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U.S.-China Competition

China-Uzbekistan Economic Ties Expand as U.S. Seeks New Deals

Chinese Premier Li Qiang visited Uzbekistan on October 17–18, just ahead of United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who arrived in Samarkand on October 18 with a delegation of American business leaders seeking new contracts. While China already has a substantial presence in Uzbek manufacturing and energy, Washington is seeking to expand American involvement in critical minerals and technology. The visits highlight the growing competition between the world's two largest economies for influence in Central Asia. On October 17, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev received Li Qiang. According to the Uzbek presidential administration, the portfolio of joint projects backed by firm agreements has reached nearly $60 billion. More than 6,000 joint ventures with Chinese participation have been established in Uzbekistan. China is Uzbekistan's largest trading partner. Bilateral trade totaled approximately $16–18 billion in 2025, according to Chinese and Uzbek figures. China accounted for 23% of Uzbekistan's total foreign trade turnover in January–August 2026. Railway Through Kyrgyzstan Construction of the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway was another topic of discussion. Work officially began in December 2024. The route will cross mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and connect the railway networks of China and Uzbekistan. The 304-kilometer section through Kyrgyzstan alone is estimated to cost $4.7 billion and will require 50 bridges and 29 tunnels. Uzbekistan is landlocked, making the cost and timing of its international freight shipments heavily dependent on transit conditions in neighboring countries. The railway through Kyrgyzstan will provide an additional route, reducing reliance on transit through Kazakhstan and potentially shortening journeys between China and Uzbekistan. Beijing considers the railway part of its efforts to develop overland connections under the Belt and Road Initiative. Rubio Arrives with American Business Delegation On October 19, Rubio attended talks in Samarkand under the C5+1 format, bringing together the U.S. and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Rubio said nearly 300 American businesses were represented in Samarkand. Companies were discussing agreements potentially worth billions of dollars, with concrete announcements expected following the meetings. Among Washington's priorities are critical minerals used in advanced technologies, including electronics and batteries. The U.S. is seeking new sources of raw materials and opportunities to process them outside China. Beijing holds a dominant position in processing several of these materials, and American companies are interested in alternative suppliers. Uzbekistan's mineral deposits include copper and uranium. For Tashkent, an important question is whether American investment will bring new processing facilities and jobs or concentrate mainly on extracting and exporting raw materials. Speaking to reporters in Samarkand, Rubio said the U.S. was not asking Central Asian countries to end cooperation with other partners. Washington intends to compete for contracts and investment projects. Chinese Enterprises and American Contracts The gap between China and the U.S. is particularly stark in trade. According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, American goods trade with Uzbekistan totaled just $1.05 billion in 2025, less than one-fifteenth of the value of Uzbekistan's trade with China. Including services, U.S.–Uzbek trade reached approximately $1.7 billion. Economic cooperation with the U.S. is developing through...

Remittances

Opinion: The Remittance Economy’s Promise: How Migration Could Support Women Entrepreneurs in Uzbekistan

