Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Trade

Kyrgyzstan Prioritizes Export Support as External Trade Declines

Kyrgyzstan is intensifying efforts to support domestic exporters as the country faces a sustained decline in foreign trade. Authorities now regard export development as a central pillar of economic policy. First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Daniyar Amangeldiyev reiterated this position during a meeting of the Export Development Council on March 24. The government is considering a range of practical measures aimed at strengthening export capacity. Among them is a pilot programme to partially reimburse transportation and logistics costs. The initiative is intended to reduce the price of Kyrgyz goods in foreign markets and enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, officials plan to expand access to financing through a new preferential credit facility titled “Export Contract Financing.” The mechanism is designed to address exporters’ cash-flow constraints and support working capital, backed by insurance instruments and state guarantees. These steps come amid a significant deterioration in trade performance. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s exports fell by 20.3% in January 2026, while imports increased by 6.1%. The decline reflects a broader trend. In 2025, exports dropped by 44.5%, while imports rose by 3.9%. Total foreign trade turnover reached $15.8 billion, representing a decrease of 10.2% compared to 2024. Kyrgyzstan’s export geography remains relatively concentrated. In 2025, the country’s main export destinations were Russia (22.9%), Kazakhstan (15.9%), Switzerland (15.4%), Uzbekistan (14.2%), and the United Kingdom (8.2%). Imports, meanwhile, were dominated by China (37.2%), followed by Russia (24.6%) and Kazakhstan (10.9%). Such concentration increases the economy’s vulnerability to fluctuations in demand among a limited number of trading partners. The sharp fall in exports was driven largely by declining gold shipments, Kyrgyzstan’s principal export commodity. According to the Ministry of Economy, gold exports fell by a factor of 3.7 in 2025. Gold accounted for 23.9% of total exports, underscoring the country’s dependence on a single commodity. Both external and domestic factors contributed to the downturn. Weaker demand in key partner markets, including Russia and Kazakhstan, reduced export volumes. At the same time, temporary government restrictions on the export of certain goods, such as scrap metal and livestock, also constrained trade flows.

Economy

Kyrgyz Citizens Are Spending More and Saving Less

The financial habits of Kyrgyz citizens has changed significantly in recent years: people are spending more and saving less. This conclusion was reached by the country's National Statistical Committee. According to the agency, the share of household savings has more than halved, from 24.3% of income in 2020 to 10.8% in 2024. Until 2021, however, Kyrgyz citizens had shown a tendency to save. This contributed to the growth of banks’ deposit bases, and the authorities noted increasing confidence in the financial sector. Formally, this confidence remains, but household behavior has changed. In 2024, the country’s gross disposable income amounted to approximately $20.5 billion, of which roughly $18.2 billion was directed towards consumption. A significant share of economic activity is therefore effectively geared towards meeting current domestic demand. This trend coincides with a period of strong economic growth that the authorities have described as a “leopard’s leap.” In recent years, GDP growth has reached about 10% annually. Economists say domestic demand remains the key driver of growth. The construction sector is expanding, mortgage lending is increasing, and infrastructure projects and gold mining continue to develop. Another indicator of changing behavior is the rise in household consumer spending. Its share increased from 75.4% of GDP in 2020 to 86.9% in 2024. At the same time, statistics show so-called negative savings, meaning that the population is spending more than it officially earns. In practice, this reflects the active use of loans and other external sources of financing. The banking sector and the State Mortgage Company (SMC) play a key role in this process, supporting consumption and thereby stimulating economic growth. Despite continued economic expansion, according to official data, GDP increased by 8% in January-February 2026, analysts warn of potential risks. The decline in savings means households have fewer resources to build a financial “safety cushion.” With incomes largely directed towards current consumption, their resilience to economic shocks is weakening.

