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Historic Khujand Summit Paves Way for Peace in the Ferghana Valley

The presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan gathered in the northern Tajik city of Khujand on March 31 for meeting that is decades overdue. Among the agreements the three signed were one fixing the border where their three countries meet. Prior to Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s arrival, Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov and Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon exchanged ratified documents of the border agreement between the two countries. Rahmon and Japarov, via video link, also launched the Datka-Sughd power transmission line, a major step in the CASA-1000 project that aims for both their countries to supply electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan. These agreements might not seem monumental, but they represent a major departure from the troubled past the three governments have had in their border areas. Trouble in Paradise The three countries share the Ferghana Valley, an area roughly the size of Costa Rica that is home to more than 20% of Central Asia’s population. Since the Central Asian states became independent in late 1991, the Ferghana Valley has also been the region’s hotbed of tension. The Ferghana Valley is the cradle of ancient Central Asian civilization. Some living there today say it was the location of the Garden of Eden, and it is not difficult to see why. The Valley is abundant in fruits and vegetables and has extensive arable and grazing land. It is surrounded by mountains to the north, east, and south, and the rivers that flow from these mountains supply ample water. Since independence, the Ferghana Valley has been the most dangerous place in all of Central Asia. The arbitrary borders Soviet mapmakers drew to divide Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan left many problems for the three after they became independent states. Agreement on where Kyrgyz-Uzbek border is came only in late 2022, and Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan just signed the agreement on delimitation of their border on March 12. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan The roots of Islam lie deep in the Ferghana Valley. There were already calls for Shari’a law in Uzbekistan’s section of the valley just months after Uzbekistan declared its independence. The most serious security threat to Central Asia to date originated in the Ferghana Valley in 1999 and 2000. In early August 1999, a group of some 20 armed militants from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) appeared in southern Kyrgyzstan, captured a village, and took the villagers and subsequent government negotiators hostage. The IMU leaders were from the eastern Uzbek city of Namangan. They were connected to the protests in Uzbekistan in late 1991 and later joined the Islamic opposition in neighboring Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war. The peace accord that ended the civil war called for opposition fighters to either join the Tajik armed forces or disarm. There was no longer any need for the opposition’s foreign fighters, and the final phase of disarmament was underway by the summer of 1999. In mid-August, the Kyrgyz government paid a ransom for the hostages’ release and the departure of the IMU militants, but this provided...

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Opinion: In Central Asia, the EU Defies Its “Geopolitical Dwarf” Label

As the United States and Russia reportedly aim to create a new global security architecture, other major actors in the international arena are working to improve their positions in the redefined world order. Often underestimated in terms of its geopolitical influence, the European Union has actively focused its attention on the post-Soviet space, particularly the strategically important Central Asian region. The EU, despite Russia’s and the United States' attempts to undermine its role in the settlement of the Ukraine War and to portray it as a “geopolitical dwarf”, is seeking to increase its presence in global affairs. In Central Asia, the 27-nation bloc is often viewed as a key actor that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan can rely on to balance China’s growing dominance, as well as their security and dependence on Moscow. The EU's desire to strengthen cooperation with Central Asia can be seen as Brussels’ attempt to reduce Russia's influence in the region. Indeed, bogged down in Ukraine, Moscow is slowly but surely being pushed out of Central Asia – a region that has traditionally been within the Kremlin’s geopolitical orbit. As a result, China has managed to significantly increase its economic presence in all five Central Asian nations. The EU is now attempting to do the same. The recent visit of the European Commissioner for International Partnerships Jozef Síkela to Central Asia, as well as the upcoming EU-Central Asia summit scheduled for April 3-4, 2025 in Samarkand, clearly indicates the intensifying geopolitical competition between the EU and China over the region. One of Síkela’s major goals was to expand the scope of the EU's investment strategy, Global Gateway, in Central Asia. The project, launched in 2021, is often viewed as the EU’s version of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As part of its strategy to increase its economic presence in Central Asia, the European Union seems to have four priorities: the development of transport infrastructure (particularly the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor), cooperation in raw materials, digital connectivity, and the development of the water resources, energy, and climate sectors. The problem for Brussels is that China, due to its proximity to Central Asia and the lack of bureaucratic procedures, is ahead of the EU in most, if not all of these areas. Beijing has had 12 years to strengthen economic ties with the region through the BRI. As a result, in 2024, China’s overall turnover with Central Asia reached $94.8 billion, nearly double the EU's trade volume with the region in 2022, which stood at $47 billion. Last year, the world’s second-largest economy replaced Russia as Kazakhstan's biggest trade partner. In neighboring Uzbekistan, it remains the top trading partner, while in Tajikistan, over the past 18 years, China has become the major investor in the landlocked nation’s economy. The same applies to Tajikistan and China’s neighbor Kyrgyzstan. The European Union, however, is now intensifying its efforts to position itself as a major foreign power operating in Central Asia. According to...

