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The Geopolitical Battle for Kazakhstan’s First Nuclear Power Plant

Nuclear power plants currently operate in only 32 countries in the world. Kazakhstan seems poised to join their ranks in the near future; but what does this shift mean for the energy-rich Central Asian nation? Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan has been a strong advocate for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. Astana not only eliminated its nuclear arsenal, which was one of the largest in the world at the time, but also closed the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, where the Soviet Union conducted more than 450 nuclear tests over 40 years. Thousands of people in Kazakhstan experienced birth defects and cancer linked to nuclear testing. This history makes the construction of a nuclear power plant in the former Soviet republic a particularly sensitive issue. Nevertheless, a majority of the population in Kazakhstan is expected to support building a nuclear facility in the national referendum scheduled for October 6. But what comes after the vote? If the citizens of Kazakhstan approve the government’s plans to go nuclear, the country might get its first nuclear power plant no earlier than 2035. In the meantime, Astana will have to find a strategic partner to participate in the development of the facility. Building and operation a nuclear power plant requires advanced technology, engineering expertise, and rigorous safety standards – areas where Kazakhstan currently lacks experience. “As a result, the country will likely need to rely on international partners to design, build, and possibly even operate its first nuclear power plant,” said James Walker, CEO and Head of Reactor Development at NANO Nuclear Energy, in an interview with The Times of Central Asia. Although most policymakers in Kazakhstan would like Western companies to build a nuclear power plant in Ulken, on the western shore of Lake Balkhash, at this point the Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom seems to have the best chance of playing a key role in the project. In Walker’s view, Russia has a long history of cooperation with Kazakhstan in the nuclear sector and could be a logical partner, especially given its extensive experience in building and operating nuclear power plants in other countries. “Rosatom has been actively involved in Kazakhstan’s nuclear sector for years, including uranium mining and nuclear fuel cycle activities. This established presence, coupled with Russia’s geopolitical influence in Central Asia, makes Rosatom a strong contender,” stressed the CEO of NANO Nuclear Energy, pointing out that Chinese corporations are also very interested in the potential construction of the first Kazakh nuclear power plant. Indeed, according to reports, the China National Nuclear Corporation offered to build a 1.2 GW nuclear power plant unit in Kazakhstan for $2.8 billion, with the construction taking five years. Another candidate for the project is South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation. The largest electric utility in the East Asian nation reportedly proposed building a water-cooled power reactor –using water as a coolant to transfer heat away from the core. Walker, however, argues that while South Korea has a competitive edge...

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Rosatom Considering Constructing Nuclear Power Plant in Northern Kyrgyzstan

Representatives of the Russian company Rosatom announced at a briefing that a low-capacity nuclear power plant may be built in Kyrgyzstan's northern Chui region. According to them, a preliminary feasibility study has already been developed. According to Rosatom, the company's specialists have studied the seismic potential of southern Kyrgyzstan and concluded that there are many faults in the earth's crust. This fact is reason enough not to build the plant in the south of the country. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan's north is less prone to seismic fluctuations. “The most suitable location for this project is the northern Chui oblast [region], where seismicity is the lowest. But we have not been able to name a specific site so far. A detailed study is needed. There are places in Kyrgyzstan where a nuclear power plant can be built, but not many,” said Dmitry Konstantinov, general director of Rosatom's Russian representative office in Kyrgyzstan. He said many parameters must be considered when choosing a construction site. These include seismic activity, remoteness from population centers, power lines, and a water source needed to cool the plant. Rosatom stated that the design for the small nuclear power plant potentially being built in Kyrgyzstan was developed by adapting shipboard small-power technology currently used in ships. Each unit at the plant would have a capacity of 55 MW, with the possibility of installing up to six units, allowing the plant’s total capacity to reach 300 MW. For comparison, by 2025, Kyrgyz authorities aim to achieve a capacity of 400 MW (excluding the nuclear plant) through the completion of large hydroelectric power projects. Two years ago, a memorandum on constructing a low-capacity nuclear power plant was signed between Bishkek and Moscow. Since then, the Russian company has been working on a feasibility study and studying land plots for the plant's construction. According to the head of the representative office, serious discussions are continuing with the republic's authorities. “The decision to build a nuclear power plant in Kyrgyzstan will be made by the people together with the government. And we, for our part, will provide all the necessary information and technology to make it objective. We will inform the population about our technologies and decisions so that they feel safe,” emphasized Konstantinov. Rosatom signed a memorandum with Uzbek authorities on constructing a small nuclear power plant earlier this year. According to the Russian company, construction has already begun, and the first power unit may operate in 2029. On October 6, Kazakhstan will hold a popular referendum on constructing a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. Among the most likely candidates for construction are companies from Russia, China, South Korea, and France.