Domestic trade

Kazakhstan’s Domestic Trade Growth Slows as Consumer Demand Weakens

The growth of domestic trade in Kazakhstan slowed markedly in early 2026, reinforcing signs of weakening consumer activity and increased business caution. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the trade sector expanded by only 3.4% in January–February, compared with 6% during the same period a year earlier. Growth slowed significantly, affecting both wholesale and retail trade. Analysts at Halyk Finance believe the trend reflects deeper economic processes rather than a short-term fluctuation. “The dynamics at the start of the year point to a cooling of aggregate demand and economic activity,” Halyk Finance said. Wholesale trade, a key indicator of business activity, showed the most pronounced slowdown. Growth fell to 3.8%, down from 6.6% a year earlier. In the first two months of the year, the volume of wholesale transactions reached $9.6 billion. However, the structure of trade indicates a predominance of non-food and industrial goods, reflecting weaker corporate demand. Experts also note that declining oil production has exerted additional pressure on the sector, directly affecting wholesale sales volumes. The situation in retail trade remains mixed. Overall growth stood at 2.6%, driven largely by large retail chains. Sales in organized retail increased by 3.7%, while turnover among individual entrepreneurs and traditional markets continued to decline, falling by 1%. This trend reflects ongoing structural changes in the sector. The market is gradually shifting in favor of large retail players, while small businesses face growing competitive pressure. Changes in consumer spending patterns are also evident. Sales of food products rose by 9.1%, whereas non-food sales increased by only 0.2%, despite accounting for the majority of retail turnover. This suggests that households are becoming more cautious, focusing spending on essential goods and postponing purchases of more expensive items. Another indicator of weakening demand is the rise in inventory levels. As of early March, inventories totaled approximately $2.5 billion, equivalent to around 77 days of sales. Combined with slower turnover, this points to a softening of consumer demand. Overall, analysts note that domestic trade continues to grow, but the pace of expansion is slowing and becoming less sustainable. Business activity remains subdued, consumers are saving more, and the market is gradually shifting toward more formal retail participants. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the government is considering support measures for key sectors, including dairy and baking, in an effort to curb inflation and sustain demand.

Economy

Tokayev: Kazakhstan’s GDP Could Reach $320 Billion by End of 2026

Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product could reach $320 billion by the end of 2026, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said at a forum for parliamentary deputies. Speaking at the event, Tokayev noted that the global economy is facing heightened geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, which he linked to declining trust between major powers and what he described as a weakening of international responsibility mechanisms. “Of course, the current situation directly affects our country’s opportunities. But despite this, we are overcoming challenges, maintaining steady economic growth, and consistently implementing our national strategy,” Tokayev said. According to him, Kazakhstan’s GDP reached $306 billion in 2025. He described this as the second-highest level among post-Soviet countries and the highest in Central Asia. Tokayev also said Kazakhstan had entered the world’s top 50 economies and cited forecasts by international financial institutions suggesting that GDP could reach $320 billion by the end of 2026. Investment and reserves Kazakhstan continues to attract significant foreign direct investment, Tokayev said, noting that net inflows had exceeded $150 billion. According to him, this represents about 69% of total investment directed to Central Asia. He added that the country’s financial buffers remain substantial. Gold and foreign exchange reserves stand at about $74 billion, while total reserves, including assets held in the National Fund, amount to approximately $139 billion. Industrial and agricultural growth Tokayev said economic expansion is being driven not only by overall growth but also by structural changes. In particular, manufacturing output has increased by more than 6% annually over the past two years. He also highlighted the importance of the agro-industrial sector, which he said affects the living standards of 7.4 million people, or about 36% of Kazakhstan’s population. State support for agriculture has increased in recent years. In 2025, more than $2 billion was allocated for concessional lending to farmers, which Tokayev described as the largest level of support provided to the sector since independence. According to Tokayev, government policy aims not only to expand agricultural production but also to develop a modern, export-oriented agro-industrial economy. He said that in 2025 around 250 new production facilities were launched in the sector, while international companies increased their presence in agricultural projects. Major investment initiatives involving foreign partners are being implemented in the Almaty, Akmola, Zhambyl, and North Kazakhstan regions, as well as in the city of Shymkent. Total investment in these projects exceeds $1 billion and is expected to create tens of thousands of jobs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, export revenues from Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial sector reached $7 billion in 2025, an increase of 37% compared with the previous year.

