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Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Weighs a Second Major Oil Export Route

Following repeated disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system, Kazakhstan’s leading oil producers are examining a much larger Trans-Caspian export route. A working group representing eight shareholders responsible for production in the Tengiz and Kashagan fields has commissioned a feasibility study for moving crude from the Atyrau area to Aktau, across the Caspian to Baku, and onward through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. The study is expected to go to shareholders in November. The current proposal follows a policy line set out in July 2022, when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev identified the Trans-Caspian route as a priority and instructed KazMunayGas to examine options, including possible participation by Tengiz investors. The present study puts a much larger export channel under commercial examination. CPC remains indispensable, carrying more than four-fifths of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Of the 78.7 million tons of oil that Kazakhstan exported in 2025, 64.8 million went through CPC. Existing alternatives are small by comparison. Even the eastbound flow to China and the Schwedt route through Russia together absorb only a fraction of CPC volumes, while current Trans-Caspian shipments are smaller still. What has changed is the cost of concentrating so much of Kazakhstan’s oil exports on CPC, not its underlying commercial importance. The producers are in fact studying two alternatives, a subsea pipeline or a much larger tanker fleet. The Trans-Caspian pipeline idea itself is not new. Variants surfaced in 2009 and appeared again in 2016. What is new is the present combination of shareholder sponsorship, operational urgency, and contemplated scale. Each option is intended to support volumes of up to 35 million metric tons a year. KazMunayGas (KMG) moved 1.3 million tons from Aktau toward BTC in 2025, while its agreement with SOCAR provides for a phased increase to 2.2 million tons annually. The shareholder proposal would expand the existing Trans-Caspian route into a second major export channel. Why Redundancy Now Repeated interruptions in CPC flows have converted the risks of route concentration into lost oil production and a lower national production target. In July, for example, attacks struck tankers loading or approaching the CPC marine terminal, repeatedly suspending operations. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov later put production lost to January, June, and July disruptions at about 3.5 million tons and reduced the 2026 production target from 98 million to 96 million tons. Even temporary interruptions reduce revenues and force urgent production decisions upstream. A Trans-Caspian route capable of carrying 35 million tons a year would not replace CPC, but it would materially reduce Kazakhstan’s exposure to a prolonged interruption. The reported figure equals more than half the 64.8 million tons exported through CPC in 2025 and is almost sixteen times the 2.2-million-ton level contemplated under the existing KMG–SOCAR expansion agreement. It would allow Kazakhstan to divert a substantially larger share of production during disruptions. Kazakhstan can now reroute one or two million tons relatively quickly, but not the tens of millions carried through CPC. The first constraint is inside Kazakhstan. Tengiz and Kashagan lack a high-volume pipeline connection to...

Military Deaths

Kazakhstan Defense Ministry Inspection Leads to 13 Criminal Cases in Wake of Soldiers’ Deaths

A comprehensive inspection of Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry has resulted in 13 criminal cases involving suspected theft of state property, abuse of office, and other violations. The inspection follows the deaths of 14 servicemen during military exercises in the Caspian Sea on September 24. On October 5, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev heard the inspection's initial findings. The commission found serious shortcomings in the preparation and planning of the exercises, risk assessment, organization of the landing operation, and measures to ensure the servicemen’s safety. Criminal cases also concern hazing and violence against servicemen. The tragedy was followed by a reshuffle at the top of the defense establishment. On September 27, Aidos Myrzakhmetov became defense minister, replacing Dauren Kosanov, who was dismissed the same day. Myrzakhmetov had spent much of his career in the State Guard Service, the agency responsible for protecting the president and other designated officials. On October 3, Tokayev dismissed First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Kanysh Abubakirov, Deputy Defense Minister Almaz Dzhumakeyev, and Navy Commander-in-Chief Kanat Niyazbekov. On October 5, another former senior State Guard Service officer, Aitkurman Omarbekov, was appointed First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff. Former navy commander Kanat Niyazbekov was detained on October 6 on suspicion of negligence in connection with the deaths, with a court authorizing his arrest, according to the Interior Ministry. But the president did not stop at personnel changes. Following the deaths of the marines, he ordered the preparation of a Military Reform Plan and delivered one of his harshest public assessments of the armed forces in years. “Our army is stuck in the last century… the command system must be completely rebuilt in line with advanced international practice,” Tokayev said on September 27. He described the deaths of servicemen in peacetime as the result of what he called “essentially criminal unprofessionalism by officers, including generals.” Public Anger After the Caspian Tragedy Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev wrote that the deaths of the servicemen in the Mangystau region triggered “a very strong and emotional reaction in the country,” amplified by what he called the “traditionally clumsy actions” of the military bureaucracy. “Rumors, gossip, fakes, and openly provocative content quickly began to emerge. Nor should we forget that the emergency occurred in the most difficult region,” he wrote, referring to the history of protests in oil-producing Mangystau. The public reaction was particularly intense because of the circumstances surrounding the soldiers’ deaths. The Khazar Qorgany 2026 exercises were taking place in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. During a training mission, 17 servicemen were swept out to sea; three were rescued. For some of those who died, these were the final days of their compulsory military service. Deputy Navy Commander Arman Satkanov said some had as little as eight days left before returning home, with their tickets already purchased. Five members of the military command were detained on September 25 on suspicion of negligence and violations of navigation rules. They included the Navy chief of staff and first...

