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Opinion: From Xi’an to Astana – Elevating China–Central Asia Cooperation to a New Height

As summer awakens the vibrant landscapes of Kazakhstan, with lilac blossoms aglow and the Ishim River meandering through the capital, Astana is once again at the center of regional diplomacy. From June 16 to 18, Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Kazakhstan to attend the Second China–Central Asia Summit — an event of both symbolic weight and strategic substance. This year’s summit marks more than a diplomatic gathering — it signifies the maturing of a young but increasingly impactful multilateral framework born from centuries-old ties. From the ancient Silk Road to today’s modern infrastructure corridors, the five Central Asian nations and China are deepening a relationship rooted in trust, driven by mutual benefit, and destined to shape the region’s collective future. Ancient Friendship, Strategic Renewal More than 2,100 years ago, Chinese envoy Zhang Qian opened the first pathway to Central Asia, laying the groundwork for millennia of exchange. In 2013, standing in Kazakhstan, President Xi unveiled the Silk Road Economic Belt, the founding vision of what would become the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), reviving the spirit of the ancient Silk Road for a new era. Since then, cooperation between China and Central Asia has grown from historical affinity into a full-spectrum partnership. Over the past decade, this partnership has reached “three completions”: the full establishment of comprehensive strategic partnerships between China and all five Central Asian countries, full coverage of BRI cooperation documents, and full alignment with the concept of a shared future for humanity. These milestones demonstrate not just diplomatic intent but a shared strategic outlook that has withstood global uncertainties. As Xi noted, the decision to deepen China–Central Asia cooperation is not a product of convenience, but a generational choice made by leaders with long-term vision, responding to the will of their peoples and the imperatives of regional stability. Tangible Results: A Shared Path to Modernization Since the launch of the China–Central Asia mechanism in 2020, progress has accelerated. The elevation of this platform to the leaders’ level in 2023 during the Xi’an Summit underscored its growing relevance. From the Xi’an Declaration to the establishment of a permanent secretariat, institutional foundations are now firmly in place. More importantly, the mechanism is delivering real results. Trade between China and the five Central Asian states reached a record $94.8 billion in 2024, a $5.4 billion increase from the previous year. New cooperation structures in transport, agriculture, customs, and emergency management are enabling efficient multilateral coordination. A flagship example is the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, now under active construction, marking a milestone in physical connectivity. This long-anticipated project, personally championed by the three heads of state, will reshape regional logistics and unlock new trade routes across Eurasia. Beyond rail, a web of cooperation is forming: the high-functioning Khorgos Gateway and the newly launched Kazakhstan Xi’an Terminal, increased Caspian Sea corridor traffic, and regularized freight trains between China and Central Asia. These are not mere infrastructure projects — they are lifelines of mutual development. Kazakhstan, in particular, is actively reinforcing its role as...

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Opinion: The Engine of Turkic Integration – Why TURKPA Is No Longer “Just Talk”

