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Aral Sea

Aral Sea Restoration Could Prevent 605 Million Tons of CO2 Emissions

The drying of the Aral Sea has created another environmental problem: according to a study, exposed lakebed sediments released about 748 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere between 1960 and 2022. Organic carbon remains stored in the sediments, and restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. This gives efforts to restore the Aral Sea region a new climate dimension. The study, conducted by an international team of researchers led by scientists from Spain’s Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), was published in Science on July 16. The findings add another consideration to restoration efforts already underway across the region, from refilling part of the sea in Kazakhstan to planting saxaul and rehabilitating degraded land in Uzbekistan. The Aral Sea’s Carbon Legacy When the Aral Sea was still a fully-fledged body of water, plants and algae absorbed carbon dioxide, while some organic matter settled on the lakebed. As the water retreated, those sediments were exposed to the air, organic matter began to decompose, and the stored carbon started returning to the atmosphere as CO2. At the same time, winds carry salt and dust from the newly formed Aralkum Desert, spreading the consequences of the sea’s disappearance far beyond its former shoreline. In 2022, researchers conducted an expedition to the dried Aral Sea bed, collecting sediment samples and measuring how much CO2 was being released. Combined with satellite data, this allowed them to estimate carbon losses as the sea retreated. According to the researchers’ calculations, exposed sediments lost about 204 million tons of carbon between 1960 and 2022, equivalent to roughly 748 million tons of CO2. New vegetation growing on the dried lakebed has offset less than 1% of those emissions. A significant amount of organic carbon remains in the sediments. The researchers estimate that restoring water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. The authors also considered the economics of such an effort. Using 2024 voluntary carbon market prices for land-use and forestry projects as a benchmark, they estimate that the avoided emissions could potentially be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits. That money could theoretically become one source of funding for ecosystem restoration. Researchers estimate that about $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could increase inflows enough to restore roughly half of the area covered by the Aral Sea in 1960, while potentially generating about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits. Restoring the Entire Aral Sea Is No Longer the Goal Under current conditions, fully restoring the sea is widely considered unrealistic. The central issue is water. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya flow through several Central Asian countries. Significantly increasing the amount of water reaching the Aral Sea would be impossible without basin-wide agreements, irrigation modernization, and reductions in water losses. This is why restoration of the Aral Sea remains a regional issue rather than solely an Uzbek or Kazakh one. Central Asian countries coordinate part of this work...

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Bipartisan U.S. Congressional Visit Highlights Expanding Partnership with Kazakhstan

A bipartisan six-member delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana on August 25, two days after Kazakhstan elected the first members of its new unicameral Kurultai. Tokayev called the timing symbolic and proposed closer dialogue between Congress and the new legislature. The delegation was led by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith and included Greg Murphy, Carol Miller, Ronny Jackson, Wesley Bell, and Ed Case. Smith said President Donald Trump had called him at 2 a.m., several hours before the meeting. Trump sent his regards, expressed appreciation for his relationship with Tokayev, and said he looked forward to the Kazakh president’s visit to Miami for the G20 summit. Smith said one purpose of the visit was to explore opportunities to expand economic ties and pursue a substantive bilateral dialogue. The visit reinforced Congress’s role in a relationship that has recently gained momentum at the presidential level. It also showed the breadth of the emerging agenda, from trade and investment to energy security, strategic supply chains, nonproliferation, and regional stability. A Delegation With Trade and Security Reach The delegation’s committee assignments closely matched that agenda. Smith, Murphy, and Miller serve on the Ways and Means Committee, which oversees trade and tariff legislation. Jackson serves on the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs, Intelligence, and Agriculture committees. Bell serves on the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs, and Oversight and Government Reform committees. Case sits on the Appropriations Committee and its Defense and Homeland Security subcommittees. That mix places delegation members on committees with jurisdiction over many of the issues now shaping the bilateral relationship. Congress can advance cooperation through trade legislation, appropriations, oversight, and support for American companies entering or expanding in Kazakhstan. Smith’s committee has jurisdiction over H.R. 1024, the bipartisan U.S.-Kazakhstan Trade Modernization Act, which would authorize the president to end the application of the Cold War-era Jackson-Vanik restrictions and extend permanent normal trade relations to Kazakhstan. Miller was among the bill’s original co-sponsors, although the issue was not mentioned in the public account of the meeting. Bipartisan congressional engagement could help translate recent presidential momentum into more durable institutional ties. Kazakhstan Has Made the U.S. Relationship a Priority From the Kazakh side, Tokayev has treated closer ties with Washington as a presidential priority. During his November 2025 visit to Washington, the two leaders welcomed commercial agreements worth more than $17 billion. Trump reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the Enhanced Strategic Partnership, while the two presidents identified new areas for cooperation. The August 25 meeting also highlighted Kazakhstan’s support for the Abraham Accords and the Board of Peace, as well as the countries’ longstanding work on nuclear security and nonproliferation. Trade, investment, advanced technology, science, education, and culture were also discussed. Tokayev’s proposal for closer dialogue between Congress and the Kurultai would strengthen the parliamentary channel alongside the relationship’s presidential and executive-level diplomacy. In January, Tokayev appointed veteran diplomat Erzhan Kazykhan as his representative for negotiations with the United States on priority bilateral issues....

