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Regional Ecological Summit

Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit 2026: What It Is and Why It Matters

Kazakhstan’s Regional Ecological Summit 2026 in Astana on April 22-24 is aiming to turn Central Asia’s environmental strain into a regional political agenda. Organized in partnership with the United Nations, the summit is built around the theme, “Shared Vision for a Resilient Future.” Its stated purpose is to bring together governments, international organizations, lenders, businesses, researchers, and civil society to push for joint and practical responses to climate and ecological pressures across the region. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev first proposed hosting a regional climate summit in Kazakhstan under UN auspices during his 2023 speech at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly. By 2026, that idea had broadened into a wider environmental summit covering climate transition, adaptation, food security, natural resource management, air pollution, waste, finance, and environmental skills. The official key thematic directions show that this is no longer a narrowly framed climate conference. It is being presented as a broader Central Asian platform for ecological cooperation. In Central Asia, ecological stress now shapes core state concerns, from farming and energy to public health and cross-border cooperation. That gives the Astana summit a broader role than a standard environment conference. That shift reflects real regional pressures. Central Asia faces chronic water stress, glacier retreat, desertification, air pollution, and growing strain on ecosystems. The summit’s organizers say the meeting is meant to produce joint solutions rather than another round of abstract pledges. The UN in Kazakhstan says the summit is expected to advance shared regional responses and identify green financing needs, while a second UN page states that one planned outcome is a Joint Declaration by the heads of state of Central Asia, alongside a 2026-2030 Programme of Action developed with the United Nations. Tokayev’s own language explains the summit’s pitch. On August 5, 2025, speaking at the Third United Nations Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries in Awaza, Turkmenistan, he said, “Many developing countries without access to the sea are facing water scarcity, glacier melt, desertification, and other extreme weather events. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated regional efforts and strong international support. At the same time, I believe that measures to combat climate change must remain balanced and inclusive, and respond to the legitimate development needs of countries. To strengthen our joint efforts in addressing climate change, I invite you to the Regional Ecological Summit, which will be held in Astana in partnership with the United Nations.” The wording shows how Kazakhstan wants to frame the event. Central Asia’s environmental problems cross borders, but the response, in Tokayev’s view, must also accommodate growth, infrastructure, and development. That is why the summit is being presented not just as a climate gathering, but as a forum linking ecological policy, investment, technology, and state planning. The EXPO component is part of that design. Government and investment-promotion pages say the parallel exhibition will focus on green technologies, ESG tools, and practical climate solutions, linking diplomacy to project finance and implementation. The summit’s speaker list underlines its international reach. The official RES 2026 page includes...

Antalya Diplomacy Forum

Central Asia Came to Antalya With a Clearer Voice and a Wider Agenda

The Antalya Diplomacy Forum, from April 17 to 19, brought together heads of state, foreign ministers, and senior officials at a tense moment in international politics. The official theme, “Mapping Tomorrow, Managing Uncertainties,” reflected the backdrop: war in the Middle East, pressure on trade, and growing doubts about the strength of international institutions. Central Asia did not dominate the gathering, but the region was visible across the program and in the meetings around it. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was the highest-profile regional figure in attendance, while Kyrgyzstan sent Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubaev, Turkmenistan sent Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, and Tajikistan sent Deputy Foreign Minister Farrukh Sharifzoda. Uzbekistan was also active through Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov in meetings held during the forum dates. The strongest Central Asian intervention came from Tokayev. Speaking at a panel session, he said the United Nations remains indispensable, but also made clear that its present structure is failing to keep up with current crises. “We must honestly acknowledge that the Security Council is the central element in the reform of the United Nations,” he said. He also warned that many key negotiations now take place outside the UN system, in separate capitals and closed rooms, rather than through the institution that was built for that purpose. Tokayev framed the problem in practical terms rather than abstract ones. He said global leaders must approach peace and security “with a strong sense of responsibility,” adding that “we must act more responsibly and exercise restraint.” Tokayev also said Kazakhstan calls on all countries involved in the Iran conflict to cease hostilities while keeping the focus on the core issue of nuclear proliferation. His language matched the line Astana has tried to hold for years: avoid escalation, preserve room for dialogue, and keep diplomatic channels open. Tokayev went further when he turned to the role of what he called “middle powers,” naming Kazakhstan and Türkiye among the states that, in his view, show a high degree of responsibility in both diplomacy and practice. He said it would “not be an exaggeration to say that today middle powers often demonstrate a greater degree of responsibility than major powers represented in the Security Council, which, regrettably, often obstruct the resolution of key global issues.” That was one of the sharper lines delivered at the summit. It also showed how Kazakhstan now wants to place itself in the world: not as a passive actor caught between larger powers, but as a state that can help steady an increasingly unstable system. Türkiye was central to that framing. At the start of his remarks, Tokayev praised President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s role in the region and said Kazakhstan was looking forward to Erdoğan’s state visit next month. That also reflects a broader trend of closer coordination between Kazakhstan and Türkiye, including in the Trans-Caspian transport route (Middle Corridor) and shifting Caspian dynamics. Uzbekistan approached the summit in Antalya differently. Tashkent did not have a presidential intervention on the main stage, but it used the gathering for...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team will be covering the arrest of 19 anti-China protesters in Kazakhstan, the announcement of the date for Kazakhstan's upcoming parliamentary elections, major diplomatic moves unfolding between Central Asia and the United States in Washington, and some very quiet diplomacy taking place in Florida between presidents' daughters. We'll also be looking at Uzbek workers finally being granted the right to strike, major expansions at two of Central Asia's biggest gas projects, a mystery disease spreading through the region that has already claimed more than 90,000 animal lives, and the continued expansion of the regional railway network, which could finally see Kyrgyzstan better connected to its largest trading partner. Special guest, Almaty-based journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Chris Rickleton.

Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

International Tourism

Welcome to Turkmenistan? President Says He Wants International Tourists to Visit

Turkmenistan, one of the world’s most closed countries, is hosting an international tourism conference this week. The “TurkmenTravel – 2026” event in the capital of Ashgabat aims to attract foreign visitors to a country that is generally difficult to visit because of tight controls, including required letters of invitation and the need to have licensed guides. While some travel agencies aim to address those challenges for tourists, Turkmenistan remains a little-understood country and lags far behind regional countries such as neighboring Uzbekistan in terms of infrastructure and accessibility for travelers. But the three-day tourism conference, which ends on Thursday, could be a tentative sign that Turkmenistan wants to open up, selectively, and within the limits of a tightly controlled system that restricts the internet and other sources of information for its citizens. [caption id="attachment_13432" align="aligncenter" width="1920"] Ashgabat Arch of Neutrality; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Across Central Asia, governments increasingly treat tourism as both an economic sector and a tool of international image-building. Turkmenistan now appears to want some of that attention, but on its own carefully managed terms. The event was a priority for Turkmenistan’s government. President Serdar Berdimuhamedov delivered a message of encouragement to the participants and said tourism was growing in the Central Asian country whose stated policy is one of neutrality in international affairs. Statistics on tourism growth and other metrics are hard to come by in Turkmenistan, however. That makes the message from Ashgabat especially striking: a state known less for openness than for control is publicly promoting tourism growth while offering little transparent data to show how far that growth has actually come. [caption id="attachment_47157" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Kunya-Urgench- The ancient Nejameddin Kubra and Sultan Ali Mausoleums; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] “Permanently neutral, Turkmenistan places great importance on expanding international cooperation in this area,” the president said. He noted collaboration with the U.N. World Tourism Organization and other international institutions. For years, Turkmenistan’s image abroad has rested less on mass tourism than on mystery: the white-marble capital, vast desert landscapes, major Silk Road sites, and a political system that has often kept outsiders at a distance. In Ashgabat, that mystery is part of the experience from the start. White marble towers rise in regimented lines, fountains splash into largely empty spaces, and broad avenues can feel strangely still. The city is visually extravagant but tightly controlled, with an atmosphere that can leave visitors unsure whether they are in a showcase capital, a stage set, or both. Berdimuhamedov listed some of Turkmenistan’s attractions: Ancient Merv, Nisa, and Kunya-Urgench, the Bereketli Garagum and Gaplaňgyr nature reserves, desert ecosystems, and the elaborate architecture in Ashgabat. [caption id="attachment_27727" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Ashgabat - A row of marble towers in the Berzengi district; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Cordula Wohlmuther, regional director for Europe of U.N. Tourism, was one of the listed speakers at the tourism conference. The agenda for the event included a session titled “How to promote Central Asian culture on the world stage.” One company, Asia Odyssey Travel, portrays Turkmenistan...

Economic Growth

Why Strong Economic Growth in Central Asia Masks Underlying Risks

Central Asian countries are significantly outperforming the global average in GDP growth, largely due to differing economic models across the region. However, rapid expansion does not remove deep structural vulnerabilities. As early as March, data showed that the combined economies of Central Asian countries grew by nearly 7% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The World Bank estimates regional growth at 6.2%, while the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) places it at 6.6%. These calculations include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan is excluded due to limited statistical transparency. By comparison, growth rates in advanced economies are much lower. The EDB expects around 1.6% growth in the U.S. and approximately 1.1% in the eurozone in 2026, while China’s economy is projected to expand by about 4.6%. Nevertheless, experts note that the region’s economic outlook remains complicated by high inflation, income inequality, and continued dependence on external factors. Investment activity and domestic demand have been the key drivers of growth, according to the EDB. Kazakhstan recorded its highest growth in 13 years (6.5%), with industry leading the expansion: mining grew by 9.4% and manufacturing by 6.4%. In 2026, the non-resource sector is expected to play a greater role. Kyrgyzstan has led the region in GDP growth for the third consecutive year: GDP grew by 11.1% in 2025 and by 9% in January 2026. In Uzbekistan, GDP increased by 7.7% in 2025 (up from 6.7% a year earlier), supported by investment, trade, services, and construction. Tajikistan’s GDP rose by 8.4% in 2025, matching the previous year’s performance. Growth continues to be driven by expanding industrial production and strong domestic demand. Early 2026 data suggest this momentum is holding. Uzbekistan’s Record In April, the World Bank highlighted Uzbekistan’s resilience to external challenges and strong growth dynamics. According to its updated report, the country’s 2025 GDP growth was revised upward by 1.5 percentage points to 7.7%. The outlook is 6.4% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027. Key drivers include high global gold prices, investment inflows, expanded lending, and ongoing structural reforms. Rising household incomes have also played an important role, supported by remittances, which increased by 37% last year to reach $18.9 billion. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan ranked among the fastest-growing economies in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, alongside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The region as a whole is experiencing its highest growth rates in 14 years. At the same time, analysts point to persistent structural constraints, including a large public sector and the dominance of state-owned enterprises, which hinder private sector development. External risks, including geopolitical instability and potential disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies, remain significant. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP exceeded €133 billion, compared to approximately €56 billion nine years earlier. Over the same period, GDP per capita rose from about €1,750 to around €3,220, nearly doubling average income levels. Investment in fixed capital increased by more than 15% year-on-year in 2025, while export value grew by over 33%. Persistently high global gold prices played a major role: export...