On June 12, in Astana, the 14th Plenary Session of the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic States (TURKPA) was held under the theme: TURKTIME: The Role of Parliamentary Diplomacy. TURKPA has existed since 2008, but it is only now that the multifaceted activities of Turkic states are drawing close attention from external observers, first and foremost, from Russia. This is unsurprising since the driving forces behind Turkic initiatives are often Ankara and Astana. While Turkey promotes its national interests, Kazakhstan appears to play both of its powerful neighbors, Russia and China, against each other. Moscow, at times, does not hide its ire, hinting that its influence over Astana is diminishing in favor of Beijing. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev skillfully engages with China, securing benefits such as investments and a visa-free regime, which gives Kazakhstani carriers an advantage over their Russian and regional competitors. TURKPA was officially founded a year before its 'sister' organization, the Organization of Turkic States, was established. The first proposal to create TURKPA was made by Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the 8th Summit of Turkic Heads of States in November 2006. Interestingly, TURKPA is also listed on the website of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), although it includes Turkey, a country outside the CIS and a geopolitical rival to Russia, which dominates the organization. Equally interesting is the composition of TURKPA and its governance structure. Its full members comprise Turkey, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Kyrgyzstan, whilst Hungary and Turkmenistan are observers. The day-to-day operations of the organization are managed by a Secretariat headquartered in Baku, and the Secretary General of TURKPA is always an Azerbaijani citizen. Strategic direction is provided through annual plenary sessions, which are presided over by the Speaker of Parliament of the country currently holding the Chair. “The chairmanship rotates annually in alphabetical order according to the Latin alphabet,” explained Kazakh MP Aigul Kuspan. This brings us to a curious contradiction that nobody focuses much upon. It is believed that Azerbaijan is Turkey’s proxy state in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. At the same time, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, to a lesser or greater degree, pursue a Russian policy in the region. As explained, in recent years Kazakhstan has also gravitated toward promoting Chinese interests. Thus, in practice, Turkey leads TURKPA through its own presidency and via Azerbaijan for two out of every four years, while Russia/China exert influence through Kazakh and Kyrgyz speakers in the other two. In theory, this tug-of-war could have rendered both TURKPA and the OTS, where geopolitical tensions are similar, meaningless forums for routine summits. That was true until recently; however, now we observe a growing geopolitical subjectivity in Central Asia and a reorientation toward its own interests. Therefore, OTS summits and TURKPA plenaries have become more purposeful. This is demonstrated by the words of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who met with delegates of the 14th Plenary Session of the Parliamentary Assembly of Turkic States. “Last year, Kazakhstan chaired the Organization of Turkic States. Under the motto 'TURKTIME', we implemented...

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Opinion: China–Central Asia Partnership – Seeking Opportunity in a World of Uncertainty

Leaders from China and the five Central Asian countries will gather in Astana on Monday, two years after their inaugural summit in the Chinese city of Xi’an. However, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has often noted, “Our world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century." The geopolitical landscape is markedly different from that of their first meeting, with both China and the Central Asian nations now facing a world of increasing uncertainty. In April, foreign ministers from China and the Central Asian countries convened in Almaty, Kazakhstan, where Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed concern over the rising tide of protectionism and unilateralism. He criticized the United States for launching a tariff war against more than 180 countries, saying it undermines international trade and destabilizes the global economy. Wang reaffirmed China’s commitment to openness. “China will consistently promote a high degree of openness, share opportunities with the world, and take responsibility for upholding international norms,” he said. Wang’s remarks were echoed by the Central Asian representatives, who voiced strong support for China’s vision of building a “community with a shared future” and pledged to deepen cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu, said that China and Central Asian nations have set clear guidelines for collaboration in trade, energy, transport and logistics, education, and science. The ties between China and Central Asia stretch back to the ancient Silk Road camel caravans that carried not only goods but also cultures. At the first China-Central Asia summit in Xi’an, Chinese President Xi said: “Back in 2013, I put forward the initiative of jointly building a Silk Road Economic Belt during my first visit to Central Asia as Chinese president.” Like an echo of millennia past, the ancient Silk Road now finds its modern expression through connectivity and cooperation. In May, the first tourist train linking the Chinese city of Xi’an and Almaty, the largest city in Kazakhstan, made its inaugural journey. Also in May, Kyrgyzstan’s State Civil Aviation Agency reached an agreement with Chinese aviation authorities to open a new air route to the Chinese city of Kashgar. As part of the Air Silk Road initiative, this will become the second direct air link between Central Asia and Western China. [caption id="attachment_32911" align="aligncenter" width="1179"] The first tourist train between Xi'an and Almaty; image: CGTN[/caption] This is in addition to a key milestone in the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway project. In April, construction began on a 12-kilometer tunnel in Kyrgyzstan’s Jalal-Abad region. At the groundbreaking ceremony, Kyrgyz Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Bakyt Torobayev, stated: “This project is not only of infrastructural importance. It paves the way for improved quality of life, economic growth, and stronger ties between regions and peoples.” [caption id="attachment_32913" align="aligncenter" width="1179"] China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway; image: CGTN[/caption] Beyond infrastructure, Kyrgyzstan is working to integrate with China’s banking payment system. A significant step was taken during a recent meeting in Beijing, where the finance ministers of both countries agreed to establish financial infrastructure for cross-border settlements...