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan’s North Aral Recovery Anchors Broader Environmental Push

After decades in which the Aral Sea became a global symbol of ecological collapse, Kazakhstan has achieved a measurable recovery in its northern basin. Built over two decades, the turnaround is now being linked to expanded restoration plans and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s broader Taza Kazakhstan, or “Clean Kazakhstan,” environmental agenda. According to the government, the North Aral’s volume rose from 18.9 billion cubic meters at the end of 2022 to 23 billion by the end of 2025. In July 2026, TCA reported that the Water Resources Ministry had put the volume at approximately 23.5 billion cubic meters. The recovery reflects work centered on the Kokaral Dam, completed in 2005, and management of the Syr Darya. The first phase raised water levels, reduced salinity, and helped restore fishing. Kazakhstan’s Water Resources Ministry and the World Bank have developed plans for a second phase of the restoration program. The proposed project calls for the reconstruction of the Kokaral Dam and aims to increase the sea’s volume to approximately 34 billion cubic meters and expand its surface area to around 3,900 square kilometers. The recovery described here is confined to the North Aral in Kazakhstan. The South Aral remains severely depleted, while further progress in the north depends on Syr Darya flows and cooperation with upstream states. An August 22 government review places the North Aral alongside waste management, reforestation, and environmental education under Taza Kazakhstan. Launched by Tokayev in April 2024 as a nationwide cleanup campaign, the initiative is increasingly being used as a framework for a broader environmental program. Waste Infrastructure Illegal dumping is the clearest area of reported progress. The number of identified dumping sites fell from approximately 8,600 in 2018 to 2,600 in 2026, according to the government. Satellite monitoring is being combined with public reporting through eGov Mobile and TazaQazBot. Public reports have been processed through the two services since 2024. Local authorities have been given responsibility for cleaning public areas, while penalties for illegal disposal have been strengthened. Because the 2018 baseline predates Taza Kazakhstan, the longer-term decline also reflects measures taken before the initiative. The share of municipal waste sorted or processed increased from 25.8% in 2024 to 30.6% in 2025, according to the government. Kazakhstan still faces a serious infrastructure deficit. At the end of 2024, only 20.4% of the country’s municipal waste landfills had the required documentation, while major sites in Astana and Zhezkazgan were at or beyond capacity. A 2023 plan called for 100 new landfills, but a December 2025 government update said only eight had been commissioned. The August 2026 review provided no newer landfill total, but said upgrades were planned for existing sites and additional waste sector projects were moving into operation. Large waste-processing and utilization facilities are also under development in Astana, Almaty, and the Zhambyl region. TCA has previously reported that headline processing rates do not show how much waste becomes reusable material. Only about 1.1% of municipal waste generated in 2024 was converted into secondary raw materials. The...

