Kazakhstan Featurees - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Security

Central Asia Agrees New Water Limits, but National Quotas Remain Unclear

Water has repeatedly caused friction between Central Asian governments. Uncoordinated releases have flooded communities downstream, while disputes over access have contributed to deadly fighting along contested borders. On October 7, the region's countries agreed on water withdrawals from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya for fall and winter 2026–2027, though published results do not reveal how much water each country will receive. The agreements were reached at the 95th meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) in Avaza, on Turkmenistan's Caspian coast near Turkmenbashi. Participants agreed on national water withdrawal limits and projected reservoir operating schedules, but the figures remain in unpublished annexes to the meeting protocol. Regional cooperation has grown in recent years. In June, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan agreed on water releases and electricity supplies for the 2026 irrigation season, continuing efforts to coordinate reservoir operations across borders. Despite this progress, longstanding tensions remain. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need water in the winter to generate electricity, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan need it in the summer for irrigation. Bishkek has revived proposals for its neighbors to share the costs of maintaining reservoirs, while Afghanistan's Qosh Tepa Canal could put further pressure on the Amu Darya. Countries are also trying to resolve discrepancies in river-flow measurements. [caption id="attachment_58085" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Officials from Central Asian countries attend talks on cross-border cooperation and sustainable development in the Amu Darya basin in Turkmenistan. Image: State News Agency of Turkmenistan[/caption] From Flooded Villages to Border Clashes The competing demands of electricity generation and agriculture are particularly evident in the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan's Toktogul Reservoir sits on the Naryn River, the Syr Darya's main tributary. In winter, Kyrgyzstan releases water to generate electricity, months before downstream farmers need it for irrigation. When these releases exceed the capacity of reservoirs and canals, the excess water can cause flooding. In February 2004, residents of Kazakhstan's Kyzylorda region experienced the consequences of uncoordinated water releases. The Syr Darya overflowed its banks, forcing the evacuation of at least 200 families. Ice had already restricted the river's flow, worsening the flooding. According to NASA, Kyrgyzstan was releasing more water from its hydropower system than the agreements allowed, with the excess flow entering the Shardara Reservoir. Uzbekistan agreed to divert some of the water into the Arnasay lake system, but it was not possible to divert the entire volume needed. As a result, the river flooded areas farther downstream. In the Amu Darya basin, disagreements developed differently. In 2012, then-Uzbek President Islam Karimov warned that disputes over water resources could lead to war. The source of tension was the construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant in Tajikistan. Tashkent feared that a large dam on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amu Darya, would allow Dushanbe to influence the volume of water reaching Uzbekistan's agricultural regions. The confrontation was accompanied by interruptions in gas supplies to Tajikistan, transport restrictions, and mutual accusations. Dushanbe linked Tashkent's actions to pressure over the Rogun project, although the Uzbek side disputed that...

Book Presentation

The Angel of Karaul in Frankfurt: Leyla’s Story as a Call for a World Without Nuclear Testing