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From Test Sites to Power Plants: Kazakhstan’s Journey Towards a Nuclear Referendum

The history of nuclear power in Kazakhstan has many chapters: the arms race, the suffering of people due to test sites, the highest achievements in the name of science, and the service of the nuclear industry for the benefit of society are closely intertwined here. On the eve of the referendum on Kazakhstan's first atomic power plant, it is necessary to revisit these pages in history. A dark past Construction of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site began in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic in 1947. The test site is located on the border of the Semipalatinsk (now Abay), Pavlodar, and Karaganda regions, 130 kilometers northwest of Semipalatinsk (now Semey), on the left bank of the Irtysh River. On its territory is the previously closed city of Kurchatov, renamed as such in honor of Soviet-era physicist, Igor Kurchatov. The first nuclear weapons test held in the Soviet Union was conducted at this site on August 29, 1949. The power of the bomb totaled 22 kilotons. From 1949 to 1989, at least 468 nuclear tests were conducted at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site. The long-term operation of this site and its negative impact on residents' health and the surrounding environment help to explain the fear of nuclear energy in Kazakhstan. Two million people were affected across 300 square kilometers; with all agriculture banned, a vast swathe of land still remains off-limits. Pregnancies are still screened for possible termination, with 6% of babies born “polygon” (the name for the "closed zone".) [caption id="attachment_23475" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] Polygon baby, National Museum of Kazakhstan, Astana; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] Shutdowns and shortages On August 29, 1991, Kazakhstan's first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, closed the Semipalatinsk test site. Prior to this, citizens had held rallies protesting against nuclear testing and its development. By 1994, Kazakhstan had voluntarily relinquished its part of the USSR's nuclear arsenal. On May 15, 1992, the National Nuclear Center in the city of Kurchatov was established based on the complex of the former Semipalatinsk test site. The Center deals with eliminating the consequences of nuclear tests and also conducts active and multidisciplinary scientific activities on the remaining research reactors in Kurchatov. Scientific research occurs internationally and touches upon safety technologies, the space program, and more. In 1957, the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Kazakh SSR Academy of Sciences was founded near Almaty (then Alma-Ata), where the VVR-K reactor, which is still operating today, was launched in 1967. The reactor was shut down in the late 1980s after the Chernobyl disaster and the earthquake in Spitak (Armenia); it was restarted in 1997, and the complex underwent safety and seismic reinforcement modernization. The Institute owns eight experimental facilities: the VVR-K research reactor, a "Критический стенд" lit. "critical stand," and six charged particle gas pedal complexes. In 1972, a unique fast neutron reactor BN-350 was launched in Aktau (then Shevchenko) at the Mangistau Atomic Energy Combine (MAEC). The reactor provided the Mangistau Peninsula with electricity and heat, and supported the operation of desalination plants...

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Protocol Signed to Begin Work on Uzbekistan Nuclear Plant

On September 10, Atomstroyexport, the engineering subdivision of Russia’s Rosatom State Corporation, and Uzbekistan’s Atomic Energy Agency signed a protocol on the commencement of works for the future low-power nuclear power plant (NPP) in Uzbekistan. Pavel Bezrukov, Atomstroyexport’s Director for NPP Construction Projects in Central Asia, commented that according to the protocol, Atomstroyexport will begin the documentation process for obtaining the required licenses. Otabek Amanov, Director of the NPP Construction Directorate at the Uzbek Atomic Energy Agency, added that the signing of the protocol “marks the transition to active work for implementation of the first low-power NPP project in Uzbekistan and will allow starting works at the construction site in the nearest future.” Late in August, work began to construct a residential settlement for builders of the future NPP. On May 27, Uzbekistan and Rosatom signed a contract to construct a 330 MW Russian-design low-power NPP in the Jizzakh region of Uzbekistan (6 reactors of 55 MW each). Atomstroyexport JSC is the project's general contractor. As natural gas reserves deplete and production decreases in Uzbekistan, the country strives to build new power-generating facilities, with a focus on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. The future nuclear plant, the first of its kind in Central Asia, is expected to help resolve the problem of Uzbekistan’s power shortages amid forecasts that the country’s demand for electricity will almost double by 2050. Neighboring Kazakhstan will hold a nationwide referendum on October 6 on whether to build its first nuclear power plant. The Kazakh government insists that building a nuclear power plant will help solve the problem of electricity shortages by 2030.

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Why Does Energy-Rich Kazakhstan Want Tajikistan’s Uranium?

