Our People > Yevgeny Rakhimzhanov

Yevgeny Rakhimzhanov

Journalist

Yevgeny Rakhimzhanov is a journalist from Kazakhstan who lives in Almaty. He has worked in leading national media and headed several national media projects. His articles have appeared in many publications both at home and abroad.

Articles

Military training

Kazakhstan Military Training Overhauled with New Drone Forces Planned

Less than a month after 14 service members died during military exercises in the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan has approved plans to overhaul conscript training and introduce new safeguards against abuse in the armed forces. The reform plan was approved at a Security Council meeting on October 21, with the main changes scheduled for 2027. The September 24 tragedy prompted an investigation that uncovered serious failures in the planning of the exercises and measures to protect soldiers. A wider inspection of the Defense Ministry has since led to 13 criminal cases involving suspected embezzlement, abuse of authority, and other violations. New Training System Aims to Reduce Abuse Beginning in 2027, Kazakhstan plans to divide its mandatory 12-month military service into two stages. Recruits will spend their first six months at training centers and the remaining six months in military units, where they will continue combat training alongside their assigned formations. The change is intended to help conscripts adjust to military life and reduce the risk of hazing. Political analyst Gaziz Abishev believes that separating initial training from regular military service will make it easier for commanders to monitor abuse. “Amid the chaos of a regular military unit, it's much harder to keep track of abusive behavior by people who are out of control. It will be easier at a training center. Officers will be personally accountable for the safety of conscripts,” he wrote on Telegram. The military also plans to appoint military counselors and an ombudsman for service members. The aim is to give soldiers and their families somewhere to turn when their rights are violated. Askhat Aimagambetov, a member of Kazakhstan's parliament, the Kurultai, welcomed the initiative, citing cases of violations of service members' rights and the difficulties their relatives have faced in seeking justice. “Now service members and their parents will have a direct, legally recognized advocate,” the lawmaker said. A New Drone Force The plan also calls for the establishment of dedicated drone forces and an expansion of the network of specialized military schools.. The move reflects the growing importance of unmanned aircraft in modern warfare, demonstrated particularly by the war in Ukraine, where relatively inexpensive drones have proved capable of destroying far more costly military equipment. Organizational preparations are expected to be completed by the end of 2026, with the main reforms planned for 2027. The wider inspection of the Defense Ministry is also due to be completed by the end of the year. Although preliminary findings have exposed serious failings, the commission's full conclusions have yet to be published. Kazakhstan's Military Capabilities in Central Asia Kazakhstan ranks 58th among 145 countries in the 2026 Global Firepower ranking, behind Uzbekistan, which holds 53rd place. Turkmenistan ranks 78th, Tajikistan 100th, and Kyrgyzstan 109th. According to Global Firepower estimates, Kazakhstan's defense budget for 2026 is approximately $5.84 billion, compared with around $6.21 billion for Uzbekistan.

12 hours ago

Tobacco

Kazakhstan Vape Ban Faces a Test Under Eurasian Economic Union Rules

Kazakhstan banned vapes two years ago, but anti-tobacco organizations now fear that new rules being developed by the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) could allow them back onto the market. Public health advocates have appealed to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, accusing the government's economic officials of attempting to weaken the restrictions. Undermining Prohibition? Since June 2024, Kazakhstan has prohibited the production, import, and sale of electronic cigarettes, vaping liquids, and certain smokeless tobacco products. This includes snus, a form of tobacco placed under the upper lip. Violations can result in criminal prosecution. The EAEU, which comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, is developing a common technical regulation for nicotine-containing products allowing manufacturers to operate under common standards across several national markets. The Coalition for a Smoke-Free Kazakhstan argues that the regulation, being developed at Armenia's initiative, could create a legal basis for resuming trade in products currently banned in Kazakhstan. However, a version of the proposed draft prepared by Russia's Agriculture Ministry in November 2025 explicitly states that products cannot be placed on the market in EAEU member states where their circulation is prohibited under national law. Compliance with common technical standards would therefore not, by itself, authorize vape sales in Kazakhstan. It remains unclear whether this provision has been retained in the text currently under negotiation. A Boon for the Treasury The coalition also accused Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin of pressuring the Ministry of Health. According to the activists, he has been pushing for approval of the regulation despite the ministry's objections. In July, Zhumangarin met with executives from Philip Morris International, a multinational tobacco company with manufacturing operations in Kazakhstan. According to the government, the deputy prime minister supported common EAEU rules that would take national legislation and public health commitments into account. The company presented plans to establish a laboratory in Kazakhstan to test nicotine-containing products, with the facility also intended to serve markets in other countries. The tobacco industry generates substantial revenue for Kazakhstan's budget. In 2025, excise taxes on tobacco products totaled 330.7 billion tenge (approximately $735 million). During the first three months of 2026, Kazakhstan exported $42.5 million worth of cigarettes. The Hookah Lobby In spring 2026, Kazakhstan also debated relaxing its anti-tobacco legislation by allowing hookah smoking in licensed restaurants and other food-service establishments. Hookah smoking has been prohibited in enclosed public places since 2020. Supporters of legalization argued that the restrictions had driven the hookah business underground. According to their estimates, approximately 22,000 establishments offer hookahs. They projected that licensing would generate more than 16 billion tenge annually (approximately $35.5 million) in government revenue. The anti-tobacco coalition opposed the proposal. Its leader, Jamilya Sadykova, warned that licensing would effectively legalize tobacco use in places where the government is supposed to protect customers and employees from smoke exposure. In August, the World Health Organization supported maintaining the existing ban. Nevertheless, hookahs continue to be offered in cafes and specialized establishments, and customers are periodically fined during police raids....