Public Health

Reports of Suspected Plague in Russia Prompt Central Asian Health Checks

Reports surrounding the death of an employee at an anti-plague research institute in Russia’s Irkutsk region have prompted health authorities across Central Asia to tighten sanitary controls and review preparedness measures. Russian officials have not confirmed that the employee contracted plague or that a laboratory accident occurred. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have nevertheless announced additional checks or heightened readiness in response. Officials across the region say there is no cause for alarm, but the response reflects the sensitivity that remains around cross-border infectious disease threats after the COVID-19 pandemic. What Is Known Russian authorities have released few details, but reports say an employee at the anti-plague institute in Shelekhov, near Irkutsk, accidentally broke a test tube containing live bacteria. That employee, a female aged 27 or 28, was hospitalized on September 29, but she died on October 2. The hospital where she was treated was reportedly placed under quarantine, and nearly 200 people who might have come into contact with her are under medical observation. There are also reports that four more hospitals are under quarantine, with some 100 people hospitalized as a precaution. Russian officials deny these reports and say health specialists are on the ground in the area investigating and have urged the public to wait for an official assessment of the situation and not spread rumors. The Response in Central Asia Kazakhstan shares a 7,800-kilometer border with Russia; the distance from far northeastern Kazakhstan to Irkutsk is more than 1,500 kilometers. While that is comforting, the distance from Kazakhstan to Wuhan, China, is some 3,600 kilometers, and the coronavirus that originated in Wuhan in 2019 eventually reached Kazakhstan and everywhere else in the world. On October 5, Kazakhstan’s Health Ministry said it was aware of the reports from Irkutsk, was following the situation closely, and had ordered closer checks at border crossings and other entry points. “Sanitary and quarantine controls are being conducted at state border crossing points,” a Health Ministry statement said, “No individuals with elevated temperatures, signs of illness, or suspected highly dangerous infections have been detected across any mode of transport.” The Health Ministry said the chances of plague, or “pneumonia of undetermined etiology” crossing Kazakhstan’s borders were low. Kyrgyzstan’s Health Ministry also said it had ordered close checks of people entering the country in response to reports about the situation in Irkutsk. “Specialists monitor individuals, vehicles, and cargo crossing the border to prevent the importation and spread of infectious diseases, including highly dangerous infections,” the Health Ministry said. The same measures are being implemented in Tajikistan. Said Davlatzoda, the head of the Health Ministry’s Department of Sanitary-Epidemiological Safety, Emergency Situations and Emergency Medical Care, said orders went out that every person crossing into Tajikistan must have their body temperature measured. Workers from the department have been instructed to ask people arriving whether they are experiencing symptoms such as nausea and vomiting, headache, weakness, and muscle and joint pain. Personnel from the Sanitary-Epidemiological Safety Department have also been told to wear disposable hazmat...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team looks at Kyrgyzstan unveiling plans that would require religious bloggers to be licensed and subjected to greater state oversight; further changes to the country's regional security leadership; one of the Central Asian states launching its first satellite into space; and a new round of CSTO military exercises in Russia that could have some troubling implications for the region. We'll also be looking at Turkmenistan marking 35 years of independence with a massive military parade showcasing a range of new weapons systems, as well as a week of blackouts hitting one of Central Asia's key cities. From there, we turn to our main story this week, where we'll be joined by two experts from the World Bank to discuss a major new report examining some of the biggest economic bottlenecks facing Central Asia, where those constraints are emerging, and what governments across the region will need to do to overcome them. Special guests: - Muneeza Alam (World Bank) - Luis Blancas (World Bank)

AI Adoption

Industrial AI Reaches Kazakhstan’s Factories, but Many Projects Remain Experimental

