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Economy

Kazakhstanis Spend 57% of Their Household Budgets on Food

Despite reported growth in certain macroeconomic indicators, the financial situation of Kazakhstani households continues to deteriorate, according to analysts at Finprom.kz, who note a sharp increase in the share of food expenditures, now accounting for more than half of total consumer spending. In the third quarter of 2025, food expenditures reached 57.2% of overall household consumer spending, the highest level since 2021. A higher figure was recorded only in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the share stood at approximately 58%. For comparison, in developed countries, food spending typically accounts for 10-15% of household budgets. In international practice, a level above 50% is generally regarded as an indicator of significant pressure on household incomes. Regionally, the burden is even more pronounced. The highest share of food expenditures between June and September 2025 was recorded in the Zhetysu region, at 65.8%. In the Turkestan region, the figure was 65.3%, and in the Almaty region, 62.2%. These regions are largely agriculturally oriented and have less diversified economies. The rising share of food expenditures is considered a key socio-economic indicator. An increase in this share reduces the resources available for education, healthcare, housing, and long-term savings or investment. The gap between urban and rural areas persists. In the third quarter of 2025, food spending accounted for 58.7% of total expenditures in rural areas, compared to 56.5% in urban areas. In absolute terms, urban food expenditures increased by 15.5% year-on-year, while rural expenditures rose by 11%. In cities, the largest increases were recorded in spending on meat and meat products (22.3%), fruit (18.6%), vegetables (16.8%), and oils and fats (16.4%). In rural areas, growth was more moderate, and spending on some categories, such as sugar and confectionery, declined. Differences are also evident in dietary structure. Rural residents spend more on bread and cereals, about $176 compared to $139 among urban residents, while urban households allocate more to dairy products, at $118 versus $93 in rural areas. The increase in the food burden has already been accompanied by a reduction in non-food spending. In urban areas, the share of non-food expenditures fell from 26% to 22.2%, and in absolute terms from $492 to $450. The sharpest declines were observed in spending on automotive goods and fuel, telecommunications, household appliances, home repairs, and interior renovation. At the same time, spending on medicines increased.

Economy

Kazakhstan Targets Raising Wage Share of GDP to 40%

The Kazakh government is preparing a series of measures aimed at accelerating wage growth and increasing the overall wage fund, with the goal of raising its share in the country’s GDP to 40%, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov announced during an expanded government meeting. According to government estimates, household incomes are currently growing more slowly than the broader economy and corporate profits, including those generated with state support. At present, wages account for roughly 31% of Kazakhstan’s GDP, a figure considered relatively high by Central Asian standards but still below the levels seen in developed economies, where wage funds typically exceed 40% of GDP. Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in 2025 reached $20.1 billion in monetary terms, with the economy expanding at an annual rate of 6.5%, according to official data. To address the income gap, the government is developing a comprehensive package that includes financial, tax, and regulatory incentives for employers to raise wages. The initiative also prioritizes the creation of new, decently paid jobs, upskilling of the workforce, and reducing the financial burden on citizens. Real income growth has been designated a key economic policy priority for 2026. A complementary role will be played by the upcoming Joint Action Program for 2026-2028, developed by the Cabinet, the financial regulator, and the National Bank. The program aims to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and improve public welfare, setting a target of household income growth at a rate of at least 2-3% above inflation each year. According to official statistics, the average monthly salary in Kazakhstan stood at approximately $873 by the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, earlier reports indicated that the minimum wage will remain frozen at $172 in 2026, despite prior commitments to increase it.

Investments

EBRD Invested Over $100 Million in Tajikistan’s Economy in 2025

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) invested nearly $103 million in Tajikistan’s economy in 2025, signing 19 agreements over the course of the year. The funding targeted key sectors including energy, transport, municipal infrastructure, and private sector development. According to the bank, 83% of its 2025 loan portfolio in Tajikistan supported sustainable infrastructure projects. Another 14% of resources were channelled through local banks to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), women’s and youth entrepreneurship initiatives, and programs focused on climate adaptation and resource efficiency. The public sector received the majority of financing, accounting for 83% of the EBRD’s annual activity in the country. Of the total lending volume, approximately 58% was directed toward green economy development. One of the year’s largest initiatives was a financing package of up to €43 million for the state-owned power distribution company, Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. The package includes an EBRD sovereign loan of up to €28 million and a €15 million grant from the European Union. These funds are being used to modernize electricity metering and billing systems across nine cities in the Khatlon and Sughd regions. Significant investment also went into road infrastructure. An EBRD sovereign loan of up to €38 million, combined with an $86.7 million grant from the Asian Development Bank, will fund the reconstruction of the Danghara-Guliston highway. The route connects the north and south of the Khatlon region, which produces over half of Tajikistan’s agricultural output and is home to more than one-third of the population. A major energy milestone was achieved in 2025 with the completion of the Kayrokkum hydropower plant’s modernization. The plant’s installed capacity increased from 126 MW to 174 MW after all six units were brought online. Serving around 500,000 people in the Sughd region, the project, initiated in 2019, was financed with $196 million arranged by the EBRD. The bank also issued three sovereign loans totaling over €12 million for water supply system upgrades in Kulyab and Yavan, and for the modernization of Dushanbe’s centralized heating system. Alongside infrastructure projects, the EBRD expanded its support for the private sector. In 2025, more than 500 small enterprises across Tajikistan received various forms of assistance from the bank.