13 hours ago

Trans-Caspian Cable

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan Launch Trans-Caspian Fiber-Optic Cable

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have launched the first fiber-optic communications link across the Caspian seabed. The approximately 380-kilometer cable connects Aktau and Sumgait, with Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Ilham Aliyev inaugurating the line in Baku on October 15. Russian operators have long dominated Kazakhstan’s international connectivity. A 2025 Internet Society report identified them as the country's principal suppliers of international bandwidth. The new route will give operators the option of directing data through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey toward Europe, providing redundancy independent of existing routes through Russia. This is particularly important during outages or congestion on existing connections. Part of the broader Digital Silk Way initiative, the cable could also benefit Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, both of which rely on Kazakhstan for international internet connectivity. The cable, supplied by a Chinese manufacturer, uses optical fiber made in Japan and terminal equipment from Western suppliers, according to the Caspian Policy Center. It has a design capacity of at least 400 terabits per second and was developed through CaspiLink, a joint venture between Kazakhstan’s Kazakhtelecom and Azerbaijan’s AzerTelecom. The project had been under discussion since 2019. In 2024, planned investment was estimated at more than 23 billion tenge (approximately $50 million). Marine surveys began in August 2025. Underwater cable laying began in July 2026 and was completed on August 5, with the line inaugurated on October 15. Kazakhstan also hopes to use the new connection to attract technology companies. Bagdat Mussin, chairman of Kazakhtelecom’s management board, said the cable could support Kazakhstan’s Data Center Valley, a complex under development in Ekibastuz for cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Mussin also told reporters that adjustments to the line would continue through the end of 2026, with the benefits expected to be felt no earlier than early 2027, according to Tengrinews. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Kazakhstan must also secure reliable electricity supplies and sufficient demand for its planned data center capacity. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development estimates that the new route could help more than double the country's international data transit to 21.6 Tbps in the coming years. How much traffic will initially use the cable, including traffic redirected from existing routes through Russia, remains unclear.

