Kazakhstan Featurees - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle East Crisis

U.S. Strikes on Iranian Rail and Coastal Infrastructure Put Central Asia’s Southern Routes Under Pressure

U.S. strikes on Iranian rail and coastal infrastructure have put Central Asia's southern transport plans under new pressure. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have spent years building routes through Iran to reach the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and markets beyond Russia. Public statements so far do not show a confirmed halt in Central Asian freight, but bridge damage near Iran's border with Turkmenistan and strikes along Iran's southern coast have made the security picture more concrete. Reports and a video posted on July 9 showed damage to the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge, on Iran's rail link to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, after overnight U.S. strikes. Reuters said it verified the location by matching the bridge, riverbank, road, fields, and nearby town with satellite imagery, and found no earlier versions of the video online. Iran's Revolutionary Guard-linked Neynava Corps in Golestan said the area around the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge in Aq Qala County was targeted by U.S. cruise missiles early on July 9, with no casualties reported. The bridge sits on the Gorgan-Incheh Borun railway line, which reaches the Incheh Borun border crossing with Turkmenistan and links onward to Kazakhstan. Head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways, Jabar-Ali Zakeri, said engineers had rebuilt one damaged track on the Mashhad route and returned it to service in less than 15 hours, according to Fars News Agency. He said work on a second damaged line was continuing and was expected to finish within hours. That statement concerned the Mashhad route, however, and does not confirm the status of the Gorgan-Incheh Borun line. The route sits inside a wider transport effort that Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, China, and Russia have all tried to expand. TCA has previously reported on a 2024 test container train on the China-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran route, which ran from Xi'an to Tehran. It carried 45 forty-foot containers loaded with auto parts and cut the China-Iran delivery time to 15 days. The Gorgan-Incheh Borun railroad was inaugurated in December 2014, linking Iran to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan along the eastern side of the Caspian Sea. The wider Uzen-Bereket-Gorgan route runs for more than 900 kilometers from western Kazakhstan through Turkmenistan into northern Iran. It connects Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan’s rail networks to Iran’s system and onward to the Persian Gulf and Asian markets. The U.S. military has framed the latest strikes as a response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. U.S. Central Command said on July 8 that its forces had struck about 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran's coastline. CENTCOM said the operation was designed “to further degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz.” The coastal security picture also impacts Kazakhstan through Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas. On June 28, Kazakhstan and Iran signed a 27-year Build-Operate-Transfer agreement for a Kazakh transport and logistics terminal there. The Kazakh embassy in Tehran said the deal...

Energy Investment

Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector Without Local Business: The Anatomy of Major Projects

In late June 2026, construction began on a 1 GW wind power plant in Kazakhstan’s Zhambyl Region. The project is valued at $1.4 billion. Companies based in the United Arab Emirates, Masdar and W Solar, hold 80% of the project, while Kazakhstan’s quasi-state sector holds the remaining 20% through Qazaq Green Power and the Kazakhstan Investment Development Fund. This ownership model has become typical across Kazakhstan’s energy industry. Nearly all major new energy infrastructure projects rely on foreign capital. The country’s largest renewable energy developments involve international investors, including France’s TotalEnergies and Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power. Even when agreements collapse, the government continues to rely on foreign partners. After financing problems ended cooperation with Russia’s Inter RAO, construction of new thermal power plants in Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk was quickly reassigned to a Kazakh-Singapore consortium. A similar pattern appears across the sector: foreign investors provide most of the capital and technology, while Kazakhstan’s state-linked companies take minority stakes through Samruk-Kazyna or its subsidiaries This has created an unusual situation. Despite an acute shortage of generating capacity and guaranteed long-term demand, Kazakhstan’s largest private businesses have largely stayed away from electricity generation. Instead, domestic capital continues to favor sectors with greater liquidity and shorter investment horizons, ranging from finance to residential real estate. The reasons lie in straightforward economics, where financing costs and regulatory conditions outweigh the sector’s potential returns. The Financial Equation Power generation is one of the most capital-intensive infrastructure industries, with investment payback periods typically ranging from 10 to 15 years. Such projects require access to long-term financing at low interest rates. For Kazakhstan’s private sector, those financing instruments are largely unavailable. Under the National Bank’s tight monetary policy, with the benchmark interest rate standing at 17%, commercial borrowing costs for businesses routinely exceed 20% annually. Financing the construction of a power plant with local-currency loans at those rates is, mathematically, unviable. Such projects are virtually guaranteed to become unprofitable. Rather than engaging in complex, long-term infrastructure financing, Kazakhstan’s banking sector has increasingly concentrated on faster and more profitable lending. Official statistics from the National Bank of Kazakhstan illustrate this imbalance. As of May 2026, banks’ claims on households had reached approximately $60 billion, while lending to non-financial private enterprises, the real economy,stood at about $29 billion, less than half that amount. In practice, commercial banks have largely withdrawn from financing major industrial investment projects, preferring consumer lending with higher liquidity and quicker returns. Foreign corporations, meanwhile, enter Kazakhstan with access to international capital markets. They secure financing from global development institutions or sovereign wealth funds in their home countries at significantly lower borrowing costs. As a result, domestic private investors often lose the competitive race before projects even reach the investment decision stage. Unequal Conditions for Investors A second obstacle for domestic investors lies in Kazakhstan’s regulatory framework. Electricity tariffs have historically been kept under government control to limit inflationary pressures and avoid sharp increases in household utility bills and production costs. To attract major international energy companies,...

