Finance - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 895

Finance

Uzbekistan’s Central Bank Reaffirms Commitment to Reforms and Free Exchange Rate

Uzbekistan’s central bank has reiterated that the som’s exchange rate will be left to market forces, arguing that a 'free float' is key to its inflation-targeting framework. In a statement released this month, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan said the exchange rate should be treated as an indicator, not a policy target. Attempts to hold the currency at a chosen point, it warned, can build pressure that later unwinds in sharper moves. Any foreign exchange operations, it added, would be aimed at smoothing excessive, short-term volatility, rather than steering the market. The stance continues a shift that began with the 2017 liberalisation of the currency market, which gave more access to foreign exchange, and narrowed the gap between official and black market rates. Recent fluctuations in the som have been closely watched. An earlier report on why the som has held up at times pointed to remittance inflows, export earnings and a tighter domestic monetary stance. Uzbekistan adopted inflation targeting in 2020, using the policy rate as its main lever. The central bank has kept the key rate at 14% since December 2025. It is due to review it again on January 28. In its monetary policy guidelines for 2026–2028, the bank projects headline inflation easing to about 7% by the end of 2026 and returning to a 5% medium-term target in 2027, assuming monetary conditions remain restrictive, and external price pressures fade. A floating rate can cushion swings in commodity prices, remittances and trading partner demand. But it also passes currency shifts more directly into the cost of dollar-priced imports, from consumer goods to industrial inputs. That risk is heightened when energy shortages and higher fuel costs feed broader price pressures, as described in coverage of the region’s growing energy deficit. International lenders have broadly backed Uzbekistan’s direction, while urging deeper reforms. In late 2025, the IMF welcomed greater exchange-rate flexibility and called for continued structural changes, according to its latest review.

Rogun Hydropower Plant

Independent Audit Raises Concerns Over Financial Reporting at Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant

An independent audit of Tajikistan’s flagship Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) has flagged serious financial reporting concerns, including a possible understatement of the company’s share capital. The findings, cited by Asia-Plus from the auditor’s conclusion, point to broader risks in the management of one of Central Asia’s most ambitious infrastructure projects. The audit, covering Rogun’s 2024 financial statements, was conducted by Baker Tilly Tajikistan, a registered member of the international Baker Tilly network. The auditors issued a qualified opinion, meaning they were unable to fully confirm the accuracy of the company’s accounts and highlighted several material issues. The audited report has been published on the official Rogun HPP website. Among the key concerns, auditors stated they had not been involved in scheduled or annual inventories of cash, fixed assets, or other inventories as of December 31, 2024. This limited their ability to verify the existence and condition of parts of the company’s assets through alternative procedures, raising the risk of potential misstatements in the financial records. The audit also noted that Rogun’s fixed assets had not been revalued in recent years, despite signs that their book value may significantly differ from their fair market value. Under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), such assets are required to be revalued periodically. The failure to do so may distort the company’s true financial position. A particularly striking finding involved discrepancies in the company’s reported share capital. Rogun’s financial statements list share capital at 40.03 billion somoni, while the Unified State Register of Legal Entities records it at 45 billion somoni. The difference, 4.97 billion somoni, or approximately $540 million, may indicate that the company has understated its equity. According to the audit, Rogun’s management did not provide adequate documentation to support the lower figure. As of the end of 2024, Rogun reported total assets of 49.48 billion somoni, up from the previous year. The bulk, 35.33 billion somoni, was classified as construction in progress, reflecting the plant’s ongoing development phase. The book value of fixed assets stood at 9.28 billion somoni, with most 2024 expenditures directed toward equipment and construction work. The company reported 2024 revenues of 258.4 million somoni, primarily from electricity sales. However, operating costs exceeded income, totaling 367.4 million somoni, resulting in a net loss of 277.3 million somoni. This marks a modest improvement over 2023, when the net loss was 332.8 million somoni. The auditors described these losses as systemic, emphasizing that the plant has not yet reached full operational capacity. Despite the loss, Rogun HPP generated a positive operating cash flow of more than 3.2 billion somoni in 2024. This was largely attributed to increased liabilities from founders and settlements with state institutions. Baker Tilly stressed that the company’s continued operation depends heavily on sustained government support, which is regularly allocated through Tajikistan’s state budget. The auditors also issued a warning over material uncertainty regarding the company’s ability to continue as a going concern. However, Rogun’s management maintains that the project is a strategic national asset, vital to Tajikistan’s...

