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War in Ukraine

Ending the War: Tokayev and Zelenskyy Talk Ahead of Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska

“A bad peace is better than a good war.” That was the advice from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call on Sunday in which the two leaders discussed prospects for a resolution to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Whether Zelenskyy agreed with Tokayev’s comment is open to question. In a readout of the conversation from the Ukrainian presidency, he used other adjectives to describe the kind of peace that Ukraine wants –“reliable” and “real.” The talk happened ahead of a meeting in Alaska on Friday between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine fears could leave it left out of deliberations and provide momentum for an end to the conflict on Russia’s terms. Tokayev told Zelenskyy that Kazakhstan has advocated for a solution that adheres to the United Nations Charter and respects “the inviolability of the borders of sovereign states, and the territorial integrity of sovereign states.” While that statement implies criticism of the current state of affairs, in which Russia occupies an estimated 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, Tokayev also appeared to suggest that Ukraine should be prepared to make difficult compromises over territory because its independence as a nation was on the line. “In his view, given the current highly complex situation, it is essential to approach the resolution of the conflict with balance and reason, ensuring the preservation and protection of Ukraine’s statehood,” Kazakhstan’s presidential office said. “He stressed that all parties should be guided by the wisdom that ´a bad peace is better than a good war.´” Tokayev stirred some debate last year when he said that Russia was too strong to be defeated on the battlefield. Critics interpreted the remark as defeatism in the face of Russian aggression, while others thought it was a blunt assessment of the war. Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries have tried to be neutral in the conflict, not endorsing the Russian invasion but maintaining traditional ties with Moscow. The Ukrainian presidency said Zelenskyy, in remarks to Tokayev, “noted that attempts to partition any independent state are extremely dangerous for every nation. History has repeatedly shown that if such injustice is allowed against one state, it does not end there.” While Zelenskyy has ruled out territorial concessions to Russia, a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in May and June explored the nuance of the topic in a population that is both defiant and weary after years of war. The results show that “the only option where there is at least room for discussion is de facto recognition of Russian control without de jure recognition,” according to the institute. Zelenskyy invited Tokayev to visit Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian presidency. The Kazakh statement didn’t mention the invitation.

International Relations

South Caucasus Peace Push Faces Political and Regional Roadblocks

This past weekend, discussion of the “historic joint declaration for peace” was nearly impossible to avoid. Optimism ran high, with many expressing hope that peace and cooperation might finally take hold in the South Caucasus. But how realistic is that vision? What was signed in Washington on August 8, 2025, was not a binding treaty but a declaration of intent. That is a meaningful step, but for now it remains a symbolic document. Turning it into lasting peace will require a full treaty with specific commitments. One major hurdle is Armenia’s constitution, which still contains territorial claims to land recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Amending this will be politically difficult. The day after the signing, the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) issued a sharply critical statement. It accused the declaration of harming Armenia’s sovereignty, legitimizing an Azerbaijani-favored corridor, and violating Armenia’s territory. The ARF demanded the withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces, the release of Artsakh’s political prisoners, and guarantees for the safe return of displaced Armenians. Of the 69 seats in Armenia’s parliament, 28 belong to the “Armenia” faction, 15 of them held by ARF members, giving the party significant influence over this debate. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has also said that the wording of Armenia’s constitution blocked the signing of a treaty in Washington. Alongside the declaration, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed economic agreements with the United States to boost trade, transit, energy, infrastructure, and technology in the South Caucasus. Yet these too face obstacles. Iranian official Ali Akbar Velayati vowed to prevent the creation of an “American corridor” in the region and rejected reports of a US-Armenian lease deal for land along Iran’s border, warning it would become “a graveyard for the mercenaries of Donald Trump.” Proponents argue that if such a corridor opens, it could strengthen the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. However, no study has yet confirmed whether the 43-kilometer stretch in question could handle a major traffic increase. After a weekend of high expectations, political realities have brought a more cautious mood. The week ahead promises further developments. President Trump has announced a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Some reports claim Putin has proposed a Ukraine ceasefire in exchange for significant territorial concessions and recognition of Russia’s claims. In response, European leaders issued a joint statement affirming Ukraine’s right to decide its own future, calling for robust security guarantees, and insisting that any peace process must begin with a ceasefire or reduced hostilities. Ukrainian President Zelensky reiterated that the constitution already answers the territorial question and that no land will be surrendered. Diplomatic exchanges have been intense. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke with both Zelensky and Aliyev, urging a balanced approach and recalling the saying that “a bad peace is better than a good war.” Putin called the president of Tajikistan, and Zelensky spoke again with Aliyev. Behind the brief official readouts lies a broader search for ways forward. International politics is a delicate process, and disputes built over decades or centuries...

