Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle East Crisis

U.S. Strikes on Iranian Rail and Coastal Infrastructure Put Central Asia’s Southern Routes Under Pressure

U.S. strikes on Iranian rail and coastal infrastructure have put Central Asia's southern transport plans under new pressure. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have spent years building routes through Iran to reach the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and markets beyond Russia. Public statements so far do not show a confirmed halt in Central Asian freight, but bridge damage near Iran's border with Turkmenistan and strikes along Iran's southern coast have made the security picture more concrete. Reports and a video posted on July 9 showed damage to the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge, on Iran's rail link to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, after overnight U.S. strikes. Reuters said it verified the location by matching the bridge, riverbank, road, fields, and nearby town with satellite imagery, and found no earlier versions of the video online. Iran's Revolutionary Guard-linked Neynava Corps in Golestan said the area around the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge in Aq Qala County was targeted by U.S. cruise missiles early on July 9, with no casualties reported. The bridge sits on the Gorgan-Incheh Borun railway line, which reaches the Incheh Borun border crossing with Turkmenistan and links onward to Kazakhstan. Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways, Jabar-Ali Zakeri, said engineers had rebuilt one damaged track on the Mashhad route and returned it to service in less than 15 hours, according to Fars News Agency. He said work on a second damaged line was continuing and was expected to finish within hours. That statement concerned the Mashhad route, however, and does not confirm the status of the Gorgan-Incheh Borun line. The route sits inside a wider transport effort that Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, China, and Russia have all tried to expand. TCA has previously reported on a 2024 test container train on the China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran route, which ran from Xi'an to Tehran. It carried 45 forty-foot containers loaded with auto parts and cut the China-Iran delivery time to 15 days. The Gorgan-Incheh Borun railroad was inaugurated in December 2014, linking Iran to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan along the eastern side of the Caspian Sea. The wider Uzen-Bereket-Gorgan route runs for more than 900 kilometers from western Kazakhstan through Turkmenistan into northern Iran. It connects Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’s rail networks to Iran’s system and onward to the Persian Gulf and Asian markets. The U.S. military has framed the latest strikes as a response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. U.S. Central Command said on July 8 that its forces had struck about 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. CENTCOM said the operation was designed “to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz.” The coastal security picture also impacts Kazakhstan through Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas. On June 28, Kazakhstan and Iran signed a 27-year Build-Operate-Transfer agreement for a Kazakh transport and logistics terminal there. The Kazakh embassy in Tehran said the deal...

Water Management

Tajikistan’s Electricity Losses Add Pressure to Water and Climate Agenda

Tajikistan’s aging power grid has become part of the country’s water and climate policy. The issue returned to the agenda of European Union-Tajikistan cooperation on July 3, when the two sides held a development cooperation meeting in Dushanbe. Energy and water were included in the Global Gateway agenda, while other talks addressed transport and energy infrastructure, the digital economy, water-resource management, and strategic raw materials. Tajikistan gets nearly 98% of its electricity from hydropower. That gives the country a low-carbon power mix, while tying electricity supply to river flows, snowmelt, reservoirs, and glacier change. Losses in the power system add pressure to that link. Each kilowatt-hour lost in transmission or distribution must still be generated. In Tajikistan, that usually means more water passing through hydropower plants or imported electricity when reservoir levels are low. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has focused on concessional funding for loss-reduction projects. After a May meeting between Energy Minister Daler Juma and Holger Wiefel, the EBRD’s head in Tajikistan, the energy ministry put the aim plainly: “The sides discussed attracting concessional financing for projects aimed at reducing electricity losses and improving the efficiency of the country’s energy system.” Officials also discussed private investment. Hydropower plants in the Zarafshan basin and solar plants were discussed as well. No new financing has been announced from those discussions. The immediate context is an existing EBRD- and EU-backed program for the distribution network. The Times of Central Asia previously reported in April that Tajikistan would receive nearly €49.6 million from the EBRD to reduce electricity losses. The package combines a €28 million loan with grants and technical assistance for work in nine branches of the distribution network in Sughd and Khatlon. First Deputy Finance Minister Yusuf Majidi said the project would reduce energy losses, replace worn-out infrastructure, install modern meters, and improve billing and revenue collection. The EBRD project file gives the total project cost as €43 million. It includes up to €28 million in EBRD financing and a €15 million EU co-investment grant through the Asia Pacific Investment Facility. The project targets automatic billing and metering systems in nine networks of the Bokhtar, Kulob, and Guliston branches of Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. The bank says the project is aimed at reducing high inefficiency and technical losses in Tajikistan’s power distribution network. Distribution losses fell from 19.2% in 2024 to 15.6% in 2025. Even after that fall, more than 3.1 billion kWh were lost in 2025. Officials linked the reduction to smart meters and digital metering. President Emomali Rahmon put the issue in direct terms in a late 2023 parliamentary address. “Our electricity losses are about 4 billion kWh,” he said, adding: “If we prevent this, then there will be enough electricity for everyone.” That comment predates the 2025 improvement, but it still explains why loss reduction has become part of the environmental case for energy-sector financing. Cutting losses can free up electricity without new generation and reduce pressure on winter imports and hydropower reservoirs. Reuters reported...

