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IMF: Uzbekistan’s Foreign Debt to Decrease by 10% in 2029

According to a new report issued by the International Monetary Fund, in recent years and against uncertainties from the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, Uzbekistan's rapid growth in economy is set to continue in tandem with a significant decline in poverty. Despite a slowdown in the development of trade partners and the removal of the fiscal stimulus in 2023, a strong economic growth is predicted for this year and supported in the medium term, by the completion of budgetary consolidation, ongoing structural reforms, and continuing capital inflows, demonstrates the government’s commitment to promoting market-oriented reforms to further Uzbekistan’s economic development. Challenges still remain, however, in the large state footprint in the economy and last year’s expansionary fiscal policy, which the authorities determined to persevere in their reform efforts, must address to advance sustainable and inclusive growth. The monetary policy which has reduced inflation must continue until it reaches the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's target. Sustaining a high real policy rate, tight fiscal and macro-prudential policies, and supportive structural reforms would gradually reduce inflation to the target by the end of 2027 and the CBU should stand ready to increase its policy rate if the energy price reform leads to broader price pressures and raises inflation expectations. The government should continue efforts to accelerate the restructuring and privatization of state enterprises, eliminate preferences for state-owned enterprises and unbundle large enterprises to increase competition and improve the business environment. The authorities are accelerating efforts for WTO accession and undertaking measures to bolster external competitiveness and export diversification; opening markets and reducing monopolies would boost growth and help reduce inflation. According to the IMF’s analysis, it will reach 60.1% of GDP at the end of 2024, and the country's total external debt is expected to decrease to 51% of GDP by 2029. Similarly, from 33% of GDP at the end of 2024, government-guaranteed external debt is likely to decline to 27% by 2029. Several factors contribute to these positive statistics. The government of Uzbekistan aims to limit the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by introducing annual limits on the budget deficit and new debts. In addition, the 2023 public debt law limits state-guaranteed debt to 60% of GDP, with proposals for debt reduction if it reaches 50%. As stated in the report, the authorities emphasized their commitment to maintaining a moderate level of debt and noted that the government’s goal of reducing and maintaining the medium-term fiscal deficit at 3% of GDP would send purchasing power parity and external borrowing as a share of GDP downwards

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A Eurasian Perspective on the Historic Conviction of U.S. Senator Bob Menendez

On July 16, a federal court in New York found United States Senator Robert "Bob" Menendez (D) guilty on 16 counts in a corruption trial, including charges of accepting bribes to benefit the governments of Egypt and Qatar, obstruction of justice and extortion. He is the first U.S. senator to be convicted as a foreign agent and the charges collectively carry a potential sentence of 222 years in prison. Bribery charges involved receiving gold bars worth over $100,000 and more than $480,000 in cash as well as a Mercedes-Benz for his wife. “This wasn't politics as usual. This was politics for profit,” summarized Damian Williams, an attorney for the Southern District of New York. According to federal prosecutors, among other things, Menendez helped secure millions of dollars of U.S. aid for Egypt and used his office to assist a multi-million-dollar deal with a Qatari fund. Egypt’s intelligence and military officials are said to have bribed him and his wife at a time when U.S. military aid to the country would have paused due to human rights concerns. Menendez also used his official position “to protect and enrich” individuals in exchange for payments, including helping a New Jersey businessman secure a halal certification monopoly with regards to U.S. meat exports to Egypt. Striking similarities to another recent “influence-for-sale” scandal For many Europeans, this U.S. case resembles the European Union’s own Qatargate scandal, which broke out in 2022 and unveiled how foreign governments (Qatar, Morocco and Mauritania) have been channeling hundreds of thousands of euros to a ring of elected European Parliament officials who, in turn, were leveraging their authority to benefit these clients. The services included “attempts to manipulate the Parliament” and “scheming to kill off six parliamentary resolutions condemning Qatar’s human rights record” as Politico reports. In his plea deal, Antonio Panzeri, the chief of the European Parliament's Subcommittee on Human Rights (DROI), admitted to receiving bribes as well as to leading and participating in a criminal organization. This criminal organization reportedly doled out bribes to EU officials through two NGOs named Fight Impunity and No Peace Without Justice, which were allegedly set up to launder money and help fund the scheme. In Menendez’s case, the money ran through his wife’s consultancy. Qatargate allegations extended beyond the Middle East and North Africa. For instance, Atlantico.fr reported that Panzeri and his associates may have been corrupted by at least two Kazakh criminal figures. Europeans appeared lenient on corruption as Panzeri only received a five-year prison sentence, of which four would be suspended and the one year he’d serve would be under house arrest with an electronic bracelet. Momentum behind investigations of key suspects has since waned, leading the EU Observer to call Qatargate “a missed opportunity to bring Europe to justice”. Foreign policy priorities pushed by Senator Menendez need to be re-examined When public officials are found to have used their office to promote external interests, their past policy activities should be closely examined. Bob Menendez has been a member of...

