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C5+1

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio Plans Visit to Central Asia in 2026

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Wednesday his intention to visit all five Central Asian countries in 2026. Rubio made the statement during a meeting with the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The visit is part of a broader diplomatic initiative by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration to strengthen ties with the resource-rich region. Today, the presidents of the five Central Asian republics, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (Kazakhstan), Sadyr Japarov (Kyrgyzstan), Emomali Rahmon (Tajikistan), Serdar Berdimuhamedov (Turkmenistan), and Shavkat Mirziyoyev (Uzbekistan), are scheduled to meet with President Trump in Washington. The summit is expected to focus on cooperation in the extraction of rare earth elements and other natural resources in Central Asia. Rubio emphasized the alignment of U.S. and Central Asian interests in promoting responsible and sustainable development of the extractive sector. “You are seeking to use the resources that God has blessed your countries with to create responsible development and diversify your economies,” he said at a reception hosted by the State Department. “I personally intend to visit in the coming year. All five [countries], so I know it would probably be a week-long trip. So we’ve got to work on that and make that happen together.” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau stated that the invitation extended to Central Asian leaders is part of President Trump’s personal initiative to deepen engagement with the region. He highlighted broad opportunities for cooperation in business, investment, and strategic partnerships. Also speaking at the reception, Republican Senator James Risch said he intends to introduce legislation to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a Cold War-era law that restricts U.S. trade with non-market economies.

Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia @ The Times of Central Asia – New Episode Now Available

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. In the new episode, available from Sunday, November 2, the team will take a deep dive into what is happening with Central Asian-Azerbaijani relations. In recent years, ties between the countries of Central Asia and Azerbaijan have grown much stronger. There are many good reasons for this and for believing this partnership will continue to expand. Join us to learn more.

Gender Equality

UN Women and ACWA Power Partner to Advance Gender Equality in Uzbekistan

UN Women and ACWA Power Uzbekistan have signed a landmark agreement to promote women’s empowerment, marking the first-ever collaboration between a United Nations agency and a private company in Uzbekistan. As part of the 12-month partnership, ACWA Power will contribute $50,000 to support initiatives under UN Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE) programme. The project seeks to strengthen women’s participation in education and the labor market through gender equality training, leadership development, and the launch of a pilot Gender Equality Curriculum at Shirin College. It also includes capacity-building in gender-based violence prevention and the organization of a national Women’s Empowerment Forum. [caption id="attachment_38684" align="aligncenter" width="1206"] Image: ACWA Power[/caption] UN Women, which officially began operations in Uzbekistan in May 2025, will provide technical expertise and training to support national gender equality goals. ACWA Power, Uzbekistan’s largest investor in renewable energy, will oversee project implementation and funding. The partnership aligns with Uzbekistan’s ongoing national reform agenda, particularly the Strategy for Achieving Gender Equality 2030 and the National Programme for Increasing the Activity of Women in Economic, Political, and Social Life (2022-2026). These initiatives aim to create equal opportunities and broaden women's participation in education, public service, and the economy. [caption id="attachment_38685" align="aligncenter" width="1206"] Image: ACWA Power[/caption] “Partnering with UN Women allows us to advance concrete initiatives that promote safer workplaces, fairer opportunities, and stronger representation of women in Uzbekistan,” said Dr. Jon Zaidi, Country General Manager of ACWA Power Uzbekistan. “By investing in training, curricula, and leadership development, we aim to help embed practices that benefit institutions, companies, and communities alike.” “This partnership demonstrates how private sector engagement can accelerate progress on gender equality,” added Ceren Guven Gures, Head of the UN Women Central Asia Liaison Office and Representative of the UN Women Kazakhstan Country Office. “With ACWA Power’s support, we will expand opportunities for women and strengthen protections in education and the workplace.”

Diplomacy

Uzbekistan Introduces Visa-Free Travel for U.S. Citizens Starting January 2026

Uzbekistan will implement a visa-free regime for U.S. citizens beginning January 1, 2026, according to a presidential decree signed on November 3, 2025. The announcement was reported by UzA, the country’s official state news agency. Under the new policy, American citizens will be permitted to stay in Uzbekistan for up to 30 days without a visa from the date of entry. The measure aims to strengthen trade, economic, cultural, and humanitarian ties between the two countries, while also enhancing tourism. Since 2021, Uzbekistan has allowed visa-free entry for tourists aged 55 and older from the United States and several other nations, with a maximum stay of 30 days, according to Kun.uz. The expansion of this policy to include all U.S. citizens marks a major step in promoting bilateral travel and business engagement. The proposal to lift visa requirements for U.S. nationals was first introduced in May 2025 through a presidential decree focused on boosting foreign tourist inflows. The same document instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to initiate negotiations with Washington on easing visa conditions for Uzbek citizens traveling to the United States. In a related development, the Uzbek government recently extended visa-free entry to citizens of six more countries, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, following a Cabinet of Ministers decision issued on October 21.

U.S.-Central Asia Summit

Opinion: A Trump Visit to Central Asia Would Deliver Results and Anchor a Corridor Strategy

On November 6, Washington will host the C5+1 leaders’ summit, marking the format’s 10th anniversary and signaling a rare alignment of political attention and regional appetite for concrete outcomes. The date is confirmed by regional and U.S.-focused reporting, with Kazakhstan’s presidency and multiple outlets noting heads-of-state attendance in the U.S. capital. This timing is decisive. Russia’s bandwidth is constrained by the war in Ukraine, China’s trade weight in Central Asia has grown, and European demand for secure inputs and routes has intensified. All these developments together create a window where a visible United States presence can meaningfully alter the deal flow. A visit sequenced off the November C5+1 will attach U.S. political attention to minerals, corridors, and standards that regional governments already prioritize, confirming the conversion of the summit's symbolism into leverage. Washington already has the instruments but has lacked a synchronized presence. Development finance, export credit, and C5+1 working groups exist, yet announcements have too often outpaced commissioning. A targeted tour could unveil named offtakes, corridor slot guarantees, and training compacts. This would move from the dialogue to bankable packages if paired with financing envelopes, posted schedules, and third-party verification. Deals, dates, and delivery would make operational signals clear to partners and competitors alike. Strategic Rationale and Operating Concept The United States has three clear goals. These are to diversify critical minerals away from single-point dependency on China, de-risk trans-Eurasian routes that connect Asian manufacturing to European demand, and reinforce the sovereignty of the states in the region without pressuring them to choose sides in great-power competition over other issues. These imperatives already guide the national-security strategies of Central Asian governments, which implement them according to multi-vector doctrines. A presidential visit that treats minerals, corridors, and standards as a single package would show that Washington is prepared to move forward on the same problem set that the region has defined for itself. The ways to do that are through finance-first diplomacy and an end-to-end corridor approach, including the Caspian crossing. Finance-first diplomacy pairs every political announcement with insurance, offtake letters, and term sheets (short non-binding summaries of key commercial and legal terms for a proposed deal). These signal the intention to convert declarations into commissioning. An end-to-end corridor approach accepts the physical reality that Central Asian outputs move west through Central Asia, across the Caspian Sea, and across the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan functioning as the hinge that makes Europe reachable at scale. Each element of the “minerals–corridors–standards” triad reinforces the others when the whole is pursued as a single program. Reliable customs and traceability raise corridor credibility, which raises project bankability, which in turn attracts the private capital required for mineral processing. The instrumentalities for this already exist. The C5+1 framework can be tasked to track deliverables; the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Export-Import Bank (EXIM) can cover risk and long-term debt; aid and technical programs of the Department of State and Commerce can align standards, procurement integrity, and traceable supply chains; U.S. universities and labs can...