation and interest rates, he continued, are changing attitudes toward risk. For smaller emerging markets, that means greater scrutiny of currency stability, regulation, and liquidity. A few halls away, that global discussion was already turning into pitches for specific mineral projects. From the Geological Map to the Investor Fifteen companies brought 23 mining projects to Astana Finance Days. Most are still at the exploration stage. In the industry, such companies are known as juniors. They search for mineral deposits and try to demonstrate that the resources they discover can eventually be mined profitably. For an ordinary bank, the risk is high: a promising area on a geological map does not yet guarantee a working mine. At the forum, companies briefly pitched their projects before moving into individual negotiations. More than ten Kazakh and international investors and strategic partners attended the pitch session. The Junior Mining Platform, launched this spring, is intended to turn this search for capital into a permanent mechanism. Private investors take on early geological risk; as reserves are confirmed and technical uncertainty declines, larger...

Astana Finance Days 2026

S&P Bolsters Kazakhstan’s Standing as Central Asia’s Financial Hub

S&P Global Ratings has improved its assessment of Kazakhstan’s banking industry as Astana Finance Days opens on September 9, lowering the industry risk score for the country’s banking system from 7 to 6 and citing stronger regulation and supervision. According to Kazakhstan’s Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market, the September 4 decision improved the industry risk component of S&P’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment, or BICRA. S&P also changed the trend on Kazakhstan’s separate economic risk assessment from stable to positive. S&P’s BICRA framework evaluates banking systems on a scale of 1 to 10, with lower numbers indicating lower risk. Industry risk assesses factors including banking regulation and supervision, competitive dynamics, and the stability of systemwide funding. Kazakhstan’s overall BICRA grouping remains at 7, while its industry risk score improved from 7 to 6. The industry risk comparison puts the change in perspective. S&P’s published assessments place the United States at 3, Germany at 4, and Brazil at 5. Kazakhstan’s new score of 6 places it alongside banking systems including Bahrain, Oman and Thailand in recent S&P assessments. Within Central Asia, the difference is wider. S&P has assigned Kyrgyzstan an industry-risk score of 8 and Uzbekistan a score of 9. S&P does not currently publish BICRA assessments for Tajikistan or Turkmenistan. S&P also considers Kazakhstan’s banking regulation and supervision more effective than those of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, according to the Kazakh regulator. Stronger Supervision The regulator attributed S&P’s decision to regular asset-quality reviews, risk-based supervisory assessments and measures to limit excessive bank risk-taking, particularly in retail lending. It also cited tighter capital and liquidity oversight and stress testing. The change has already affected individual institutions. The regulator reported an upgrade of the Bank Center Credit’s long-term rating to BB+, while Halyk Bank’s BBB− rating received a positive outlook, indicating the possibility of a future upgrade. The banking decision follows S&P’s August 21 sovereign upgrade from BBB− to BBB with a stable outlook. Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s only investment-grade sovereign. In an interview with TCA, National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov linked that improvement to a stronger monetary policy framework, banking resilience, and closer coordination with the government. Kazakhstan also has Central Asia’s most developed capital markets. Almaty’s banks, professional services and Kazakhstan Stock Exchange operate alongside the Astana International Financial Centre and its exchange, giving the country an established concentration of financial business. Capital on the Agenda The timing of S&P’s decision gives the assessment added relevance as Kazakhstan hosts Astana Finance Days. The forum’s announced program includes regulation, law and market confidence, capital market development, and financing for the real economy. Organizers expect more than 5,500 participants from over 80 countries, with representatives of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and Brookfield among the confirmed speakers. In an August 27 interview with TCA, Zhanbolat Kakishev, chief product officer at the AIFC Authority, said a cumulative $26.3 billion in investment had been attracted to Kazakhstan through the center’s ecosystem, which included more than 6,000 registered companies from 90 countries....