Migration has become a major socio-economic process, substantially affecting Uzbekistan’s economic development and quality of life. The primary destination countries for labor migrants from Uzbekistan have been Russia, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Korea, and Turkey, as well as certain European and Asian countries. Remittances from migrants have become a major source of foreign currency inflows and a key form of economic support for households. Over time, they have raised economic activity and contributed to greater currency stability. In 2025, remittance inflows to Uzbekistan rose 28% compared to 2024, reaching $18.9 billion. Despite the positive growth of Uzbekistan’s economy, the country still faces limited employment opportunities. Although the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, a noticeable improvement, around 760,000 people remained unemployed and were looking for work. In 2025, the official average monthly salary in Uzbekistan was 6,376,700 soums (about $530 at the year-end exchange rate). This remains relatively low, pushing many working-age people to seek work abroad. When people picture remittances flowing into Central Asia, they usually imagine one scenario: the father who has gone abroad, sending his family in Uzbekistan “survival money” for rent, groceries, and school fees. In some small districts of Uzbekistan, however, this picture is starting to look different. That same money can now also become a source of opportunity: a sewing machine, a voucher for educational courses, or a business plan with a woman’s name on it. A Policy Shift Begins While remittances have substantially improved the living standards of recipient households and have become a crucial source of foreign currency for Uzbekistan, their effect on women is more complex. For some families, money sent home from abroad has been considered “out of the system.” These funds regularly supported family budgets, but financial institutions did not always recognize them as income. Recipients could lack the documented income or credit history needed to qualify for a loan, even when their families had received remittances for many years. However, a pilot program launched in March 2026 by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the European Union in cooperation with Hamkorbank, one of Uzbekistan’s leading banks, aims to change the picture. According to IFAD, the program’s credit scoring model uses remittances to assess a borrower’s ability to repay a loan. This approach could be transformational for rural women who struggle to access credit directly. It could enable rural borrowers to access formal loans, invest in small businesses, and build a credit history. Alongside the financial support, 900 rural residents, at least 50% of whom will be women, will have access to business and financial literacy training. In addition, 100 participants will receive enterprise mentoring to help them run or scale up their businesses. Faces Behind the Numbers Women face many obstacles in accessing credit, finding employment, and launching a business. According to the World Bank, they own nearly a third of registered micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises in Uzbekistan but receive only about 14% of loans to those businesses. This may be due to limited collateral or...

C5+1

Uzbekistan Signs Space Accords as Rubio Opens Samarkand Talks

Uzbekistan joined the U.S.-led Artemis Accords on October 19 as Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks in Samarkand. The signing accompanied the first Enhanced Strategic Partnership Dialogue between the two countries, with critical minerals among the priorities. Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov announced the signing after bilateral talks with Rubio. He said Uzbekistan had become the 77th country to join the framework for peaceful space exploration. Saidov said accession would support closer cooperation with NASA and other participating space agencies. He identified training for Uzbek specialists and access to space technologies as potential benefits. Established in 2020, the Artemis Accords set out principles for civilian space exploration. Signatories commit to peaceful operations and greater transparency, including sharing scientific data. The framework also addresses interference between missions and the preservation of historic sites in space. NASA describes the accords as nonbinding principles. Posting on X, Rubio confirmed he had met all five Central Asian foreign ministers during the C5+1 gathering. He said cooperation would expand commercial opportunities and strengthen regional security. American businesses also joined the visit as Washington seeks deeper economic ties across Central Asia. The visit follows the November 2025 White House summit, where Trump hosted all five Central Asian presidents. That meeting gave the partnership a stronger commercial focus, with aircraft orders and minerals projects featuring prominently. Samarkand brings ministers and businesses together to advance that agenda. The strategic dialogue focused on implementing agreements reached by the countries’ leaders and expanding economic cooperation. Saidov said the discussions covered energy and advanced technologies, alongside critical minerals. Education and security cooperation were also on the agenda. Rubio said separately that the talks addressed infrastructure and space cooperation, as well as engagement through C5+1, which brings together the United States and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In a separate meeting with Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi, Rubio reaffirmed plans to expand economic and security cooperation. He thanked Kazakhstan for supporting “President Trump’s peace initiatives, including the Abraham Accords.” Speaking to reporters in Samarkand, Rubio said nearly 300 American businesses were represented, and that agreements potentially worth billions of dollars were under discussion. He presented the visit as the start of deeper U.S. economic engagement with Central Asia. “I think we’ll have some concrete deals to announce,” he said, according to Euronews. A final list of agreements and their value had not been circulated at the time of those remarks. Rubio identified critical minerals as a priority, arguing that concentrated supplies created risks for countries dependent on them. "This is not about coming here to say, stop talking to somebody else or stop working with some other country," he said. Days earlier, at the October 15 summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia in Baku, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed a transport strategy spanning several international initiatives. His proposal included China’s Belt and Road and the planned Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) through Armenia. It illustrated the region’s pursuit of transport links involving...

