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Opinion: As Kazakhstan-China Trade Booms, Tokayev and XI Strengthen Relations

On June 16th, Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping and the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Astana at the second China-Central Asia Summit. The six countries signed the 'Treaty of Permanent Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation', which reinforced their strategic cooperation in multiple areas, particularly in trade and investment. Aggregate China-Central Asia trade is up 10.4% this year. Kazakhstan is a pivotal player in transcontinental Eurasian trade and integration. Its geographic location, multimodal transport networks, and strategic partnerships with neighboring countries, particularly China, position Kazakhstan as Central Asia’s primary overland gateway to Europe and West Asia. It’s no surprise, therefore, that President Xi Jinping visited Astana – his sixth trip to Kazakhstan and sixteenth to Central Asia. Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has reclaimed its historic role as a nation of merchants and intermediaries, revitalizing trade routes like the middle corridor and logistics hubs such as Khorgos Gateway—a dry port facilitating container transshipment between Chinese and Kazakh railways en route to Europe. These are just two examples of infrastructure projects in Kazakhstan; there are many more in development. In Astana, Presidents Tokayev and Xi underscored the importance of further socio-economic progress arising from enhanced economic linkages. Tokayev reiterated Kazakhstan’s support for mutually beneficial business opportunities, emphasizing the principle of national sovereignty and independence. Recent trade figures reflect the robust economic ties in infrastructure and connectivity. Kazakhstan’s construction sector, driven by investments in transport, are poised to increase by 6.8% in 2025, according to Kazakhstani economists. Sino-Central Asian trade, according to China’s General Administration of Customs, reached $94.8 billion in 2024, with Kazakhstan accounting for 46% of that total—$43.8 billion—making it China’s largest partner in the region. This contrasts with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan's combined total of $28.1 billion, and Kyrgyzstan’s $22.7 billion, driven largely by re-exports and gold. Kazakhstan remains the anchor economy in Central Asia – the strategic hinge between China and the West – as confirmed not only by the volumes of freight entering and leaving Kazakhstan, but by its upstream and downstream economic benefits, causing a multiplier effect across the country. Over 80% of land cargo from China to Europe passes through Kazakhstan. What factors have led to this development? A key factor has been global demand for raw materials, but that’s only part of the story. What stands out as the principal driver of Kazakhstan’s success in boosting trade over the past 20 years was its commitment soon after independence in 1991 to invest in transport and logistics, while creating a regulatory and legal framework in parallel to facilitate operability. In other words, Kazakhstan’s success is no accident. It was the country in Central Asia to embrace economic liberalization not as ideology, but as a pragmatic approach to address the inefficiencies of a centralized command economy. This visionary approach facilitated economic liberalization, including getting rid of oppressive centralized planning and embracing private capital and deregulation without relinquishing sovereignty. Kazakhstan also pushed ahead in developing a banking sector that over time provided a...

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EDB Forecasts Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Accelerate to 5.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, up from an estimated 4.8% in 2024, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The forecast suggests this growth rate will be sustained through 2026 and 2027. “We expect Kazakhstan's economic growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2025 after 4.8% in 2024, with these rates remaining unchanged in 2026-2027,” said Aigul Berdigulova, Senior Analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, during the presentation of the bank’s macroeconomic forecast. She emphasized that government initiatives to boost investment, particularly through the national holding company Baiterek, will be pivotal. Funding volumes for the economy are expected to reach KZT 8 trillion (approximately $15.2 billion), equivalent to about 6% of GDP. “This measure will help unlock investment potential in manufacturing, transport, and construction,” Berdigulova said. According to the EDB, these investment-backed policies are expected to counterbalance external shocks. Additional growth drivers include expansion at the Tengiz oil field, projected to contribute 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth in 2025, and ongoing fiscal stimulus, regional development efforts, and infrastructure projects. Kazakhstan ranks fourth among the EDB’s member states in terms of projected GDP growth for 2025, following Kyrgyzstan (10.3%), Tajikistan (8.4%), and Uzbekistan (6.5%). It is on par with Armenia (5.5%) and ahead of Belarus (3%) and Russia (2%). Inflation Set to Rise in 2025 Despite the optimistic growth forecast, inflationary pressures are expected to intensify. The EDB projects Kazakhstan’s inflation rate will reach 11.9% in 2025, its highest among the bank’s member countries. “Inflation in Kazakhstan is rising this year due to the weakening of the tenge observed at the end of 2024,” Berdigulova explained. She also pointed to continued increases in utility tariffs and inflation expectations amid discussions of tax and budget reforms, including a planned VAT hike. Inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2026 before declining to around 8.5% by 2027. For comparison, Armenia is forecast to have the lowest inflation among EDB members at just 3.1%. According to preliminary data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy, the country’s GDP grew by 6% year-on-year in the January-May 2025 period. However, not all institutions are as optimistic. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently revised its 2025 forecast for Kazakhstan’s GDP downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%.