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Opinion: Strengthening the Silk Bonds — India’s Renewed Push Towards Central Asia

The velvet-draped tables of New Delhi’s 4th India-Central Asia Dialogue convened under the stewardship of External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar on June 6, 2025, radiated congeniality, with history and strategy converging. This high-level engagement, attended by foreign ministers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, marked more than a diplomatic ritual — it signaled India's deepening resolve to recalibrate its strategic posture in a region too long shaped by other powers. Yet beneath pledges of shared civilizational futures and energy corridors, an uncomfortable truth lingered as India remains a guest, not a player, in Central Asia’s great power theatre. Further, India’s internal socio-political landscape presents notable challenges that inadvertently shape its foreign policy credibility, particularly in the eyes of Central Asian nations. Persistent communal tensions — most visibly manifested in the Hindu-Muslim divide, the controversial demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, and the politically charged construction of the Ram Mandir — have deepened perceptions of religious polarization. Such domestic developments, while largely internal, resonate beyond India’s borders, especially in the Muslim-majority Central Asian republics, raising concerns about inclusivity and pluralism in India’s governance model. Simultaneously, India’s strained relations with key neighbors — Pakistan, and China, and increasingly volatile dynamics with Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka — have reinforced a regional image of discord and inconsistency. These internal and regional complexities contribute to a trust deficit, making Central Asian countries cautious in placing long-term strategic confidence in India. For New Delhi to emerge as a dependable partner in the region, addressing internal fissures and presenting a coherent, inclusive national vision is as vital as economic or diplomatic outreach. Central Asia sits at the center of ancient trade routes and modern geopolitical competition. For India, its importance is twofold: the region is a bridge to Eurasia and a repository of energy resources critical to India’s growing economy. But India’s historical connectivity to Central Asia — through the Silk Road, shared cultural legacies, and spiritual exchanges — has, for decades, been overshadowed by geographic and political barriers, notably the lack of direct overland access due to Pakistan. Recognizing these constraints, the dialogue showcased a strategic pivot. India reaffirmed its commitment to enhancing regional connectivity through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port in Iran. While geopolitical instability in Iran and Afghanistan poses challenges, India's emphasis on multimodal routes demonstrates pragmatic flexibility. In an era defined by supply chain resilience and multipolar geopolitics, connectivity is no longer just an infrastructure question — it is a currency of influence. The dialogue also addressed the evolving regional security architecture. India’s proposal for counter-terrorism cooperation, capacity building, and intelligence sharing was timely and necessary. However, the dialogue echoed with familiar refrains, viz. civilizational bonds, shared destiny, and multipolar cooperation. Yet beneath the diplomatic choreography lies a haunting question. Can India transcend its historical role as Central Asia’s cultural cousin to become its strategic confidant? History whispers caution. The Burden of History: From Silk Roads to Shadow Roads For centuries, the Silk Road...

Victory Day Diplomacy: Central Asia’s Balancing Act and Putin’s Diminished Spotlight

