Uzbekistan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Direct Flights

Etihad Flights to Uzbekistan Begin Daily as Almaty Service Moves to 2027

Etihad Airways has launched daily service between Abu Dhabi and Tashkent, adding Uzbekistan to its operated network. A direct service to Almaty that had been scheduled for March 2026 is now expected in 2027. Etihad's inaugural outbound flight departed Abu Dhabi on August 9 and arrived in Tashkent early on August 10. The return flight left later that morning, and the route is operated with an Airbus A320. Etihad senior vice president Jurriaan Pieter Stelder told The Times of Central Asia that the airline had studied Uzbekistan's aviation market for several years before entering it. He said the growth of local airlines and established business demand led Etihad to begin with a higher frequency than it might use in other new markets. Etihad expects the route to perform in line with its network, which recorded an average passenger load factor of 89.7% in the first two months of 2026. Stelder said the carrier expects to fill at least 140 of roughly 160 seats on each leg. The route is supported by a codeshare agreement with Uzbekistan Airways that took effect in May. Etihad customers can buy a single ticket through Tashkent to eight domestic destinations, while Uzbekistan Airways passengers can connect to Abu Dhabi on the Etihad service. The partnership allows Etihad to test demand for Samarkand through Uzbekistan Airways. “We know there is particularly strong demand for Samarkand,” Stelder said. He added that Etihad could eventually operate another route in Uzbekistan if the market grows. Commercial ties between Uzbekistan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have grown rapidly, including through civil aviation cooperation. In January 2025, the two governments set targets to increase bilateral trade by a factor of ten by 2030 and raise the bilateral investment portfolio to $50 billion. Etihad Chief Digital Officer Frank Meyer said the relationship already supports business travel, while tourism demand needs further development. He added that Etihad would hire local staff for airport operations and sales, while local contractors would handle ground services. Etihad already reaches Kazakhstan through a codeshare with Air Astana. The agreement allows customers to book Air Astana-operated connections through Almaty and Astana. Etihad announced plans for its own Almaty route in July 2025, with eight weekly flights scheduled from March 16, 2026. The launch did not take place, but Stelder said the carrier had not abandoned the destination. “We expect to start flying to Kazakhstan, specifically Almaty, sometime in 2027,” he said. “For now, we decided it was better to start with Tashkent.”

Growth Forecasts

Why Central Asia Growth Forecasts Differ So Sharply

How fast can Central Asia continue to grow? The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) give markedly different answers. The contrast is sharpest in Kyrgyzstan, where the EDB expects another year of double-digit growth, while the IMF sees a much more pronounced slowdown. Both institutions are looking at the same countries and have access to broadly the same set of macroeconomic data. Their forecasts, however, reflect different assessments of how much of Central Asia’s recent momentum can be sustained. The EDB expects strong investment to keep growth high, while the IMF is more cautious about how long the recent pace of expansion can continue. The EDB is itself a regional development institution. It was established by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006, with Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan later becoming shareholders. Uzbekistan joined the bank in 2025. The EDB is headquartered in Almaty. The comparison covers the four Central Asian states that are EDB members; Turkmenistan is not included. Its latest forecast for Central Asia is optimistic. In 2026, the EDB expects growth of 10.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% in Tajikistan, 7.9% in Uzbekistan, and 5.5% in Kazakhstan. The region’s economy as a whole is expected to grow by more than 6.5%, with its combined GDP exceeding $600 billion for the first time. The IMF gives lower figures. Its latest available country projections put 2026 growth at 4.6% for Kazakhstan, 6.8% for Uzbekistan, 6.1% for Kyrgyzstan, and 6.0% for Tajikistan. These projections were published at different times rather than as a single set of four country forecasts. The largest gap is in Kyrgyzstan, where the forecasts differ by 4.1 percentage points, but there are nevertheless modest percentage point gaps between the forecasts for Tajikistan (2.3), Uzbekistan (1.1), and Kazakhstan (0.9). These differences are large enough to raise the question: why the difference in expectations? Part of the answer lies in how the institutions assess the effect of a more uncertain global economy. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Its July update said the conflict in the Middle East was weighing particularly heavily on energy importers and warned that renewed conflict or financial-market disruption could weaken the outlook. For the four countries, this means different things. Kazakhstan exports oil and benefits from high prices, although it also depends on the condition of export routes and external demand. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan import a significant share of their fuel, while their economies are closely linked to migrant remittances. Uzbekistan has a larger domestic market and its own resource base. Kazakhstan illustrates the logic of the IMF forecast particularly well. Its GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025, one of its strongest performances in recent years. The Fund does not expect that surge to be repeated. Oil production is expected to stabilize after last year’s increase, with growth slowing to 4.6% in 2026, according to the IMF forecast. This does not mean that the Fund attributes everything to oil. Domestic demand remains strong,...

