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Finance Banking Healthcare World Bank IMF IDB Public health

IDB to Fund $156.3 Million for Cancer Hospitals in Turkmenistan

Turkmenportal reported that a Turkmenistan delegation visited Washington DC from October 22 to 26 to participate in the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, along with related events. During the visit, representatives of Turkmenistan's financial and banking sector engaged in bilateral discussions with foreign partners. According to the Saudi Press Agency, the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has approved $156.3 million in funding to build three specialized cancer treatment hospitals in Turkmenistan. These modern facilities will be located in Balkanabad, Turkmenabad, and Mari, with a combined capacity to serve over 11,750 patients. The agreement was signed in a meeting between IDB President Muhammad Al Jasser and Rahimberdi Jepbarov, Chairman of the State Bank for Foreign Economic Affairs of Turkmenistan. Meanwhile, on October 24, Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche, in partnership with Nobel Almaty Pharmaceutical Factory, launched the production of innovative drugs in Almaty, Kazakhstan. This initiative is part of an agreement between Roche, Kazakhstan’s SK-Pharmacy, Nobel, and the Kazakh Research Institute of Oncology and Radiology, supported by Kazakh Invest. Under this collaboration, Roche will locally produce three biotechnological drugs to treat HER2-positive breast cancer, a highly aggressive form affecting up to 20% of breast cancer patients in Kazakhstan.

Economy Economic Growth IMF

IMF: Uzbekistan’s Economy Is Growing, but Reforms and Stability Are Key

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the forecasts for Uzbekistan's economy are optimistic. The economy continues to grow actively; however, risks and opportunities remain. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and continuing to implement structural reforms is necessary to sustain high growth rates, restore buffer stocks, and protect against external shocks. The economy grew by 6.4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year. Due to an increase in energy prices in early May, overall inflation increased from 8% at the end of April to around 10.5% recently. The underlying inflation rate rose more moderately, reaching 7% in August, up by one percentage point since June. Remittances increased by 32% in the first seven months of 2024, and international reserves are still substantial, covering 9.5 months of imports as of August. Economic growth is expected to stay above 5.5% this year and next, driven by strong investments and reforms. Inflation is predicted to gradually decline due to tighter monetary and fiscal policies and the fading impact of energy price hikes. The current account deficit is expected to decrease to 6.25% of GDP in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025, supported by strong exports, remittances, and fewer large machinery imports. Risks include regional challenges, fluctuating commodity prices, a possible global slowdown, and issues with state-owned enterprises or partnerships. Opportunities may come from increased financial flows, remittances, and higher gold prices. The impact of energy price hikes in May 2024 and wage increases in September-October 2024 could lead to higher inflation. Experts recommend that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan keep interest rates high until there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing. The bank should also be prepared to raise rates further if inflation rises more than expected.

Economy Climate Change USAID Environmental Awareness Climate Emergency IMF Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Climate Crisis May Drastically Reduce Production in Central Asia

Central Asia may face serious economic losses due to climate change, which may reach a 6.5% annual decline in production by 2060. These figures were announced by Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at the “New Economic Challenges for Long-Term Development” forum. According to Bo, the Caucasus and Central Asia region is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Soaring temperatures and increasing frequency of droughts and floods are reducing crops, destroying infrastructure, and lowering living standards. “According to IMF estimates, if no action is taken to slow down climate change, Central Asia will lose up to 6.5% of its output annually by 2060,” Bo said. He noted that possible losses could be reduced with joint actions such as reducing carbon emissions, transitioning to a green economy, and adapting to changing climate conditions. As an example, Bo noted the efforts of Kyrgyzstan, that has already started to increase electricity tariffs and reduce energy subsidies, allowing the country to adapt to climate challenges and create new jobs in the “green” sector. Many Central Asian countries are taking steps to reform the energy sector and introduce “green” technologies. For example, Kazakhstan is actively cooperating with several countries to develop renewable energy and reform the energy sector. One key example is the partnership with the United States under the USAID Power Central Asia program. This initiative supports Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries in modernizing energy markets, introducing clean energy, and encouraging private investment in renewable energy. Uzbekistan is undergoing a major reform of its energy system to reduce subsidies and promote renewable energy. The country plans to increase the share of renewable energy to 25% by 2030, which includes solar and wind energy projects. These measures will help Uzbekistan improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In Tajikistan, USAID is implementing the Power Central Asia program, which supports energy cooperation in the region and encourages using renewable energy to help reduce dependence on fossil fuels and modernize energy systems.

