International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Russia's War

Ukrainian Military Says Strike Hit Rocket Workshop Linked to Baikonur

Ukraine’s General Staff said on Wednesday that its August 15 missile strike on a Russian space center had hit an engine-assembling workshop for Soyuz rockets as well as an aircraft maintenance facility. The Ukrainian military said its assessment was based “on the analysis of additional data,” while Russia has acknowledged an industrial facility in the area was attacked without specifying whether there was damage to the Progress Rocket Space Center. The assessment follows the posting online of satellite imagery apparently showing damage from the missile strike. The Progress center produces Soyuz-2 rockets that are regularly launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Independent confirmation of the extent of damage from the strike in Russia’s Samara region, as well as whether the strike might affect future Soyuz launches from Baikonur, remain difficult. The Ukrainian General Staff statement also said a fire spanning about 5,000 square meters was recorded as a result of the strike on the Progress center, which it described as an important military target. The center “is one of the key enterprises in the Russian rocket and space industry, involved in the production of ‘Soyuz’ family rockets,” the statement said. “The company's products are used, among other things, to launch spacecraft into orbit and to deploy Russian satellite communication groups for the benefit of the Russian army.”

Artificial Intelligence

Kazakhstan Navigates Rival U.S. and China AI Frameworks

Kazakhstan has found itself in an unusual position as the technological rivalry between the United States and China intensifies. Within a matter of weeks, Astana first joined the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative and then became a founding member of the Beijing-backed World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO). Washington is now preparing to warn countries aligned with its AI strategy that participation in competing frameworks may be incompatible, Reuters has reported. For Kazakhstan, such a choice would be uncomfortable for more than political reasons. The United States is home to many of the world’s leading AI and semiconductor companies and offers access to investment and advanced technology. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has critical mineral reserves that Washington is keen to bring into secure supply chains. China is next door, remains one of Kazakhstan’s leading trading partners, and offers countries without their own advanced technologies broader access to Chinese developments. Zamir Karazhanov, a political scientist and director of the Kemel Arna Public Foundation, believes Kazakhstan is unlikely to abandon cooperation with China on artificial intelligence. Much, he says, will depend on how far Washington is prepared to go and whether technological alignment becomes a condition for continued partnership with the United States. Pax Silica was launched by Washington in late 2025. Despite its name, the initiative goes far beyond silicon and chips. It covers the supply chains and physical infrastructure underpinning AI, including critical minerals, semiconductors, energy, and computing capacity. Kazakhstan officially joined Pax Silica on June 25, 2026, becoming the first Central Asian country to enter the initiative. The accession declaration was signed in Washington by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Zhaslan Madiyev. For Kazakhstan, participation also has a tangible economic dimension: the country has a substantial mineral resource base needed for high-tech manufacturing. The Times of Central Asia has previously examined why joining Pax Silica could help Kazakhstan attract foreign investment into mining, energy, data centers, and manufacturing for the AI economy. U.S. interest in Kazakhstan’s mineral resources predates Pax Silica. In June, Astana hosted a C5+1 critical minerals dialogue involving representatives of all five Central Asian states and U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor. The American side spoke openly about expanding cooperation with the region on secure supply chains. But in July, Astana took another step, this time toward Beijing. Kazakhstan became one of 29 founding members of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization. The agreement establishing WAICO was signed in Shanghai, where the organization will also be headquartered. Beijing has presented the new organization as a mechanism for international cooperation on AI governance and narrowing the technological gap between countries. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also promoted China’s open-weight AI models as a more accessible alternative for countries that cannot afford or easily access leading proprietary systems. However, Beijing is also considering restrictions on overseas access to some of China’s leading AI models. In July, Xi Jinping pitched WAICO as part of China’s effort to advance its own model of global...