Economy

Kazakhstan’s Economy Grew by 6.5% in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.5% year-on-year in January-December 2025, according to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau. The Ministry of National Economy reported that the key drivers of GDP growth were industry, transport, construction, and trade. At year-end, the industrial production index stood at 7.4%, with the manufacturing sector showing steady growth of 6.4%. Positive dynamics in industry were attributed to an 8.1% increase in food production, a 5.9% rise in oil refining, 9.8% growth in the chemical industry, a 1.2% uptick in metallurgy, and a 12.9% increase in machine building . The transport and warehousing sector recorded a substantial 20.4% growth in 2025, driven by increased freight transport by road and rail, alongside growth in passenger transport across various regions. The volume of ancillary transport services also expanded, including freight forwarding, air traffic control, airport and warehouse operations, and grain and refrigerated cargo storage. Construction surged by 15.9%, linked to the implementation of major infrastructure and social development projects, including the building of schools, medical facilities, and transport and engineering infrastructure. In the same period, 20.1 million square meters of housing were commissioned, a 5.1% increase from 2024. Trade posted an 8.9% increase by the end of the year, led by wholesale trade, which comprised more than two-thirds of the sector’s volume. Notably, wholesale trade in grain, seeds, and animal feed rose by 160%, trade in equipment nearly doubled, and pharmaceutical sales increased by 44.1%. Sales of automobiles grew by 33%, while dairy products, eggs, edible oils, and fats rose by 25.8%, and sugar, chocolate, and confectionery products by 21.2%. Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 5.9%, supported by a 7.8% increase in crop production and 3.3% in livestock production. The information and communications sector posted 3.6% growth. “Overall, the pace of economic development reflects the steady growth of key industries,” the Ministry of National Economy stated. For comparison, GDP growth in 2024 stood at 5%, with the largest contributions from construction (15.3%), agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (13.7%), transportation and warehousing (9.4%), wholesale and retail trade (8.9%), and manufacturing (6.8%). As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev forecast in early December 2025 that GDP would exceed 6% growth by year-end.

Economy

Uzbekistan’s International Reserves Hit Record $66.3 Billion

Uzbekistan’s international reserves surged in 2025, rising by $25.1 billion to reach a record $66.3 billion as of January 1, 2026, according to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan. This 61% increase compared to the start of the year was primarily driven by rising global gold prices, although foreign currency reserves also grew significantly. In December alone, gold and foreign exchange reserves increased by $5.08 billion, an 8.3% month-on-month gain. This marks the highest reserve level since the Central Bank began publishing official statistics in 2013. Gold remained the dominant contributor to the increase. According to the Central Bank, the value of gold in the country’s reserves rose by more than $4.23 billion in December, reaching $55.09 billion. The physical volume of gold holdings also expanded, growing from 12.2 million to 12.6 million troy ounces, an increase of 0.4 million ounces in just one month. Earlier in 2025, Uzbekistan’s gold strategy diverged from global trends. In September, the World Gold Council reported that Uzbekistan was the only country to record net gold sales. While most central banks were increasing their reserves, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan reduced its holdings during that period.

devaluation

Devaluation in Kazakhstan: Grim Forecast or Financial Strategy?

Expectations of a potential devaluation of Kazakhstan's national currency, the tenge, are gaining momentum in the country, despite its recent strengthening against the dollar. While the government projects stability, some financial players and experts openly support a weaker tenge. But are these fears grounded in economic reality, or do particular interests drive them? Kazakhstan’s currency is particularly sensitive to global market shifts because around half of the country’s export revenues come from oil and other raw materials. When commodity prices fall or external demand weakens, pressure on the tenge increases. The currency is also affected by high import dependence: many consumer goods, industrial inputs, and food products are priced in foreign currencies, making the economy highly responsive to exchange-rate movements. One of the most vocal proponents of a free-floating tenge is economist Aidarkhan Kusainov, a former adviser to the head of the National Bank. A long-time advocate for a free-floating tenge, Kusainov maintains that the currency remains overvalued. In 2021, he predicted the exchange rate would reach 500 tenge to the $1. As of now, the rate hovers around 510. Kusainov has recently gained broader attention following his criticism of rising taxes and utility tariffs during an appearance on a YouTube podcast hosted by Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev. “Today, the singer of devaluation, a well-known but unpopular economist, woke up as a competent people’s professional (judging by the comments),” Kusainov wrote, replete with smiling emojis in assessing his newfound popularity on his Telegram channel. His prediction of a $1-to-1,000-tenge exchange rate has indeed gone viral. “If our National Fund runs out today, the exchange rate will instantly soar above 1,000. As soon as we stop injecting petrodollars and transfers into the economy, the tenge will drop to 800–900, and then quickly weaken to beyond 1,000. I've always advocated for these measures," he said in an interview with Ulysmedia. These debates are unfolding against a backdrop of persistent inflationary pressure. Although headline inflation has moderated from its earlier peaks, price growth in consumer-credit-driven segments remains elevated. Any significant weakening of the tenge would likely feed directly into consumer prices, especially for imported goods, which still account for a large share of household consumption. Kusainov's projection is not shared by the majority of analysts, however, who see such a scenario occurring only under the weight of severe external shocks. In contrast, the National Bank’s forecasts remain more conservative. According to analysts surveyed by the Central Bank in November 2025, the exchange rate is expected to reach 525.8 tenge by the end of 2025. For 2026 and 2027, the tenge is projected to weaken gradually to 548.2 and 565, respectively. Economist Serik Kozybaev, among others, rejects the idea of a sharp devaluation. He has attributed the tenge’s recent strength to currency interventions by the National Bank: “There are no serious reasons for such a significant weakening. On the contrary, over the past month, the exchange rate improved from 540 to 518 due to announced interventions. I expect this trend to continue, possibly bringing...