Energy Investment

Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector Without Local Business: The Anatomy of Major Projects

In late June 2026, construction began on a 1 GW wind power plant in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl Region. The project is valued at $1.4 billion. Companies based in the United Arab Emirates, Masdar and W Solar, hold 80% of the project, while Kazakhstan’s quasi-state sector holds the remaining 20% through Qazaq Green Power and the Kazakhstan Investment Development Fund. This ownership model has become typical across Kazakhstan’s energy industry. Nearly all major new energy infrastructure projects rely on foreign capital. The country’s largest renewable energy developments involve international investors, including France’s TotalEnergies and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power. Even when agreements collapse, the government continues to rely on foreign partners. After financing problems ended cooperation with Russia’s Inter RAO, construction of new thermal power plants in Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk was quickly reassigned to a Kazakh-Singapore consortium. A similar pattern appears across the sector: foreign investors provide most of the capital and technology, while Kazakhstan’s state-linked companies take minority stakes through Samruk-Kazyna or its subsidiaries This has created an unusual situation. Despite an acute shortage of generating capacity and guaranteed long-term demand, Kazakhstan’s largest private businesses have largely stayed away from electricity generation. Instead, domestic capital continues to favor sectors with greater liquidity and shorter investment horizons, ranging from finance to residential real estate. The reasons lie in straightforward economics, where financing costs and regulatory conditions outweigh the sector’s potential returns. The Financial Equation Power generation is one of the most capital-intensive infrastructure industries, with investment payback periods typically ranging from 10 to 15 years. Such projects require access to long-term financing at low interest rates. For Kazakhstan’s private sector, those financing instruments are largely unavailable. Under the National Bank’s tight monetary policy, with the benchmark interest rate standing at 17%, commercial borrowing costs for businesses routinely exceed 20% annually. Financing the construction of a power plant with local-currency loans at those rates is, mathematically, unviable. Such projects are virtually guaranteed to become unprofitable. Rather than engaging in complex, long-term infrastructure financing, Kazakhstan’s banking sector has increasingly concentrated on faster and more profitable lending. Official statistics from the National Bank of Kazakhstan illustrate this imbalance. As of May 2026, banks’ claims on households had reached approximately $60 billion, while lending to non-financial private enterprises, the real economy,stood at about $29 billion, less than half that amount. In practice, commercial banks have largely withdrawn from financing major industrial investment projects, preferring consumer lending with higher liquidity and quicker returns. Foreign corporations, meanwhile, enter Kazakhstan with access to international capital markets. They secure financing from global development institutions or sovereign wealth funds in their home countries at significantly lower borrowing costs. As a result, domestic private investors often lose the competitive race before projects even reach the investment decision stage. Unequal Conditions for Investors A second obstacle for domestic investors lies in Kazakhstan’s regulatory framework. Electricity tariffs have historically been kept under government control to limit inflationary pressures and avoid sharp increases in household utility bills and production costs. To attract major international energy companies,...