Diplomacy

Kazakhstan Showcases Middle Power Role in Washington D.C.: Kazakh Ambassador Ashikbayev Spreads the Message

Like it or not, the world is moving away from unipolar dominance and entering an era of multipolarity where national interests increasingly counter the globalist ambitions of some major powers. In this evolving landscape, as the major powers adjust to new geopolitical realities, an increasing number of states are becoming more comfortable operating autonomously as sovereign nations. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan is emerging as a middle power, conscious all the same of the risks associated with remaining neutral in the oft-times bitter rivalries between major powers. Over the past twenty years, Kazakhstan has consistently signaled that it will not be drawn into the strategic maneuverings of foreign powers, instead pursuing its own national interests in a measured fashion – rather like the other Central Asian states – so as not to undermine regional stability. Accordingly, Astana offers good offices to foster dialogue and reconciliation among countries and blocs affected by conflict and/or heightened strategic competition. Murat Nurtleu, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister, underscores just that point: “In this era of geopolitical competition, Kazakhstan’s role as a bridge between East and West is more vital than ever.” These words not only highlight Kazakhstan’s confidence and expanding role as a rising middle power but aim to mitigate the potential consequences of great power overreach, whether in Central Asia or elsewhere. In a recent interview in Washington DC with this writer, Ambassador Yerzhan Ashikbayev of Kazakhstan to the United States elaborated: “Kazakhstan is a middle power, which means, broadly speaking, a country that holds an influential position in the international system, especially in Eurasia. Maintaining peaceful relations with our neighbors – major, middle, and minor powers – is a top priority for us. We work to shape outcomes beyond our own borders, keeping in mind our national interests, always fostering friendly and mutually beneficial ties – a modus vivendi – with our neighbors.” It is well-known that Astana’s global diplomatic strategy prioritizes fair trade and aims to strengthen inter-regional economic ties – especially in transport, logistics, finance, and communications. It views economic development – with an emphasis on building an economically stable middle class across ethnicities – as key to national unity and regional stability. It is less known that Kazakhstan, in its diplomatic pragmatism, winces at unequal power relations, preferring to focus on long-term equity outcomes over short-term efficiency in matters of economic development. Ambassador Ashikbayev emphasizes that “Kazakhstan’s foreign policy opens space where dialogue can flourish. Guided by pragmatism, we will concentrate on practical matters like communication, quality investment flows, fair commerce, energy, and critical minerals.” He insists that “for the international system to flourish, it should function well for all, promoting peace and the common good for the majority. That is what we export - peace.” U.S. Secretary of State Marcio Rubio also emphasizes the need to keep peace front and center: “President [Trump] wants to end wars. He’s not a fan of wars. He thinks wars are a waste of time and a waste of lives. And we’re going to continue to do everything we can and engage...

History

Honoring Abai Qunanbaiuly: Kazakhstan’s Enlightened Voice, Now Celebrated Worldwide

Today, August 10, Kazakhstan observes Abai Day, honoring the birth of Abai Qunanbaiuly (1845–1904)—a towering poet, philosopher, composer, and reformist who laid the foundations of written Kazakh literature. Since 2020, this date has been officially enshrined in the national calendar, reflecting Abai's inestimable role in shaping the Kazakh cultural and moral consciousness. Across the country, poetry readings, concerts, and flower-laying ceremonies are held to mark the anniversary of the man whose influence still guides Kazakh identity. Abai’s literary oeuvre—spanning some 170 original poems and 56 translations—brought new poetic meters, rhyme schemes, and philosophical depth to Kazakh verse. His celebrated Words of Edification (Kara sozder) remains a timeless guide on education, morality, and personal integrity, inspiring generations with its call for intellectual growth and ethical living. He did not merely write; he transformed the role of literature in Kazakh society, blending folk traditions with universal humanist ideals. A pivotal moment in his international recognition came in 1885, when American journalist George Kennan visited Semey (then Semipalatinsk). Struck by the city’s public library and by Abai’s active presence among its patrons, Kennan recorded his impressions in Siberia and the Exile System—one of the earliest Western literary references to the Kazakh thinker. This encounter symbolized the beginning of Abai’s journey beyond Kazakhstan’s borders, his name finding a place in the literary consciousness of the wider world. Abai’s creative spirit extended beyond the written word into music. In 1970, Wesleyan University Press in Connecticut published Music of Central Asia, which devoted a chapter to his musical influence. The book featured a verse of his that celebrates the enduring power of song: “Song opens the doors of the world to you, Song opens the death to you. Listen, Kazakh, grasp its wisdom. Song accompanies you your whole life.” These lines capture his belief that art—whether sung or spoken—has the power to illuminate the human spirit and guide a person through life’s trials and triumphs. What makes Abai truly global is not just his artistic genius, but his vision. As one scholar aptly put it, “We participate in global intellectual culture through Abai. He is the moral compass of our people”. His works urge individuals toward self-awareness, ethical living, and cultural openness—values that resonate far beyond Kazakhstan’s borders. On this day, the 180th anniversary of his birth, the words and music of Abai Qunanbaiuly continue to inspire not just a nation, but a world in search of wisdom, integrity, and the beauty of truth.