Kurultai Election

Final Results Give Adilet 110 Seats in Kazakhstan’s Kurultai

Kazakhstan has announced the final results of the first election to its new unicameral parliament, the Kurultai. Adilet, a party created only a few months ago, won more than 71% of the vote. Four other parties cleared the 5% threshold, while two failed to enter parliament. According to the Central Election Commission, Adilet received 6,528,948 votes, or 71.17% of the vote. Auyl came second with 6.26%, followed by Respublica with 5.56%, Aq Zhol with 5.21%, and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (OSDP) with 5.11%. The People’s Party of Kazakhstan received 3.11%, while the green Baytaq party won 1.07%. Another 2.51% of voters selected the “against all” option. The new Kurultai has 145 seats, with all deputies elected through party lists. Under the final allocation, Adilet receives 110 seats, Auyl 10, Respublica nine, and Aq Zhol and the OSDP eight each. A total of 9.35 million people voted, putting final turnout at 74.08%, compared with 54.19% in the 2023 parliamentary elections. The regional differences were substantial: official turnout reached 92.16% in the Turkestan region, but just 43.23% in Almaty. Low turnout in Kazakhstan's largest city is not new — Almaty also recorded the country's lowest figure in 2023. In its preliminary assessment, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights described the election as technically well prepared and said opening and voting largely followed established procedures. It also cited limited political pluralism, discrepancies between observed voter activity and official turnout figures, and procedural violations during the vote count. The election was the first held under Kazakhstan’s new constitutional system. The new Constitution was approved in a referendum on March 15. It was supported by 87.15% of those who voted, with turnout at 73.12%. The document entered into force on July 1, abolishing the previous Senate-Mazhilis structure and replacing it with the 145-seat Kurultai, elected entirely through party lists. Although Adilet itself is new, the party inherited much of the structure of the country’s former dominant party, Amanat. Adilet was established at a founding congress on May 7 and registered on June 1. It is led by Aibek Dadebay, a former head of the Presidential Administration. In June, Amanat – the country’s largest political party and the successor to the ruling party of the Nursultan Nazarbayev era – voted to merge into Adilet. The merger gave the new organization an extensive regional network and much of Amanat’s party apparatus. Pre-election polling had already shown Adilet with a commanding lead. In early August, a survey by the Institute of Eurasian Integration put its support at 65.1%. For the other parties, the main uncertainty was not who would win the election, but which of them would clear the 5% threshold. The People’s Party accepted the preliminary result. Baytaq initially took a different position, alleging violations and saying it would seek to establish the “real results.” However, on August 24, Baytaq leader Azamatkhan Amirtayev said he had no confirmed evidence that would give him grounds to question the voters’ choice, canceled a planned press conference,...

Data Center Valley

Can Kazakhstan Power Its AI Ambitions?

