Uzbekistan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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OpenAI Registers as Taxpayer in Uzbekistan

U.S.-based artificial intelligence company OpenAI has officially registered as a taxpayer in Uzbekistan. According to the State Tax Committee, OpenAI was added to the country's special platform for foreign electronic service providers on April 8, becoming the 67th international internet company to register in Uzbekistan. OpenAI is best known for developing ChatGPT, the AI chatbot that gained rapid global popularity following its launch in November 2022. Within five days, the platform surpassed one million users. In March 2023, OpenAI released GPT-4, a more advanced version of the model capable of understanding both text and images. Since November 2023, ChatGPT has been accessible to users in Uzbekistan. The move comes amid heightened efforts by Uzbek authorities to enforce tax compliance among foreign digital platforms operating in the country. On March 4, the National Agency for Perspective Projects and the State Tax Committee issued a joint warning to Chinese e-commerce platform Temu, which had failed to register as a taxpayer. As a result, access to Temu has been blocked in Uzbekistan since March 20. Although Temu is legally registered in Uzbekistan, the Tax Committee reported on March 18 that the platform still owes 46 billion UZS (approximately $3.5 million) in unpaid taxes. First Deputy Chairman of the Tax Committee Mubin Mirzayev stated that Temu must settle its debt before it can resume operations in the country. According to analyst Timurmalik Elmuradov, Temu faces two options: either open a local branch or register as a value-added tax (VAT) payer. The platform’s monthly sales in Uzbekistan are estimated at $8-9 million. Other foreign platforms have also come under scrutiny. Russian online retailer Wildberries, which initially received a similar warning, has since paid 52 billion UZS (about $4 million) in taxes, according to Mirzayev. The government says it is committed to ensuring that all e-commerce companies operating in Uzbekistan comply with local tax regulations.

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Gas Crunch in Uzbekistan: Industry Falters as Demand Surges

In the first two months of 2025, Uzbekistan's natural gas production declined by 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024, continuing a troubling trend that has seen output fall from 61.59 billion cubic meters in 2018 to 44.59 billion cubic meters in 2024. This persistent decrease raises concerns about the nation’s energy security and economic stability. Once among Central Asia’s energy success stories, Uzbekistan became a net importer of natural gas in 2023, a symbolic turning point for a country whose identity was long intertwined with hydrocarbon abundance. The extent of the strain was demonstrated in December 2024, when gas stations around the country were forced to close during a cold snap as heating systems across the country kicked into action. This led drivers of methane-powered cars, which are common in the country given that it costs about $15 to fill the tank as opposed to $40-50 in a gasoline-powered vehicle, into a desperate hunt for places to fill up. Kilometer-long queues formed, and drivers ferociously competed to be first to the pump. Such scenes have become a familiar sight in the Uzbek winter as gas production has fallen. “Uzbekistan’s gas production is already quite mature,” Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy told The Times of Central Asia. “The existing fields are entering a phase of decline. The reserve-to-production ratio was around 18 years based on 2020 data, and the situation is unlikely to be much better now.” Put simply, the country is running out of easy gas. Despite repeated efforts to locate new reserves, particularly in the under-explored Ustyurt region, exploration has so far failed to yield significant breakthroughs. Even if discoveries are made, the timeline to bring new fields online would mean little impact before 2030, at best. In parallel, demand for gas has remained stubbornly high. Corbeau noted that “the country’s energy mix and electricity generation are very dependent on natural gas. And Uzbekistan is one of the countries with the lowest wholesale gas prices in the world.” Those prices have long distorted both domestic consumption and investor interest, keeping demand high while choking off potential upstream capital. [caption id="attachment_30630" align="aligncenter" width="1209"] Image: Wholesale Gas Price Survey 2024 Edition. International Gas Union. https://www.datocms-assets.com/[/caption] This sentiment is echoed by Irina Mironova, Senior Energy Analyst at the New Energy Advancement Hub. “Domestic production is declining faster than consumption,” she said, “and domestic gas pricing is not market-based. It remains below the price of imported gas, which undermines the investment appeal of upstream projects for foreign investors.” The government has undertaken some measures to control demand over the past year, raising the tariffs for electricity and gas by 52.5% and 71% respectively, hitting consumers in the pocket in an attempt to alter the wasteful use of scant resources. On the supply side, the government has declared a bold ambition to raise production to 62 billion cubic meters annually under its Uzbekistan–2030 development strategy, but observers remain skeptical. “They’ve tried to facilitate exploration, especially in the...

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Unpacking the Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Central Asia

