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Census

Uzbekistan Census Reveals Bigger Population, Younger Pressure, and Planning Gaps

Uzbekistan's first full census since the Soviet era has found more than 810,000 people who were missing from the country's running estimates, shifting the baseline for schools, clinics, housing, labor forecasts, regional budgets, and agriculture. The preliminary results put Uzbekistan's population at 39,047,321 as of January 15, 2026. That was 810,617 more than the official estimate used at the start of the year. The gap is only 2.1% in percentage terms, but in practical terms it is the size of a major city. The count also shows a country that is larger, younger, and harder to plan for than regular estimates suggested. It gives the authorities a new map of where people live, how old they are, what homes they occupy, and how much farmland and livestock the economy really has. National Statistics Committee Chairman Behzod Hamrayev presented the first results in Tashkent on June 30. The count was part of a combined population and agricultural census held from January 15 to February 28 under a September 2025 decree. It was the first such count in independent Uzbekistan. The last nationwide census took place in 1989, when the country was still part of the Soviet Union. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Uzbekistan's permanent population was estimated at 38,236,704 on January 1, 2026. Two weeks later, the census found 39,047,321 people. Men numbered 19,766,166, or 50.6% of the population, and women 19,281,155, or 49.4%. The census also counted 56,900 foreign citizens who had lived in Uzbekistan for more than a year, mostly from India, Russia, and Kazakhstan. The largest corrections appear to be regional. Most of the 810,617-person difference was concentrated in Tashkent Region. Its population rose from an estimate of about 3.2 million to nearly 3.8 million, moving it from seventh to third among Uzbekistan's 14 administrative territories. Five regions, Namangan, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, and Bukhara, came in below earlier estimates. The changes represent more than a statistical adjustment: a region that suddenly has about 600,000 more people on paper needs different calculations for roads, schools, clinics, water networks, public transport, land use, and housing. It also changes the way Tashkent Region is compared with the capital and other fast-growing parts of the country. The first demographic results show the pressure that is coming through the age structure. Children under five were the largest age group, at 4.6 million. There were 3.86 million people aged 5-9 and 3.41 million aged 10-14. The working-age population stood at 21.7 million, while 12.5 million people were below working age. Nearly 169,000 residents were 85 or older. Uzbekistan is not Central Asia's youngest country, but it is the region's largest young society. OSW put Central Asia's median age at 26.6, with Tajikistan the youngest at 22.1 and Kazakhstan the oldest at 29.6. By comparison, Eurostat said the European Union's median age reached 44.9 on January 1, 2025. Uzbekistan's challenge is therefore different from Europe's: it must educate, house, employ, and retain a large rising generation. The housing results also changed planning...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team covers a new election date being set in Kazakhstan, with the country's largest party staying off the ballot, rare protests in Turkmenistan over blackouts and economic frustration, the removal of one of Ashgabat's most important religious figures, renewed clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, fuel shortages hitting much of Central Asia, and border swap deals that have seen thousands of people suddenly finding themselves in a new country. Before then turning to our main story this week, where the dramatic end to the Kamchybek Tashiev trials has delivered one of the biggest moments in Kyrgyz politics this year. Special guest: Medet Tulegenov (Director of the Silk Road Research Center).