7 days ago

political parties

Tokayev Dissolves Kazakhstan Local Councils Ruling Party Merger

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree on October 12 terminating the powers of maslikhats, the country’s local representative assemblies. Snap elections must now be held by December 12. The move follows a decision in June 2026 to merge the Amanat party into the newly established pro-presidential Adilet party, which won August’s parliamentary elections. Most incumbent local deputies, however, were elected in 2023 under the Amanat banner, raising questions about their mandates as the party is absorbed into Adilet. Why Questions About Legitimacy Arose Tokayev first raised the prospect of early elections on September 24, speaking at the inaugural session of the Halyq Kenesi, or People’s Council of Kazakhstan. “The overwhelming majority of maslikhat deputies were elected from the Amanat party. That party no longer operates independently, having merged with the Adilet party,” Tokayev explained. He said the merger would soon raise questions about the legitimacy of much of the country’s local representative bodies once the legal procedures were completed. Under Kazakh law, deputies can lose their seats if the party through which they were elected ceases to exist. However, the decision to merge the parties did not, by itself, end their mandates. From Nur Otan to Adilet Amanat was previously known as Nur Otan and had been the main political support base of Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Founded in 1999, the party underwent several name changes. The most recent came in March 2022, following the January unrest, when mass protests escalated into the largest political crisis in Kazakhstan’s post-independence history. Amanat voted on June 12 to join Adilet, which approved the merger two days later. The new organization inherited its regional branches, administrative apparatus, and extensive network of activists. Adilet itself had been registered only on June 1, just weeks before the merger. Adilet was headed by Aibek Dadebay, who had previously led President Tokayev’s administration. Following the August parliamentary elections, he became chairman of the Kurultai, Kazakhstan’s new unicameral parliament. In the August 23 elections, Adilet won 71.17% of the vote and 110 of the 145 parliamentary seats. Four other parties crossed the 5% electoral threshold but secured only 35 seats between them. Maslikhats and the New Parliamentary System Maslikhats are elected at the regional, city, and district levels. They approve local budgets, review territorial development programs, and hear reports from executive officials. In cases provided for by law, deputies may initiate a vote of no confidence in an akim, the head of a local administration. Kazakhstan, however, remains a unitary state with a strong presidential chain of command. The heads of regions and major cities are appointed by the president. Following constitutional reform, the Senate and Mazhilis were replaced by the unicameral Kurultai. On October 7, its deputies voted to establish a Council for Cooperation with Maslikhats. According to deputy Amirbek Ospanbekov, local representative bodies work directly with residents, understand regional conditions, and encounter the practical consequences of laws passed by parliament. The council is expected to involve maslikhat representatives in drafting legislation and gathering information...

1 week ago

Election Campaign

Kyrgyzstan Presidential Election: What Has Changed Since 2020?

Kyrgyzstan’s presidential election is scheduled for January 27, 2027, with candidate nominations already open. Sadyr Japarov intends to run for a second term, but the political landscape bears little resemblance to the situation six years ago, when he came to power following the protests of October 2020. Since then, Kyrgyzstan has shifted from a parliamentary to a presidential model, rewritten its election rules, and changed its media legislation. Japarov’s political alliance with Kamchybek Tashiyev, the former chief of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), has collapsed. Tashiyev, until recently considered a possible successor to the president, has been convicted and remains under three years of probation supervision. Several other prominent politicians are facing criminal cases, while rallies in central Bishkek have been restricted. The Jogorku Kenesh, the national parliament, has scheduled the vote for a Wednesday rather than the traditional Sunday. The election law was changed twice: first, the vote was moved from autumn 2026 to January 2027, and then election day was moved from the fourth Sunday to the fourth Wednesday of January. “I intend to run for another term and continue my work,” Japarov said in an August 13 interview with investigative journalist Ali Toktakunov. Japarov’s right to run again required a separate interpretation by the Constitutional Court. In 2021, he won under the previous Constitution, which provided for a single six-year presidential term. A few months later, a new Constitution shortened the term to five years but allowed a president to hold office twice. In February, the Constitutional Court preserved the original six-year duration of Japarov’s current term, while ruling that he would continue exercising his powers under the 2021 Constitution. It also held that his current six-year mandate counts as his first term under the new two-term limit, allowing Japarov to run again. From Successor to Defendant A year ago, any discussion of the election inevitably led to Tashiyev. Japarov’s longtime ally headed the GKNB and was the country’s second center of political influence. Japarov later said that he had originally planned to step down after his first term and support Tashiyev. “Kamchy would become president, and I would retire. That was my plan,” he said in the interview with Toktakunov. That scenario collapsed after a group of 75 former officials, politicians, and public figures published an open letter on February 9 calling for an early presidential election. The following day, Japarov dismissed Tashiyev as head of the GKNB. A criminal case and trial followed. In July, Tashiyev and seven other defendants were found guilty of preparing to seize power by force. In September, the Bishkek City Court removed that charge and reclassified the case as obstruction of electoral rights. Under the current election law, people with a criminal conviction, including one that has later been expunged, are barred from being elected president. Tashiyev therefore cannot take part unless his conviction is overturned. Among other contenders, former acting Interior Minister and Batken regional governor Omurbek Suvanaliev has announced his intention to run. He has spoken...