For now, it is only a vast construction site lost in the steppe, a few kilometers from Ekibastuz, a mining city in northern Kazakhstan. Cranes move behind fences in the shadow of a Soviet-era power station. It is hard to imagine that, from 2027, this site is supposed to become the first piece of a giant artificial intelligence campus. Known as Data Center Valley, the project is eventually expected to reach one gigawatt. At full capacity, it could consume as much as 8.8 terawatt-hours a year, Kazakh media Qyzyq estimated, around 7% of Kazakhstan’s current electricity generation. Development will be gradual, with an initial 50-megawatt facility scheduled to enter service in June 2027. U.S.-based Firebird.ai and state-controlled Kazakhtelecom are leading the industrial project. Yet the futuristic bet collides with a more prosaic reality. “Economic and industrial growth in Kazakhstan is currently outpacing the rate of commissioning and modernization of generating capacity,” the Ministry of Energy acknowledged in a response to The Times of Central Asia. In 2025, the gap between domestic generation and consumption reached 1.5 terawatt-hours, forcing the country to import electricity, mainly from Russia. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has acknowledged the scale of the challenge. At the National Kurultai in January, he said data centers consume electricity on a scale comparable to metallurgical plants and that Kazakhstan’s existing generation was “clearly insufficient” for its development plans. He called energy self-sufficiency a key state priority and ordered an expansion of generating capacity, including new coal-fired power. How, then, can Kazakhstan power a campus that could consume almost six times that shortfall? More strikingly, when the government prepared its 2026 electricity forecast, neither Data Center Valley nor any other AI or data-center project was included. The ministry says they will enter its calculations from 2027 - the same year the first facility is due to start operating. [caption id="attachment_54529" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The mine of Bogatyr is expanding to increase production[/caption] From Coal to Algorithms In Ekibastuz, the answer comes down to one word: coal. “In essence, Kazakhstan is turning Ekibastuz coal into export digital revenue,” Kazakhtelecom chairman Bagdat Musin has said. Electricity generated locally would be converted into computing services sold internationally. No major named customer contract has been announced, although Firebird says it holds guaranteed service contracts with global players. Amazon and G42 have been named as companies entering the ecosystem, while Kazakhstan has also held talks with Microsoft and OpenAI. The landscape appears built for that ambition. Nearby lies Bogatyr, one of the world’s largest open-pit coal mines. From the observation deck, terraces of rock descend 300 meters into the earth. Excavators and haul trucks look like toys at the bottom. “Ekibastuz is a very smart choice: energy is abundant and cheap here, while proximity limits transmission losses between the power station and the consumer,” Yevgeny Masternak, CEO of mine operator Bogatyr Komir, told TCA. To keep pace with anticipated demand, the company plans to raise annual production from 42 million tonnes in 2024 to more than 56 million...

Conflict Resolution

Kazakhstan Peace Talks: Basel Al-Haj Jassem on Syria and the South Caucasus

Basel Al-Haj Jassem, a Syrian political adviser and analyst, has worked on the Middle East, the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia for many years, with a particular focus on peace processes. He is the author of the Arabic-language book Kazakhstan and the Syrian Astana, which examines Kazakhstan’s role in the Astana Process on Syria. While Al-Haj Jassem was in Kazakhstan as an observer of the first elections to the country’s new unicameral parliament, the Kurultai, The Times of Central Asia spoke with him about Kazakhstan’s international standing and the country’s possible role as a mediator in the South Caucasus and the Middle East. He described the elections as well organized and “a new stage in the development of Kazakhstan’s political system,” although he added that “in a year it will already be possible to give a more concrete assessment of the Kurultai’s work.” TCA: You have known Kazakhstan for many years and have observed the country from different professional perspectives. In your view, how have Kazakhstan’s role and international standing changed over the past two decades? Al-Haj Jassem: I think the changes that have taken place in Kazakhstan over the past two decades go far beyond economic growth or the expansion of foreign relations. The country has gradually moved from being an important Central Asian state to one whose political and diplomatic presence extends beyond its immediate geographical surroundings. Several factors have contributed to this: its geographical position, balanced relations with Russia, China, the West, and the Islamic world, as well as its ability to avoid becoming rigidly aligned with opposing political blocs. But what I consider most important is that Kazakhstan has built a reputation as a state capable of maintaining dialogue with different parties, including those that are sometimes opposed to one another. TCA: One of your books is devoted to Kazakhstan and the Astana Process on Syria. That experience demonstrated Kazakhstan’s potential as a venue for negotiations. What further role could the country play in the Middle East? Al-Haj Jassem: The experience of the Astana Process on Syria was important because it showed that a state that is not itself a direct party to a conflict can provide space for dialogue that cannot be achieved elsewhere. Kazakhstan, of course, was not a party determining decisions on the Syrian issue, but it created a political and diplomatic environment that helped maintain channels of communication between participants who found it difficult to sit at the same table. I think this experience can be developed further, but it is not necessarily a matter of literally reproducing the Astana Process model. Today, the Middle East needs different forms of mediation, including quiet diplomacy, humanitarian initiatives, and support for dialogue between religious and cultural communities. Kazakhstan’s advantage is that it carries no colonial legacy in the region and is not part of traditional intra-Arab rivalries. At the same time, the country maintains good relations with various Arab and Islamic states. This gives Kazakhstan a certain freedom of action, particularly in situations where a settlement requires, above...