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Power Shifts in Central Asia: The Unpredictable Path of Leadership

European Union Commissioner for International Partnerships Josef Sikela has concluded his tour of Central Asia, a visit conducted against the backdrop of global geopolitical turbulence. Unlike previous engagements, where European officials often criticized the region’s leadership for a lack of democratic progress, Sikela refrained from making demands on local governments. Historically, Europe has accused Central Asian states of authoritarianism and the entrenchment of long-serving leaders. However, the idea that power is uniquely permanent in the region is increasingly questioned. Critics point to Western examples, such as Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure as Germany’s chancellor, and alleged electoral manipulation within the EU, such as in Romania, where elections were annulled after an undesired candidate’s victory. Meanwhile, in Central Asia, even presidents once considered “eternal” have eventually left office, sometimes peacefully, sometimes under turbulent conditions. Kyrgyzstan: The Unpredictable Outlier Kyrgyzstan is often described as a "democratic exception" within Central Asia, yet its history is marked by political instability and frequent leadership changes, arguably more so than in many of the world’s most conflict-prone regions. The country’s first president, Askar Akayev, held power from 1990 to 2005. Though re-elected three times, his rule ended in March 2005 when protests erupted over parliamentary election results that heavily favored pro-government candidates. Demonstrators stormed the Government House in Bishkek, prompting Akayev to flee. Reports, though unverified, claimed he was smuggled out wrapped in a carpet. Following Akayev’s ouster, Kurmanbek Bakiyev took power, but his rule ended in 2010 after violent unrest. His downfall was allegedly facilitated by Kazakhstan’s intelligence services, and he later found political asylum in Belarus under President Alexander Lukashenko. Since Bakiyev’s departure, Kyrgyzstan has continued to experience political turbulence. Presidents Almazbek Atambayev (2010-2017) and Sooronbai Jeenbekov (2017-2020) both left office under pressure. Atambayev’s tenure saw a diplomatic fallout with Kazakhstan, while Jeenbekov resigned in 2020 amid protests over parliamentary elections. His successor, Sadyr Japarov, remains in office, but whether he will complete his term is an open question. Uzbekistan: Reform Within Limits Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s first post-Soviet leader, ruled for over 26 years before his death in 2016. While he maintained a strictly centralized government, his tenure was also marked by violent crackdowns, most notably the Andijan uprising in 2005, which resulted in a Western diplomatic fallout. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has introduced some reforms, loosening restrictions on civil liberties and the economy. However, the fundamental structure of state control remains intact, with opposition movements still tightly monitored. Kazakhstan: From Nazarbayev to Tokayev Kazakhstan’s transition from Nursultan Nazarbayev to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is often described as managed succession rather than a genuine power shift. Nazarbayev, who led Kazakhstan for nearly three decades, officially stepped down in 2019, yet retained significant influence until the January 2022 unrest, which forced him to relinquish much of his remaining power. These protests, initially sparked by fuel price hikes, rapidly escalated into anti-government riots. While official accounts describe the unrest as an attempted coup orchestrated by figures within Nazarbayev’s inner circle, critics suggest Tokayev used the crisis to consolidate power....

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Opinion: What the Loss of RFE/RL Would Mean for Central Asia

The decision to terminate the federal grant agreement funding for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) is a crushing blow for hundreds of millions of people. These people know their governments are not telling them the full truth about what is happening in their countries or in the world outside. The objective information provided by RFE/RL has been important to people such as these. Perhaps as important, since the end of the Cold War, was the platform RFE/RL provides, whenever possible, for people in these countries to explain their views to the outside world. I know, because I worked at RFE/RL for 25 years covering Central Asia. RFE/RL was founded in 1950, and I didn’t show up there until 1997. I can only speak about what I saw and heard when I was an RFE/RL employee. My understanding of my tasks as an RFE/RL employee was that we were supposed to keep close track of what was happening in Central Asia, cover as many of the important topics of the region as possible, and make objective and accurate information on these topics available to the people in Central Asia. During Tajikistan’s 1992-1997 civil war, for example, RFE/RL’s Tajik service, Radio Ozodi, was the most trusted source of information for the people of Tajikistan. During the Coronavirus pandemic, the Turkmen government would not even allow the word COVID to be spoken and denied there were any cases of the virus in the country, leaving RFE/RL’s Turkmen service, Azatlyk, as one of the only sources of information for Turkmenistan’s people about the illness. I lived in Central Asia before joining RFE/RL, so I had some idea of what was important to people there. Calling for respect for fundamental rights is a big part of RFE/RL’s work. Read the constitutions of any Central Asian country and you will see enshrined there the right to freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, the right to freely receive or disseminate information, and much more. In practice, these rights are not always observed in Central Asia. In such a situations RFE/RL’s Central Asian services are a voice for those who, with good reason, are afraid to speak out publicly, or more importantly, for those who did speak out and are punished for that. At RFE/RL we looked for “impact stories,” testimony from people of the region about unfulfilled government promises, abuses, or state mismanagement that were hurting communities and individuals. Central Asian government officials are among the most faithful RFE/RL listeners, and often RFE/RL reports that raised social issues led officials to rectify the situation. Ramshackle buildings or schools were suddenly repaired, electricity or running water became accessible to city districts and rural areas, sufficient food became available to communities. The pleas of average citizens too often fell on deaf ears in government halls, but the criticism of an international organization such as RFE/RL, which was broadcasting to the entire country and Central Asian region, was too embarrassing for officials to ignore. This made RFE/RL unpopular with Central...