Space Technology

Uzbekistan’s AI Module Reaches Orbit Aboard Samarqand-2028 Satellite

A Chinese-built Earth observation satellite carrying artificial intelligence developed by Uzbek specialists was launched from a sea platform off China’s Shandong province on August 5. The Samarqand-2028 satellite was launched alongside Lampung-1, another Earth observation satellite from China’s STAR.VISION Aerospace. A livestream showed the rocket lifting off from the platform. STAR.VISION developed Samarqand-2028, while specialists from Uzbekistan’s national space agency, Uzbekcosmos, created its onboard AI module. Uzbekcosmos said this was the first time Uzbek specialists had participated in developing artificial intelligence for a satellite. Samarqand-2028 carries a hyperspectral sensor that records reflected light in 22 wavelength bands. A conventional color image records visible light in only three broad bands, while the additional bands can reveal details difficult to see with the human eye. Uzbekcosmos plans to use the images to create national maps of cotton and wheat cultivation and make initial assessments of air quality. As The Times of Central Asia reported on August 4, processing images onboard the satellite could reduce the amount of data transmitted to Earth and allow useful information to reach officials more quickly. Samarqand-2028 is separate from Uzbekistan’s first national scientific satellite, Mirzo Ulugbek. Seven Uzbek engineers studying at Kyushu Institute of Technology in Japan have begun developing the 6U satellite, which is scheduled for launch in 2028. The program is intended to train specialists and establish a domestic satellite engineering team. The next stage will be commissioning Samarqand-2028 and testing whether its AI module functions as intended in orbit. Its practical value will depend on whether Uzbek institutions can convert the imagery into useful information for agriculture and environmental monitoring.

Artificial Intelligence

Uzbekistan AI: Can Its Tech Boom Deliver an AI Economy?

Uzbekistan has spent the past several years positioning itself as a fast-growing Central Asian market for IT outsourcing. The government is now seeking to build an artificial intelligence economy on that export-oriented technology sector. While the state is investing in computing infrastructure and public-sector projects, Tashkent is looking to private technology companies to drive much of AI's commercial adoption. The strategy has produced visible activity, but whether it can develop into a sustainable AI economy remains an open question. Over the past five years, the government has expanded IT Park and its incentives, simplified rules for employing foreign specialists, and introduced tax breaks for resident companies. As digital service exports have grown, artificial intelligence has increasingly been positioned as the sector's next stage. According to IT Park, its resident companies were exporting services to more than 90 countries after the first seven months of 2025. North America accounted for 45% of exports, while the Asia-Pacific region and the Commonwealth of Independent States accounted for 26%, and the European Union and the United Kingdom for 24%. The figures show the sector's geographical reach. That export base gives Uzbekistan a plausible route into AI. Local companies can use existing engineering and outsourcing capacity to develop products for foreign clients, while private companies and software exports hold a prominent role in the government's commercial strategy. Uzbekistan has not yet built a fully fledged AI economy. Under targets set by an October 2025 presidential decree, at least 100 AI projects are to be implemented by the end of 2026, AI laboratories are to open at 15 universities, and more than $1 billion in foreign investment is to be attracted for AI infrastructure by 2030. These targets show the scale of the government's ambitions. Success will depend less on the number of approved programs than on whether they produce commercially viable AI products for international markets. Microsoft's Global AI Diffusion in Q1 2026 report estimated that 7.2% of Uzbekistan's working-age population used a generative AI product during the first quarter, compared with a global average of 17.8%. Uzbekistan was nevertheless among several Central Asian countries recording rapid growth from a relatively low base. Government policy is now shifting from creating favorable conditions toward supporting commercially oriented companies. In 2026, Uzbekistan launched the President AI Award, a national program combining startup acceleration with performance-based investment. Financing is linked to measurable business results and companies' ability to bring products to market. The government is also building a venture funding structure for technology startups. IT Park Ventures, established with the support of the Ministry of Digital Technologies, invests in technology startups, with artificial intelligence, fintech, DeepTech, and education technology among its priority sectors. The fund also helps portfolio companies enter international markets and connect with foreign investors. One Uzbek AI company active in this ecosystem is Repli AI. In March 2026, the startup secured $375,000 in cloud credits from Microsoft and Google to further develop its AI-powered sales and customer service platform. These were service credits rather than...