Every year, Moscow’s Red Square transforms into a stage for one of Russia's most celebrated traditions: Victory Day, an event which marks the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II. Yet, as tanks roll through the cobblestone streets and military bands echo under the Kremlin walls, the occasion feels more heavily laden with geopolitical undertones than historical reminiscence these days. Against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts and shifting alliances, the presence of Central Asian leaders at this year’s event speaks to the region’s delicate relationship with the Russian Federation. But the question remains: amidst the pomp and circumstance, is there much for Vladimir Putin to celebrate? Central Asia’s Careful Balancing Act The attendance of Central Asian leaders at the Victory Day parade is a striking show of diplomatic choreography. On the surface, their presence will underscore the shared historical legacy of the Soviet era, when the sacrifices of the Central Asian republics contributed to the Allied victory in the Second World War. However, a more pragmatic lens reveals a balancing act that defines the region’s foreign policy. The region finds itself at the crossroads of global powers vying for influence in Central Asia. While Moscow leans on historical ties and cultural commonalities to retain its sway, Beijing’s economic clout continues to reshape the region’s trade networks and infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, as the inaugural EU-Central Asia Summit attests to, the European Union is eager to expand its reach, whilst hungry for Rare Earth Elements in which the region is rich, the U.S. is waiting in the wings. For Central Asian leaders, participating in Victory Day celebrations signals a nod to Russia’s historic role but also keeps the door open for economic and security cooperation. Amidst the shifting architecture of global politics, their diplomatic strategy remains one of pragmatism, seeking benefits from multiple partners while avoiding any over-alignment. What Does Russia Gain from the Optics? The presence of 29 leaders from across the globe – including Chinese President Xi Jinping - offers Moscow valuable optics at a time when its international relationships face significant strain. Last year, only nine attended. Isolated by Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine and with much of the world’s media painting Russia as cut off from the global stage, the impression of a united front with Central Asia helps the Kremlin portray the opposite. Victory Day, therefore, becomes a geopolitical tool, with the attendance of Central Asian leaders enabling Putin to send a message of shared unity within Russia’s historical sphere of influence. It tells both domestic and international audiences that Moscow retains significant allies, reinforcing the image of resilience despite ongoing challenges. How Much Does Moscow Truly Celebrate? The Victory Day parade is an event that is watched by an estimated three-quarters of the Russian public, drumming up patriotism as the state seeks to become the custodian of collective memory. Behind the spectacle, however, signs of disquiet are proving hard to ignore. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and migration flows...

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Opinion – Central Asia’s Looming Water Crisis: A Ticking Time Bomb

When people think of Central Asia, they often picture vast deserts, ancient Silk Road cities, and oil pipelines stretching to distant markets. Yet the region’s most urgent and combustible resource is not buried underground — it flows above it. Water, or more precisely the lack of it, is rapidly becoming the defining fault line of Central Asia’s future. For decades, the five Central Asian republics have tiptoed around a growing water crisis. The two major rivers that sustain life in this arid region, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, are now so contested and depleted that what was once a technical issue has metastasized into a geopolitical threat. The region's major rivers, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya are under immense pressure, threatening agriculture, livelihoods, and regional stability. At the heart of the crisis is a tragic irony. The upstream countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, are rich in water but poor in energy and cash. They need to release water in winter to generate hydropower. Downstream nations, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, want water stored until the summer to irrigate vast cotton and wheat fields. The result? Mutual distrust, occasional diplomatic spats, and an accelerating race to dam, divert, and hoard water in a region already gasping under the weight of climate change. A Region Parched Central Asia annually utilizes over 60 billion cubic meters of water for irrigation from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. However, recent years have seen a decline in river flows, with the actual flow of the Syr Darya being 20–23% less than the norm. Further, the ghost of the Aral Sea — a once-thriving inland lake that has now shrunk by over 90% in its volume and 74 % in surface area — serves as a haunting reminder of the cost of mismanagement. The Soviet legacy of excessive irrigation has morphed into a post-Soviet scramble for control, where water is not just a tool of survival but a lever of power. This desiccation has transformed the region, leading to the emergence of the Aralkum Desert and causing severe ecological and health issues. Climate Change Intensifies the Crisis Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity in Central Asia. A recent study revealed that an extreme heatwave in March 2025, with temperatures soaring 5 to 10°C above pre-industrial levels, was significantly amplified by global warming. Such temperature surges accelerate glacier melt and increase evaporation rates, further reducing water availability. By some estimates, Central Asia could lose over 30% of its freshwater resources by 2050. Yet, rather than galvanize cooperation, this existential threat has sparked more competition. International efforts have largely fallen flat. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), the region’s main water cooperation body, is riddled with inefficiencies and lacks enforcement power. External actors like China and Russia have their own interests, often deepening the regional divide rather than healing it. Inefficient Water Management Inefficient agricultural practices remain one of the most profound and persistent contributors to water mismanagement across Central Asia. In...