TCA Interviews

Kazakhstan Seeking to Turn Transit Routes Into Investment Growth, Vice Minister Says

The development of transport and logistics has become one of the main priorities of Kazakhstan's economic policy as the country seeks to turn its position between China, Russia, the Caspian Sea, and Europe into long-term growth. Government transport data show the broader transport and warehousing sector grew in January-May 2026, although rail freight and cargo turnover remained under pressure. Large-scale rail, road, port, warehouse, and digital projects now sit at the center of that effort. The sector requires tens of billions of dollars in investment, while the reshaping of Eurasian supply chains since 2022 has raised the importance of the Middle Corridor and Caspian-linked routes. Can Kazakhstan attract the capital needed to implement large-scale infrastructure projects? How will changing investment priorities affect regional development? And how could new investment reshape the country's transport market? The Times of Central Asia discussed these questions with Maksat Kaliakparov, vice minister of transport of the Republic of Kazakhstan. TCA: How would you assess the current investment attractiveness of Kazakhstan's transport sector? How much foreign investment has the industry attracted recently? Maksat Kaliakparov: The investment attractiveness of the sector is high and continues to strengthen. In 2025 alone, gross foreign direct investment into Kazakhstan's economy reached $20.5 billion, an increase of 14.4% compared with the previous year. Investment is increasingly flowing into transport and logistics alongside manufacturing, digital infrastructure, and the financial sector. The transportation and warehousing sector was among the country's fastest-growing industries in January-May 2026, expanding by 8.4%. Investor interest is also reflected in the fact that, in 2025, Kazakhstan signed 88 commercial agreements worth more than $69.5 billion with partners from China, the UAE, the United States, and European countries. A significant share of these funds will be directed toward transport and logistics projects. More broadly, Kazakhstan's investment policy framework includes a target of increasing annual foreign direct investment inflows to $25.5 billion while raising investment in fixed capital to 25.1% of GDP. TCA: Which segments of the industry are currently attracting the greatest investor interest: railways, highways, aviation, ports, warehousing, or digital logistics? Which areas will require the largest investments in the coming years? Maksat Kaliakparov: Investor interest is spread across several major segments. Railways remain a key priority. Kazakhstan is implementing modernization and new construction projects, including the recently commissioned Dostyk-Moyynty railway section, as well as the Darbaza-Maktaaral and Moyynty-Kyzylzhar lines. By 2030, the country plans to build or modernize approximately 5,000 kilometers of railway infrastructure. Maritime and port logistics are also attracting substantial investment. Expansion is underway at the ports of Aktau and Kuryk, while a new container hub in Aktau is being built with the participation of China's Lianyungang Port Group. The project is expected to increase capacity to 240,000 TEU by the end of 2026. Road infrastructure has secured a landmark private investment through the Car Park Transformer roadside service network. Warehouse and multimodal logistics continue to develop, including through Kazakhstan's terminal at Georgia's Port of Poti. Digitalization is another important area. In particular, the pilot Smart...