The story of a girl from the Kazakh village of Karaul whose life was shaped by Soviet nuclear testing has reached one of the world's largest book events. Roza Mukanova's The Angel of Karaul was presented at the Frankfurt Book Fair, held from October 7 to 11. Originally written in Kazakh as Mäñgilik Bala Beine (The Eternal Child), the work has been reissued in Kazakh and English by publisher Arman-PV. The launch comes in the year marking the 35th anniversary of the closure of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, which was officially shut down on August 29, 1991. Between 1949 and 1989, 456 nuclear tests were conducted there, affecting human health and the environment. For residents of nearby communities, that history did not end when the explosions stopped. This is precisely what Mukanova's work explores. Its protagonist, Leyla, lives in the village of Karaul, near the former test site. The consequences of nuclear testing have shaped her fate: although she is a young woman, she has the appearance of a child. Rejected and misunderstood by those around her, Leyla seeks compassion but often finds comfort only in conversations with the Moon, which she associates with her deceased mother. Through Leyla's story, the writer portrays the tragedy of those whose lives were altered by the Soviet nuclear program. The protagonist's loneliness and her desire to be accepted and loved turn the history of Semipalatinsk into a conversation about human dignity and society's responsibility toward its most vulnerable members. Mukanova attended the presentation at Kazakhstan's national stand, where the new edition was introduced to international publishers and readers. One of Kazakhstan's best-known contemporary writers, Mukanova is an Honored Worker of Kazakhstan and a recipient of the Abai State Prize and the Alash International Literary Prize. Her writing frequently explores complex human relationships, women's lives, and moral conflicts, themes that are central to The Angel of Karaul. Mukanova's story has long been familiar to audiences in Kazakhstan, where it has been adapted for the stage and continues to appear in theater repertoires. Astana's State Puppet Theater is among the venues to have staged the work, using Leyla's relationship with the Moon to explore her isolation and longing for acceptance. The new Arman-PV edition offers a different way to experience the work. Presented in a book-as-performance format, it draws on the story's theatrical history while bringing it to English-speaking readers. Leyla's story is particularly resonant in this anniversary year marking the closure of the test site. The last nuclear test at Semipalatinsk took place in 1989, but the environmental and humanitarian consequences of decades of explosions continue to be studied. In 2009, the United Nations General Assembly designated August 29 as the International Day against Nuclear Tests. For international readers, The Angel of Karaul offers an opportunity to see this history through the eyes of someone whose life was changed by events beyond her control. Thirty-five years after the closure of the test site, Leyla continues to pose a question addressed not only to...

Bilateral Trade

West2West: Kazakhstan Adds a Regional Dimension to Trade with Afghanistan

In late September, a Kazakhstani official and business delegation led by Yerkin Tukumov, the Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan for Afghanistan, visited Herat. The delegation included trade officials, representatives of the Mangystau and West Kazakhstan regions, and businesses. Officials called the new approach West2West, meaning cooperation between Kazakhstan's western regions and western Afghanistan. Kazakhstan and Afghanistan have held several business forums and exhibitions in recent years. However, the choice of Herat and the attempt to shift some cooperation from the intergovernmental to the interregional level make this initiative different. Since 2021, Kazakhstan’s economic dialogue with Afghanistan has developed mainly from the top down. The two governments set ambitious trade targets and sought to turn political engagement into commercial deals. The results looked impressive on paper. In October 2024, the two countries adopted a road map to raise mutual trade to $3 billion. In April 2025, documents worth $140 million were signed in Kabul, followed by 15 documents worth $303 million in Shymkent that October. Actual trade, however, grew much more slowly. In 2024, it totaled $545.2 million, while in 2025 it slipped slightly to $541.6 million. The $3 billion target remains more of a strategic benchmark than a near-term goal. According to official data from Kazakhstan, trade reached $581.1 million in January-July 2026, exceeding the total for the entire previous year. Kazakhstan’s exports accounted for $572.9 million, while imports from Afghanistan were just $8.2 million. Trade is therefore growing rapidly, but remains overwhelmingly one-sided. West2West is partly an attempt to broaden that relationship. Herat's Strategic Location Herat is one of Afghanistan’s main industrial and commercial centers, situated near several important transport routes. To the north is Torghundi, a rail border crossing with Turkmenistan. To the west runs the Khaf-Herat railway, which connects Afghanistan to Iran’s railway system. Herat could eventually become part of longer routes toward Kandahar and Pakistan, although much of the necessary infrastructure remains at the planning stage. During the September visit, officials opened a 43-kilometer section of the Khaf-Herat railway. Afghan sources estimate its cost at approximately $58 million. The section was built with the involvement of Kazakhstani company Integra Construction KZ. In August 2026, freight transported along the Khaf-Herat line totaled approximately 137,700 metric tons. Discussions have also focused on increasing its monthly capacity to 150,000 metric tons. Together with Uzbekistan and the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan has begun working on the Central Asia–South Asia railway project, which envisages a trans-Afghan connection to Pakistan’s ports. So far, the parties have agreed to conduct technical and economic studies, and no final route has been approved. The route through Turkmenistan is developing separately. Ashgabat views Torghundi-Herat as a joint project with Afghanistan linked to the expansion of the Serhetabat-Torghundi crossing and other infrastructure in western Afghanistan. Kazakhstan’s interest in Herat predates West2West. In 2023, Astana announced plans to establish a Kazakhstan Trade House in Afghanistan, with its main office in Herat. It opened in May 2024. Arman Yessentayev, its head, described Herat in 2023 as a...