2 weeks ago

Military Deaths

Kazakhstan Defense Ministry Inspection Leads to 13 Criminal Cases in Wake of Soldiers’ Deaths

A comprehensive inspection of Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry has resulted in 13 criminal cases involving suspected theft of state property, abuse of office, and other violations. The inspection follows the deaths of 14 servicemen during military exercises in the Caspian Sea on September 24. On October 5, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev heard the inspection's initial findings. The commission found serious shortcomings in the preparation and planning of the exercises, risk assessment, organization of the landing operation, and measures to ensure the servicemen’s safety. Criminal cases also concern hazing and violence against servicemen. The tragedy was followed by a reshuffle at the top of the defense establishment. On September 27, Aidos Myrzakhmetov became defense minister, replacing Dauren Kosanov, who was dismissed the same day. Myrzakhmetov had spent much of his career in the State Guard Service, the agency responsible for protecting the president and other designated officials. On October 3, Tokayev dismissed First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Kanysh Abubakirov, Deputy Defense Minister Almaz Dzhumakeyev, and Navy Commander-in-Chief Kanat Niyazbekov. On October 5, another former senior State Guard Service officer, Aitkurman Omarbekov, was appointed First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff. Former navy commander Kanat Niyazbekov was detained on October 6 on suspicion of negligence in connection with the deaths, with a court authorizing his arrest, according to the Interior Ministry. But the president did not stop at personnel changes. Following the deaths of the marines, he ordered the preparation of a Military Reform Plan and delivered one of his harshest public assessments of the armed forces in years. “Our army is stuck in the last century… the command system must be completely rebuilt in line with advanced international practice,” Tokayev said on September 27. He described the deaths of servicemen in peacetime as the result of what he called “essentially criminal unprofessionalism by officers, including generals.” Public Anger After the Caspian Tragedy Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev wrote that the deaths of the servicemen in the Mangystau region triggered “a very strong and emotional reaction in the country,” amplified by what he called the “traditionally clumsy actions” of the military bureaucracy. “Rumors, gossip, fakes, and openly provocative content quickly began to emerge. Nor should we forget that the emergency occurred in the most difficult region,” he wrote, referring to the history of protests in oil-producing Mangystau. The public reaction was particularly intense because of the circumstances surrounding the soldiers’ deaths. The Khazar Qorgany 2026 exercises were taking place in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. During a training mission, 17 servicemen were swept out to sea; three were rescued. For some of those who died, these were the final days of their compulsory military service. Deputy Navy Commander Arman Satkanov said some had as little as eight days left before returning home, with their tickets already purchased. Five members of the military command were detained on September 25 on suspicion of negligence and violations of navigation rules. They included the Navy chief of staff and first...

2 weeks ago

religious freedom

Why Central Asian Governments Are Regulating Religious Life

Kyrgyzstan is requiring bloggers and other social media users who publicly preach religion online to obtain a special certificate. The website of the National Agency for Religious Affairs and Interethnic Relations includes an application form for registration as a “religious preacher.” Nurgazy Kyrgyzbaev, a chief specialist at the agency, announced the measure on local radio. He said the requirement stems from the country’s new religion law, which introduced the legal category of “religious preacher.” “People who want to publicly call others to religion must obtain a special certificate. Their religious education will be considered first and foremost. Recently, people have appeared online who call themselves bloggers and create religious content,” Kyrgyzbaev said, adding that their religious qualifications had previously gone unchecked. This, he argued, created a risk of inaccurate or misleading religious information being spread. Under the new system, applicants must have higher or secondary religious education and obtain the consent of the relevant central religious authority before registering with the agency. For Muslim applicants, this means approval from the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kyrgyzstan, or Muftiate. Kyrgyzbaev said Muftiate employees engaged in preaching are automatically treated as religious preachers. Kyrgyzstan has traditionally allowed greater religious diversity than most of its Central Asian neighbors, including a wider range of Islamic movements. It remains the only country in the region where Tablighi Jamaat and the Nurcular movement can operate legally. Tablighi Jamaat, for example, is banned as extremist in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Religious Freedom Concerns Across the Region Central Asia has long attracted criticism from international religious-freedom monitors. In its 2026 annual report, the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) recommended that the U.S. State Department place Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan on its Special Watch List for severe violations of religious freedom. It recommended that Tajikistan and Turkmenistan be designated Countries of Particular Concern, a higher category reserved under U.S. law for governments accused of particularly severe violations. According to USCIRF, Tajik authorities continued to use the country’s law on traditions and ceremonies to regulate religious life, including through fines and public campaigns. After amendments adopted in 2024 prohibited the import, sale, promotion, and wearing of clothing deemed “alien to national culture,” authorities also campaigned against what they described as foreign styles of dress. USCIRF and other religious-freedom monitors have reported even tighter state control in Turkmenistan, where religious activity outside officially approved structures remains heavily restricted. Reports have described pressure on religious leaders to provide information to the authorities about believers practicing outside state-sanctioned forms of Islam. USCIRF has argued that Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, like other Central Asian states, apply extremism laws to religious practices that involve neither violence nor incitement. Religion Moves Online in Kazakhstan In Kazakhstan, as in Kyrgyzstan, mosques are no longer necessarily the primary source of religious knowledge for younger people. At independence in 1991, Kazakhstan had only 68 mosques. The Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kazakhstan reported 2,945 functioning mosques at the beginning of 2026. The expansion reflects the extraordinary revival of...

