Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kazakhstan to Diversify Agricultural Crops for Higher Yields and Increased Profits

Kazakhstan will continue diversifying its agricultural crop areas this year as part of efforts to double gross agricultural output, Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov announced at a government meeting on February 11, focused on preparations for the upcoming sowing season. According to Saparov, Kazakhstan plans to sow crops on 23.8 million hectares in 2025, an increase of 518,000 hectares compared to 2024. The crop diversification program will cover approximately 1 million hectares, while the area dedicated to highly profitable crops will expand by 750,000 hectares. The area under oilseed crops will increase by 365,000 hectares, reaching 3.3 million hectares, including a 50,600-hectare expansion for sunflower cultivation, bringing it to 1.3 million hectares. Potato cultivation will grow by 14,900 hectares to reach 136,800 hectares, while buckwheat fields will expand by 41,500 hectares, bringing the total to 147,000 hectares. The sugar beet planting area will increase to 18,400 hectares, and forage crops will expand by 184,000 hectares, reaching 3.4 million hectares. Cotton will be sown on 135,200 hectares, while rice will cover 90,200 hectares. Kazakhstan will also continue to reduce its reliance on wheat monoculture. In 2025, grain crops will be sown on 16.6 million hectares, slightly down from 16.7 million hectares in 2024. Over the past two years, wheat cultivation has been reduced by nearly 730,000 hectares, including 159,000 hectares this year. According to Saparov, diversification will help mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in agricultural markets. Oilseeds and legumes remain in high demand both domestically and internationally, with consistently strong prices. While the average price of wheat stands at 65,000 - 70,000 KZT per ton, export-oriented crops such as flax and rapeseed can fetch 200,000 KZT per ton or more. Beyond economic benefits, crop diversification contributes to soil health. Saparov highlighted that legumes, in particular, help enrich the soil with nitrogen, improving the yield of subsequent crops. This approach not only increases profitability but also enhances environmental sustainability.

Government taxes VAT Tax Economy

Kazakhstan Announces Differentiated VAT Rates

Kazakhstan’s Cabinet of Ministers has proposed a differentiated value-added tax (VAT) structure, with rates ranging from 0% to 16% and an intermediate rate of 10%. This announcement was made by Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin. The proposal comes after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev rejected an earlier plan to increase the VAT rate to 20%. “We propose the following mechanism: a general VAT rate of 16%, full exemption from VAT for agricultural producers, and an intermediate rate of 10% for certain industries. Thus, the government's proposed differentiation consists of 16%, 10%, and 0% rates,” Amrin said during a meeting with business representatives in Astana. The government plans to determine which industries will qualify for the 10% VAT rate following consultations with the business community. Amrin also noted that agricultural VAT exemptions currently apply to peasant farms (family-labor associations), while larger legal entities in the sector pay about a third of all applicable taxes due to existing tax incentives. Now, the government is ready to abolish VAT for these larger agricultural enterprises as well to enhance the competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s agricultural products. Budget Implications of the VAT Reform Kazakhstan’s current general VAT rate stands at 12%. The government expects that raising it to 16% will generate an additional 4 - 5 trillion KZT ($7.8 billion - $9.7 billion) in annual tax revenues. In late January 2025, Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin estimated that revising the VAT rate could bring in an additional 5 - 7 trillion KZT ($9.7 billion - $13.6 billion). At that time, authorities were considering a VAT increase to 20%, but late last week, President Tokayev publicly opposed such a sharp tax hike. Tokayev Calls for a Balanced Approach “It is necessary to explore different options, taking into account the specifics of various economic sectors,” Tokayev said during a meeting with representatives of Kazakhstan’s largest businesses. “I have not previously commented on this matter, as every word I say can be interpreted as a direct order due to my official status. However, I now want to make my position clear: the VAT rate should be differentiated. The rate proposed by the government was still too high,” the president stated. Tokayev emphasized the need for a balanced approach that supports businesses while also increasing budget revenues. “The state needs optimal solutions that, on the one hand, create favorable conditions and do not hinder business, and on the other hand, bring order to the tax system and ensure sustainable budget growth,” he added. Following the president’s remarks on Friday, February 7, the government revised its VAT reform plan, announcing the new differentiated rates on Monday, February 10. VAT Reform as Part of Kazakhstan’s Broader Tax Overhaul As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the draft of Kazakhstan’s new Tax Code, which includes the VAT reform provisions, also proposes a differentiated corporate income tax (CIT) rate for banks. The aim is to encourage business lending by making it more financially attractive than consumer lending or investments in government securities.

