Nuclear Referendum - The Times Of Central Asia

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Kazakhstan’s Return to Nuclear Power: TCA in Association with American Foreign Policy Council Hosts Inaugural Burgut Expert Talk

On October 6 of this year, the people of Kazakhstan participated in a referendum to decide whether nuclear power should become a part of their daily lives, or whether the haunting legacy of atomic testing would continue to limit the country’s progress in this area. The official preliminary results, released on October 7, showed that 71.12% of participants agreed to the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan with a voter turnout of 63.66%. President Tokayev’s goal in holding a referendum was to ensure that arguments in favor of nuclear energy were compelling, and that citizens, scientists, and government officials were involved in the decision-making process. Tokayev has since suggested that an “international consortium made up of global companies equipped with cutting-edge technologies” should be involved in the project. In partnership with the American Foreign Policy Council, on October 30, 2024, The Times of Central Asia convened a virtual event to discuss what the referendum result means for energy security, geopolitics, and new business opportunities for both regional and global actors. Moderating this event was Mamuka Tsereteli, Senior Fellow for Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council, whilst the panel comprised Askar Alimzhanov, Senior Editor at The Times of Central Asia, Stephen M. Bland, Senior Editor and Head of Investigations at The Times of Central Asia, and James Walker, CEO and Head of Reactor Development at NANO Nuclear Energy. Focusing on a local perspective, Askar Alimzhanov told those in attendance that “Kazakhstan is in tough situation today regarding the issue of energy dependence. Because we have the largest nuclear test site in the world and during around 50 years there were just under 500 atomic tests, we all know about the possible consequence. As consumers, however, we’ve seen prices rise around 26% in one year. The population of the country is growing, so when we talk about the annual growth in energy consumption, this is a natural process. “Since the majority of voters have already made their decision, the main question which remains is who will build it? However, serious concerns persist within society including the fear of corruption, which can result in poor quality structures. As an example, we can talk about the light rail transportation network in Astana, which started in 2009 and still isn’t finished. The officials who stole the money, they still have those funds abroad.” [video width="1920" height="1080" mp4="https://timesca.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Burgut-Expert-Talk-Kazakhstans-Return-to-Nuclear-Power1.mp4"][/video] Speaking about energy dependence and geopolitical considerations, Stephen M. Bland noted that “Kazakhstan's energy landscape is characterized by a reliance on aging thermal power plants, which are increasingly unable to meet the demands of a growing population and economy, with electricity shortages projected to worsen, particularly in the rapidly developing southern regions. The construction of a nuclear power plant, therefore, is seen as a crucial step toward alleviating these shortages, reducing dependence on overpriced imports from Russia, and achieving carbon neutrality goals. “The construction of Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant presents both challenges and opportunities for the country's energy independence and regional influence. On one hand, developing a robust nuclear energy sector could...

Inside Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Play

Kazakhstan recently held a referendum in which approximately 71% of voters supported the initiative to construct the country's first nuclear power plant (NPP). This project is part of Kazakhstan's broader strategy to diversify its energy mix, reduce dependence on coal, and address chronic energy shortages that have affected the country for years. As the world's largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan has abundant natural resources that make nuclear power a viable and strategic option. The government views nuclear power as crucial for enhancing energy independence and security, while also contributing to environmental sustainability by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The goal is for nuclear energy to contribute about 5% of the national generation mix by 2035, marking a significant shift towards cleaner energy sources. A strategic opportunity for Kazakhstan The NPP project is expected to be undertaken by an international consortium, the members of which are yet to be selected. Kazakhstan's balanced multi-vector foreign policy encourages the involvement of various potential partners, such as Russia's Rosatom, China's National Nuclear Corporation, South Korea's Hydro & Nuclear Power, and France's EDF. Kazakhstan's strategy for involving an international consortium aims to reduce potential geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Russia's Rosatom. Rosatom is a key player in the nuclear energy sector, but Western sanctions against Russian companies raise concerns about its involvement in Kazakhstan's project. By involving multiple international partners, Kazakhstan aims to prevent overreliance on any single country, such as Russia, and maintain a diversified approach to foreign relations. This approach allows Kazakhstan to leverage advanced technologies from multiple sources, foster innovation, improve efficiency, and reduce risks associated with the NPP's construction and operation. It also ensures that the best practices from leading global enterprises can be integrated into the project, enhancing overall safety and performance. Moreover, the involvement of international partners is likely to facilitate knowledge transfer, enabling Kazakhstan to build domestic expertise in nuclear energy. The estimated cost for the NPP is between $10 and $12 billion, with the expectation that contractors will secure financing. An international consortium could attract investment from multiple sources, including their own countries, thereby reducing Kazakhstan's financial burden for the project, inculcating resilience against uncertainties such as currency fluctuations, and distributing the risks among several stakeholders. As sanctions against Rosatom and broader economic concerns make sole reliance on Russian intolerably risky, attracting investment from multiple international stakeholders will also enable Kazakhstan to spread financial risks, thus enhancing the project's viability. A key strategic opportunity for Kazakhstan is to develop self-sufficiency in uranium enrichment. As the world's largest producer of uranium, Kazakhstan has the potential to enrich its own yellowcake, i.e., impure uranium obtained by processing uranium ore. Developing this capability would reduce Kazakhstan's dependence on Russia for enriched uranium imports and significantly enhance its energy independence. Japan serves as a relevant model for this, as it enriches uranium domestically under international safeguards for civilian nuclear use. Kazakhstan could pursue a similar approach under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision, ensuring compliance with its non-proliferation commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation...

