Kazakhstan Featurees - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Security

Kazakhstan Seeds Clouds as Kyrgyzstan Questions Regional Impact

A small aircraft climbed out of Turkestan airport on July 10 with hygroscopic salt flares fixed beneath its wings. Operated by the United Arab Emirates’ National Center of Meteorology, it was searching for a cloud suitable for seeding. Pilot Ahmed Aljaberi described the aircraft as “specifically equipped with a cloud-seeding flare system.” But no suitable cloud appeared during the mission. Cloud seeding can try to draw more rain from an existing cloud, but it cannot make one from clear air. Kazakhstan launched the project in Turkestan on May 16, targeting more than 911,000 hectares of arable land in the country’s leading cotton-belt. The government puts the potential economic benefit at up to 35 billion tenge, roughly $75 million a year. The partnership gives Kazakhstan access to decades of Emirati experience in weather modification. The UAE program dates to the late 1980s, and Emirati specialists are training Kazakh meteorologists, pilots, engineers, and other staff. Kazakhstan’s government describes the Turkestan operation as the first project of its scale in the region, though weather modification in Central Asia has a longer history. Kochkunbek Bakirov, a geographer at Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, has described Soviet-era research in the Karshi steppe, the Naryn basin, and over Issyk-Kul. Kazakhstan also trialed a different approach in Mangystau in 2021, using an ionization-based system promoted as a way to increase rainfall. Its developer claimed the equipment had begun to influence local moisture. The Mangystau system used ionization; the current program uses aircraft and hygroscopic salt flares. Before operations began, Kazhydromet analyzed data from 39 meteorological stations covering 2020 through 2024, selecting the Turkestan Region after studying atmospheric conditions and terrain. Flights only proceed when naturally formed cumulonimbus clouds with sufficient vertical development are present, with Kazhydromet monitoring satellite imagery, synoptic data, and cloud development before operations. The aircraft releases salt-based particles into suitable clouds. Kazakhstan’s Ecology Ministry lists sodium chloride, potassium chloride, and magnesium compounds among the reagents. In hygroscopic seeding, the particles encourage liquid droplets to collide and coalesce, which can improve precipitation efficiency in a suitable cloud. The cloud and its moisture must already exist. By July 13, crews had completed eleven operational flights, mainly over the Otyrar and Sozak districts. Officials were still analyzing the results of each operation; the number of flights does not show how much extra rain the project has produced. Kazakhstan’s launch materials cite a possible 10 to 20% increase in precipitation under favorable conditions. Results elsewhere vary widely. A 2024 review by the U.S. Government Accountability Office found estimates of 0 to 20% additional precipitation in the studies it examined. The GAO also found that effectiveness remains difficult to evaluate and that suitable clouds must be present. The evidence is much stronger for some cloud-seeding methods than for others. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the strongest recent causal evidence comes from wintertime glaciogenic seeding of orographic clouds, while Kazakhstan is using hygroscopic salts in convective clouds. Their large natural variability creates a weak signal-to-noise problem, making the added...

Former Presidents

What Do Former Presidents Do? From Akayev to Nazarbayev, the Fates of Central Asia’s Ex-Leaders