Peace Initiative

Central Asia Sees Armenia-Azerbaijan Deal as a Step Forward

Central Asian countries have welcomed an agreement signed by Armenia and Azerbaijan at the White House, saying it is an important step toward peace in the South Caucasus and sets the stage for trade growth in the wider region. “We highly appreciate the efforts of all parties aimed at overcoming the long-standing conflict,” Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Saturday. “We are confident that the establishment of long-term peace and stability in the South Caucasus will pave the way for the launch of large transport and infrastructure projects for the benefit of all peoples of the vast region.” The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed the deal in a ceremony overseen by U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday, building on extensive dialogue between the two sides, though falling short of a comprehensive peace pact that would formally end decades of conflict. One of the terms of the Trump-backed deal is the opening of a South Caucasus trade corridor that would provide Azerbaijan – and Central Asian economies – with increased access to Turkey and Europe. Kazakhstan also praised the agreement and Trump’s role in making it happen, saying it “ended the long-standing military conflict between the two states and paved the way for establishing diplomatic relations and developing cooperation between them based on lasting peace,” presidential adviser Ruslan Zheldibay said on Telegram. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev noted that Kazakhstan played a role in the rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Armenia because it hosted ministerial-level peace talks between the two sides in Almaty, according to Zheldibay. Tajikistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “the prompt legal consolidation” of the agreement signed in Washington will be a big step toward the full normalization of ties between the longtime adversaries and will contribute to regional stability and development. Kyrgyzstan has similarly expressed support for peace, offering earlier this year to host the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkmenistan, which pursues a stated policy of neutrality in foreign affairs, faces Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea and is eager to develop trade routes.

Middle Corridor

Tentative Armenia-Azerbaijan Plan Could Boost the Middle Corridor for Central Asia

A tentative U.S.-facilitated agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could open a new transport route through Armenia’s southern Syunik region, linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan and onward to Türkiye. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has confirmed that Washington proposed managing a 32-kilometer corridor through Syunik to connect the two Azerbaijani territories. While this outline has been discussed publicly, the legal and operational details remain undisclosed, and officials say more information will be released if the agreement is finalized. According to U.S. mediators and regional leaders, the route is part of ongoing efforts to normalize Armenia-Azerbaijan relations after decades of conflict. A U.S. official told reporters the plan could “open Armenia to the world” by providing new options for regional trade and transit. Both sides stress that key issues—such as governance, security, and financing—still need resolution. The corridor is one of the main sticking points in peace talks: Azerbaijan wants it free from exclusive Armenian control, while Armenia rejects any arrangement that would compromise its sovereignty. If realized, the route could become a new link in the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor”, which connects Central Asia to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye. It would offer Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan an additional westward route, bypassing Russian and Iranian territory. Traffic along the Middle Corridor has grown rapidly as shippers sought alternatives to northern routes. Cargo volumes along the Middle Corridor increased markedly—from around 600,000 tons in 2021 to approximately 1.5 million tons in 2022, representing a 2.5-fold rise and climbed further to approximately 4.1 million tons by late 2024. The EU has committed billions of euros to upgrade ports, railways, and logistics hubs, and the World Bank forecasts the volumes potentially reaching up to 11 million tonnes per year. route’s freight volumes could triple by 2030. An Armenian segment could further cut transit times and build redundancy, improving supply chain resilience for Central Asia. The proposal’s framing as a U.S.-supported project signals a shift in South Caucasus diplomacy. Russia has long mediated between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but its influence has waned amid the war in Ukraine. Olesya Vartanyan, a South Caucasus expert at the International Crisis Group, told AP News, “Russia has been left on the sidelines, because the Kremlin has nothing to offer to Armenia and Azerbaijan.” The initiative also concerns Iran, which fears losing its role as a north–south transit hub. For Central Asia, the corridor could add a politically diversified channel for exports, reinforcing “multi-vector” trade strategies. It would provide new access to Turkish and European markets, potentially strengthening regional bargaining power. The proposed corridor is expected to include rail transport as well as oil and gas pipelines and fiber‑optic cables, though construction would be carried out by private firms under a U.S.-negotiated lease agreement as reported by PanArmenian news service. This could allow Caspian energy exports from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to reach Türkiye and Europe more directly, and improve Central Asia’s digital connectivity by reducing reliance on Russian telecom routes. However, no technical designs...