Air Pollution

Air Pollution in Central Asia: Why Winter Smog Persists in Almaty, Bishkek, and Tashkent

Almaty is investing 325.9 billion tenge (about $720 million) in converting a coal-fired power plant to natural gas, but the plant will continue burning coal for several more years. Bishkek is restricting certain types of coal while maintaining supplies of permitted fuel for winter. Tashkent reported lower pollution over much of the year, though early October brought a sharp increase in harmful particles. Across these three Central Asian cities, winter smog remains a problem as the heating season begins. According to World Bank estimates, concentrations of fine particulate matter, known as PM2.5, in major Central Asian cities frequently exceed World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines by six to twelve times, particularly in winter. PM2.5 particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and increase the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. During colder months, emissions from heating and transportation accumulate near the ground. When winds are weak and temperature inversions occur, polluted air can remain trapped over a city for several days. Almaty: Gas Conversion, Coal Remains Almaty's heating season began on October 9, with schools and hospitals connected first, followed by residential buildings on October 10. By then, the modernization of CHP-2, the city's largest coal-fired heating plant and one of its biggest sources of industrial emissions, had yet to be completed. According to project estimates, converting the plant to natural gas should reduce annual emissions of harmful substances from 37,300 tons to 2,700 tons. However, those reductions will not be achieved immediately after the new equipment begins operating. Environmental assessment documents cited by Kursiv indicate that coal-fired boilers and turbines will continue operating alongside gas-fired units in 2027–2029 during commissioning and periods of peak winter demand. The documents also envisage keeping coal-fired equipment in operation into the 2030s to safeguard energy supplies in case of gas shortages. Vehicle exhaust is another major problem for Almaty. In April, the city introduced a pilot low-emission zone (LEZ) in its center. Until the end of the year, the zone is operating without entry fees, fines, or traffic restrictions. Separately, citywide emissions checks have been underway since the beginning of 2026. By late August, inspectors had tested 5,496 vehicles and found 1,301 exceeding emissions limits, nearly a quarter of those checked. Violations detected during citywide inspections can result in penalties. Bishkek: Coal Restrictions, but No Easy Alternative In Bishkek, the main cause of winter smog is heating in private homes. Residential heating accounts for approximately 29% of air pollution, transportation for 27%, and dust for 21%. Combined emissions from the main thermal power plant and smaller boiler houses account for 11%, according to international research cited by the city administration. In October 2025, the municipal authorities imposed restrictions on the sale, storage, and use of fine coal in Bishkek. They also stepped up inspections targeting waste burning and began converting some boiler houses to cleaner fuels. On October 1, 2026, the mayor's office announced plans to maintain adequate supplies of coal meeting quality standards at fuel depots across the city. For many private residents,...

Foreign Investment

Citibank Kazakhstan Chairperson Sees Opportunities for U.S.-Central Asia Collaboration

Foreign investors are looking outside Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector. But turning that interest into investment will require predictable regulations and stronger cross-border connections, according to Saule Zhakayeva, chairperson of Citibank Kazakhstan’s management board and president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan (AmCham). Citi has operated in Kazakhstan since 1994, when it opened a representative office in Almaty. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Zhakayeva discussed the country’s investment climate and its role as a regional business hub. She also addressed the future of economic relations between the United States and Kazakhstan. TCA: How is foreign investor interest in Central Asia evolving, and which of Kazakhstan’s strengths are already translating into investment? Where do you see the strongest commercial opportunities over the next three to five years, and what would help turn untapped potential into committed capital? Zhakayeva: Investors today are looking for markets that combine economic stability, access to natural resources, strategic geography, and long-term growth potential. Kazakhstan offers each of these attributes. The country has established itself as the largest economy in Central Asia, maintains a relatively strong institutional framework, and continues to pursue reforms aimed at improving the investment climate. Most notably, investor interest is becoming increasingly diversified. Historically, foreign investment was concentrated primarily in oil and gas. Today, we see growing interest in transportation and logistics, renewable energy, critical minerals, digital infrastructure, financial services, manufacturing, and data-related investments. This growing interest is also reflected in the increasing level of engagement between international investors and Kazakhstan. As President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan, I have seen firsthand the strong momentum in U.S.-Kazakhstan business relations. Throughout 2026, Kazakhstan has hosted a growing number of high-level business engagements involving senior representatives of American companies and institutions, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Business Mission to Kazakhstan and other executive-level dialogues focused on investment, trade, digital transformation, energy, and infrastructure. AmCham Kazakhstan also led its first business delegation to Washington, D.C., bringing member companies together to strengthen bilateral economic ties, promote Kazakhstan's investment opportunities, and advocate for deeper economic cooperation. These activities underscore the growing recognition of Kazakhstan and Central Asia as strategically important destinations for long-term investment and commercial cooperation. More importantly, they are beginning to translate into tangible outcomes. For example, in 2026, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced plans to explore up to $700 million in financing opportunities to support the development of Kazakhstan's critical minerals sector. Kazakhstan's location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia has become increasingly important as global companies diversify supply chains and seek alternative trade routes. The development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is further strengthening Kazakhstan's role in regional and global commerce, creating opportunities far beyond traditional sectors. Similar dynamics are being observed across the region, where alternative trade routes, logistics investments, and infrastructure development are becoming increasingly important to global investors. We are also seeing growing international interest in strategic sectors linked to global energy security and the energy transition....