Economic Growth

Development Spending in Kyrgyzstan Surpasses Social Spending for the First Time

The Kyrgyz government has reported strong economic performance in 2025, highlighting robust GDP growth and strengthened public finances. At a year-end meeting, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev announced that all state objectives had been met despite challenging conditions. According to Kasymaliev, gross domestic product is expected to grow by more than 10% by year’s end, positioning Kyrgyzstan among the global leaders in economic growth. The country’s GDP reached $20.5 billion, and for the first time in its history, the consolidated budget surpassed $11.5 billion. A budget surplus of $392 million was recorded, which Kasymaliev described as a sign of growing financial stability. He emphasized the country’s accelerated infrastructure development, with 341 new facilities commissioned in 2025. Projects include roads, parks, cultural and sports centers, and residential buildings, many implemented under State Mortgage Company initiatives. Notably, for the first time, development expenditures outpaced social expenditures, a shift aligned with the recommendations of international financial institutions. Macroeconomic improvements were also supported by data from the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan. As of the third quarter of 2025, the banking sector showed strong lending growth: the overall loan portfolio rose by 10.5% over the quarter and approximately 33% year-on-year. Consumer loans made up the largest share at 16.6%, followed by mortgages at 10.5% and agricultural loans at 3.1%. Expansion in the construction sector has been driven by both state spending and foreign investment. Meanwhile, the dollarization of the loan portfolio continued to decline, falling to 17.8% from over 20% at the start of the year. “High activity among the population and businesses has contributed to an increase in lending in the national currency over the nine months of 2025,” the National Bank stated.

Capital Markets

Uzbekistan Unveils New Capital Market Reforms to Attract $1 Billion in Investment

Uzbekistan has approved a presidential decree aimed at enhancing the investment climate in the country’s capital markets. According to the Ministry of Justice, the reform package is designed to attract $1 billion in new investments by 2030 through the introduction of modern financial instruments. As part of this strategy, authorities plan to issue corporate bonds worth five trillion Uzbekistani som (approximately $415 million) to expand funding opportunities for local businesses. The ministry noted that the decree also focuses on improving investor protection by introducing mechanisms expected to eliminate over 85 percent of current violations in the capital market. A key component of the reform is the indefinite extension of the “Regulatory Sandbox”, a special legal regime that allows financial institutions to test innovative products under simplified regulatory conditions. Within the sandbox framework, Uzbek legal entities can apply for participant status, while foreign organizations and local investment funds may offer financial services related to the safe custody and accounting of securities they issue or hold. The decree also permits issuers, in specific cases outlined by law, to release unsecured corporate bonds exceeding the size of their own capital, broadening fundraising options for businesses. Separately, Uzbekistan has taken a major step toward digital finance. As previously reported, the Wallet service on the Telegram messaging platform officially launched in Uzbekistan on December 9, giving over 27 million local users access to cryptocurrency transactions. The service supports major digital assets such as Bitcoin, Toncoin, and USDT, enabling users to buy, store, and transfer crypto using local payment systems. The launch reflects Uzbekistan’s broader ambition to position itself as a regional hub for regulated digital financial services.