Trade analysts across Central Asia generally agree that the immediate impact of the United States' tariff policy on the export dynamics of their nations will likely be minimal, as observed in past experiences, except for Kazakhstan. However, there is a palpable concern regarding potential unforeseen consequences arising from a broader global trade conflict. Notably, the timing of the Trump administration's announcement regarding global tariffs on imports coincides with a period when Central Asian countries are actively working to enhance their regional trade relationships. This new tariff policy raises significant doubts about the authenticity of recent U.S. efforts to promote increased trade and investment in the region. The mixed signals coming from Washington may lead Central Asian leaders to re-evaluate their current trade partnerships, especially as they consider the benefits of strengthening ties with China and Russia against the attractiveness of expanding commerce with the United States. Similarly, the European Union may find an opportunity to improve its position, while India could leverage the Chabahar route (a multi-modal transportation route connecting India, Iran, Afghanistan, and potentially Central Asia and Europe). It is worth noting that the market is primarily situated in Asia, and this alternative could have adverse long-term effects on the United States. Kazakhstan, acknowledged as the United States’ largest trading partner in Central Asia, is poised to face significant repercussions from introducing new tariffs set at 27%. In 2024, trade relations between the U.S. and Kazakhstan reached an impressive total of $3.4 billion, with $1.1 billion in U.S. exports to Kazakhstan and $2.3 billion in imports from Kazakhstan to the U.S. However, a statement from the Kazakh Trade Ministry indicates that exports to the U.S. primarily consist of crude oil, uranium, silver, and other raw materials, all exempt from these tariffs. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported only $95.2 million worth of goods, which will now incur surcharges – a relatively modest figure compared to the country’s overall foreign trade turnover of $141.4 billion. Trade analysts suggest that Kazakhstan has little cause for concern, viewing this situation more as a psychological impact than a serious economic threat. Resource-driven Central Asian economies, such as Kazakhstan, may even find enhanced opportunities in the expanding Asian market. Trade dynamics in Central Asia reveal a complex landscape, especially concerning the United States. In 2024, Uzbekistan managed to export a modest $42.4 million worth of goods to the US, a small fraction considering its total foreign trade turnover, which reached an impressive $66 billion for that year. This stark contrast highlights the limited engagement of Uzbekistan in the American market. With its total trade turnover of $16 billion in 2024, Kyrgyzstan similarly struggled with exports to the US, which amounted to merely $16.7 million. This reflects a broader trend where Central Asian economies exhibit low volume exports to the US, suggesting significant barriers or challenges in establishing a foothold in this lucrative market. Tajikistan's economic performance presented an even more sobering picture. Recording a total trade turnover of $8.9 billion, the country achieved only $4.6 million...

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Uzbekistan to Introduce Special Tax System for High Earners

Uzbekistan is preparing to implement a new tax regime targeting the country’s highest earners, marking a significant shift in its approach to income taxation. The plan was announced by Mubin Mirzayev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Tax Committee, during a press conference on April 1. According to Mirzayev, more than 18 million of Uzbekistan’s 38 million residents currently earn income and pay taxes. “We have developed special tax rules for individuals with the highest incomes,” he said. “A comprehensive database will be established to prevent income concealment or misreporting.” The new system, which will take approximately a year to fully develop, will be electronic and designed to track both domestic and international income. “If a resident of Uzbekistan earns income abroad, they will also be required to pay taxes on it here,” Mirzayev stated. For non-residents, the system will consider taxes already paid in other jurisdictions to prevent double taxation. Currently, most Central Asian countries apply a flat income tax rate regardless of earnings. Uzbekistan’s plan signals a departure from that model, aligning more closely with progressive tax policies seen in other parts of the world. Mirzayev noted that the proposal echoes ideas once suggested by U.S. President Donald Trump, who advocated for tailored tax rules for high-income individuals to enhance fairness. The reform is part of broader government efforts to strengthen tax collection and promote greater equity in the system. Officials emphasize that the overarching goal is to ensure that all citizens, particularly high earners, contribute their fair share.

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Uzbekistan’s Foreign Debt Climbs to $64.1 Billion in 2024

Uzbekistan’s total external debt rose to $64.1 billion in 2024, accounting for 55.7% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to a new report from the Central Bank on the balance of payments, international investment position, and external debt. This marks an increase from 51.9% at the end of 2023. The country’s external debt includes both public and private liabilities, though many private-sector entities, particularly in banking and industry, are partially or wholly state-owned. The government controls approximately 65% of the banking sector and holds stakes in major enterprises such as UzAuto Motors and Uzbekneftegaz. These companies, along with state-owned banks like the National Bank of Uzbekistan (NBU) and Uzpromstroybank, have collectively issued billions in debt over recent years. Corporate (or private sector) external debt rose by $6.6 billion to $30.2 billion, equivalent to 26.2% of GDP. Government debt increased by $4.2 billion, reaching $33.9 billion, or 29.5% of GDP. Since 2016, Uzbekistan’s external debt has expanded 4.4 times, from $14.7 billion to $64.1 billion. Corporate debt has nearly quadrupled during that period, while government debt has grown by a factor of 5.2. Although the growth rate of public external debt has decelerated in recent years, corporate debt, primarily borrowed by state-owned banks and companies, continues to rise sharply. According to projections from the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Uzbekistan’s public debt is expected to reach $45.1 billion by the end of 2025, representing 36.7% of projected GDP. By the end of 2024, public debt is estimated to total $39.7 billion.

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U.S. Tech Giant Honeywell Expands Operations in Uzbekistan

Honeywell, a global leader in integrated technology solutions, has expanded its footprint in Uzbekistan by establishing a new legal entity, Honeywell Industrial Automation LLC. The initiative aims to support the digital transformation and automation of key industrial sectors in Uzbekistan and reflects a broader commitment to strengthening U.S.-Uzbek commercial ties. The official launch was celebrated on March 25 at a reception hosted by U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan Jonathan Henick at his residence in Tashkent. The event was attended by Uzbekistan’s Minister of Energy, Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov. Ambassador Henick reiterated the U.S. Embassy’s strong support for Honeywell’s initiatives, stating he looked forward to "the continued growth and success of American businesses in Uzbekistan." Honeywell emphasized its dedication to advancing Uzbekistan’s digital and energy strategies. The company has long-standing partnerships with both government and private sectors, especially in oil and gas, petrochemicals, mining, and metallurgy. As part of its expansion, Honeywell announced plans to establish a Global Engineering Center (GEC) in Tashkent. The new center will serve as a regional hub for advanced engineering solutions, while also fostering local talent and innovation. Earlier, Honeywell representatives held talks with the leadership of Uzbekneftegaz JSC to discuss the integration of cutting-edge technologies into Uzbekistan’s oil and gas sector.