Russia China Atomic Energy Nuclear Energy public opinion NPP Nuclear Referendum Energy Security

Kazakhstan Enters Era of Peaceful Nuclear Energy

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's bet on a referendum to secure citizens' consent to construct a nuclear power plant has worked. The Central Election Commission of Kazakhstan announced the final results of the referendum held last Sunday, in which 63,66% of citizens eligible to vote showed up at the polling stations. 71.12 % answered “Yes” to the question on the ballot paper about consent to constructing the nuclear power plant. Organizations engaged in sociological surveys of voters at the exit polls announced similar results on Sunday night and Monday. “The exit poll of the Institute of Complex Social Studies - Astana (SOCIS-A) called the referendum participants' decision to favor the construction of nuclear power plants in Kazakhstan. 'For' voted 69.8%, ‘Against’ - 30.2%. Similar figures were shown by the Institute of Eurasian Integration exit poll ('For' - 71.8%, 'Against' - 28.2%). According to the Institute of Public Policy of the Amanat party, 72.3% of referendum participants voted in favor of the NPP construction. In comparison, 27.7% voted against,” Kazakhstani political analyst Eduard Poletayev said on his Facebook account. His colleague Daniyar Ashimbayev, commenting on the exit poll data, emphasized that Kazakhstanis have managed to overcome old phobias related to Chernobyl and tests at the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, as well as “enemy propaganda.” By 'propaganda', he means the agitation work of opponents to NPP construction. [caption id="attachment_24131" align="alignnone" width="300"] @ТСА/Kubaizhanov[/caption] “For many years, projects to return to nuclear energy were discussed, but there was always a lack of political will, and powerful foreign pressure prevented the decision necessary for the country. And even now, during the campaign period, we have seen the active work of propagandists paid from abroad to not only disrupt the plans for the construction of nuclear power plants but also to try to destabilize the situation in the country,” said Ashimbayev. Ashimbayev implies that the United States is putting sticks in the wheels of the development of Kazakhstan's nuclear industry. And the point here is not that American nuclear corporations were left off the shortlist, which Kazakhstan is considering, but in the usual policy of containment. Not Kazakhstan, of course, but Russia and China - Washington's main geopolitical rivals and competitors. Realizing this, Tokayev, after voting in the referendum and answering journalists' questions afterward, said that he would like the NPP to be built by an international consortium, presumably from the companies of those countries that were on the shortlist: Russia, China, South Korea, and France. “This is not an easy question. The government should engage in analysis and conduct appropriate negotiations. My vision for this issue is for an international consortium to work in Kazakhstan, consisting of global companies with the most advanced technologies. Further, as they say, life will show,” Tokayev said. Kazakhstan has turned another significant page in its history. In 400 days of discussing nuclear power plants - how long it took from when Tokayev first mentioned atomic power to the end of the campaign period - the president's team has managed the...

U.S. Ready to Participate in Construction of Nuclear Power Plant in Kazakhstan

The U.S. has expressed its willingness to participate in constructing a nuclear power plant (NPP) in Kazakhstan. Senior Vice President of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Khush Choksi made this statement during the visit of the U.S. business delegation to Almaty, Informburo.kz reports. “The U.S. has the best technologies for nuclear power plants. And we hope there will be an open tender, allowing American companies to participate,” said Choksi, answering journalists' questions. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the referendum on nuclear power in Kazakhstan was held on October 6. According to preliminary data, 71.12% of Kazakhstanis voted to build a nuclear power plant, but the official results have yet to be announced. Potential participants in constructing the nuclear power plant are also being discussed. Russia, China, France, South Korea, and France are among the countries that are considered suppliers of technologies for NPP construction. These states have proposed their projects, and the Kazakhstani authorities are considering them. It is expected that the winner may be an international consortium, and the final decision will be made based on technical and financial conditions. The preliminary cost of one NPP unit is estimated at $5 billion.