CICA

CICA’s Next Chapter in Asian Cooperation

At the October 15 summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Baku, Kazakhstan proposed a mechanism for preventive diplomacy to address disputes before they escalate. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the mechanism would give each member state a role in decision-making and help translate political commitments into coordinated action. If adopted, the proposal could increase Astana’s influence among Asia’s larger powers by making its founding initiative more enduring. Influence Through an Asian Agenda Kazakhstan already coordinates CICA’s military-political dimension, working with Türkiye on military exchanges, training-center visits, and seminars that include mediation. Kazakhstan could draw on these exchanges when seeking members’ agreement on a mandate for preventive diplomacy. They provide experience of organizing cooperation in a politically sensitive field, although a standing role in addressing emerging disputes would require a separate political agreement defining what members authorize the mechanism to do. The Think Tank Forum offers another example of Kazakhstan’s influence over CICA’s institutional development. China initiated the Forum in 2014; its transformation into a permanent CICA advisory body followed in October 2021, when member states acted on Tokayev’s initiative. Azerbaijan hosted the first meeting outside China in September 2025, at which the handover to the Indian Council of World Affairs was announced; the latter now chairs the Forum for 2026–2027. Kazakhstan thus helped turn a Chinese initiative into a permanent CICA advisory body that Azerbaijani and Indian institutions subsequently helped sustain. China also contributes funding and seconded personnel to the Secretariat; Kazakhstan can build influence by securing agreement on standing arrangements through which other members pursue their priorities. At the Baku summit, Tokayev also proposed establishing a CICA Water Partnership to promote joint research, technology exchange, and water-saving measures. He suggested that Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan could jointly advance a proposal for an International Water Organization under the United Nations. These proposals could give Kazakhstan a role in shaping cooperation on water security within CICA and, through a joint regional initiative, at the UN. Kazakhstan's Foundational Role in CICA's Development Kazakhstan conceived CICA in 1992 and has led its institutional development, including the effort to transform it into a full-fledged international organization. The initiative has a constituency extending well beyond Central Asia. Fifteen states adopted CICA’s first founding declaration in 1999. With Laos’s accession at Baku, CICA now has 29 members, ranging from China, India, Pakistan, and Russia to Iran, Israel, and South Korea. The 2022 Astana summit launched CICA’s transformation into a full-fledged international organization. The Road Map endorsed by member states in 2023 specified reforms through which to pursue that transformation. The reforms cover the Charter, implementation of confidence-building measures, procedural rules, and the Secretariat’s organization. These changes affect CICA’s capacity to carry agreements forward between high-level meetings. Within CICA, the consensus rule makes collective agreement a condition both of institutional change and of policy coordination. Kazakhstan thus has an interest in the procedures through which future cooperation will be organized. Cambodia’s pre-summit ratification of the convention on the Secretariat’s...