Growth Forecasts IMF Economy Export/Import Investments

IMF Positive on Uzbekistan’s Progress

The International Monetary Fund held consultations with the authorities of Uzbekistan in Tashkent from April 23 to May 7, 2024. According to the results of the discussions, the organization delivered their official statement regarding the mission on May 14. According to the statement, the rate of growth of Uzbekistan’s economy remains high. Although the volume of remittances has returned to the trend of the period until 2022, the implementation of stimulative fiscal policies, a sharp increase in fixed capital investment and private consumption served to increase GDP in real terms by 6% in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, the growth rate remained high. Steady growth in real incomes and measures to expand the scope of the social protection system since 2020 helped reduce the poverty rate from 17% in 2021 to 11% in 2023. Headline inflation fell from 12.3% at the end of 2022 to 8% in March 2024 due to a relatively high real base rate and lower global food and energy prices. In 2023, the external current account deficit expanded to 8.6% of GDP from 3.5% in 2022. This increase was driven by a surge in imports of machinery and equipment (some of which is temporary), lower remittances compared to 2022, higher net interest payments on foreign debt, and repatriation of earnings by foreign-owned businesses. Despite buoyant gold exports, international reserves decreased by $1.2 billion in 2023, although they remain substantial, equivalent to about nine months of imports as of March 2024. The authorities’ strong reform efforts in energy, privatization, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to bolster economic prospects. Real GDP growth is expected to be robust at 5.4% in 2024, supported by strong domestic demand, and is projected to edge up to 5.5% in 2025. Ongoing fiscal adjustments, moderate bank lending growth, and the reversal of temporary import increases in 2023 are set to curb import growth and reduce the current account deficit this year and next. Inflation is expected to temporarily rise by the end of 2024 due to higher administered energy prices, but sustained tight macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies, alongside structural reforms, aim to lower it toward the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s target. However, risks remain elevated given the highly uncertain external environment. External risks include spillovers from an escalation of Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, commodity price volatility, and a sudden global economic downturn. Domestically, risks involve slower fiscal consolidation, weakened bank balance sheets, and potential liabilities from state banks, SOEs, and public-private partnerships (PPPs). Upside risks include acceleration of structural reforms, continued favorable inflows of income and capital, and higher gold prices. The authorities aim to join the World Trade Organization, which, along with enhanced trade cooperation and improved transport routes, would boost Uzbekistan’s exports. Closing gender gaps in labor force participation would increase inclusion, productivity, and GDP. Climate adaptation policies and incentives for green technology would mitigate vulnerabilities, de-carbonize the economy, and promote green growth. “The government should maintain momentum on anti-corruption efforts, building on sustained and significant improvements in governance...

Turkmenistan IMF Economic Growth

IMF Forecasts 2.3% Growth in Turkmenistan’s Economy

In her report on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to Turkmenistan, from 27 March – 9 April, Ms. Anna Bordon announced that Turkmenistan’s economy is set to expand by around at 2.3% in the coming year. According to the IMF mission’s assessment of the economic outlook and risks of Turkmenistan’s macroeconomic and financial developments, the country’s economic activity moderated in 2023 and inflation is on the rise. IMF staff estimate that post-pandemic growth surged to 5.3% in 2022 before falling to 2% in early 2023 as world commodity prices subsided, monetary policy tightened, and pressures on exchange rates abated. A temporary situation, inflation began to pick up later in 2023 and is projected to gradually rise to 8% mainly due to the country’s policy to increase public sector wages and pensions by 10% per year. “To improve spending efficiency, Turkmenistan should enhance its targeting of social spending, move toward public wage increases based on performance, and enhance public investment management,” said Ms Borden. The IMF estimates that growth of hydrocarbon production will stabilize at around 2%. In contrast, non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to remain subdued, given the challenging geopolitical and business environment, investment inefficiencies, the significant overvaluation of real exchange rates, and burdensome standards imposed by international regulations. The end of mission statement concluded: “The authorities are adequately focused on economic diversification. A more market-based economic diversification strategy would be preferable. Sustained macroeconomic stability is a pre-requisite for diversification, which importantly requires adjusting the exchange rate and eliminating exchange restrictions.” It was also recommended that Turkmenistan “gradually phase out administrative controls and reduce the footprint of the state in the economy”.