Kazakhstan Referendum Approves First Nuclear Power Plant

More than 71 percent of voters have approved the October 6 referendum for constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). Turnout was over 63 percent, easily surpassing the 50-percent barrier for validation. This result closely tracks the results of a telephone survey conducted by the Democracy Institute on September 30 and released by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies. That survey found 73 percent of those asked to favor construction of a nuclear power plant. It also found that 62 percent of respondents intended to vote, not far from the actual participation rate. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had announced the referendum initiative in a message to the public in September 2023. In that address, he emphasized that Kazakhstan, as the world's largest producer of uranium, should also have its own nuclear-power generation capabilities. Following this announcement, a series of meetings between representatives of various government agencies and the public were organized across all regions of the country. During these meetings, the plans for constructing an NPP were discussed in detail, with an emphasis on the potential benefits of nuclear energy for Kazakhstan’s energy independence. Kazakhstan has held a significant position in the global nuclear-energy market since the late 2000s, accounting for approximately 40 percent of global uranium production. Despite this advantageous position, the country faces severe electricity shortages, which are projected to worsen by 2025, especially in the rapidly growing southern regions. Reliance on aging thermal power plants, many of which are equipped with components that have been in service for over 50 years, has only exacerbated the problem. Frequent energy shortages in multiple regions have left citizens without heat during harsh winter conditions, often with temperatures dropping well below zero. The proposed site for the nuclear power plant is in Ulken, located in the Almaty region. The shortlist of potential builders for the NPP includes companies from China, South Korea, Russia, France, and the United States. The inclusion of companies from multiple countries is aimed at ensuring competitive bidding and securing the best possible technology for the project. Tokayev has indicated a personal preference for an “international consortium made up of global companies equipped with cutting-edge technologies.” Developing an NPP will help the country to achieve energy independence and meet carbon-neutrality goals. Without an NPP, rolling blackouts will be necessary and dependence on electricity imports from Russia will continue. However, the legacy of the Semipalatinsk test site looms large, creating a challenging decision for Kazakh citizens. Kazakhstan's nuclear history spans from Soviet-era testing to present-day energy challenges. The Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, established in 1947, was where the Soviet Union conducted over 468 nuclear tests, leaving long-lasting environmental and health impacts on the local population. The fallout from these tests has burdened the national health-care system for decades, exacerbated by nuclear fallout from Chinese testing at Lop Nor. In response to these consequences, then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev closed the Semipalatinsk site in 1991, and by 1994, Kazakhstan had relinquished its nuclear arsenal and became a non-nuclear state. Nazarbayev’s rise to power...

Referendum for Nuclear Power in Kazakhstan Passes

Kazakhstan's nuclear energy referendum on October 6 passed with a 71.12 % majority, marking a pivotal shift in the country's energy strategy. The nation has faced significant challenges with an aging energy infrastructure and a reliance on Russia to fill the gaps. The decision comes with historical sensitivities as Kazakhstan continues to grapple with the legacy of Soviet-era nuclear tests that caused widespread harm. The referendum offered citizens a direct voice in shaping their energy future, reflecting both the urgency of addressing the country’s current needs and the deep-seated concerns over nuclear safety. On the referendum ballot, Kazakhstanis were asked, “Do you agree to the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan?”. The voter turnout was high, according to the Central Referendum Commission, with 7,820,918 Kazakhstan citizens receiving ballots, amounting to a 63.87% voter turnout. The voter turnout for the referendum on the new constitution in Kazakhstan, held on June 5, 2022, was similarly high at 68.44%. As the world's largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan is well-positioned to leverage its rich resources to transition towards more sustainable energy solutions. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emphasized the critical importance of nuclear energy, not only in meeting the immediate electricity needs amidst frequent power outages but also in aligning with global environmental commitments. At the Convention on Climate Change (COP28) held in Dubai on December 1, 2023, Tokayev made a Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030. The nuclear power plant is expected to reduce Kazakhstan's reliance on fossil fuels, thus decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. Uzbekistan has already begun construction of a nuclear power plant 55km from the Kazakhstan border. Kyrgyzstan may also build a nuclear power plant in the Chui region, which is less than 300km south of the planned Kazakhstani plant in Ulken on Lake Balkash. International observers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) have all affirmed that the recent referendum was conducted in accordance with current legislation, describing it as open, free, and legitimate. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko noted the participation of over 200 foreign journalists during the referendum, underscoring the transparency and openness of the voting process. Radio Free Europe, through its affiliate Azattyk, was critical of the referendum. An incident of ballot stuffing at a Turkestan poll station was reported, as were accessibility issues for the disabled voters in the Uralsk region. One observer witnessed a suspicious busload of voters in Turkestan. RFE correspondents reported difficulty in getting voter turnout results throughout the afternoon at a station in Karganda and Aktobe. With that in mind, the irregularities seem to be few and far between overall: The League of Young Voters, a vigilant group of local observers, identified a total of 20 technical violations across the country’s 10,249 polling stations. The referendum day proceeded without significant issues, shifting attention to Kazakhstan's urgent energy shortfalls. With the nuclear power plant expected to be operational in 2034,...