Space Center Strike

Satellite Images Suggest Damage at Russian Space Center Linked to Kazakhstan’s Baikonur

Satellite imagery purportedly showing damage from a Ukrainian missile strike at a key Russian space center is circulating online, although there is no independent confirmation of whether Soyuz rocket facilities at the site were hit. Without providing details, Russia has acknowledged that industrial infrastructure was hit in an attack late last week in the Samara region, but has not publicly identified any impact on the Progress Rocket Space Center in Samara. Ukraine says it targeted the site because it supports Russia’s war effort. The Progress facility also makes Soyuz-2 rockets that are regularly launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to deliver spacecraft to the International Space Station. ExileNova+, a Ukrainian channel that tracks damage assessments and other aspects of the war with Russia, posted what it said was a satellite image of damage to a building involved in Soyuz rocket production. “Two hits were recorded on building 106A, where onboard electronics, control systems, cable networks, and instrument compartments for the rockets are assembled. Building 106B, where the final assembly takes place, is located nearby,” ExileNova+ said on Telegram. There was no independent confirmation of the claims about damage at building 106A. Business Insider, a U.S. publication, published a satellite image that it said shows a hole in the roof of a Progress center building, as well as damage to the exterior. The publication said the image was obtained from U.S. firm Vantor. For now, it is difficult to assess how the missile strike in Samara could affect future Soyuz launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, which Russia leases from Kazakhstan. Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, said a launch pad at Baikonur was damaged during the liftoff of a crewed spacecraft in late November 2025 but was repaired in early 2026. Soyuz rockets then launched Russian spacecraft from Baikonur in March and April of this year. “The extent of the damage at Progress and its impact on future Soyuz launches will likely become clearer over time. Even a temporary disruption could complicate a production schedule already expected to rely on existing rocket stocks to meet growing demand,” Alison Sayer wrote in an analysis for ISR University, a team of former U.S. Department of Defense professionals, national security experts, and others. Roscosmos is a civilian entity, but Russia’s military relies on satellites and other space infrastructure provided or operated by the country’s space industry. Tracking platform Orbital Radar identifies the Russian Aerospace Forces, a branch of the Russian military, as the operator of multiple Soyuz-2 launches, including launches from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia.

Labor Market

Kazakhstan South Korea Working Visa Route Opens Under EPS

South Korea is opening an official route into its labor market for citizens of Kazakhstan, thousands of whom already work in the country without legal status. Seoul has added Kazakhstan to its Employment Permit System (EPS), a government program that allows South Korean employers facing labor shortages to recruit workers from participating countries. Kazakh workers are expected to begin arriving through the system in 2028. Kazakhstan has become the 18th country designated as a sending country under the EPS, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Labor and Social Protection. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan already participate in the program. Kazakhstan had sought admission since 2023, but its large population of undocumented workers in South Korea became the main obstacle to an agreement. According to figures cited by Kazakh officials in 2025, about 15,000 Kazakhstanis were working in South Korea, roughly 11,000 of them without legal status. The EPS allows foreign workers to obtain E-9 visas for jobs in sectors facing labor shortages, including manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and fisheries. Workers are generally admitted for three years, with extensions allowing them to remain for up to four years and 10 months. Recruitment will not begin immediately. Kazakhstan and South Korea must first sign a memorandum of understanding and establish the arrangements for the Korean-language test required under the EPS (EPS-TOPIK), which Kazakh officials have said will be conducted at the National Testing Center in Almaty. Kazakh citizens can travel to South Korea visa-free for short stays, but this does not give them the right to work. Some visitors have overstayed and found jobs in construction, agriculture, and other sectors. The scale of undocumented employment complicated Kazakhstan’s attempt to join the EPS. In the fall of 2025, Kazakh officials acknowledged that Seoul wanted concrete measures to reduce illegal migration. Astana prepared a roadmap aimed at reducing the number of undocumented workers and preventing those recruited through a future legal scheme from overstaying. For prospective workers, the change is straightforward: instead of entering South Korea as a visitor and seeking work without authorization, applicants will be able to apply from Kazakhstan and enter the country with permission to work. The agreement forms part of a broader effort by Kazakhstan to create legal routes for its citizens working abroad. Astana has also reached labor-migration agreements or cooperation arrangements with countries including Qatar and the United Kingdom, while pursuing similar deals elsewhere.