Central Asia has produced remarkably few former presidents who simply retired from public life. In Kyrgyzstan, former leaders have been driven from office, prosecuted, imprisoned, or forced into exile. Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev has followed a different path, largely withdrawing from public view after losing much of his political influence. Elsewhere, some of the region’s founding presidents died in office, leaving no post-presidential career to examine. The Times of Central Asia has previously examined how political succession has developed across the region. The fate of leaders after they leave office reveals another side of that political tradition. The architect of Kyrgyzstan’s early post-Soviet political model was its first president, Askar Akayev, who remained in office until 2005. Akayev introduced democratic institutions in Kyrgyzstan, but gradually tightened the pressure on his opponents as his presidency progressed. His rule was badly shaken by the Aksy shootings in 2002, which followed the prosecution of opposition lawmaker Azimbek Beknazarov and a territorial dispute with China. Akayev’s government had agreed to transfer disputed border territory to China, a decision fiercely criticized by the opposition. In March 2002, demonstrators in southern Kyrgyzstan demanded Akayev’s impeachment. Security forces opened fire during the unrest, killing several people. The shootings became one of the defining political crises of his presidency. In a 2003 referendum, Akayev significantly strengthened presidential powers at parliament’s expense. Economic hardship, unemployment, widespread corruption, and allegations of fraud in the 2005 parliamentary elections eventually helped trigger the Tulip Revolution in March of that year. Akayev had to flee, with rumors at the time claiming that he was smuggled out in the trunk of an official car, wrapped in a carpet. Criminal cases involving corruption were opened against him and members of his family in Kyrgyzstan. The authorities repeatedly sought his extradition from Russia, but were unsuccessful. After leaving Kyrgyzstan, Akayev lived in Moscow and taught at Moscow State University. In 2006, he became a foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In August 2021, Akayev reappeared in Bishkek. He unexpectedly flew into the country and was immediately questioned as part of the criminal investigation into corruption surrounding the Kumtor gold mine. Afterward, he said he had come to Bishkek for a week and was prepared to assist investigators. “I came to speak honestly and sincerely about how we built Kumtor, why we built it, and what mistakes may have been made. The investigation will continue,” he said. In 2023, Kyrgyzstan’s Prosecutor General’s Office announced that the criminal prosecution of Akayev had been terminated because the statute of limitations had expired. Tajikistan’s former president Rahmon Nabiyev was also forced from power. The former Soviet politician lost power amid the country’s civil war in 1992. He died at his home in Khujand the following year, at the age of 62, reportedly from a heart attack. According to his wife, Nabiyev spent his final months in Khujand in conditions resembling house arrest and received a pension of just five rubles. While Tajikistan did not repeat the experiment of violently...

Cybersecurity

Kazakhstan Examines Data Leak Claim Involving 15 Million People

A database allegedly containing the personal information of 15 million people in Kazakhstan has appeared on the dark web. The seller is asking 0.5 bitcoin, about $32,000, for a dataset containing tens of millions of records. The seller claims the information was obtained after hacking the government’s eGov portal. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development has not confirmed that account. Specialists are examining samples of the database and trying to determine where the data came from. The sale was reported by the Russian Telegram channel Mash. According to the channel, the file is about 2.7 GB and contains 47 million rows. Its description lists passport details, phone numbers, email addresses, places of employment, passwords, and scans of documents. The claim that the database contains information on 15 million people has not been independently confirmed. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development disputes the allegation that eGov was hacked. It said a preliminary review had found no evidence that government e-services were breached, and that officials were examining samples of the data to determine where they came from. The ministry has also questioned parts of the database description. For example, eGov does not store scanned copies of passports in the form described by the seller, while digital documents have a different structure. The allegation follows at least two other major cases involving personal data in the past 14 months. In June 2025, around 16 million records containing the names, individual identification numbers, addresses, and phone numbers of Kazakhstani citizens were found to be publicly accessible. The Health Ministry later said the dataset had been compiled from various sources, possibly including the information systems of medical organizations. It said any information originating from medical systems dated from before April 1, 2024. The Digital Ministry later reported that the investigation had found no signs of a direct hack. According to the ministry, much of the information had been extracted in 2022, possibly by someone with legitimate access to personal data or by a third party using credentials that had been shared or stolen. The investigation into that leak has still not been completed. In April 2026, the National Security Committee said the criminal case remained under investigation. The agency disclosed no further details, citing the confidentiality of the investigation. The allegation comes just two months after police seized another large database containing personal information on nearly 16 million Kazakhstanis from employees of a collection agency in the Zhetysu region. It is not known whether the two datasets are connected. Investigators must therefore establish whether the database offered for sale is authentic and how recent its contents are. The 2025 case showed how information from different sources and different years can be combined into a single database, meaning a large file offered for sale does not necessarily represent a new breach. There is reason to take such reports seriously. According to KZ-CERT data cited by research agency Finprom, Kazakhstan recorded 9,400 information security incidents in the first three months of 2026. Nearly...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Vance Personally Asked Zelensky to Halt CPC-Linked Tanker Strikes, FT Reports