3 weeks ago

Military Procurement

Why Central Asia Is Diversifying Its Arms Suppliers

India could become another supplier of major weapons to Central Asia. Indian Masterminds reported in July that Samir V. Kamat, former chairman of India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), said India had exported Akash surface-to-air missile systems to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The reported deliveries remain unconfirmed by the recipient governments. Publicly available accounts give no contract values, quantities, or delivery schedules. DRDO says an initial Akash battery has been flagged off for export to friendly foreign countries, without naming the recipients. Akash is a mobile medium-range surface-to-air missile system designed to counter aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones. If the reported deliveries are confirmed, they would mark the first publicly known Akash exports to Central Asia following India’s deal with Armenia. The region’s armed forces still rely heavily on Soviet- and Russian-designed equipment, but governments are increasingly buying newer systems from other suppliers. Russia retains a strong position where countries need to maintain Soviet- and Russian-designed equipment already in service. Other suppliers are winning orders for drones and aircraft, extending their role in the region’s defense procurement. The figures illustrate the persistence of Russian influence. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia accounted for 83% of Kazakhstan’s imports of major arms in 2021–25. These figures measure transfers of major weapons, rather than the full range of military supplies and support. Russia’s exports of major arms, however, fell by 64% in 2021–25 compared with the previous five-year period. Nearly three-quarters of its exports went to India, China, and Belarus. SIPRI attributes much of the fall to reduced deliveries to Algeria, China, and Egypt. The most visible shift has occurred in Uzbekistan. In late August, official footage showed Chinese-built J-10CE fighter jets carrying Uzbek markings. At least six aircraft could be seen. For three decades, Soviet-designed MiG-29s and Su-27s formed the backbone of Uzbekistan’s fighter fleet. Operating the J-10CE requires different training and maintenance arrangements, alongside compatible weapons and ground equipment. The transition moves a key component of the Uzbek Air Force outside its traditional supply chain. On September 25, Brazil’s Embraer delivered the first C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft to the Uzbek Air Force. The handover ceremony took place at the company’s facility in Gavião Peixoto, making Uzbekistan the first C-390 operator in Central Asia. The late-2024 contract includes training to operate the aircraft and covers its upkeep with technical support and spare parts. The aircraft can carry payloads of up to 26 metric tons and can be configured for troop and cargo transport, aerial refueling, medical evacuation, and search-and-rescue missions. Kazakhstan’s military has put Turkish Aerospace Industries’ ANKA drone into service after military trials. In its review of 2024, Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry reported discussions with Baykar, another Turkish drone maker, on a roadmap for local production of tactical drones and loitering munitions. The latter can remain airborne while searching for a target before striking it. The same review said the Turkish side had offered to provide Bayraktar Kalkan and Bayraktar Mini reconnaissance drones, along with the...

3 weeks ago

Saida Mirziyoyeva

Opinion: Why Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration Was Given Sweeping Powers and Broad Immunity