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Kazakhstan Emerges as Key Overland Gateway for China-Europe Trade

Trade between China and Central Asia reached $95 billion in 2024, with Kazakhstan accounting for nearly half of that total, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin announced at the Second Meeting of the Central Asia-China Business Council in Astana on June 17. According to Zhumangarin, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and China hit a record $44 billion, and both countries aim to double this volume in the coming years. He emphasized Central Asia’s strategic role as a key transit hub for China, sitting at the crossroads of major trade and transport corridors connecting East and West, as well as North and South. Currently, over 80% of overland cargo traffic from China to Europe passes through Kazakhstan. Middle Corridor Sees Sharp Growth In 2024, cargo volume along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, increased by 60%, reaching 4.5 million tons. Plans are in place to double that figure to 10 million tons by 2030. The TITR links China and Europe through Central Asia, bypassing Russian territory. Kazakhstan’s national railway operator, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), reported that railway freight between China and Kazakhstan totaled 14.2 million tons in the first five months of 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year. A significant step in logistics development came on June 10 with the opening of the Zhetysu container terminal in Almaty. Jointly developed by Kazakhstan and China, the terminal is expected to serve as a key hub for the consolidation and distribution of Chinese goods transported by rail and road. It is poised to become a vital node along the Middle Corridor. Digital Trade Expands Zhumangarin also highlighted e-commerce as a key area of bilateral cooperation. Kazakhstan has already established national pavilions on major Chinese platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com. He confirmed Kazakhstan’s interest in participating in China’s initiative to launch a pilot zone for Silk Road e-commerce, aimed at facilitating digital trade across the region.

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Digitizing Central Asia: Interview with Ainura Umaeva, Thought Leader in Communications and Media

This week The Times of Central Asia will be attending the CAMCA Regional Forum, which this year is being held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The CAMCA network is a collection of professionals and policymakers dedicated to developing Eurasia by sharing ideas, knowledge and inspiration; its name stands for Central Asia, Mongolia, the Caucasus and Afghanistan. Ahead of the Forum, The Times of Central Asia spoke with Ainura Umaeva, the Owner and CEO of TIDAM Communications Agency in Almaty -- and a leader in strategic communications and advisory -- about what the CAMCA program means for the Eurasian communications and digital industries, and what the future might hold for women doing business in Central Asia. TCA: What condition do you feel the digital and information spaces are currently in – in Kazakhstan, and elsewhere in the Eurasia region? AU: Kazakhstan has made remarkable progress in digitalizing public services and fintech. For many of us, it’s now second nature to access government or commercial services instantly through a smartphone. This level of convenience has become so embedded in our daily lives that we often take it for granted. However, when we look deeper, we notice a different reality. Despite this visible digital infrastructure, there’s a significant lack of digital literacy — especially in the private sector. Many businesses are still not leveraging the full potential of digital technologies, including AI, data analytics, or automation. While we appear digitally advanced on the surface, in practice the digital transformation often remains quite superficial. The real challenge now is to deepen that transformation — to build not only user-facing digital tools but also internal digital capacity and data culture. In what areas do you think CAMCA initiatives can help them improve? One of the greatest strengths of CAMCA is its ability to bridge regional fragmentation. Although the CAMCA region is often perceived by the outside world as a cohesive bloc, internally we remain deeply segmented — informationally, economically, and culturally. Many countries in the region lack awareness of one another’s realities, opportunities, and success stories. Several years ago, I worked with a client on a cross-regional study, and it became clear to me how little we actually know about our neighbors. This informational disconnect leads to missed opportunities for collaboration and shared growth. Initiatives like the CAMCA Forum are essential because they foster not just dialogue, but a sense of common regional identity. Paradoxically, it often takes an external initiative to help us better recognize how much we share. Being born and raised in Kazakhstan, with roots in the Caucasus, I constantly reflect on the contrast between the two regions. Despite its political and linguistic diversity, the Caucasus is often perceived — and perceives itself — as more cohesive than Central Asia. In our region, we are still discovering our collective identity. You’re speaking in a session dedicated to women’s networks. How will women’s authority in Eurasian business look in 10 years compared to now? In our work with the She Business Women Community — a...

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Citizens of Central Asia Face New Entry Restrictions To Russia and the U.S.