Fuel Imports

Fuel Squeeze Leaves Kyrgyzstan Competing for Costly Alternatives

Kyrgyzstan is moving to secure alternative fuel supplies from China and Belarus as disruptions in Russia’s refining sector expose Bishkek’s dependence on a single supplier. The new arrangements may ease immediate pressure, but they also show how costly and limited Kyrgyzstan’s options remain. First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Daniyar Amangeldiyev said China has confirmed a contract to supply the first 3,000 tons of jet fuel, while negotiations are under way for an additional 5,000 tons of diesel fuel. The government has also signed agreements with Belarus covering 3,000 tons of jet fuel and approximately 10,000 tons of diesel. On July 1, the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) extended the zero customs duty regime within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) for gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, marine fuel, and other petroleum products for another year. EEC Minister of Trade Andrey Slepnev said the previous zero rates had expired on June 30 and that proposals from several member states to extend them were quickly coordinated. “The zero rates have been extended for another year,” he said. That buys time but does not remove the main risk. Russian refining disruptions, seasonal demand, and export controls could still reduce the flow of petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan. Imports from alternative suppliers are also likely to come at higher prices and on less favorable terms than those traditionally offered by Moscow. Russia has been Kyrgyzstan’s primary fuel supplier for decades. The country began receiving Russian petroleum products at preferential prices on October 10, 2000, when the prime ministers of Russia and Kyrgyzstan, Mikhail Kasyanov and Amangeldy Muraliev, signed an intergovernmental agreement in Astana governing indirect taxation in bilateral trade. Since then, Kyrgyzstan has received basic petroleum products duty-free at domestic Russian prices. In 2011, then-adviser to the Kyrgyz prime minister Farid Niyazov told the news outlet 24.kg that Russia would supply all petroleum products to Kyrgyzstan indefinitely without export duties, except aviation fuel. “At present, Russia’s export duty on these fuel products is $245 per ton. You can imagine how much we would otherwise have to pay for fuel,” he said. The 2000 bilateral agreement was terminated in 2015 after Kyrgyzstan joined the EAEU. Since then, the country has operated under the union’s common customs rules as well as bilateral agreements with Russia. This has left Kyrgyzstan heavily dependent on a single supplier. According to official statements and industry estimates, more than 90% of the country’s fuel consumption for households and agriculture is currently covered by Russian imports. Despite Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak’s assurances that domestic fuel reserves remain sufficient, shortages began to emerge in Russia in early June. Russia has since moved to tighten exports further as refinery disruptions have continued. As a result, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers has begun searching for alternative suppliers while introducing daily monitoring of existing fuel deliveries. Rising gasoline and diesel prices had already prompted the government to introduce temporary state regulation of motor fuel prices in late May. It has since rolled...

Tax Policy

Uzbekistan Bank Data Plan Sparks Privacy and Tax Debate

A draft government resolution that would establish unified rules for information sharing between banks and tax authorities has triggered widespread public debate in Uzbekistan, with supporters describing it as a necessary step to combat the shadow economy while critics warn it could weaken constitutional protections for banking privacy. The proposal, published for public discussion by Uzbekistan’s State Tax Committee, aims to regulate how banks provide information to tax authorities. According to the committee, the document does not introduce new powers for tax officials or abolish bank secrecy. Instead, it seeks to define the procedures, deadlines, formats, and electronic methods for exchanging information already permitted under existing legislation. The proposal attracted significant attention after some media reports suggested it would allow tax authorities to gain broad access to citizens’ bank accounts and deposits. Responding to the growing discussion, the State Tax Committee issued a public explanation, arguing that these interpretations do not accurately reflect the draft’s content. “The draft does not grant tax authorities new powers, does not abolish bank secrecy, and does not provide free access to the bank accounts of citizens or businesses,” the committee said. It stressed that banks would continue to provide information only in cases established by law. The committee pointed to Article 134 of the Tax Code and the Law on Bank Secrecy, which already allow banks to share information related to taxation with state tax authorities under specific legal procedures. It also emphasized that any information received by tax authorities is itself protected as tax secrecy and cannot legally be disclosed or used for purposes other than tax administration. Officials further argued that similar information-sharing mechanisms exist in many countries, including members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Uzbekistan has also joined the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes, requiring the country to develop clear and transparent rules in this area. Despite these assurances, the proposal quickly became one of the country’s most discussed regulatory initiatives. One of the most controversial provisions concerns peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers. Under the draft, banks would report cases where an individual’s bank card or electronic wallet receives transfers totaling at least 500 times the base calculation amount during a calendar month from people other than close relatives. The measure is intended to identify cases where personal bank cards are allegedly being used for unregistered commercial activity. Economist Otabek Bakirov criticized the proposal, arguing that it contradicts constitutional guarantees protecting banking secrecy. Referring to Article 41 of Uzbekistan’s Constitution, he noted that the confidentiality of bank operations, deposits, and accounts is guaranteed by law. Bakirov also recalled that previous attempts to introduce similar monitoring of P2P transactions had been abandoned following constitutional reforms. “I hope this attempt will also fail,” he wrote, calling on parliament, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, journalists, and the public not to remain silent during the discussion. Public comments submitted during the consultation have echoed many of these concerns. According...