Middle East

Middle East Conflict May Slow Growth, but Gold and Oil Dynamics Could Cushion Impact

The escalating conflict in the Middle East could weigh on Uzbekistan’s economic growth if it persists, though higher gold prices and oil-driven gains in key partner economies may soften the impact, according to Uzbek economist Mirkomil Kholboyev. Kholboyev shared his analysis on his Telegram channel, examining both the direct and indirect channels through which the crisis could affect Central Asia’s largest economy. “Several days of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have already turned into open military confrontation,” he wrote. “It is still difficult to say how long this situation will last. If it is short-term and the previous status quo is restored, the impact on our economy will likely be limited and temporary. But if the war continues for a longer period, the consequences could be more significant.” Direct trade exposure appears limited. According to data from Uzbekistan’s national statistics portal, the country exported $157 million worth of goods to Iran in 2025, accounting for just 0.5% of total exports. Imports from Iran totaled $421 million, or 0.9% of overall imports. Trade with Israel was even smaller, with exports of $33 million and imports of $22 million. “Even a complete halt in trade with these countries would not significantly affect total exports,” Kholboyev wrote, though he noted that export and import growth could slow. Iran also plays a role as a transit hub. Its ports are part of broader regional logistics networks, including the Central Asia-India corridor via Chabahar and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). According to a regional analytical report, Uzbekistan accounts for 5.5% of total traffic along this route, compared with 61.1% for Kazakhstan and 29.4% for Turkmenistan. Kholboyev pointed out that while some of Uzbekistan’s trade passes through Iranian ports, the country is less dependent on them than other Central Asian countries. Still, he cautioned that prolonged fighting would inevitably disrupt both direct trade and transit flows. “I do not have precise data on how much of our total foreign trade passes specifically through Iranian ports,” he wrote. “That makes it difficult to assess the full effect. But if the war continues, both direct trade and transit through Iran will suffer serious damage.” Even if trade with the wider region, including Iran and other countries affected by hostilities, were to stop entirely, Kholboyev estimates the impact would remain moderate. The region accounts for about 2.4% of Uzbekistan’s exports and 1.5% of imports. A complete halt could slow export growth by roughly 3% and imports by about 2.5%, reducing overall GDP growth by around 0.6 percentage points. A 50% reduction in trade with the region would shave an estimated 0.2-0.3 percentage points off GDP growth. Energy markets represent a more significant risk channel. As trading resumed after the latest escalation, global oil prices rose by about 9%, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes. “If tensions escalate further and oil flows are restricted, or if prices continue rising amid uncertainty, this could slow...

Economy

Kazakhstanis Spend 57% of Their Household Budgets on Food

Despite reported growth in certain macroeconomic indicators, the financial situation of Kazakhstani households continues to deteriorate, according to analysts at Finprom.kz, who note a sharp increase in the share of food expenditures, now accounting for more than half of total consumer spending. In the third quarter of 2025, food expenditures reached 57.2% of overall household consumer spending, the highest level since 2021. A higher figure was recorded only in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the share stood at approximately 58%. For comparison, in developed countries, food spending typically accounts for 10-15% of household budgets. In international practice, a level above 50% is generally regarded as an indicator of significant pressure on household incomes. Regionally, the burden is even more pronounced. The highest share of food expenditures between June and September 2025 was recorded in the Zhetysu region, at 65.8%. In the Turkestan region, the figure was 65.3%, and in the Almaty region, 62.2%. These regions are largely agriculturally oriented and have less diversified economies. The rising share of food expenditures is considered a key socio-economic indicator. An increase in this share reduces the resources available for education, healthcare, housing, and long-term savings or investment. The gap between urban and rural areas persists. In the third quarter of 2025, food spending accounted for 58.7% of total expenditures in rural areas, compared to 56.5% in urban areas. In absolute terms, urban food expenditures increased by 15.5% year-on-year, while rural expenditures rose by 11%. In cities, the largest increases were recorded in spending on meat and meat products (22.3%), fruit (18.6%), vegetables (16.8%), and oils and fats (16.4%). In rural areas, growth was more moderate, and spending on some categories, such as sugar and confectionery, declined. Differences are also evident in dietary structure. Rural residents spend more on bread and cereals, about $176 compared to $139 among urban residents, while urban households allocate more to dairy products, at $118 versus $93 in rural areas. The increase in the food burden has already been accompanied by a reduction in non-food spending. In urban areas, the share of non-food expenditures fell from 26% to 22.2%, and in absolute terms from $492 to $450. The sharpest declines were observed in spending on automotive goods and fuel, telecommunications, household appliances, home repairs, and interior renovation. At the same time, spending on medicines increased.