Bilateral Relations

Uzbekistan and Georgia Deepen Ties as Tashkent Eyes Black Sea Routes

Uzbekistan and Georgia have elevated their relations to a strategic partnership as Tashkent seeks wider access to Black Sea ports and new routes linking Central Asia with European markets. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Mirziyoyev traveled to Georgia on a July 2-3 state visit aimed at expanding cooperation in trade, transport, investment, and regional connectivity. The visit concluded with the signing of a Strategic Partnership Declaration and a series of agreements designed to deepen political and economic ties. Uzbekistan and Georgia established diplomatic relations on August 19, 1994. Their cooperation was formalized a year later with the signing of the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation. While political dialogue has continued over the years, bilateral engagement has accelerated since 2022 through regular presidential meetings, visits by prime ministers, sessions of the intergovernmental commission, and consultations between the two countries’ foreign ministries. Last year, on March 5, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze visited Tashkent, where the two sides discussed expanding cooperation. The latest visit built on those discussions. According to the Uzbek presidential press service, the two leaders agreed to strengthen cooperation in politics, trade, investment, transport, tourism, and humanitarian exchanges. Bilateral trade reached $270 million in 2025, and has already exceeded $100 million since the beginning of this year. Both governments adopted the goal of increasing annual trade to $1 billion through a dedicated roadmap, reducing trade imbalances, and expanding exports through reciprocal industrial exhibitions. Transport and logistics featured prominently in the talks. The leaders agreed to expand the use of Georgia’s Poti and Batumi ports for Uzbek cargo and supported plans to establish a logistics hub that would include an industrial zone and a permanent showroom for Uzbek products. Mirziyoyev also proposed linking the future China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway with the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, a move that could create a new transport corridor connecting Central Asia with European markets. The two countries also agreed to establish a joint investment fund and launch new industrial projects in agriculture, electrical engineering, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy, food processing, construction materials, digital technologies, digital banking, and tourism. Uzbekistan will also open an embassy in Georgia, while educational and tourism forums are scheduled to take place later this year. Political analyst Mukhtor Nazirov believes the visit represents more than a routine diplomatic exchange. Speaking to local media, he argued that Georgia is increasingly becoming Uzbekistan’s gateway to Europe as Tashkent seeks to diversify its foreign trade routes. “Today, a country’s economic opportunities are largely determined by its transport corridors and access to foreign markets,” Nazirov said. “The signing of the Strategic Partnership Declaration is therefore an important event in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy.” Nazirov noted that the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, commonly known as the Middle Corridor, has become increasingly important for Uzbekistan. According to him, the route carried 12% of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade cargo in 2021, but that share has now risen to 28%. Official figures show that 1.2 million tons of cargo were transported along the corridor in 2025, while container train transit times to...

Fuel Supply

Kyrgyzstan Looks Beyond Russia as Fuel Squeeze Hits Central Asia

Kyrgyzstan has asked Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to help secure its fuel supplies as shortages inside Russia put new strain on Central Asia's fuel market. The move follows reduced Russian refining capacity after Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, seasonal demand, and tighter export controls. “Due to the lack of adequate oil and gas production, we remain a country dependent on imports,” Deputy Energy Minister Nasipbek Kerimov told Birinchi Radio. “Kyrgyzstan annually consumes approximately 2 million tons of various types of fuel and lubricants, and almost 95% of this volume comes from Russia.” The dependence rests on long-standing trade terms; Russia supplies oil products to Kyrgyzstan duty-free under annual indicative balances within the Eurasian Economic Union. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said in October 2025 that balances for 2026 had already been signed. The system has helped hold down prices, but it also leaves the market exposed when Russian refineries or export rules change. Kyrgyz officials have tried to calm consumers. The Energy Ministry said fuel reserves were sufficient, supplies were moving under existing contracts, and that “official requests have been sent” to relevant governments to support stable supplies. Local officials also pressed Kyrgyzneftegaz and the Junda refinery to increase domestic production and deliveries. The pressure is not equal across all fuel types. AI-95 and AI-98 gasoline have disappeared from some filling stations, while AI-92 reserves remain stronger. Oil Traders Association head Kanatbek Eshatov told Kaktus.media that AI-92 stocks would last 30 to 45 days, depending on the company. He said the AI-95 problem could be solved “in a couple of weeks, if refineries recover after the shelling.” Diesel remains available, and farmers had stocked up before harvest work began, he added. As of July 6, AI-95 remained unavailable at some Bishkek filling stations. Bishkek has also moved on prices, with the Cabinet introducing temporary price regulation under Resolution No. 369 of May 25, 2026. The system subsidizes importers and sellers until September 30 by compensating the gap between market prices and fixed benchmark import prices. In Bishkek, capped pump prices are 79.9 soms per liter for AI-92 gasoline, 88.9 soms for AI-95 and 93.9 soms for diesel, equal to about $3.46, $3.85 and $4.06 per U.S. gallon. The state is using subsidies to prevent a sharper jump at the pump. Kerimov said prices would stay unchanged while talks continued with suppliers. “We are currently offered fuel at various prices,” he said, and even if purchase prices rise, “there should be no shortage on the domestic market.” President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on June 28 that fuel shortages inside Russia had created queues at filling stations. “Problems for drivers and for businesses persist,” he said, adding that “the harvest depends on” keeping seasonal fuel schedules for farms. Russian officials said gasoline reserves stood at 1.7 million metric tons, but Moscow was considering a complete ban on diesel exports. Russia had already imposed temporary restrictions on gasoline exports, with exemptions for some intergovernmental arrangements. Reuters reported on June...