Despite having significant uranium resources, Tajikistan does not plan to build a nuclear plant anytime soon, if it all. Quite aware of that, Kazakhstan – Dushanbe’s ally in the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – is reportedly eyeing Tajikistan’s uranium. But why? "I would rather earn a profit from the resources of others than my own," John D. Rockefeller, a prominent industrialist, is often paraphrased as saying. Policymakers in Astana could soon begin implementing such a strategy in regard to uranium. Kazakhstan is the largest producer of natural uranium worldwide. In 2022, the energy-rich nation produced the largest share of uranium from mines (43% of world supply), followed by Canada (15%) and Namibia (11%) (ref). In spite of that, Astana could eventually start purchasing the radioactive element from Tajikistan. On August 22, following Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Dushanbe, the Tajik Rare-Earth Metals Company, TajRedMet, and Kazakhstan’s national atomic company, Kazatomprom, signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation in the extraction and processing of uranium and rare-earth metals. Signing such a protocol aligns with Astana’s ambitions to build a nuclear power plant in the country. In that context, Kazatomprom – the world's largest uranium producer – is likely seeking to play an active role in producing uranium fuel for the proposed nuclear plant. Given the global resurgence of nuclear energy and the ensuing “race for uranium,” Kazatomprom is keen to assess the current status of Tajikistan's uranium reserves, and, if feasible, expand its resource base. Uranium is considered one of the main natural resources of Tajikistan. It is believed that the first atomic bomb developed by the Soviet Union contained raw materials from Tajikistan. But after the collapse of the USSR, uranium mining was curtailed in the mountainous country. According to various estimates, 14% of the world's reserves of uranium are located on the territory of the landlocked country of around 10 million people. But compared to other nations, Tajikistan does not have significant uranium mining operations, meaning its uranium deposits remain underdeveloped. However, the fact that Russian companies are interested in exploration and mining of uranium in the Tajikistan suggests that Kazatomprom might have serious competition. It is entirely possible that other foreign corporations will also eventually join the “race for uranium” in Tajikistan. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan will almost certainly be inclined to consolidate its own uranium market. In terms of uranium production in the largest Central Asian state, the Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom is the leader due to its shares in five enterprises operating in Kazakhstan. Since Astana aims to develop closer ties with the West, it is no surprise that France is looking to strengthen its position in the energy-rich country, particularly in its nuclear and uranium sectors. Russia and China are unlikely to give up easily on their ambitions to preserve their influence in the Central Asian nation, however. In 2022, Kazakhstan exported around half of its uranium to China. From January to October 2023, Astana shipped uranium worth $922.7 million to the...

Nuclear safety Nuclear power Nuclear Energy Atomic Energy Energy Legislation Referendum

Empowering Kazakhstan’s Future: Navigating Diplomatic, Energy, and Geopolitical Challenges in the Nuclear Power Referendum

Never short of diplomatic acumen, on September 2, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree on holding a referendum on the construction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Kazakhstan. Tokayev’s goal is to ensure that arguments for nuclear energy are compelling and to involve citizens, scientists, and government officials in the decision-making process. However, it's crucial that the public are fully informed about these plans as Kazakhstan finalizes the first stage of its new nuclear development. With demand for electricity soaring, it can be argued that the case for the NPP is compelling. Officials forecast that electricity deficits are set to worsen, leading to a reliance on imports, such as was the case in the 1990s. In the first three months of 2024 alone, tariffs rose by 26%. Electricity in Kazakhstan is currently generated by 222 power plants under various forms of ownership, with 84% coming from fossil fuels, hydropower accounting for 12%, and less than 2% coming from solar and wind installations as of 2019. Renewables had expanded to 5.92% by 2023, but the deficit continues to grow. Old-Timers and Newcomers On October 6 of this year, the Kazakhstani people will give the final answer in a referendum on whether nuclear power will become a component of their everyday lives or whether nuclear-phobia, connecting both the memory of atomic testing at Semipalatinsk and persistent distrust in the ability of officials to build something grandiose without embezzlement, will prevail. The example of the LRT (the project for elevated light-rail transportation in Astana, which was to be implemented back in 2013) stands as a stark monument to corruption which has even penetrated the cultural code of today's youth. One of the first episodes of a then-popular show hosted by politician and businessman, Bulat Abilov, was devoted to nuclear energy and the need to build nuclear power plants. Abilov's inspiration for this topic was Mukhtar Dzhakishev. The former Head of Kazatomprom and Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, on November 10, 2009, Dzhakishev was charged with the theft of Kazatomprom property and the receipt of bribes, and was sentenced to fourteen years imprisonment. Subsequently found guilty on separate charges related to embezzlement, fraud, involvement in organized crime and the abuse of power, he was sentenced to a further ten years to run concurrent to his prior sentence. Dzhakishev was released in March 2020, but this episode has led neither man to change their position - nuclear power plants are the best thing for Kazakhstan in light of coming energy shortfalls. Agitators for the NPP, who also include the General Director of Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants JSC, Timur Zhantikin, and specialists from the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Ministry of Energy, have, however, encountered vociferous opposition. Some still oppose the NPP, such as ecologist Mels Yeleusizov. The arguments among those resistant to construction of the NPP have long remained unchanged, with seismic hazards, radiophobia, and corruption at the forefront. The pressure on emotions has also remained unwavering, with slogans such...