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already monitoring mining trucks, production lines, and workplace safety at industrial sites in Kazakhstan. Yet a gap remains between a successful experiment and technology that works every day at a factory or mine. Closing it was one of the main issues discussed at the third meeting of Kazakhstan’s Council for the Development of Artificial Intelligence. A study by the British Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan, with contributions from Narxoz University and the Kazakh-British Technical University, found that 58.8% of AI projects among the industrial companies surveyed remained at the pilot stage, with none reaching full-scale deployment. The sample was small, comprising just 17 executives and specialists from several industrial sectors, so its findings cannot be extrapolated to Kazakhstan’s entire industrial sector. The responses illustrate the problems companies encounter after their first experiments with AI. Respondents most often cited a shortage of in-house specialists and expertise, followed by implementation costs. Yet 70.6% of completed pilots cost less than $50,000. The greater expense can come when the technology has to be integrated with existing equipment, data, and production processes. The government’s 2025–26 roadmap covers 41 projects at 11 major industrial enterprises. They include Qarmet, which operates the country’s largest steelworks in Temirtau; copper producers Kazakhmys and KAZ Minerals; gold producer Solidcore Eurasia; and mining and metals group Eurasian Resources Group (ERG). Industrial AI Acceleration has become one testing ground for deploying artificial intelligence directly at industrial sites. More than 12 companies submitted over 140 problems for AI teams to tackle, including equipment maintenance, safety, and procurement. Of 24 pilot projects initiated under the program, seven have reached industrial operation. Some technologies have already made it onto factory floors and into mines. ERG uses its manufacturing execution system, ERG MES, to monitor production in real time. It collects data on output, technological processes, production losses, and equipment downtime. The Ministry of Industry and Construction estimates the economic effect at around 1.5 billion tenge, or approximately $3.39 million at the official exchange rate on October 2. At KAZ Minerals’ Aktogay copper mine in eastern Kazakhstan, AI is used to manage the movement of mining trucks. Solidcore Eurasia uses the technology in medical examinations for employees working in hazardous production environments. The Council also discussed the bureaucratic obstacles that can hold up successful projects. After a pilot, companies can face further approvals and testing, along with procurement and regulatory hurdles. Tokayev proposed avoiding the entire testing cycle again when a solution has already demonstrated results at a company operating under similar production conditions. The government and Samruk-Kazyna are to select companies for wider AI deployment. Samruk-Kazyna is Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, which manages state assets across major industries. The government also wants production workers to identify problems for developers. Engineers and operators see equipment downtime, product defects, and wasted materials firsthand. These problems are to form a list of practical challenges for technology companies and researchers. The list is intended in part to guide Qazaq AI Research University, a specialized university...

Avaza Summit

Central Asia and Azerbaijan Head to Avaza for First Formal Summit

On Thursday, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov is due to receive Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Sadyr Japarov, Emomali Rahmon, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Ilham Aliyev in a place built to impress visitors. Thursday’s meeting will be the first formal consultative summit since Azerbaijan joined the format as a full participant in November 2025. The six presidents have already met once in the new configuration, at an informal gathering in Cholpon Ata on July 31, where they signed a declaration covering closer cooperation on transport, energy, trade, and security. Construction of Avaza began in late 2007, as Turkmenistan sought to create a national showcase on its Caspian coast. The resort’s hotels and sanatoria sit among parks and entertainment complexes, while eleven road and foot bridges span a seven-kilometer artificial canal. According to official figures, its hotels and recreation facilities can accommodate more than 10,000 vacationers. State institutions send employees there for summer holidays, echoing the Soviet tradition of workplace-organized vacations. These holidays help fill a resort where the seasonal rhythms differ sharply from everyday life in neighboring Turkmenbashi. Officially, Avaza is a district of Turkmenbashi, a city of around 90,000 residents located 580 kilometers west of Ashgabat across the Karakum Desert. The working city's economy is built around oil refining, the port, and transport. The Turkmenbashi International Seaport traces its history to 1896 and was rebuilt on a large scale before reopening in its current form in 2018. The Turkmenbashi refinery complex was founded in 1943 and remains one of the country's main oil-processing centers. The city itself was known as Krasnovodsk until 1993, when it was renamed Turkmenbashi after the title used by then-President Saparmurat Niyazov. The sea that was supposed to be Avaza's main attraction is now retreating from it. In 2024, one visitor told RFE/RL that the shoreline was 25-30 meters farther away than when his family had swum there three years earlier. A correspondent found hotels creating new beach areas farther out, while dredging was underway near the port. By September 2026, shallower water was forcing some ferries to carry lighter loads and pushing ports around the sea into costly dredging and berth work. The effects are already visible along the coast where the leaders will meet. [caption id="attachment_57713" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The Avaza resort on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast, where the five Central Asian presidents and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev are due to meet on October 8.[/caption] Turkmenistan is also hosting Caspian-focused meetings around the leaders' gathering, while the October 8 agenda includes climate, water, trade, energy, transport, and regional security. At the November 2025 summit in Tashkent, the five Central Asian presidents unanimously approved Azerbaijan’s admission as a full participant, extending the grouping across the Caspian into the South Caucasus. Aliyev has been careful to mark the change. At the informal meeting in Cholpon Ata on July 31, he said: "I previously participated as a guest of honor, but today I am taking part as a full member of the team." The format dates to 2018 and was deliberately light on bureaucracy....