United States

Tokayev Congratulates Trump as Kazakhstan Marks America’s 250th Independence Anniversary

Tokayev Congratulates Trump as Kazakhstan Marks America’s 250th Independence Anniversary ASTANA — President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev congratulated U.S. President Donald Trump on the 250th anniversary of the independence of the United States, calling the milestone a symbol of the American people’s enduring commitment to freedom, equality and justice. In his message, Tokayev noted Trump’s personal contribution to the continued development of Kazakh-American relations and reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s readiness to further strengthen the expanded strategic partnership between the two countries. The Kazakh leader wished Trump success in his state duties and extended wishes of well-being and prosperity to the American people. The congratulatory message came as Kazakhstan joined U.S. Independence Day commemorations marking America’s semiquincentennial. In a separate celebration of the bilateral relationship, the U.S. Embassy in Kazakhstan announced that several prominent landmarks would be illuminated in honor of America’s 250th anniversary. The buildings include Astana’s Nur Alem sphere and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy building, as well as Almaty’s Kok-Tobe tower. The U.S. embassy described the illumination as a symbol of the U.S.-Kazakhstan relationship, noting that the anniversary also coincides with 35 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries. [caption id="attachment_51530" align="alignnone" width="2560"] Nur Alem Sphere and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy building in Astana, July 4, 2026[/caption] The coordinated gestures underscored the steady growth of ties between Astana and Washington, which have expanded across diplomacy, trade, investment, energy, security and people-to-people contacts since Kazakhstan’s independence. For Kazakhstan, the anniversary offered an opportunity to recognize a historic American milestone while also highlighting the durability of its own partnership with the United States. Together, Tokayev’s message and the illumination of landmark buildings in Astana and Almaty placed Kazakhstan among the countries marking the United States’ 250th Independence Day through official greetings and public displays of friendship.

Political Memory

Opinion: The Specter Is Back – A Kazakh Warning to America

I was educated and began my career under Soviet communism in Kazakhstan. For many Americans, communism may sound like a policy argument. For us, it is also family memory — famine, confiscation, repression, camps and fear, all justified in the language of equality and justice. When communism returns to the American political debate, people from Kazakhstan listen carefully. “A specter is haunting Europe, the specter of communism.” That is how The Communist Manifesto by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels began in 1848. Nearly two centuries later, the specter has not disappeared. It has changed its vocabulary, its political costumes and its geography. But the old temptation remains. It promises justice by concentrating power. In late June, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that communism was the greatest threat to the United States, greater, he said, than World War I, World War II, Pearl Harbor, or September 11. His language was characteristically blunt. Critics were right to say that democratic socialism is not the same thing as Soviet communism, and that the word “communist” should not be used carelessly in ordinary partisan debate. Still, the historical concern behind the warning should not be dismissed. Not every welfare program is communism. Not every democratic socialist is a Bolshevik. Every modern state helps its citizens in some form. The real question is when help becomes control. When does compassion become coercion? When does the state begin claiming the right to decide prices, property, production, speech and moral legitimacy in the name of “the people”? People who lived under communism know the danger. Why a Kazakh Voice Belongs in This Debate For an outside observer, it may seem strange that socialism and communism are again being debated in the United States, the stronghold of advanced capitalism, as Soviet theorists once described it. Yet the explanation is not mysterious. Congressional elections are approaching. Recent primary victories by candidates who identify with democratic socialism have brought these questions back into mainstream American politics. Of course, this does not mean the United States is on the eve of a Bolshevik revolution. America has elections, courts, private property, constitutional limits, and a free press. The Soviet Union had none of these in any meaningful sense. That distinction should be kept clear. But the first words of any political movement should be taken seriously. The early promises are usually humane. They speak of fairness, dignity, affordability, workers, tenants, food, and peace. Only later does society discover how much power must be handed to the state to make those promises real. The Democratic Socialists of America describes itself as the largest socialist organization in the United States and says working people should run “both the economy and society democratically” to meet human needs rather than profits. To many Americans, that may sound compassionate. To those of us trained in Marxist-Leninist doctrine, it also sounds familiar. I am not a political scientist or a specialist in party-building. I am simply a person who, because of my age, studied under the communists and...