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Stay or Go? Uzbek Students Ponder Studies at Home, Abroad

Like many Uzbek students, Nigina Poziljonova left Uzbekistan to study at a university abroad. She doesn’t regret her decision. “Unlike the teachers I personally saw in Uzbekistan, professors are happy when students say, ‘I don’t understand, please explain again,’” said Poziljonova, who is studying for a bachelor’s degree in business economics with data science at the University of Cassino in Italy. “If necessary, they are willing to spend two hours after class for that student. If I fail one exam, I can take it 5 times a year for 3 years for free,” said the Uzbek student, who nevertheless describes her Italian experience as “more challenging than I anticipated.” --- The perceived shortcomings of higher education have long been a preoccupation in Uzbekistan, which has a large population of young people and is the most populous country – with about 35 million citizens – in Central Asia. Authorities are trying to fix the problem. Last month, Minister of Higher Education Kongratbay Sharipov said 20 underperforming universities will be closed because only 5-10% of their graduates are employed. Uzbekistan has more than 200 universities - 114 are state-run, 65 are private and 30 are foreign university branches, according to 2023 data. Uzbekistan had the fifth largest number of “tertiary” students (students who have completed secondary school) studying abroad – 109,945 – among countries around the world that were surveyed, according to UNESCO data in 2021. Around that time, more than 570,000 students were studying in higher education institutions in Uzbekistan. As in many countries, a lot of Uzbek students believe a quality education lies abroad and their increasing command of English and openness to the world can bring that goal within reach. Additionally, Uzbekistan’s El-Yurt Umidi foundation, a state agency launched in 2018, covers tuition fees and living expenses of talented people who want to study abroad. The foundation signs a contract with scholarship holders that requires them to return to Uzbekistan and work for three years. Many students study at universities in neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and then, after one or two years, transfer to universities in Uzbekistan. According to Kyrgyz data, some 38,857 Uzbek students studied in higher education institutions in Kyrgyzstan in 2022 and the figure reached 40,282 in 2023. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev chaired a meeting in May at which officials discussed the 306 majors available at the bachelor’s level in Uzbekistan, and the 625 specialties at the master’s level. They acknowledged that some don’t meet international standards and labor market requirements and explored ways to revise them. Opening new courses in areas of high demand was also discussed. Another problem in Uzbek universities is an excessive focus on specializations. At one journalism university, specialists taught multiple sub-topics, including TV, international news, public relations, the internet, as well as military, travel, art, economic and sports journalism. Progress has been made. More people have access to higher education. Starting this year, state grants are given for one year, and in the remaining years of...

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Paving the Path Westward: Insights from the Astana and Shusha Summits

The informal OTS summit in Shusha, hosted at the invitation of Ilham Aliyev, centered on the theme of "Building a Sustainable Future through Transportation, Connectivity and Climate Action." Attendees included Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, Ersin Tatar of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, and OTS Secretary General Kubanychbek Omuraliev. In place of Erdoğan, who was in Germany supporting the Turkish national soccer team ahead of a crucial Euro 2024 quarter-final against the Netherlands, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz attended. Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov was also absent due to hosting UN Secretary-General António Guterres in Ashgabat. Notably, the Shusha summit occurred just two days after the meeting of SCO leaders in Astana, which drew an exceptional amount of attention from international observers due to the participation of the Russian and Chinese leaders. The intrigue surrounding the SCO summit was linked to its closed session, attended only by the Shanghai Ten. At the summit, only the speech delivered by Tokayev was made available to the press. Speeches made in the subsequent SCO+ format sessions were made public, wherein Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored the need for a multi-polar world, suggesting that the SCO members had discussed shifting away from Western cooperation towards the Global South. At the Shusha summit Aliyev highlighted Azerbaijan's commitment to strengthening ties within the Turkic world, emphasizing the importance of the political, economic, and military consolidation of Turkic States as a global power center. Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan has consistently sought to unite the Turkic world and enhance its influence on the global stage, stressing that the OTS should seek to emerge as a significant global power. "We cover a large geographical space and positive demographic dynamics are observed in the member countries. Our greatest assets are our rich natural resources, modern infrastructure for their delivery, transportation corridors connecting Central Asia and the Caucasus with Mediterranean and Black Sea ports, and our rich and ancient history and culture. The commitment of our people to traditional values and ethnic commonality closely unites our countries. The 21st century should become the century of prosperity of the Turkic world," the Azerbaijani leader emphasized. Aliyev also addressed the primary tasks which lie ahead for the OTS, referencing the Astana Declaration of the SCO, which designates Central Asian republics as the organization's foundation. Leaders of these republics who attended the summit in Shusha, Tokayev, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Sadyr Japarov, endorsed Aliyev's call for the expansion of the East-West transport corridor connecting Central Asia and Eurasia to Europe. Aliyev further highlighted the Digital Silk Road project, which aims to establish a fiber-optic telecommunication route between Europe and Asia via the Caspian Sea through Azerbaijan. Furthermore, when the President of Kazakhstan delivered his speech, he stressed the significance of the Trans-Caspian International Transportation Route. "The potential of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route should be fully utilized. Today, the volume of container transportation along this corridor has...