Citizens of Central Asian countries are encountering a wave of new travel restrictions from two major global powers, Russia and the United States. In recent weeks, Moscow and Washington have both introduced or expanded measures that complicate entry for citizens of the region, raising concerns about migration rights, bilateral relations, and regional security. Russia Tightens Border Rules Starting June 30, 2025, citizens from visa-free countries, including Kazakhstan, will be required to obtain a special QR code to enter Russia. The code must be secured in advance via the Gosuslugi RuID app, at least 72 hours before travel, or four hours in emergency cases. The app is not yet operational, but Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has confirmed its planned launch on the same date. While Russia maintains visa-free arrangements with over 30 countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Israel, and all CIS members, these new digital entry requirements apply broadly. Exceptions include citizens of countries already subject to visa regimes, diplomats, and citizens of Belarus, a Union State member. Additionally, as of January 1, 2025, the allowable visa-free stay in Russia for citizens of these countries has been reduced from 90 days per half-year to 90 days per calendar year. Many Kazakhstani travelers fear that the new rules will result in long queues and technical delays at border crossings. More broadly, critics point out that the move undermines the spirit of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), whose member states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Belarus, and Russia, are supposed to enjoy facilitated mobility. Response to the Crocus City Hall Attack The changes come in the wake of the March 22, 2024 terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, which left at least 145 dead and more than 500 injured. The suspects in the attack were reportedly citizens of Tajikistan, sparking a wave of anti-migrant sentiment in Russia. According to Temur Umarov, a Berlin-based political analyst at the Carnegie Center, Russian authorities are prioritizing security over economic necessity. "Russia is doing everything possible to reduce the number of migrants from Central Asia," he said, noting the vital role these workers play in several Russian industries. Regional Backlash Public figures and officials in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan have expressed frustration over Russia’s tightened migration policy. In Kyrgyzstan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs lodged a formal protest with the Russian ambassador following a widely publicized incident in which Kyrgyz citizens were forcibly removed from a Moscow bathhouse. Member of Parliament Zhana Akayev strongly condemned the treatment of Kyrgyz nationals: “Partners and allies do not behave like this. They are humiliating our citizens,” he said. Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin criticized Russia’s approach as inhumane and called for migration policies that respect mutual interests and fundamental rights. In Uzbekistan, several bloggers have gone further, calling for entry bans on Russian public figures, including Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, for alleged chauvinistic remarks. Kazakhstan has taken a more measured stance. Aibek Smadiyarov, a spokesman for the Kazakh Foreign Ministry, emphasized that the QR code system does not constitute a...

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The Next Steps for Central Asian Finance: Interview with Azerbaijani Fintech Leader Dr. Fuad Karimov at CAMCA

This week The Times of Central Asia will be attending the CAMCA Regional Forum, which this year is being held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. The CAMCA network is a collection of professionals and policymakers dedicated to sharing ideas, knowledge and inspiration to accelerate the development of the Eurasia region; its name stands for Central Asia, Mongolia, the Caucasus and Afghanistan. Ahead of the Forum, The Times of Central Asia spoke with Dr. Fuad Karimov, Regional Managing Director of the payment software company Xsolla, about what the CAMCA program means for the Eurasian finance industry, and how Azerbaijan can work more closely with Central Asia. TCA: What condition do you feel fintech spaces are currently in, particularly in the Eurasia region? FK: Fintech [financial technology] across the CAMCA region is accelerating. Countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have made significant progress in regulation and adoption. In Azerbaijan, key drivers include state-led digitalization and innovative companies like PashaPay and Birbank, which are transforming consumer payment behavior. Cross-border transfers, mobile banking, and contactless solutions are increasingly common across the region. In what areas do you think CAMCA initiatives can help them improve? CAMCA can create platforms to harmonize financial regulations, facilitate cross-border fintech testing, and promote knowledge exchange. It can also help reduce friction in currency conversion. Regional collaboration can attract investors from the West and Asia. Priorities should include cybersecurity, financial literacy, AI in finance, and coordinated exploration of digital currency pilots like e-Manat, e-Tenge, and e-Soum. You're moderating a session on harnessing fintech in CAMCA markets. What topics do you expect to touch upon, and who are you looking forward to hearing from? We’ll cover the rise of digital national currencies (CBDCs), crypto regulation, exchange rate risk, and the impact of AI on lending, compliance, and fraud prevention. I’m especially looking forward to hearing from fintech leaders in the CAMCA region — each representing diverse policy environments and innovation models. Where do you see opportunities for Central Asia to work more closely with Azerbaijan? There’s strong potential in co-developing cross-border payment systems, digital identity frameworks, and startup accelerators. Azerbaijan can share experience in building public-private fintech partnerships, while Central Asia offers scale and growing demand. Aligning exchange rate mechanisms, regulatory approaches, and education systems will enhance regional integration. The CAMCA platform is an ideal space to turn these synergies into actionable policy and investment opportunities.