Japarov, Tashiyev, and the Kompromat War

Kyrgyzstan has seen three revolutions since 2005. It has been a politically active country since becoming independent in late 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed. But since the current President Sadyr Japarov came to power after the 2020 revolution, he and his long-time friend and security chief, Kamchybek Tashiyev, have stifled expressions of public discontent. For the last five years, Kyrgyzstan’s political scene has been uncharacteristically quiet. But events since Japarov sacked Tashiyev on February 10 have raised speculation that a fierce political battle between the two powerful men now looms ahead for the country. Japarov has already fired the first shots. Accusations of corruption against Tashiyev and his family have led to arrests. But two can play at that game, and the former security likely has compromising information about Japarov and his family. “You Can't Cook Two Sheep's Heads in One Cauldron” The February 10 announcement of Tashiyev’s firing was arguably Kyrgyzstan’s biggest political shock since the October 2020 revolution that saw Japarov go from a prison cell to simultaneously occupying the posts of prime minister and president within ten days. The two had been friends for decades, they started their political careers about the same time, and both quickly rose through the ranks of government during the presidency of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who was ousted in the 2010 revolution. The day after he was confirmed as president, Japarov appointed Tashiyev to be head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB). The day before Tashiyev was sacked, a group of 75 prominent figures, who included former government officials, released an open letter to President Japarov and the speaker of parliament calling for an early presidential election. The group pointed to the discrepancy over whether Japarov was serving the six-year presidential term mandated in the 2010 constitution or the five-year term stipulated in the constitution adopted in April 2021, three months after the snap presidential election that Japarov won. It quickly became apparent that Tashiyev’s dismissal and the letter were connected. The same day Tashiyev was fired, so were several top GKNB officials, with the sacking of officials said to be close to Tashiyev continuing for days. Japarov’s spokesman said it was necessary to “prevent a split in society.” However, Japarov has avoided any detailed explanation of the reasons for the many changes and repeatedly described Tashiyev as a friend. Member of Parliament Elvira Surabaldiyeva, in an April 24 interview with a Kazakh journalist, said Tashiyev was dismissed because he was planning a coup and had been preparing it for a long time. “The president is going through a very difficult time right now, because his longtime friend tried to remove him from office,” Surabaldiyeva said, and added, “There's a saying: ‘You can't cook two sheep's heads in one cauldron.’ This seems to be exactly the case.” Kompromat Tashiyev was out of Kyrgyzstan when the news broke that he had been fired. He briefly returned on February 13, leaving again on February 17. He returned on March 19 and the...