Space Technology

Uzbekistan-China Satellite Project Advances with AI Module

Uzbek engineers are developing an onboard artificial intelligence module for a new Earth observation satellite being built in partnership with a Chinese aerospace company. The satellite, named Samarqand-2028, is being developed under an agreement between Uzbekistan’s national space agency, Uzbekcosmos, and China’s STAR.VISION Aerospace. The Chinese company is developing the satellite itself, while Uzbek specialists are working on an onboard AI system that will help process the information it collects. The spacecraft will use hyperspectral imaging, which can detect features invisible to the human eye. Uzbekcosmos said the satellite could be used to monitor agriculture and the environment, as well as provide information for other parts of the economy. The project could include the creation of national maps showing where cotton and wheat are grown. It remains unclear when the satellite will be launched. It was expected to enter orbit in May 2026, but that target passed without a launch. In its latest update, Uzbekcosmos referred only to an upcoming launch and did not provide a revised date. Samarkand was selected to host the 2028 International Astronautical Congress in October 2025. It will be the first time the event, one of the world’s largest annual gatherings for the space industry, has been held in Central Asia. Hosting the congress will bring international attention to Uzbekistan’s space ambitions. Its longer-term impact, however, will depend on whether projects such as Samarqand-2028 help Uzbek specialists develop skills and build technology that can be used inside the country. The government has identified the space sector as one of the country's emerging high-technology priorities and is using the 2028 congress to showcase those ambitions. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Uzbekistan is also preparing to launch its first domestically developed scientific satellite and has begun a program to train the country’s first astronaut.

Central Asia Tourism

Central Asia Tourism Growth Outpaces Other Regions

Central Asia emerged as one of the world's fastest-growing tourism regions in 2025, with travel and tourism contributing $20.1 billion to the regional economy. According to an analysis based on World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) data, the sector's economic contribution grew by 17.7% during the year, the highest rate among the regions covered. By comparison, tourism GDP grew by 8.7% in Northeast Asia and 7.6% in Southeast Asia. The number of jobs supported by tourism grew by 9.5%, while spending by international visitors increased by 26.4%. Despite this rapid expansion, tourism remains a relatively small part of Central Asia's economy. It accounted for 4.3% of regional GDP in 2025, slightly below its pre-pandemic share of 4.5% in 2019. The slight fall in its share reflects the wider growth of the region's economies. The increase is being driven primarily by travel within Central Asia and from neighboring Russia. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan together accounted for 90% of the region's recorded inbound arrivals in 2025. Uzbekistan's official statistics, for example, show that visits to relatives accounted for most foreign visits recorded for tourism purposes during the first eight months of 2025. Comparisons between countries require caution because governments use different statistical methods, including whether they count border crossings or unique visitors. Uzbekistan remains the regional leader in terms of tourism's importance to the national economy. The sector accounted for 6% of GDP in 2025 and contributed $8.3 billion. Even there, however, tourism is considerably less economically important than in established destinations such as Spain, where WTTC forecast that it would account for almost 16% of GDP in 2025. Kazakhstan has the region's largest tourism economy in absolute terms, contributing $9.3 billion in 2025. Tourism nevertheless represented only 3.2% of the country's GDP, reflecting the larger role of industry and trade. The upward trend has continued into 2026. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan welcomed three million foreign travelers in the first quarter. Uzbekistan was the largest source, accounting for 1.1 million travelers. Kyrgyzstan and Russia were the next largest sources. Revenue generated by accommodation providers rose by 13.9% compared with the same period a year earlier. WTTC forecasts almost 13% growth in the sector's economic contribution in Kazakhstan in 2026. Tourism in Central Asia is expanding and generating substantially more revenue. However, visitors from neighboring countries and Russia still dominate the regional market, leaving longer-haul tourism to grow from a comparatively low base.