Finance

Wallet in Telegram Launches in Uzbekistan, Expanding Crypto Access to Millions

Wallet in Telegram, a global digital asset service integrated directly into the Telegram messaging app, officially launched in Uzbekistan on December 9, opening up crypto access to more than 27 million local users. The move marks a major expansion of Telegram’s financial ecosystem and reinforces Uzbekistan’s role as a regional leader in regulated digital finance. The service allows users to buy, store, and transfer cryptocurrencies without needing to install additional applications. Registration takes only seconds, and transactions can be completed using local payment systems such as Humo, Visa, and Mastercard. Wallet currently supports Bitcoin, Toncoin, USDT, and over 200 other digital assets. According to the company, the goal is to make crypto transactions as seamless as sending a message, an especially relevant approach in Uzbekistan, where Telegram usage exceeds 88% of the internet-connected population. By embedding financial tools into an everyday platform, Wallet aims to normalize digital asset use and broaden access to global financial technologies. The technical infrastructure for Wallet’s Uzbekistan launch is provided by Asterium, the country’s largest crypto ecosystem and a key fintech player. Asterium is responsible for ensuring secure transactions, identity verification, and data protection. “Our mission at Asterium is to make working with crypto assets simple and accessible for everyone. Wallet in Telegram reflects our product philosophy: it is convenient, transparent, and secure, meaning it is genuinely useful for people,” said Komilhodja Sultonov, CEO of Asterium. The service was licensed by Uzbekistan’s National Agency for Perspective Projects (NAPP), the regulatory body overseeing the digital asset sector. Uzbekistan has developed one of Central Asia’s most comprehensive legal frameworks for crypto, with a strong focus on user protection and structured innovation. In response to questions from The Times of Central Asia, NAPP clarified how Wallet aligns with current regulations. Askarjon Zakirov, Head of the Crypto-Assets Turnover Sphere Development Department, emphasized that Uzbekistan legally distinguishes crypto assets from fiat currency. “Firstly, we say that a crypto asset is not a means of payment or a monetary equivalent,” he said. [caption id="attachment_40689" align="aligncenter" width="300"] @TCA/Sadokat Jalolova[/caption] Zakirov explained that crypto is treated as a form of property under Uzbek law. As such, transferring cryptocurrency is regarded as a transfer of property rights rather than a financial transaction with monetary obligations. Pavel Khristolubov, COO of Fintech and Web3 at Wallet in Telegram, also underscored the platform’s commitment to regulatory compliance. “It’s very important for us to operate within the framework of our license. This means we don't compete with local payment systems,” he said. Khristolubov added that Wallet users can choose between custodial services and non-custodial, on-chain options, offering varying degrees of freedom and security. Andrew Rogozov, CEO of The Open Platform (TOP), the technology company behind Wallet, described Uzbekistan as one of the world’s most dynamic digital markets. “By combining Telegram’s scale with regulatory clarity and high mobile adoption, we see Uzbekistan as a model for how emerging markets can leapfrog into convenient, technology-driven finance,” he said. Globally, Wallet in Telegram has over 150 million registered users. Its launch...

devaluation

Devaluation in Kazakhstan: Grim Forecast or Financial Strategy?

Expectations of a potential devaluation of Kazakhstan's national currency, the tenge, are gaining momentum in the country, despite its recent strengthening against the dollar. While the government projects stability, some financial players and experts openly support a weaker tenge. But are these fears grounded in economic reality, or do particular interests drive them? Kazakhstan’s currency is particularly sensitive to global market shifts because around half of the country’s export revenues come from oil and other raw materials. When commodity prices fall or external demand weakens, pressure on the tenge increases. The currency is also affected by high import dependence: many consumer goods, industrial inputs, and food products are priced in foreign currencies, making the economy highly responsive to exchange-rate movements. One of the most vocal proponents of a free-floating tenge is economist Aidarkhan Kusainov, a former adviser to the head of the National Bank. A long-time advocate for a free-floating tenge, Kusainov maintains that the currency remains overvalued. In 2021, he predicted the exchange rate would reach 500 tenge to the $1. As of now, the rate hovers around 510. Kusainov has recently gained broader attention following his criticism of rising taxes and utility tariffs during an appearance on a YouTube podcast hosted by Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev. “Today, the singer of devaluation, a well-known but unpopular economist, woke up as a competent people’s professional (judging by the comments),” Kusainov wrote, replete with smiling emojis in assessing his newfound popularity on his Telegram channel. His prediction of a $1-to-1,000-tenge exchange rate has indeed gone viral. “If our National Fund runs out today, the exchange rate will instantly soar above 1,000. As soon as we stop injecting petrodollars and transfers into the economy, the tenge will drop to 800–900, and then quickly weaken to beyond 1,000. I've always advocated for these measures," he said in an interview with Ulysmedia. These debates are unfolding against a backdrop of persistent inflationary pressure. Although headline inflation has moderated from its earlier peaks, price growth in consumer-credit-driven segments remains elevated. Any significant weakening of the tenge would likely feed directly into consumer prices, especially for imported goods, which still account for a large share of household consumption. Kusainov's projection is not shared by the majority of analysts, however, who see such a scenario occurring only under the weight of severe external shocks. In contrast, the National Bank’s forecasts remain more conservative. According to analysts surveyed by the Central Bank in November 2025, the exchange rate is expected to reach 525.8 tenge by the end of 2025. For 2026 and 2027, the tenge is projected to weaken gradually to 548.2 and 565, respectively. Economist Serik Kozybaev, among others, rejects the idea of a sharp devaluation. He has attributed the tenge’s recent strength to currency interventions by the National Bank: “There are no serious reasons for such a significant weakening. On the contrary, over the past month, the exchange rate improved from 540 to 518 due to announced interventions. I expect this trend to continue, possibly bringing...