TCA Interviews

Kazakhstan Seeking to Turn Transit Routes Into Investment Growth, Vice Minister Says

The development of transport and logistics has become one of the main priorities of Kazakhstan's economic policy as the country seeks to turn its position between China, Russia, the Caspian Sea, and Europe into long-term growth. Government transport data show the broader transport and warehousing sector grew in January-May 2026, although rail freight and cargo turnover remained under pressure. Large-scale rail, road, port, warehouse, and digital projects now sit at the center of that effort. The sector requires tens of billions of dollars in investment, while the reshaping of Eurasian supply chains since 2022 has raised the importance of the Middle Corridor and Caspian-linked routes. Can Kazakhstan attract the capital needed to implement large-scale infrastructure projects? How will changing investment priorities affect regional development? And how could new investment reshape the country's transport market? The Times of Central Asia discussed these questions with Maksat Kaliakparov, vice minister of transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan. TCA: How would you assess the current investment attractiveness of Kazakhstan's transport sector? How much foreign investment has the industry attracted recently? Maksat Kaliakparov: The investment attractiveness of the sector is high and continues to strengthen. In 2025 alone, gross foreign direct investment into Kazakhstan's economy reached $20.5 billion, an increase of 14.4% compared with the previous year. Investment is increasingly flowing into transport and logistics alongside manufacturing, digital infrastructure, and the financial sector. The transportation and warehousing sector was among the country's fastest-growing industries in January-May 2026, expanding by 8.4%. Investor interest is also reflected in the fact that, in 2025, Kazakhstan signed 88 commercial agreements worth more than $69.5 billion with partners from China, the UAE, the United States, and European countries. A significant share of these funds will be directed toward transport and logistics projects. More broadly, Kazakhstan's investment policy framework includes a target of increasing annual foreign direct investment inflows to $25.5 billion while raising investment in fixed capital to 25.1% of GDP. TCA: Which segments of the industry are currently attracting the greatest investor interest: railways, highways, aviation, ports, warehousing, or digital logistics? Which areas will require the largest investments in the coming years? Maksat Kaliakparov: Investor interest is spread across several major segments. Railways remain a key priority. Kazakhstan is implementing modernization and new construction projects, including the recently commissioned Dostyk-Moyynty railway section, as well as the Darbaza-Maktaaral and Moyynty-Kyzylzhar lines. By 2030, the country plans to build or modernize approximately 5,000 kilometers of railway infrastructure. Maritime and port logistics are also attracting substantial investment. Expansion is underway at the ports of Aktau and Kuryk, while a new container hub in Aktau is being built with the participation of China's Lianyungang Port Group. The project is expected to increase capacity to 240,000 TEU by the end of 2026. Road infrastructure has secured a landmark private investment through the Car Park Transformer roadside service network. Warehouse and multimodal logistics continue to develop, including through Kazakhstan's terminal at Georgia's Port of Poti. Digitalization is another important area. In particular, the pilot Smart...