U.S. Vice President JD Vance personally asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 31 to halt attacks on oil tankers serving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk, the Financial Times reported on August 12. Citing Ukrainian officials and others familiar with the call, the newspaper said Kyiv had agreed not to target CPC infrastructure or non-Russian vessels unless they were under Ukrainian sanctions or carrying Russian oil or other Russian cargo. Ukraine has not struck tankers near the CPC terminal since the July 31 call. Vance’s intervention came after repeated July attacks had disrupted Kazakhstan’s main oil-export route, halted loading several times, and forced producers to cut output. Washington was also concerned that the attacks were destabilizing oil markets and harming U.S. commercial interests. A U.S. official confirmed to the FT that Washington had warned Kyiv against attacks on non-Russian vessels and CPC infrastructure, describing the pipeline as “a vital conduit of Kazakhstan-origin energy for European markets” and an alternative to Russian energy supplies. The latest incidents before the call came on July 30, when two more tankers were attacked. NISSOS SIFNOS was struck while loading Tengizchevroil crude at CPC’s SPM-3 mooring, while MARATHI was attacked while awaiting a berth about six nautical miles offshore, forcing CPC to stop loading again. The Vance-Zelensky call took place the following day. Washington had already warned Kyiv about attacks affecting U.S. and Kazakh economic interests. Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington at the time, Olha Stefanishyna, disclosed in February that the State Department had delivered a formal démarche after an earlier strike on Novorossiysk. On July 23, Representative Bill Huizenga, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, told TCA that Ukraine had an obligation to avoid legitimate allied energy exports and infrastructure, and that further strikes would "not be tolerated." The Wall Street Journal later reported that Chevron CEO Mike Wirth had raised the tanker attacks with Trump administration officials, after which Washington cautioned Ukraine against targeting non-Russian vessels in the Black Sea. By early August, the disruption was showing clearly in export data. Reuters reported on August 7 that CPC loadings in July fell more than 20% behind schedule to around 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels per day. The reduction amounted to a loss of about 400,000 barrels per day of CPC Blend from international markets in July. Kazakhstan’s oil production fell 14% in July from June. CPC is the dominant route for Kazakhstan’s oil exports and normally handles roughly 1.5 million to 1.7 million barrels per day. The 1,511-kilometer pipeline runs from the Tengiz field through Russia to the Black Sea. Its shareholder structure also gives U.S. companies a substantial direct interest: Chevron owns 15%, while Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company, an ExxonMobil affiliate, owns 7.5%. Responsibility for the individual tanker attacks has remained politically sensitive. Russia has blamed Ukraine. Kyiv has not publicly claimed responsibility for attacks on vessels carrying predominantly Kazakh crude. According to the FT, the July 31 call resulted in a...