Saida Mirziyoyeva, the 41-year-old daughter of Uzbekistan’s president who has headed his administration since 2025, is taking an increasingly active role on the international stage. She participated in the 15th United Nations Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice in Abu Dhabi, and was received by UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. During the meeting, the two sides discussed further expansion of cooperation between Uzbekistan and the United Arab Emirates. Combined with the law on Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration adopted in August, Mirziyoyeva’s growing international profile raises a broader question: how far could her political influence extend? A New Legal Framework The Constitutional Law on the Administration of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, approved by the Senate on August 7 and signed by Shavkat Mirziyoyev a week later, on August 14, followed closely on the heels of a constitutional amendment establishing that the administration’s legal status and powers should be defined by law. Officially, the legislation was drafted to implement Article 109 of Uzbekistan’s Constitution. The article states that the president forms an administration and appoints its head to provide organizational, legal, and analytical support for the exercise of presidential powers. An amendment that took effect on July 25 added that the legal status, main tasks, organization, and powers of the Presidential Administration are to be determined by law. Saida Mirziyoyeva had been appointed head of her father’s administration in June 2025. When the bill, consisting of four chapters and 34 articles, was presented in the lower house of parliament, lawmakers said the experience of a number of countries had been studied. They included Turkmenistan and Taiwan, as well as Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Latvia, the United States, and Kazakhstan. Lawmakers cited these countries’ arrangements for regulating presidential administrations, offices, or chancelleries. The Uzbek law combines substantial administrative and coordinating authority with extensive immunity provisions for senior Presidential Administration personnel. Powers of a “Successor”? Under the new law, the head of Uzbekistan’s Presidential Administration has the authority to: introduce or eliminate additional staff positions and create or abolish project offices responsible for developing individual sectors and industries; coordinate and oversee administrative reforms in national and local executive bodies and submit proposals to the president on improving public administration; facilitate the introduction of key performance indicator systems in government bodies; appoint and dismiss certain officials of government bodies and organizations; create or abolish compliance units in government agencies, as well as positions for deputy heads or advisers responsible for compliance and internal anti-corruption controls. The head of the administration may also hire independent advisers on a contractual basis. Under the law, the head of the Presidential Administration also becomes deputy chair of the Security Council under the president and organizes and coordinates the activities of its members. Some Uzbek opposition figures, most of whom live and work abroad, see Mirziyoyeva’s expanded powers as adding weight to speculation that the president may be preparing his daughter as a possible successor. “She was already de facto the No....

4 weeks ago

Oil logistics

Kazakhstan’s Oil Logistics Trap: Higher Prices, Limited Gains

Escalation in the Middle East has pushed oil back above $100 a barrel. For Kazakhstan, whose budget remains heavily dependent on commodity exports, that should have been good news. But a high price matters only if the oil can reach buyers. For the world’s largest landlocked country, that is where the problem begins. European refiners are looking for alternatives to disrupted Saudi supplies, while problems along established routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are increasing demand for crude from other regions. More than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, however, move through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system across Russian territory to a terminal near Novorossiysk. The Middle East crisis is pushing prices and global freight costs higher, while attacks around Russian infrastructure are increasing the risks to Kazakhstan’s main export route. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan has significantly increased its oil exports. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, volumes rose from 63.6 million metric tons in 2015 to a record 76.3 million tons in 2025, an increase of about 20%. Exports grew from 65.2 million tons in 2022 to 71 million in 2024 and 76.3 million tons in 2025. Expansion at the Tengiz field contributed to that growth. Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production reached 99.6 million tons in 2025. The government had planned for about 98 million tons in 2026, but export disruptions have already forced temporary output cuts. Revenue has not risen as steadily as volumes. “In monetary terms, growth over the past decade was considerably stronger, although the trend, as noted above, was also much more volatile. The value of exports increased from $26.8 billion in 2015 to $40 billion in 2025, or by 49.3%. The highest figure during this period was recorded in 2022, at $46.9 billion,” Ranking.kz said in its analysis. Physical volumes and export revenue have often moved in different directions. “This was particularly evident in 2025: Kazakhstan exported 7.4% more oil than a year earlier, but its value fell by 6.8%. The average estimated value of one exported metric ton declined from $604 in 2024 to $524 in 2025,” the analysts calculated. In the first half of 2026, Kazakhstan exported $40.3 billion worth of goods. Crude oil and petroleum products accounted for 46.5% of the total. Export statistics and transportation data measure different things. The Bureau of National Statistics records goods cleared for export, while the Energy Ministry and pipeline companies report volumes pumped, transshipped, and transported. The same cargo can pass through several sections of the system, so those figures cannot simply be added together. In March, Talgat Makuov, acting director of the Energy Ministry’s oil refining and transportation department, said 64.8 million tons of Kazakh oil had moved through CPC in 2025. Another 9.2 million tons went through the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, while 1.1 million tons were shipped through the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline toward China. Against those volumes, the Trans-Caspian route remains small. In 2025, 1.26 million tons were shipped across the Caspian toward the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. The plan...

1 month ago

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