Middle East Crisis

Kazakhstan’s Persian Gulf Port Plan Faces New Iran Risk

Kazakhstan has moved a long-planned southern trade project from talks to contract. The move gives Astana a possible foothold on the Persian Gulf, but it comes as a second night of U.S. strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation around the Gulf states have raised the cost of using that route. On June 28, Kazakhstan and Iran signed a 27-year BOT agreement to build a Kazakh transport and logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas. The contract gives the project two years for construction and 25 years for operation, with commercial activity expected in the third year. Aman Malgazhdarov of QazExportPromotion signed for Kazakhstan, and Hossein Abbas Nejad of Hormozgan’s Ports and Maritime Organization signed for Iran. The project is designed to plug Kazakhstan into the International North-South Transport Corridor and widen export access to the Persian Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and East Africa. The $25 million investment covers a 15-hectare logistics center that could handle 1.5 million tons of goods a year. Mohammad Shakibi-Nasab, the head of Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization, said it would “create jobs… increase the operational capacity” of Shahid Rajaee and “boost ports along the North-South corridor.” Malgazhdarov called it the “core of a future Kazakh port” within Shahid Rajaee. That ambition now sits beside a worsening security picture. On July 8, U.S. President Donald Trump declared the interim agreement to end the Iran war “over” after attacks on three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Asked about the deal, Trump said: “It’s over. I don’t want to deal with them.” The U.S. then launched a new round of strikes, and Iran fired on U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. U.S. Central Command said the attacks were meant to “further degrade” Iran’s ability to threaten navigation in the strait, with Trump warning, “If it happens again, it will get much worse!” By July 9, the U.S. military said it had struck 170 Iranian targets in 48 hours. Iran had fired at U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, and Iran’s health ministry said U.S. strikes on July 7 and 8 killed 14 people and wounded 78. The attacks hit Bandar Abbas, where Shahid Rajaee is located, and other southern coastal areas. Crude oil prices rose by 5% as the risk widened. For Kazakhstan, the timing is uncomfortable. Shahid Rajaee sits near the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the open sea. The port offers one of Central Asia’s shortest southern outlets, but the approach depends on a zone where security, insurance premiums, and naval risk can change quickly. A terminal can lower handling costs and improve control over cargo, but it cannot remove war risk at the maritime end of the corridor. The risk may not be limited to the Gulf. The Financial Times reported that a railway bridge near Aqqala in Golestan Province was hit with cruise missiles, citing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The bridge lies on the Gorgan-Incheh Borun line, which carries passengers and cargo...