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Opinion: How Central Asia Has Strengthened Ties with the West Since 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the relationship between Russia and Central Asia. Russia’s decision to invade a neighboring country, and the devastation and destruction that followed, has forced Central Asia to reconsider its relationship with the Russian Federation. Russia is no longer seen as an “invincible superpower,” meaning it cannot be relied on to protect other members of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization). In addition, the U.S. and European countries have levied heavy sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Russia has attempted to evade these sanctions by conducting business with third parties, but the international community has warned several organizations and countries not to partake in these relations. Otherwise, should these businesses and countries opt to help Russia, then the international community has said that it will impose stiff penalties on these Russian intermediaries as well. Given these events, the Central Asian states have now been actively pursuing new relationships beyond Russia to bolster national, economic, and energy security within the region. During this process, China has attempted to assert itself as Central Asia’s new ally. Like Russia, China already has a significant trade relationship with Central Asia. In addition, China is Central Asia’s largest gas consumer, meaning the Chinese have attempted to force Central Asia into an economic and energy partnership. Despite this relationship, the countries of Central Asia have opted not to increase their reliance on China. Instead, recent developments have led them to improve their relations with the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. But how has the West strengthened its relationship with Central Asia since 2022? Take, for example, the United States. When Russia’s invasion began in February 2022, the then U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan to discuss the war. During their meeting, Secretary Blinken stated that the United States supports Central Asia’s “sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” He also said that the United States will continue to strengthen its relationship with the region. Since this meeting, Blinken has met with foreign ministers from Central Asia on several occasions in 2023 and 2024, where they further discussed how Central Asia can “develop the strongest possible capacities for their own security, their growing economic prosperity, and the strength and resilience of their societies.” Furthermore, U.S. President Joe Biden met with senior officials from Central Asia. During his meeting with his Central Asian counterparts in September 2023, Biden said that the United States would help “invest in and develop Central Asia’s energy infrastructure.” The United States also established a new business initiative with Central Asia, where the United States has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to the region. Then, during the United States-Central Asia Trade Investment Framework Council in June 2024, the United States and the Central Asian states discussed new investment opportunities and how they could diversify trade. These discussions were well received, and the United States called for future engagements between it and Central...

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Securing Central Asia’s Future: EBRD’s Regional Head on the Fight for Water Sustainability

Every fourth inhabitant of Central Asia, home to more than 83 million people, does not have regular access to safe drinking water. The region spans more than four million square kilometers, and over 15% of its territory is covered by the Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts, as well as waterless places such as the Ustyurt Plateau (similar in size to the United Kingdom), which stretches across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The extreme heat common to Central Asia in summer makes water a precious resource. To make matters worse, irresponsible human activity, particularly wasteful water use for irrigation, has led to one of the most devastating ecological catastrophes globally. The Aral Sea, where up to 60,000 tonnes of fish were caught annually only 30 years ago, has practically ceased to exist. Most of Central Asia’s freshwater intake relies on glacial melts affected by global warming. The World Resources Institute forecast in its 2023 Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas that an additional one billion people globally will live with extremely high water stress by 2050. This will disrupt economies and agricultural production. Most Central Asian countries will be severely affected. While the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) cannot reverse the global warming process or tackle its impacts alone, it can certainly contribute to climate change mitigation efforts, securing better water access, and promoting its rational use. There is frequently no water supply or water treatment infrastructure in rural areas of the regions where it invests. Most municipal water supply and treatment utilities across Central Asia have not seen much investment or refurbishment over the last 30 years. The EBRD has been working to address this issue, and many of its investment projects are already impacting people’s lives. [caption id="attachment_29070" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Image: EBRD[/caption] In Kazakhstan, the Bank’s work with Vodnye Resoursy Marketing (VRM)/Shymkent water company, the country’s only privately owned municipal water utility, perfectly illustrates why the EBRD is such a strong advocate of private-sector involvement in the provision of municipal services. Over many years, we have enjoyed excellent cooperation with this company, which has translated into high-quality water supply services for more than 1.2 million residents of Shymkent. It has become a benchmark for the region for its effective and efficient operations. Thanks to VRM’s efforts, with 1.2 million residents, Shymkent became the first city in Kazakhstan to install a water meter for every consumer. User habits have changed: personal daily water consumption has decreased from 456 liters 27 years ago to 150 liters. The water savings achieved during this period will enable Shymkent to meet the needs of its population for another 20 years. The EBRD started working with VRM in 2009 and has financed five projects totaling €60 million. With the Bank’s financial assistance, VRM has introduced an automated network monitoring system, improved power supply at twelve pumping stations, constructed eleven electrical substations, and built a European Union standards-compliant biogas facility (the only one of its kind in Central Asia), which helps VRM to meet all of its thermal...