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Nuclear Race: Will Central Asia Build a Nuclear Power Plant?

The answer to the question posed in the title remains uncertain. While Uzbekistan has plans to construct a nuclear power plant and Kazakhstan is set to hold a referendum this fall to gauge public opinion on building one, progress is sluggish. Tashkent has postponed the start of construction, and the issue sparks heated debate in Kazakhstan. The First Nuclear Power Plant in Central Asia Historically, Central Asia did host a nuclear facility. Located on the shore of the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan, this was not a conventional nuclear power plant but a fast neutron reactor known as BN-350. The reactor was the core of the Mangistau Nuclear Power Plant, designed to transform the Mangyshlak Peninsula by providing energy to the city of Aktau (formerly Shevchenko) and powering large-scale desalination plants that supplied drinking water to the arid region. [caption id="attachment_20031" align="aligncenter" width="366"] BN-350[/caption] Operational from 1973 until its shutdown in 1999, the BN-350 reactor was decommissioned due to the allocation of U.S. funds for new desalination and heating equipment and the disposal of its remaining fuel. The extensive maintenance and decommissioning work on the BN-350 have given Kazakhstani nuclear physicists significant experience with such complex and hazardous technology. However, younger generations in Kazakhstan are largely unaware of the BN-350 reactor’s existence. Their knowledge of nuclear physics is often limited to the harrowing stories passed down about nuclear warhead tests at the Semipalatinsk test site and their devastating effects. Fear and Nuclear Power: Kazakhstan's Dilemma The societal fear surrounding nuclear energy in Kazakhstan is deeply intertwined with political concerns. For a long time, the leadership in Kazakhstan has hesitated to move beyond merely discussing the need for a nuclear power plant (NPP) to actually initiating the project. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev recently announced that a referendum would take place in the fall of 2024. However, Ministry of Energy's officials avoided mentioning the word "referendum" until the last moment, previously asserting it was unnecessary. Public hearings were held last year in the village of Ulken, Zhambyl district, Almaty region, a proposed site for the nuclear plant. The Ministry of Energy’s press release stated that the local populace supported developing nuclear power, highlighting its significance for regional socio-economic growth. However, media reports revealed that the hearings were contentious, with opposing viewpoints almost disrupting the speech of Nurlan Ertas, the head (akim) of the Zhambyl district. Activists even displayed banners and posters against the plant's construction. Certain groups have exploited the population's fear of another disaster like Chernobyl. Additionally, the government has struggled to convince the public that nuclear technologies are becoming safer. In contrast, Europe now includes nuclear power plants in its list of green energy sources, similar to other renewable energy sources (RES). In Kazakhstan, renewable energy accounts for only 5% of the total energy produced. The introduction of NPPs could significantly enhance the country’s position in reducing carbon emissions. The government faces a growing electricity shortage that can be addressed either harmfully or fearfully. The harmful options are coal-fired thermal power plants...

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SCO Summit: Eurasian Alliance Signs Security Agreements; Welcomes Belarus

By Jonathan Campion, reporting from the SCO Summit in Astana At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Astana this morning, leaders from the bloc’s member states signed a host of agreements intended to promote cohesion in the Eurasia region. The first session, which was held behind closed doors, had begun with the signing of the document that accepted Belarus as the SCO’s 10th full member. The SCO is a political, security and economic alliance, of which Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are founding members. The group also includes China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, and now Belarus. The organization has four observer states and 14 dialogue partners, covering half of the world’s population, and almost a third of global GDP. The first agreement signed was a document outlining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s development strategy for the next 12 months. In 2025 Kazakhstan will pass chairmanship of the alliance to China, and there is speculation that the SCO may grow further next year, to include at least one new member. With security a growing concern for members, particularly in light of the March terrorist attack outside Moscow, for which the terror group Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) have claimed responsibility, leaders approved the SCO’s latest three-year Cooperation Program to counter terrorism, separatism and extremism. The parties also signed an agreement on the organization’s regional anti-drug strategy. Another high-profile document is the SCO’s development strategy for cooperation in the energy sphere. Kazakhstan is at the forefront of the region’s transition to green energy, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping mentioning the country’s new Zhanatas wind farm and the Turgusun hydropower station as key joint projects with China in an article published in the Kazakh press this week. The heads of state were welcomed to the Summit by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus and Chinese leader Xi Jinping the last to arrive, ten minutes after the other dignitaries. Some leaders did not arrive at all: India’s Narendra Modi is not attending this year’s SCO Summit, and has sent the country’s external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in his place. The Summit's afternoon session is styled as "SCO Plus". In attendance are the heads of state of the alliance's dialogue partners, including the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev. Turkmenistan – which is not affiliated to the SCO but which is invited as a guest – is led not by its President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, but by his father Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, the former leader who is now the chairman of the country’s People’s Council.

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