EBRD Banking Economy Green economy Economic Diversification International Finance

Powering the Green and Economic Revolution: An Interview With Andi Aranitasi, Head of the EBRD in Uzbekistan

As the Head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in Uzbekistan, Andi Aranitasi plays a key role in driving the country’s economic transformation. Under his leadership, the EBRD has expanded its investments in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and private enterprise, supporting Uzbekistan’s shift toward a more open and sustainable economy. With a focus on green energy, digitalization, and financial reforms, Aranitasi’s efforts contribute to the nation’s long-term development and integration into global markets. In 2024, the EBRD set an investment record in Uzbekistan by signing off on 34 projects worth €938 million (US $960 million). The country once again became the leading recipient of the Bank’s funding in Central Asia, with 55% of the Bank’s investments going towards green economy projects. The EBRD has supported Central Asia's first renewable hydrogen facility by providing a $65 million financing package to a joint venture of ACWA Power and Uzkimyosanoat, which will help to decarbonize the fertilizer production sector in Uzbekistan. The Bank also organized an A/B loan of US$ 226 million for developing, designing, constructing, and operating a 200MW solar photovoltaic power plant and a 501MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) in the Tashkent region. This is one of the most significant EBRD-supported BESS projects in the economies where the Bank operates. Its sovereign loan of $66.4 million to the National Electric Grid of Uzbekistan (NEGU) will support the construction of a 230 km 500 kV transmission line in the Navoi region. This project will help to eliminate bottlenecks in the grid, reduce electricity outages, and facilitate the integration of renewables. The EBRD’s sovereign loan of $238 million, meanwhile, will help rehabilitate a key road and build a bridge across the Amu Darya River in the Khorezm region, thus contributing to sustainable transport connections. The country’s financial sector attracted over €300 million from the EBRD through trade finance limits and loans to local financial institutions. It offered credit lines and risk-sharing agreements to such domestic lenders as Hamkorbank, Ipoteka Bank, TBC Bank Uzbekistan, and Uzbek Leasing International. Special attention was paid to the development and support of SMEs, including those needing energy efficiency improvements and owned and managed by youth and women. The EBRD also increased its equity investment in TBC Uzbekistan, the country’s first digital bank. Additionally, the EBRD and the government of Uzbekistan agreed to work jointly on the successful privatization of one of the country’s largest state-owned lenders, Asakabank. In 2024, the EBRD’s Advice for Small Business program in Uzbekistan launched 60 projects, increasing its outreach to domestic SMEs. Half of these were with women entrepreneurs, and over 40% were in rural areas. More than 80,000 entrepreneurs nationwide were reached through specialized training, networking, online outreach, and knowledge-sharing events. Throughout 2024, the EBRD was actively engaged in policy dialogue with the national authorities, which facilitated the approval of several key legal acts, such as laws on privatization, the electricity market, and subsoil use. TCA spoke with Andi Aranitasi. TCA: The EBRD has been involved...

Economy World Bank Economic Reforms

Kyrgyzstan Economy at Risk of Stagnation, Warns World Bank

The World Bank has released a new report on the economic development of Kyrgyzstan and the broader Central Asian region. While the report acknowledges that Kyrgyzstan’s economy is growing at a steady pace, it warns that this growth is insufficient to propel the country to the next stage of development. The report, prepared in collaboration with the Kyrgyz Ministry of Economy and Commerce, outlines a three-stage approach to advancing the national economy. According to David Knight, a leading economist at the World Bank, Kyrgyzstan should prioritize investment, the adoption of new technologies, and innovation. The World Bank also recommends that the government focus on improving education, strengthening the private sector, and reforming energy policy. "Kyrgyzstan's economy is currently showing strong indicators. However, these are not enough to facilitate a transition to the next level of development. As experience shows, it is only a matter of time before economic growth slows. The key question is whether the authorities can sustain momentum," Knight said. Ivaylo Izvorski, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia, told The Times of Central Asia that Kyrgyzstan needs targeted investments — or "point injections" — in key sectors, particularly industry and energy. "Why is it so difficult to transition from middle-income to high-income status? One reason is that countries cannot simply shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth overnight. The right technologies must first be introduced into the economy, and only then can innovation take hold," Izvorski explained. The World Bank has also raised concerns about Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector, particularly its pricing policies. Despite recent increases in electricity and heating costs, World Bank experts argue that tariffs remain artificially low and heavily subsidized, which could hinder long-term development. "If electricity costs 10 cents per unit but consumers pay only 3 cents, it leads to waste and inefficiencies. State subsidies, the monopoly of state-owned enterprises, and market distortions continue to obstruct energy sector reforms," Izvorski said. The report also highlighted the need for education reform. The World Bank advises Kyrgyz authorities to raise educational standards, particularly in higher education, to support a more skilled workforce. To achieve this, universities and vocational schools should strengthen partnerships with industrial enterprises, while university funding should be tied to institutional performance.