Book Launch

Farewell to Russia: An Interview with Joe Luc Barnes on Central Asia’s Changing Role

In Moscow, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Joe Luc Barnes met residents who distrusted their government but believed its assurances that war was not coming. The shock that followed opens his book, Farewell to Russia: A Journey Through the Former USSR. Barnes, a journalist, editor and contributor to The Times of Central Asia, has visited all 15 former Soviet republics since February 2022. His book explores how people have built their lives since independence, and how deeply Russia remains woven into them. Speaking to TCA, Barnes recalls meeting rural residents in Central Asia who were more supportive of Russia than their urban, Russian-speaking counterparts. He also reflects on why Russia remains a destination for young people seeking opportunities, despite the discrimination many face there. TCA: At the start of the book, you describe Muscovites’ conviction that Russia would not invade Ukraine. What sustained that certainty, and how did people respond when events shattered it? Joe Luc Barnes: I think it was mainly down to people not wanting to believe it. The amazing thing is that Muscovites (and Russians at large, in my experience) are fully aware that their government is full of crooks whom they wouldn’t trust with anything, but simultaneously most of them are in lockstep with the Kremlin’s foreign policy position. The war started just as Russia was trying to get the country vaccinated against Covid. In the end, the government struggled to persuade even 50% of people to have a single dose of the vaccine, but meanwhile those same people were sure the Kremlin was telling the truth when it said that its soldiers were massing on Ukraine’s borders as part of “routine exercises”. When the war did begin and that illusion collapsed, the main reaction was shock. For the first few days, there was a kind of numbness over the city. Many people had friends or relatives in Ukraine; others were stunned that something they had been denying had actually come to pass. Many in their 20s or 30s were disgusted with their government and began to look for a way out of the country. But people were generally focused on looking after themselves – worrying about things like finances, getting money out of their bank accounts, things like that. I think there was also a belief among many that it would be a short war. When I left Russia in March 2022, I don’t think I, or anyone around me, expected the war to still be raging four and a half years later. [caption id="attachment_58058" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Lenin still stands in Bishkek, though not on his original plinth. Image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] TCA: Your title suggests a departure from Russia. Where in Central Asia did that feel most real, and where did everyday life complicate the idea? Joe Luc Barnes: I think in urban Central Asia, you can often feel like you’re in a Russian city. People speak Russian, you get around using Yandex Taxi, your mobile provider is Beeline, and architecturally you still...