Growth Forecasts

Why Central Asia Growth Forecasts Differ So Sharply

How fast can Central Asia continue to grow? The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) give markedly different answers. The contrast is sharpest in Kyrgyzstan, where the EDB expects another year of double-digit growth, while the IMF sees a much more pronounced slowdown. Both institutions are looking at the same countries and have access to broadly the same set of macroeconomic data. Their forecasts, however, reflect different assessments of how much of Central Asia’s recent momentum can be sustained. The EDB expects strong investment to keep growth high, while the IMF is more cautious about how long the recent pace of expansion can continue. The EDB is itself a regional development institution. It was established by Russia and Kazakhstan in 2006, with Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan later becoming shareholders. Uzbekistan joined the bank in 2025. The EDB is headquartered in Almaty. The comparison covers the four Central Asian states that are EDB members; Turkmenistan is not included. Its latest forecast for Central Asia is optimistic. In 2026, the EDB expects growth of 10.2% in Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% in Tajikistan, 7.9% in Uzbekistan, and 5.5% in Kazakhstan. The region’s economy as a whole is expected to grow by more than 6.5%, with its combined GDP exceeding $600 billion for the first time. The IMF gives lower figures. Its latest available country projections put 2026 growth at 4.6% for Kazakhstan, 6.8% for Uzbekistan, 6.1% for Kyrgyzstan, and 6.0% for Tajikistan. These projections were published at different times rather than as a single set of four country forecasts. The largest gap is in Kyrgyzstan, where the forecasts differ by 4.1 percentage points, but there are nevertheless modest percentage point gaps between the forecasts for Tajikistan (2.3), Uzbekistan (1.1), and Kazakhstan (0.9). These differences are large enough to raise the question: why the difference in expectations? Part of the answer lies in how the institutions assess the effect of a more uncertain global economy. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Its July update said the conflict in the Middle East was weighing particularly heavily on energy importers and warned that renewed conflict or financial-market disruption could weaken the outlook. For the four countries, this means different things. Kazakhstan exports oil and benefits from high prices, although it also depends on the condition of export routes and external demand. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan import a significant share of their fuel, while their economies are closely linked to migrant remittances. Uzbekistan has a larger domestic market and its own resource base. Kazakhstan illustrates the logic of the IMF forecast particularly well. Its GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025, one of its strongest performances in recent years. The Fund does not expect that surge to be repeated. Oil production is expected to stabilize after last year’s increase, with growth slowing to 4.6% in 2026, according to the IMF forecast. This does not mean that the Fund attributes everything to oil. Domestic demand remains strong,...

Artificial Intelligence

From Walking Robots to AI Errors: A Kazakh Researcher’s Path to Intelligent Systems

What should a robot do after making a mistake? The answer becomes more complicated when the person nearby does not explicitly say something has gone wrong, but merely hesitates, looks confused, or begins to lose trust in the machine. This is one of the problems currently being studied by Kazakh researcher Arman Ibrayeva. Over several years, her scientific interests have developed from mechanics and walking robots to autonomous navigation, medical robotics, and human interaction with intelligent systems. In June 2026, Ibrayeva was among the authors of REPAIR-Bench, a new research benchmark for studying how people respond to robot errors and how interaction can be restored after a failure. The researchers conducted 214 interaction trials involving 41 participants, recording speech, facial expressions, head movements, and users’ preferred responses to different robot failures. The task goes beyond simply detecting a failure. A robot working alongside people needs to understand how its mistake has changed a person’s behavior. One user may become irritated, another confused, while a third may try to repeat the action. The robot’s response should depend on that reaction. For Ibrayeva, this is a continuation of a scientific career that began not with generative AI, but with mechanics. She studied mechanics at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, receiving her bachelor’s degree in 2018 and master’s degree in 2020. She then continued her studies at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) in Saudi Arabia, where she conducted research in mechanical engineering. Her official KAUST profile lists robotics, mechanical engineering, and machine learning among her research interests. One of the early areas of her work was walking machines. Ibrayeva studied how their design could be simplified and the number of actuators reduced without losing the required range of movement. Such an approach can reduce energy consumption and simplify robot control. At a robotics conference at KAUST in 2022, she presented a walking robot design with decoupled limb motion. Agriculture was cited as one possible application because heavy wheeled machinery compacts soil and can damage plants. The walking mechanism was designed to move over uneven terrain while placing less load on its actuators. This work later developed into research combining classical mechanics, numerical optimization, and machine learning. A 2025 paper co-authored by Ibrayeva describes several physical prototypes of walking robots, tests on uneven surfaces, and the use of LiDAR for autonomous navigation. Another area was medical robotics. Ibrayeva took part in research on a lower-limb exoskeleton. The authors sought a design capable of reproducing the movements of the human leg with less mechanical complexity and more efficient force transmission. She also worked on autonomous navigation for service robots in rehabilitation medicine. A 2024 study examined a system using 3D LiDAR that allows a robot to map its surroundings, determine its position, and avoid obstacles while moving through a medical facility. At first glance, a walking machine for agriculture, a rehabilitation exoskeleton, and a robot interacting with a person belong to different fields. Yet all these projects involve the same practical problem: a...