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TCA Interviews

Interview: Kazakhstan Pushes Middle Corridor as Global Trade Routes Shift

As war, sanctions, and disruption reshape trade between Europe and Asia, Kazakhstan is trying to turn the Middle Corridor from an alternative route into a more predictable logistics system. The route, formally known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, links China and Central Asia with the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe, bypassing Russia. For Kazakhstan, the project is both economic and geopolitical. It promises faster access to foreign markets, new transit revenue, and a stronger role for the country as a logistics hub between China and Europe. However, the corridor still faces practical constraints, including port capacity on the Caspian Sea, uneven digital systems, border procedures, tariffs, and coordination between several states and operators. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Alua Korpebayeva, Head of the Project Office for Transport and Logistics under the Presidential Administration of Kazakhstan, about what still needs to change and how Kazakhstan views the corridor’s long-term role. TCA: Why has the Middle Corridor become more urgent for Kazakhstan and Central Asia, and how much have the war in Ukraine and tensions around Iran and the Persian Gulf changed the calculation? Alua Korpebayeva: The government of Kazakhstan has assigned the national railway company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, a strategic objective of increasing total transit volumes to 55 million tons by 2026, representing a 65% increase compared to last year. This target reflects the scale of the country’s ongoing transport transformation. Achieving this goal is closely tied to the development of the Middle Corridor. The route is especially important because it is becoming a foundation for stable and predictable supply chains in global trade. The Middle Corridor provides Central Asian countries with an opportunity to strengthen connectivity with both Europe and China while increasing the region’s role as an independent transport and logistics hub. Geopolitical factors have undoubtedly increased business interest in alternative routes. For Kazakhstan, however, development of the Middle Corridor is primarily part of a broader effort to expand transport capacity and improve logistical resilience. That is precisely why deeper regional cooperation is so important. Unlocking the corridor’s full potential requires close coordination among all participants, from infrastructure modernization and tariff harmonization to end-to-end digitalization and simplified customs procedures. The World Bank has noted that a fully functioning Middle Corridor could strengthen supply-chain resilience and, if accompanied by investment and efficiency measures, could triple freight volumes and cut transportation times in half by 2030. TCA: Are Kazakhstan and its partners moving toward unified transit rules and tariffs along the corridor? What has already been agreed, and where do gaps remain? Alua Korpebayeva: Work on creating unified transit rules and coordinated tariff policies is ongoing. The current focus is shifting from fragmented national tariffs toward a unified through-route pricing system across the corridor. Within the framework of the Action Plan for Eliminating Bottlenecks along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, signed by the railway administrations of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia, the parties agreed to establish a single long-term tariff for the route. In practical terms,...

AI in Education

AI in Kazakh Universities: Institutions Are Not Ready for the ChatGPT Era

AI in Kazakh universities is rapidly transforming higher education, but many institutions appear unprepared for how quickly such tools are becoming normalized in the academic process. While authorities increasingly urge educators to treat AI as a professional tool for the future workforce, universities continue spending tens of thousands of dollars on systems designed to detect texts generated by ChatGPT and similar AI models. By the spring of 2026, the use of generative AI in Kazakh universities had effectively become a new academic norm. Students now routinely use AI systems to write coursework, dissertations, and analytical papers. However, instead of fundamentally reconsidering how knowledge and competencies are assessed, universities are attempting to fit new technologies into an outdated, control-based educational model. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education has officially rejected the idea of banning generative AI outright. The ministry states that AI usage is acceptable as long as students adhere to principles of academic integrity and transparency. “Conceptually, the Ministry does not advocate for a complete ban on generative neural networks,” the Committee for Higher and Postgraduate Education said in its official position. This approach was formalized through the “Inter-University Standard for the Use of AI,” adopted in 2024. In 2025, authorities further reaffirmed their commitment to integrating AI into the education system, emphasizing that AI tools should be viewed primarily as instruments rather than threats. Universities Spend Tens of Thousands of Dollars on AI Detectors Despite the ministry’s position, universities across Kazakhstan have begun purchasing AI-detection systems. In the spring of 2025, the company Antiplagiat.Kazakhstan introduced an algorithm designed to detect AI-generated text, which state and national universities have subsequently begun to acquire on a large scale. According to Kazakhstan’s public procurement portal, Kazakh National Medical University signed a contract worth approximately $27,000, while Toraighyrov University conducted several procurements totaling around $19,000. Most contracts were awarded through single-source procurement procedures, strengthening the market position of one dominant supplier in the field of academic verification systems. At the same time, AI detectors do not produce definitive results and instead operate on probabilistic models. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Education has separately stated that such tools cannot serve as indisputable proof of academic misconduct. “The development of artificial intelligence requires not a mechanical prohibition of AI, but an improvement of assessment systems,” the ministry noted. [caption id="attachment_49352" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] A talk on AI at Al-Farabi University. Image: Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] University Regulations Lag Behind Technological Reality The problem is compounded by outdated university regulations. Many rules and academic policies were written before the mass adoption of generative AI. Documents from Yessenov University and Narxoz University, for example, contain no references to terms such as “AI,” “neural networks,” or “text generation.” Even recently updated regulations often preserve the old logic of evaluation through text originality percentages. In the “Academic Policy of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University for 2025-2026”, AI usage is now formally regulated, yet the university simultaneously retains a requirement that diploma theses maintain a minimum originality level of 75%. This creates a legal contradiction:...