Drone Attack

Nizhnekamsk Drone Attack: Families of Uzbek Victims to Receive Compensation

The families of Uzbek citizens killed in the August 10 drone attack on Nizhnekamsk in Russia’s Tatarstan region will receive compensation from the regional authorities. The attack killed 13 people, including eight Uzbek citizens who had been working in the city as construction workers. The family of each person killed will receive 2 million rubles, about $23,500, from the Tatarstan government. Payments will also be made to those injured, with the amount depending on the severity of their injuries. Tatarstan’s regional government will pay 2 million rubles to the family of each person killed. The companies that employed the victims will also pay compensation to their families and to injured workers. A temporary accommodation center has also been opened for residents whose homes require major repairs, and claims for property damage are being accepted there. According to updated figures from the Tatarstan authorities, 78 people sought medical assistance following the attack, with 27 hospitalized. Nizhnekamsk lies about 1,200 kilometers from Ukraine and is one of Russia’s major industrial centers, home to the TANECO oil refinery. Russian authorities said both industrial facilities and residential areas were hit and have opened a criminal investigation. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces had struck the TANECO refinery and caused a fire. Uzbek authorities initially reported that seven citizens had been killed, before raising the figure to eight. One Tajik citizen was also among those killed. On August 12, the bodies of the eight deceased Uzbek citizens were repatriated. Officials in Tashkent said they were coordinating with their Russian counterparts to assist Uzbek citizens who remained hospitalized. For Uzbekistan, the Nizhnekamsk tragedy is another reminder of the risks faced by labor migrants in Russia. Large numbers of Central Asians work in major Russian industrial centers, while the expanding geographic reach of drone attacks is increasingly affecting cities far from the Russia-Ukraine front.

Power Outage

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Dispute Cause After Regional Power Failure Hits Almaty

A major power failure affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan on August 14. In Almaty, electricity went out at 2:38 p.m. local time in four districts, disrupting transport and traffic in Kazakhstan’s largest city. Traffic lights stopped working and some businesses closed. The metro suspended service, and passengers still underground were evacuated. At several busy intersections, motorists and delivery couriers began directing traffic themselves. In Kyrgyzstan, outages affected parts of Bishkek and Issyk-Kul Region. “An accident in the power system of a neighboring country affected the Central Asian power grid. As a result, power supply disruptions were observed in the Surkhandarya region and several other regions,” Uzbekistan’s Energy Ministry said. In Tajikistan, electricity went out in Dushanbe at about 3 p.m. and in numerous other cities and districts. Later that day, the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources said it had formed a working group to determine the cause. The ministry also denied reports of an accident at the Nurek Hydropower Plant. The Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (KEGOC) later issued a preliminary account attributing the blackout to an emergency at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant. “Due to the emergency shutdown of two hydropower units with a combined capacity of 600 megawatts at the Toktogul HPP in the Kyrgyz Republic, there was a power surge on the North-South transit line, causing an overload and its disconnection by emergency protection systems. As a result, Kazakhstan’s southern zone was separated from the country’s unified power system,” KEGOC explained. Kyrgyz energy officials offered a different account. They said an external outage occurred at 3:34 p.m. Kyrgyzstan time on a high-voltage transmission line connecting northern and southern Kazakhstan. The disturbance split the Central Asian grid into isolated sections, leaving Kyrgyzstan temporarily operating autonomously while automatic protection safeguarded equipment. Both accounts illustrate the interdependence of the Central Asian Power System (CAPS). The Soviet-era network connected the region’s electricity systems across borders that were then internal. It was part of a regional water-and-energy arrangement in which hydropower releases from upstream republics supported irrigation downstream. Cross-border power exchanges declined after the Soviet Union collapsed. In 1999, the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan signed a parallel-operation agreement. Turkmenistan disconnected from CAPS in 2003, while Tajikistan was disconnected from Uzbekistan in December 2009. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed an electricity-trade agreement in March 2018. The southwestern section of Tajikistan’s grid reconnected to CAPS in June 2024, but the northern connection was still under development in July 2026. Turkmenistan remains outside the system. In an assessment published on August 16, Zhakyp Khairushev, chairman of the Public Council under Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, called the incident a serious test of the country’s southern power system. He said emergency protection contained the disruption and allowed electricity to be restored in stages. Power restrictions in Kazakhstan were lifted by 5 p.m., but Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan continued to disagree over where the failure began.