Middle Corridor - The Times Of Central Asia

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IPO

IPO as a Lifeline: Who Will Pay for Kazakhstan Railways’ Growing Debt?

The planned IPO of Kazakhstan’s national railway operator, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), once presented by the authorities as one of the largest public offerings in Central Asia, is increasingly being viewed as an attempt to stabilize the company’s balance sheet amid rapidly rising debt. The share sale, expected in late 2026, may turn out to be less a growth story than a mechanism for refinancing the obligations of the state-owned carrier. During parliamentary hearings on April 24, company executives acknowledged that one of the key objectives of the IPO is to raise funds to service KTZ’s growing debt burden. According to official company and government data, KTZ’s nominal debt has risen sharply. It stood at about $5.7 billion in early 2024, and roughly $8 billion by 2025. By April 2026, it had reached 4.7 trillion tenge, or about $10.4 billion. The increase reflects heavy borrowing for rolling stock, infrastructure modernization, and the expansion of Kazakhstan’s transit capacity, including projects linked to the Middle Corridor. It also reflects the cost of maintaining below-market tariffs for socially important domestic freight. Kazakhstan’s Supreme Audit Chamber warned as early as 2024 about risks related to the company’s financial sustainability. However, the authorities and KTZ management argue that large-scale borrowing was necessary to prevent an infrastructure crisis. According to official estimates, borrowed funds include about $4.9 billion for renewing rolling stock, including locomotives and railcars, and about $2.3 billion for modernizing railway infrastructure. The currency structure of the debt represents an additional vulnerability. More than half of the company’s obligations are denominated in foreign currencies, making KTZ highly sensitive to fluctuations in the tenge. Any weakening of the national currency automatically increases debt servicing costs and reduces the operator’s profitability. Potential investors face another challenge: historically, KTZ has served not only as a commercial company but also as an instrument of state social policy. A substantial share of revenues from China-Europe transit freight is used to subsidize unprofitable domestic passenger transport and the transportation of socially important goods within Kazakhstan. This cross-subsidization mechanism limits the company’s ability to generate free cash flow. Grain transportation under regulated tariffs alone generated losses of approximately $95 million (44 billion tenge) for KTZ in 2024. In an effort to improve the company’s attractiveness ahead of the IPO, KTZ has initiated large-scale tariff increases for mainline railway services. Beginning in April 2026, transportation tariffs for coal, grain, and iron ore were doubled. However, the move risks adding to costs in Kazakhstan, where railway tariffs directly affect the cost of food, electricity, and industrial goods. Annual inflation stood at 12.2% in January 2026, adding to concerns that higher railway tariffs could feed into wider price pressures. Additional inflationary pressure may come from the expiration of the government’s moratorium on utility tariff increases, after which household utility bills in some regions could rise by 10-20%. Against this backdrop, analysts do not rule out a return to tighter state regulation of tariffs, a development that could once again limit the ability of natural...

Middle Corridor

Opinion: A New Southern Gate – How the EU-Armenia Summit Unlocks a Critical Branch for the Middle Corridor

For the first time in its history, the European Union held a full summit with Armenia. The meeting, which took place in Yerevan on 4–5 May 2026, was not merely a diplomatic milestone for Armenia. It also sent a signal to governments thousands of kilometers away in Central Asia that the trade route linking Asia to Europe through the South Caucasus is becoming more real, and more politically backed, than ever before. The centerpiece of the summit saw the signing of a “Connectivity Partnership” between Brussels and Yerevan. The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, described Armenia as "uniquely positioned" to connect Europe with the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Under the EU's Global Gateway program, investments in Armenia are expected to reach €2.5 billion. A further €3 billion is earmarked specifically for the Middle Corridor – the trade route that runs from China across Central Asia, over the Caspian Sea, through the South Caucasus, and into Europe. “We will support your integration into key transport networks like the Trans-Caspian Corridor. It is a route that is also of strategic importance for Europe, given the growing flows of trade between our two regions,” von der Leyen stated. A Route That Is Already Moving Fast The Middle Corridor, formally known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), has grown at a pace that few predicted. Cargo volumes rose 70 percent in the first nine months of 2024 alone, reaching 3.4 million tons. By the end of that year, the total had climbed to 4.1 million tons – up from just 350,000 tons in 2021. The World Bank projects that the route could handle up to 11 million tonnes a year by 2030. It's important to maintain some perspective. These numbers are small fry when compared to the billions of tons of trade that moves between Europe and Asia by sea. However, the Middle Corridor does offer important diversification, particularly given the spillover effects of wars in the Middle East and piracy in the Red Sea. [caption id="attachment_48602" align="aligncenter" width="1274"] Image: Trans Caspian International Transport Route and it’s southern part, China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project. Source: middlecorridor.com[/caption] Where Uzbekistan Stands For Uzbekistan, the Middle Corridor is both an opportunity and a work in progress. In January 2025, President Mirziyoyev signed a decree to upgrade road and rail connectivity, and in September 2024, Tashkent co-founded the Eurasian Transport Route Association alongside Austria, Azerbaijan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkey. In December 2024, Uzbekistan sent its first block train all the way to Brazil – through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and the Georgian port of Poti – proving the route is operationally viable. But costs remain a challenge. Shipping a 40-foot container via the Middle Corridor currently costs between $3,500 and $4,500, compared to $2,800–$3,200 on the Northern Corridor through Russia. Europe, meanwhile, accounts for only around 3 percent of Uzbekistan's exports and 13 percent of its imports — a share that Tashkent wants to grow significantly. The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway — a $8 billion, 573-kilometre project whose...