GDP

Why Kazakhstan Is Moving Ahead in GDP Per Capita

The International Monetary Fund has projected Kazakhstan to reach roughly $23,170 in nominal GDP per capita by 2031. On the same current-dollar measure, it is projected to pass China around 2026 and Russia by 2031. The comparison is a milestone, but it requires perspective. It is neither a purchasing-power verdict nor a comprehensive measure of household welfare. It nevertheless marks Kazakhstan’s entry into a higher income band. The question is how a state that began independence amid post-Soviet economic disruption reached this stage. How Kazakhstan Reached This Point Kazakhstan’s present position rests on a three-decade progression of state capacity, resource development, and institutional learning. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the country did not inherit a working growth model. It inherited broken production chains, institutional rupture, and inflation. It therefore faced the task of building a market economy out of an administrative-command system. In current U.S. dollars, GDP per capita stood near $1,400 in 1991, and exceeded $14,000 by 2024; in constant-dollar terms, the gain was smaller but still substantial. Hydrocarbons supplied the base, but political institutions and leadership acumen determined how much of that base could survive volatility. The path since 1991 has not been smooth. The 1990s brought collapse and stabilization. The 2000s brought hydrocarbon acceleration, foreign direct investment, and a rise in nominal GDP per capita climbing from a little more than $1,000 in 2000 to more than $8,000 in 2008. The global financial crisis interrupted the rise without destroying the model. The early 2010s brought recovery. The 2014–2016 oil-price and exchange-rate shock then tested the foundations already built, as the current-dollar figure fell sharply while real output per person proved more stable. COVID imposed another interruption. The post-2020 rebound belongs to that sequence. The Tokayev agenda belongs to this third stage of institutional learning. It did not create the GDP per capita trajectory over three decades, but today the issue has shifted from accumulation to stewardship. The inherited growth model had to be made more competitive, more rules-based, more socially visible, and more sustainable. Since 2022, the government has treated de-monopolization, asset recovery, social investment, and private-sector development as connected elements of the same governing effort. The IMF’s latest assessment shows the pressure inside that effort: growth remains strong, supported by oil output and non-oil activity, while fiscal, inflationary, and quasi-state-sector pressures still require correction. The Reform Program and Its Results Decree No. 542, signed in May 2024, set out measures to liberalize the economy, limit expansion of the quasi-state sector, revise privatization criteria, strengthen competition, and improve conditions for entrepreneurship. Its operative terms are competition, privatization, reduced state participation, and lower business costs. The decree temporarily halts the creation of new quasi-state entities and provides for an audit of state and quasi-state assets, partly to identify candidates for privatization. It also incorporates reforms affecting procurement and business regulation. The decree seeks to bend Kazakhstan’s accumulated macroeconomic trajectory toward commercial governance. The challenge is not to remove state capacity but to prevent it from crowding out private...

Myths

Kazakhstan’s Haunted Steppe: Myths, Cold War Ruins, and Unexplained Phenomena

Kazakhstan’s vast steppes, deserts, mountains, and abandoned Soviet sites have produced a mythology of their own. Some stories are folklore. Others grew from real geography, ecological disaster, nuclear testing, secretive institutions, and the long shadow of the Cold War. That mix helps explain why tales of lost islands, strange stones, atomic ghosts, and unidentified flying objects still circulate across the country. The most interesting stories are not necessarily the ones that prove anything paranormal. They are the ones that show how history and landscape can turn into legend. You Will Go But Never Return One of Kazakhstan’s best-known mysterious places is Barsakelmes, whose name is usually translated from Kazakh as “You Will Go But Never Return.” The former island, once located in the Aral Sea, was less than 20 kilometers long, but it acquired an outsized reputation during the Soviet period. [caption id="attachment_49303" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Barsakelmes[/caption] Today, Barsakelmes is no longer technically an island. The Aral Sea has largely dried up after one of the world’s major ecological disasters, and the surrounding landscape has changed almost beyond recognition. The island’s name did much of the work. So did Soviet-era popular culture. Russian science-fiction writer Sergei Lukyanenko, who was born in Kazakhstan, helped deepen its mystique through a story published in the Soviet magazine Tekhnika Molodezhi. In that fictional version, Barsakelmes became a deadly place linked to secret laboratories, biological experiments, and mutant soldiers. The confirmed history is less lurid, but still striking. Local accounts and researchers have linked the name to earlier tragedies, including stories of herders who died while trying to cross the frozen Aral Sea. Over time, those disappearances became part of the island’s reputation as a place from which people did not return. The mystery deepened in the 2000s, when archaeologists found burial grounds and remains of ancient settlements on the dried seabed near Barsakelmes. The finds, dated to the 11th-14th centuries, included religious structures and evidence of trade links that may have extended toward China. Some homes reportedly contained jars still filled with grain, suggesting that residents left suddenly. Whether they fled a flood, conflict, or another disaster is less certain. But it is easy to see how the physical evidence of abrupt abandonment fed older stories about a cursed landscape. Even the island’s natural features became part of the legend. Fishermen once avoided the area after seeing what they thought were huge bones along the shore. They were, in fact, large gypsum formations glinting in the sun. Today, Barsakelmes is also a protected area and a refuge for rare wildlife, showing how a place associated with loss can also become a site of recovery. The Stone Spheres of Mangystau Another of Kazakhstan’s strange landscapes lies on the Mangystau Peninsula in the west of the country, about 150 kilometers from Aktau. There, in a valley that resembles a Martian plain, hundreds of large stone spheres are scattered across the ground. Some are several meters in diameter. Visitors have compared them to giant balls, prehistoric eggs, or...

