Central Asia Charts New Course as Russian Aviation Falters

Sanctions against Russia may intensify if U.S. President Donald Trump escalates pressure on the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin. But even without additional measures, several sectors of Russia’s economy are already buckling under strain. Among the most vulnerable is civil aviation, now grappling with “fleet cannibalization”, a practice born of scarcity and isolation. In this context, alarmist claims from Russian aviation analysts that Central Asian airlines might soon replace Russian carriers not only on international routes but potentially within Russia itself are being reassessed. So, what is actually happening and why? Squeezing Russia Out One of the most overlooked aviation developments of 2024 was the announcement at the Central Asian Aviation Summit in Astana that regional countries were forming their own civil aviation regulatory body. As Amir Akhmetov, senior advisor to the director of the Aviation Administration of Kazakhstan, put it: “In the changing geopolitical environment of the republics of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, together with like-minded countries, they are creating their own regional civil aviation organization, the Eurasian Civil Aviation Conference (EACAC).” This initiative, first proposed by Astana in 2023, includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Mongolia. Although initially scheduled for 2025, the first EACAC meeting took place in Almaty in November 2024. Russian observers have taken note. The publication Versiya, which had predicted Russia’s marginalization in the Central Asian aviation market as early as 2016, commented on the development in stark terms: “It is hard not to notice that this is truly a momentous event in the field of civil aviation regulation within the EAEU member states, aimed precisely at pushing Russia out of the process… which, after the formation of the announced structure, will de facto exist and be managed under direct Anglo-American influence.” However alarmist the tone, the underlying concern is not unfounded. Russia’s aviation sector is increasingly isolated and dependent. By December 2024, it was confirmed that a new aircraft maintenance hub would be built in Aktau, one of Kazakhstan’s four major aviation centers. The project, spearheaded by Turkish Technic, YDA, and ASFAT, will serve civil and military aircraft from Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. According to then-Minister of Transport Marat Karabayev, “The center will serve 411 civil aircraft... As a result of the project, the airport’s cargo handling capacity will increase to 200,000 tons per year, with an annual turnover of 520 billion tenge ($996.7 million).” Aviation in Central Asia: A Regional Snapshot In Kazakhstan, liberalization and competition have allowed the civil aviation sector to flourish. National carrier Air Astana operates hubs in Almaty and Astana and is widely considered among the best airlines in the post-Soviet space. Its low-cost subsidiary, FlyArystan, has grown rapidly, fueled by a strong Airbus fleet, now over 60 aircraft, with new A320 and A321 deliveries annually. Private airline SCAT flies across the former USSR and Asia, while Qazaq Air, now rebranded as Vietjet Qazaqstan, entered into a strategic partnership in 2025 with Vietnam’s Sovico Group, owner...