South Caucasus

As Azerbaijan Pushes Back Against Moscow, Central Asia Watches

The recent diplomatic escalation between Azerbaijan and Russia appeared to have run its course in April, after Moscow agreed to pay compensation over the Azerbaijan Airlines crash in Kazakhstan. Instead, the dispute has entered a new phase, and its implications now reach beyond the South Caucasus. On July 6, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Russian Ambassador Mikhail Yevdokimov and handed him a formal note of protest over what Baku described as a Russian drone strike on a fuel station owned by Azerbaijan’s state energy company SOCAR in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region on the evening of July 5. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said the attack on SOCAR facilities in Ukraine was not an isolated incident. It cited previous strikes on the company’s gas distribution compressor station and oil depot in Odesa, which caused material damage and injured employees. Baku also pointed to earlier damage to the Azerbaijani embassy building in Kyiv and the honorary consulate in Kharkiv, calling on Moscow to investigate and comply with its obligations to protect civilian infrastructure and diplomatic missions. At the same time, Shusha — known to Armenians as Shushi, retaken by Azerbaijan during the 2020 Karabakh war, and still regarded by many Armenians as occupied — hosted an international conference devoted to what participants described as Russia’s “colonial policy,” the “Circassian genocide,” and the situation of non-Russian peoples within the Russian Federation. The conference declaration called on Moscow to “recognize its historical crimes, abandon its chauvinistic policies, and end the forced recruitment of ethnic minorities into the war against Ukraine.” Experts from Azerbaijan, the United States, France, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Israel, Türkiye, and Georgia attended the conference. None of the Central Asian republics was represented. That absence was telling. Central Asian governments may be distancing themselves from Moscow in certain areas, but they remain reluctant to participate in openly anti-Russian political initiatives. For Astana, Tashkent, Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Ashgabat, the question is not whether Russia’s position has weakened, but how far they can move without provoking pressure from Moscow. For Central Asia, the dispute is not a distant quarrel in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is now a central link in the westward routes that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan are trying to strengthen as alternatives to Russian territory. The Middle Corridor runs from China through Central Asia, across the Caspian Sea, and onward through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye to Europe. Any deterioration in Azerbaijan-Russia relations therefore has practical implications for Central Asian transit, energy, and diplomatic room for maneuver. The first major rupture in relations between Baku and Moscow came after Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, traveling from Baku to Grozny, was damaged by Russian air-defense fire over Russian territory on December 25, 2024. The aircraft later crashed while attempting an emergency landing near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. Azerbaijan blamed Russia and demanded an apology, accountability, and compensation. Relations deteriorated further in June 2025 following the detention of ethnic Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg and reports of torture. The most prominent victims were the...

Energy Security

Central Asia’s Fuel Squeeze Becomes a Winter Energy Security Problem

Central Asia’s fuel squeeze is moving from filling stations into winter planning. Governments are now tracking gasoline and diesel, gas pipelines, coal deliveries, power imports, jet fuel, and emergency repair crews. Seasonal fuel and power stress is familiar across the region, but the current pressure - tied to Russia, the main supplier for several regional fuel flows - has arrived early. Russia’s own fuel crisis has sharpened the risk. Ukrainian drone attacks and repair work have cut refinery output, while export limits have pushed more Russian supplies back into the domestic market. Reuters reported queues, regional restrictions, and gasoline above 100 roubles a liter at some independent stations. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the strain on June 28. “You are well aware that problems for drivers and for businesses persist,” he said, adding that “the harvest depends on” keeping seasonal fuel schedules for farms. For Central Asia, Russian shortages travel through contracts, rail slots, import prices, and public nerves. Kyrgyzstan is among the most exposed. The country consumes about two million tons of fuels and lubricants each year, and almost 95% comes from Russia, according to Deputy Energy Minister Nasipbek Kerimov. “Due to the lack of adequate oil and gas production, we remain a country dependent on imports,” Kerimov said. Bishkek has asked Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan for help securing supplies. That dependence is now impacting households, farmers, and small transport firms. The cabinet has capped pump prices and set a subsidy mechanism through September 30. Kerimov said importers were seeing offers at several prices, but promised that “there should be no shortage on the domestic market.” Oil traders put AI-92 stocks at 30 to 45 days, while diesel remained available for harvest work. Kyrgyzstan is trying to buy time through domestic refining. The modernized Junda refinery in the Chuy Region has been pressed to raise gasoline output to 24,000 tons a month soon, then 50,000 tons a month by the end of 2026, with finished products directed to the domestic market. Those gains would help, but Russian supply still sets the pace. Uzbekistan has the Bukhara and Fergana oil refineries, the Altyaryk unit of the Fergana refinery, and the Uzbekistan GTL complex, but demand has still moved faster than domestic supply. In January-April 2026, gasoline imports reached 568,700 tons, worth $327.1 million, more than double the same period in 2025. Local refineries produced 417,500 tons over those four months. A shift away from AI-80 gasoline has also pushed drivers toward AI-92 and AI-95. The pressure reached the exchange in late June. AI-92 gasoline climbed to a record 13.919 million soums per ton on June 29, about $1,160, after an 11.8% rise since the start of the month. Jet fuel has become an issue, too. Uzbekistan Airways reduced some Russia flight frequencies in June, citing aviation fuel shortages and higher costs. Tashkent is now preparing for winter in concrete volumes. On July 6, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev reviewed measures for the 2026-2027 autumn-winter season. The plan includes replacing 53.7...