Trans-Caspian Route

Kazakhstan to Develop Maritime Component of Trans-Caspian Transport Route

Kazakhstan’s national railway operator, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), is moving to build its own maritime fleet to expand the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). Also known as the Middle Corridor, the TITR is a multimodal transport corridor linking China and Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, offering an alternative to routes that pass through Russia. KTZ Express Shipping, a subsidiary of KTZ, has signed contracts for the construction of six general-purpose dry cargo container ships. Agreements have been concluded with China’s Jiangsu Haizhongzhou Shipping Industry Co., Ltd. for the construction of four vessels and with Azerbaijan’s Baku Shipyard for the construction of two. The vessels will be river-sea ships with a deadweight of up to 9,900 tons and a capacity of up to 537 TEUs, adapted for operations on both the Caspian and Black Sea routes. This is expected to support the integration of the maritime segment into the TITR’s multimodal logistics chain. The ships will be equipped with modern navigation systems in line with international requirements and environmental standards. Their safety, reliability, and environmental performance are expected to enhance their suitability for international routes and increase confidence among global shippers. The project is intended to give Kazakhstan a larger role in the TITR by establishing a sustainable maritime component of the route. Kazakhstan’s maritime transport sector has recorded steady growth in recent years. In 2025, maritime cargo volumes reached 8 million tons, a 7% increase compared to 2024. Container traffic through Kazakh seaports rose by 29% to 90,637 TEUs, while cargo volumes transported along the TITR increased by 36%. Under the country’s comprehensive maritime infrastructure development plan for 2024-2028, Kazakhstan intends to establish a major transport and logistics cluster based on the ports of Aktau and Kuryk. The plan includes expanding container handling capacity, developing cargo terminals and international shipping logistics, and reducing administrative barriers. By 2028, total cargo throughput at the ports is expected to increase by 50%, while container handling volumes are projected to triple. Plans are also in place to increase container traffic along the TITR, including the transit of 600 container trains from China through Kazakhstan this year. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, freight volumes transported along the Middle Corridor through Kazakhstan have grown more than five times over the past seven years, increasing from 0.8 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes annually.

Sergey Lavrov

Lavrov in Astana as Kazakhstan Prepares for Putin State Visit

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has visited Astana for talks with Kazakhstan’s leadership, as the two countries prepare for a planned state visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin in late May. Lavrov arrived in Kazakhstan on April 29. The main working part of the visit took place on April 30, with meetings with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the agenda covered political, trade, economic, cultural, and humanitarian ties, as well as cooperation in the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. At expanded talks in Astana, Kosherbayev said Russia remains one of Kazakhstan’s key trade partners. Bilateral trade exceeded $27 billion last year, and the two governments are working toward a target of $30 billion. Kosherbayev said the talks covered energy, transport, logistics, industry, digitalization, cultural ties, and international issues. The foreign ministers signed a cooperation plan between the two ministries for 2027-2028 during the visit. Kosherbayev said the plan reflected close coordination between Astana and Moscow on bilateral and international issues. The visit also comes ahead of Putin’s expected trip to Kazakhstan. The Kremlin said in February that Putin had confirmed his participation in the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Astana in late May and accepted Tokayev’s invitation to make a state visit linked to the event. For Kazakhstan, relations with Russia remain a central part of its multi-vector diplomacy, alongside growing ties with China, the European Union, Turkey, the Gulf states, and the United States. The two countries share a long border, have deep trade links, and work together through several regional organizations. Russia also remains central to Kazakhstan’s energy export network. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk handles roughly 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. That gives Astana a strong reason to keep stable ties with Moscow, but it also explains why Kazakhstan is pushing to diversify transport routes. The government has promoted the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, as a way to move freight between China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Europe with less reliance on Russian territory. The war in Ukraine has made that approach harder to sustain. Kazakhstan has kept ties with Moscow, but Tokayev has also stressed the importance of the UN Charter, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. In a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on August 10, 2025, Tokayev said Kazakhstan supported the UN Charter, the inviolability of sovereign borders, and the territorial integrity of sovereign states. Economic pressure has also grown. Western governments have increased scrutiny of trade routes that could be used to bypass sanctions on Russia. Kazakhstan has tried to protect its own trade from that pressure while avoiding a direct break with Moscow. Energy adds another dimension. Any disruption to the CPC route can quickly become a national economic issue for Kazakhstan. In April, Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said CPC exports through the Black Sea remained stable after Russia reported...