Nuclear Disarmament

Central Asian States Call for New Arms Controls as Nuclear Framework Weakens

Foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have called for new, verifiable arms control mechanisms to prevent a nuclear arms race, warning that international disarmament efforts are losing ground. In a joint statement issued on September 8 to mark 20 years since the signing of the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, the five governments expressed concern over stalled disarmament, the end of key agreements, and the modernization of nuclear arsenals. They urged nuclear powers to resume negotiations. The statement comes seven months after New START, the last U.S.-Russian strategic nuclear arms treaty, expired on February 5. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said its expiration left the two countries without binding limits on their strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time in more than half a century. President Donald Trump has criticized New START as a “badly negotiated deal” and called instead for a new, modernized arms control treaty that would include China. The ministers also cited the failure of the Eleventh Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which ended without a consensus outcome on May 22. Kazakhstan had already advanced a similar position. As TCA reported, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used the August 29 anniversary of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site’s closure to call for negotiations among nuclear powers, the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and renewed multilateral action to reduce nuclear risks. Kazakhstan’s connection to the issue extends beyond diplomacy. The Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests at Semipalatinsk between 1949 and 1989. Kazakhstan closed the site in 1991 and subsequently relinquished the nuclear arsenal it had inherited after the Soviet collapse. The regional treaty was signed in Semipalatinsk on September 8, 2006, and entered into force in 2009. It established the first nuclear-weapon-free zone located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere, directly bordering two nuclear-weapon states, Russia and China. That history gives Kazakhstan a distinctive place in regional nuclear diplomacy. Uzbekistan originated the proposal for the zone, presenting it at the UN General Assembly in September 1993. The September 8 statement explicitly acknowledges Uzbekistan’s initiative while crediting all five countries with establishing the zone. The statement also recognizes Kyrgyzstan for initiating the International Day for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Awareness, observed annually on March 5, and Turkmenistan for chairing the December 2024 anniversary meeting in Ashgabat. Kazakhstan has also helped coordinate cooperation beyond Central Asia. In August 2024, it hosted a conference in Astana with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs to strengthen cooperation among nuclear-weapon-free zones, following an earlier meeting in 2019. The five states also renewed their appeal for the United States to ratify a protocol providing security assurances to the region. In May 2014, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States signed the protocol on negative security assurances, committing not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against the five Central Asian treaty members. The other four signatories have ratified it. Washington has not. The request is longstanding. The five governments made the same appeal...

Bilateral Relations

Trade and Migrant Workers Fuel Serbia’s Growing Ties with Uzbekistan

BELGRADE – While seeking to join the European Union – a process that has been going on for nearly two decades – Serbia is also moving to build closer relations with Central Asia. After expanding cooperation with Kazakhstan earlier this year, the Southeast European nation is now looking to replicate that momentum in its relations with Uzbekistan. At first glance, the two countries seem to have little in common. Serbia is a relatively small economy with strong ties to European markets, while Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s most populous nation and one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Yet the two states are actively expanding their cooperation. On September 8, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and his Uzbek counterpart, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, signed a joint statement establishing a strategic partnership between Belgrade and Tashkent. Uzbekistan’s leader’s visit to Serbia comes less than a year after Vucic made his first official trip to the Central Asian state. In the meantime, the Serbian government announced its plans to open an embassy in Tashkent – a move that will undoubtedly further strengthen diplomatic and economic ties between the two countries. While the economy was at the top of the agenda during Vucic and Mirziyoyev’s talks in Belgrade, the meeting also carried significant political importance for the Serbian leader. Mirziyoyev arrived in Serbia on September 7, when thousands of people gathered to attend the funeral of former Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic. His death and the public tribute to him have reopened divisions over Serbia’s wartime legacy and further complicated its relationship with the European Union. Vucic had a long-standing reason not to attend the ceremony: he was due to meet Mirziyoyev at the airport. However, multiple opposition figures accused the Serbian leader of using Mirziyoyev’s visit as a justification for staying away, with one alleging that the visit had actually been rescheduled to give him an excuse. The following day, the two leaders, as well as Serbian and Uzbek delegations, signed 20 agreements in various fields, from digitalization and renewable energy to trade, transport, agriculture, tourism, healthcare, and culture. Vucic even hinted that Serbia aims to expand military ties with Uzbekistan. As he stressed, Belgrade plans to develop long-range ballistic missiles over the next year and has invited Uzbekistan to cooperate in this area. Meanwhile, the Southeast European nation is expected to establish direct flights between Belgrade and Tashkent within the next seven to eight months. More importantly, Serbia, which has free trade agreements with the European Union, China, Turkey, the UK, and the Eurasian Economic Union, as well as regional Balkan nations, hopes to strike such a deal with Uzbekistan. According to Jagoda Lazarevic, the country’s Minister of Internal and Foreign Trade, if the process succeeds, Serbia would become the first European country to enter into free trade talks with Uzbekistan. However, bilateral trade between the two nations remains relatively small, reaching $41.8 million in 2025. By comparison, according to data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration, trade between the largest Central Asian country...