Espionage

German Spy Scandal Puts Central Asian and Caucasus Espionage Cases in Focus

The arrest of former German intelligence chief August Hanning has drawn attention to Azerbaijan. German journalists reported that he allegedly had contacts with Azerbaijan's intelligence service. Baku rejected the allegations, while German prosecutors have not confirmed any Azerbaijani involvement. In recent years, citizens of Central Asia and the South Caucasus have repeatedly been implicated in espionage and treason cases. The accused and suspects include former intelligence chiefs, military personnel, officials, scientists, and foreign nationals. Some have received lengthy prison sentences, while others remain under investigation. In many cases, information about alleged foreign intelligence connections is limited to media reports. German Scandal and Ties to Baku On October 6, 2026, the German authorities detained 80-year-old August Hanning, who headed the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) from 1998 to 2005. Former BND employee Manfred D. was also taken into custody. Hanning is suspected of attempted treason, obtaining state secrets, and acting on behalf of a foreign intelligence service. Manfred D. is suspected of assisting in the alleged offenses. Both were placed in pretrial detention on October 7. According to federal prosecutors, in the spring of 2010, Hanning reached an agreement with his former subordinate to obtain intelligence documents in exchange for money. By June 2022, Manfred D. had allegedly provided him with approximately 2,000 documents, including classified materials. By then, Hanning was working as a private consultant and, investigators believe, used the information for commercial purposes. According to German media reports, the documents included materials on Iran's nuclear program, Russia's armed forces, and information received from partner intelligence agencies. Investigators also allege that Hanning prepared an analytical memorandum for an officer of a foreign intelligence service. It remains unknown whether the intended recipient received it. Der Spiegel reported alleged contacts between Hanning and a representative of Azerbaijani intelligence. The investigative outlet CORRECTIV examined his longstanding ties to Baku, including his participation in the German-Azerbaijani Forum. German prosecutors have not identified the foreign intelligence service involved in the investigation. Azerbaijan rejected reports of its involvement and warned of damage to relations with Berlin. An Azerbaijani official also claimed that German intelligence representatives had assured Baku that the investigation was unrelated to Azerbaijan, although this has not been publicly confirmed by the German authorities. The classified documents were discovered during a separate investigation. In September 2025, police searched Hanning's premises in connection with the alleged abduction of the children of German businesswoman Christina Block from Denmark. The discovery led to a separate criminal investigation opened in May 2026. Hanning's lawyer acknowledged that his client possessed confidential documents, but rejected allegations he had passed on information to Germany's detriment or received payment for doing so. Kazakhstan’s Espionage and State Secrets Cases In Kazakhstan, one of the best-known treason cases of recent times involved the prosecution of China expert Konstantin Syroyezhkin, who worked for many years at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the president. Syroyezhkin was detained in February 2019 and sentenced to ten years in prison in October. The trial was held behind closed...

Migrants in Russia

They Went to Russia for Work and Ended Up at War: How Central Asians Enter the Russian Military

Twenty-year-old Ainabek Keldibek went to Russia expecting to work as a security guard. Relatives of other young Kazakh men say they had taken jobs at a sausage factory and a poultry farm. But according to reports aired in early October on Kazakhstan’s KTK television channel, the men later ended up in or near the combat zone in Ukraine. Some appeared in videos wearing Russian military uniforms and asked Kazakhstan to help bring them home. On October 7, relatives of Kazakh citizens who had reportedly ended up in Russia’s military visited the Foreign Ministry in Astana to seek help bringing them home. Lawyer Meirman Shekeyev, who accompanied the families, said his list had grown from eight to 21 people as more relatives contacted him. The same day, ministry spokesperson Zhanbolat Ussenov said officials were checking appeals and would send Russia a list of citizens after verification. Negotiations over their return were underway, he said. Exactly how the men ended up in the Russian military remains unclear. One family said their relative had already been wounded, while KTK reported that the circumstances surrounding the signing of the military contracts have not been independently established. For now, much of what is known comes from the men themselves and their relatives. Their stories raise a broader question that neither Moscow nor the capitals of Central Asia have fully answered: how many people from the region have ended up in the Russian military, and under what circumstances did they get there? Nearly 13,000, According to a Ukrainian Database Russia does not publish comprehensive statistics on foreign contract soldiers. Central Asian governments have only fragmented data from criminal cases, consular appeals, and reports from relatives. The most detailed country-by-country breakdown comes from the Ukrainian government project I Want to Live. By May 2026, the project said it had identified 12,919 citizens of the five Central Asian states who had signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense: 4,955 citizens of Uzbekistan, 3,489 of Tajikistan, 2,420 of Kazakhstan, 1,474 of Kyrgyzstan, and 581 of Turkmenistan. These figures cannot be regarded as complete or independently verified. I Want to Live operates within Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, and Ukraine is a party to the war. In addition, 12,919 is a cumulative figure, not the number of Central Asians currently at the front. Some may have been killed or captured, completed their service, returned home, or obtained Russian citizenship. Another major estimate comes from the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), Truth Hounds, and the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law. Their report estimates that Russia recruited at least 27,000 foreign nationals from more than 130 countries after February 2022. More than 10,000 of them, according to the study, came from Central Asia. The study is based on open sources, consultations with Ukrainian authorities and experts, and interviews with 16 prisoners of war and former Russian servicemen. There are no comparable publicly available Russian statistics, meaning it is impossible to...