Trump Administration Foreign Affairs Global Markets Economy

Trump’s Trade Wars and Kazakhstan’s Economic Jitters

U.S. President Donald Trump is addressing his country's economic challenges with aggressive trade policies, threatening tariff barriers and demanding concessions from major economies. The Times of Central Asia explores whether these actions could deepen economic challenges in Kazakhstan and the broader Central Asian region. A New Round of Trade Wars In early February, the United States officially announced a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a reduced 10% tariff on Canadian energy resources. Additionally, a 10% tariff was imposed on all Chinese imports. The justification given was to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. While Mexico and Canada managed to delay the new tariffs through negotiations, China responded swiftly with retaliatory measures. According to China's Ministry of Finance, Beijing imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. oil and agricultural machinery imports, and a 15% duty on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Additionally, Chinese regulators launched an antitrust investigation into Google, further escalating tensions. Despite these developments, a resolution remains possible, though seemingly ever more distant. On February 3, Trump announced plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but that call was then canceled following China's retaliatory measures. In a further escalation, on February 5, the US Postal Service said it has stopped accepting parcels from mainland China and Hong Kong until further notice. Meanwhile, Trump has also signaled plans to impose new duties on goods from the European Union. As of November 2024, China was the third-largest U.S. trading partner, accounting for 11.3% of total U.S. foreign trade. Mexico (15.4%) and Canada (13.8%) ranked first and second, respectively. In contrast, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations do not rank among the top 15 U.S. trading partners. Domestic Issues Outweigh External Pressures According to economist Aidarkhan Kusainov, Trump's trade policies are unlikely to have a direct impact on Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Speaking to The Times of Central Asia, Kusainov argued that domestic economic challenges far outweigh the influence of global trade wars. "Our economy faces significant internal distortions, making global trade wars a relatively minor factor. Inflation in Kazakhstan is not caused by external pressures but by rising fuel and utility costs, tax policies, and discussions about increasing value-added tax (VAT). Within a short period, the tenge’s exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has shifted from 490 to 530," he said. Kusainov further emphasized that if Kazakhstan's inflation rate were around 2%, any impact from global factors would be worth analyzing. However, with official inflation at 9% - and real inflation likely much higher - domestic issues are the primary concern. "Our economy is so small compared to the world's leading economies that its presence in the global market is nearly imperceptible. By economic volume, we are smaller than some Chinese provinces. Other Central Asian countries are even less integrated into global trade," Kusainov noted. He warned that only a large-scale global crisis could significantly impact Kazakhstan’s economy, potentially exposing internal vulnerabilities that the government can no longer mitigate. Inflation Risks Inflation remains a pressing concern in...

Economy Economic Reforms VAT taxes Market economy

Kazakhstan Introduces Tax Incentives to Encourage Business Lending

Kazakhstan's draft Tax Code, set to take effect in 2026, proposes a differentiated corporate income tax (CIT) rate for banks, aiming to encourage business lending by making it more financially attractive than consumer lending or government securities investments. The proposed changes were announced by Akylzhan Baimagambetov, Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, during a recent briefing. He explained that Kazakhstani banks currently derive income from three main sources: Government securities, whose earnings are currently tax-exempt. Consumer lending, taxed at 20% CIT. Business lending is also taxed at 20% CIT. As banks tend to prioritize consumer lending over business loans, monetary authorities are now restructuring tax incentives to alter this trend. “The proposed approach is as follows: investments in government securities will now be subject to corporate income tax while lending to businesses will be taxed at a lower rate - 20% CIT. Meanwhile, all other income, including government securities and consumer lending, will be taxed at 25% CIT,” said Baimagambetov. Possible VAT Increase to 20% Another major tax reform under discussion is an increase in value-added tax (VAT) from the current 12% to as high as 20%. “We have not yet finalized the VAT rate, but the proposed range is 16% to 20%. Our calculations show that a higher VAT rate would increase the average burden on businesses by just 4%, but the end consumer will certainly feel the price hike. Inflation may rise by up to 4.5%, and we need to mitigate this impact,” said Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin. To counterbalance the inflationary effect, the government plans to expand targeted social assistance, adjust salaries in state institutions, and increase pensions. In addition, if VAT is raised to 20%, the government intends to reduce payroll taxes by 10% by eliminating the social tax and mandatory employer pension contributions. “If we are not permitted to reduce these expenses, we will not increase VAT significantly - it’s a matter of checks and balances. We plan to submit our VAT proposal to parliament in the second half of February,” Zhumangarin added. Lower VAT Registration Threshold and Expected Revenue Boost Another key tax reform under discussion is a reduction in the VAT registration threshold from 78.6 million tenge to 15 million tenge. The government expects this change to increase tax revenues by 5-7 trillion tenge. In 2024, Kazakhstan’s national budget collected 12.3 trillion tenge in taxes. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the new Tax Code will also introduce a luxury tax on high-value goods such as yachts and cigars.