Middle Corridor

Middle Corridor Countries Approve 2026 Plan, Focus on Digitalization and Container Growth

On April 24, Astana hosted a meeting of the Board and General Assembly of the international association “Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.” The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, is a multimodal transport corridor linking China and Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, offering an alternative to routes that pass through Russia. The meetings were attended by representatives of TITR member countries, Kazakhstan, China, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, as well as participants from several European countries, including Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania, and international partners such as Singapore. The participating countries approved a detailed work plan for 2026, with a key focus on the digitalization of transport processes. Participants agreed to implement electronic document management using digital signatures and to establish direct data exchange between customs authorities and other stakeholders involved in cargo transportation. According to Kazakhstan's national rail company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), these measures are expected to reduce transit times and improve transparency along the route. The plan also envisages an increase in container traffic, including the transit of 600 container trains from China through Kazakhstan this year. Coordination between ports and terminals on the Caspian Sea will also be strengthened. Overall, the plan is aimed at reinforcing the TITR as a key transit corridor between Asia and Europe. In the first quarter of 2026, Kazakhstan recorded a significant increase in container train traffic along the TITR, underscoring the country’s growing role in Eurasian logistics. A total of 125 container trains transited through Kazakhstan via the corridor, marking a 34.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, freight volumes transported along the Middle Corridor through Kazakhstan have grown more than fivefold over the past seven years, increasing from 0.8 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes annually.

Middle Corridor

Kazakhstan Looks to Armenia for a Future Middle Corridor Branch

Kazakhstan’s deepening engagement with Armenia has made TRIPP, part of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace formula, a practical question for the Middle Corridor. The Armenia–U.S. implementation framework published in January presents the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) as a project for unimpeded, multimodal transit connectivity on Armenian territory. The means for its realization remain under discussion. TRIPP has thus become relevant to Kazakhstan, even though Astana is not a direct party to the prospective Armenia–Azerbaijan settlement. Recent Kazakhstani diplomacy with Baku and Tbilisi has confirmed that the existing Azerbaijan–Georgia route remains the operative western channel of the Middle Corridor. A route through Armenia would not replace the Azerbaijan–Georgia line; it would widen the Middle Corridor’s western options. If constructed, it would link the main body of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and open new transit opportunities from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe. Astana Brings Yerevan into the Route System Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Astana in November 2025. His talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized economic sectors, including trade, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, and air transport, together with humanitarian sectors such as education and culture. The official Armenian account also recorded the leaders’ interest in unblocking regional communications, importing wheat from Kazakhstan to Armenia by rail, and bringing TRIPP to life. Tokayev described the first shipment of Kazakhstani wheat reaching Armenia through Azerbaijan as having both political and economic significance. The cargo moved along existing lines, through Russia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Astana’s April 2026 Regional Ecological Summit showed the same regional widening from another angle: it brought Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia into a forum that connected environmental pressure with economic security and regional cooperation. The Kazakhstan–Armenia agenda has since become more specific. Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev visited Yerevan as part of an official delegation earlier this month. Kosherbayev’s presence gave the visit added weight, bringing recent cabinet experience and a record on politically sensitive regional issues rather than merely protocol standing. His talks with Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan on April 8 extended the discussion to a broader institutional basis, including the bilateral Intergovernmental Commission and the Kazakhstan–Armenia Business Council. The two parties agreed that transit and logistics interconnectivity create new opportunities for market integration between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The talks did more than raise the bilateral profile. They brought Armenia closer to the network already carrying Kazakhstan’s westbound trade. Regional connectivity received more detailed treatment on April 9, when Kosherbayev met with Pashinyan to discuss transport, transit, and trade within the 2026–2030 Roadmap for Trade and Economic Cooperation. Kosherbayev also reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s interest in long-term agricultural exports, especially grain and meat, and informed the Armenian side about measures to establish regular direct air connections. These meetings showed Astana and Yerevan moving toward the same practical premise: Armenia may become part of the wider route system. TRIPP Becomes a Middle Corridor Question Azerbaijan has completed infrastructure up to the Armenian border, but TRIPP has not yet begun construction through Armenia itself. It remains tied to the Armenia–Azerbaijan...