Opinion: How AI Is Reshaping the Global Image of Nations

Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming one of the most powerful geopolitical and economic forces in the world. It is changing how countries compete, build influence, and attract investment. Until recently, discussions about Central Asia’s economic development were dominated by infrastructure, energy, logistics, and natural resources. Today, a new layer of competition is emerging: digital influence shaped by AI systems. According to McKinsey, AI could contribute up to $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030. For Central Asia and Kazakhstan, AI development is no longer just a digital transformation agenda; it is directly tied to technological sovereignty, economic resilience, and long-term competitiveness. Who Shapes a Country’s Image in the Age of AI? Digital influence is increasingly determined by how artificial intelligence systems interpret and represent countries. Consider a Singaporean investor asking Gemini about emerging technology markets in Central Asia. A European procurement manager using ChatGPT to identify logistics partners in the region. A journalist turning to Perplexity for insights on Kazakhstan’s fintech ecosystem before writing a report. In each case, AI generates answers based on the data it has been trained on and can access. This creates a new geopolitical reality: those who shape data and content structure ultimately shape how countries are represented globally. Generative AI is already used at a massive scale, with ChatGPT surpassing 900 million weekly active users as of early 2026. As these systems become default information interfaces, the visibility of countries within AI-generated responses is becoming increasingly important. When high-quality, structured, and authoritative content is missing, AI systems rely on outdated information, fragmented sources, and external narratives. In practice, this means that a lack of structured digital presence can directly influence international perception. How Other Countries Are Responding Several countries have already recognized this shift and are actively responding. According to Axios, Israel paid Brad Parscale’s firm $9 million as part of a campaign aimed at shaping how AI platforms portray the country. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are investing heavily in AI infrastructure and Arabic-language models, including Gulf-backed data centers, sovereign AI initiatives, and Arabic-first large language models. These efforts go beyond technology development. They represent a broader competition for influence in an information environment where AI-generated responses increasingly shape global understanding. AI Momentum in Kazakhstan In 2025, Kazakhstan was listed among the region’s strongest performers in the Government AI Readiness Index published by Oxford Insights. Kazakh officials cited a ranking of 60th out of 195 countries, while Oxford Insights published a regional report that placed Kazakhstan 58th globally. In either case, it was the highest-ranked of the five Central Asian states and represented a sharp improvement from the previous year. Over the past two years, Kazakhstan has demonstrated rapid progress in artificial intelligence. Venture investment in AI has increased more than fivefold, from $14 million to $73 million. IT service exports surpassed $1 billion in 2025, with later ministry figures putting the total at about $1.14 billion. The Kazakh-linked AI startup Higgsfield AI has also been widely described as Kazakhstan’s...

Foreign Trade

Kazakhstan’s Exports Rise Nearly 10% in First Quarter of 2026

Kazakhstan increased its foreign trade turnover to $32.9 billion during the first quarter of 2026, while exports rose by nearly 10% year-on-year, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade and Integration. The ministry stated that Kazakhstan completed the January-March period with a “confident strengthening” of its foreign trade position. Amid continued strong business activity and expanding export potential, total trade turnover reached $32.9 billion, an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period in 2025, when the figure stood at $29.8 billion. “The dynamics confirm the resilience of the country’s foreign economic sector and the gradual strengthening of higher value-added products in the structure of Kazakhstan’s exports,” the ministry said. Total exports for the first quarter of 2026 rose by 9.4% to $18 billion, while imports increased by 11.8% to $14.9 billion compared to the same period last year. According to the ministry, the faster growth in imports was primarily driven by increased purchases of investment and technological goods needed for the modernization of Kazakhstan’s industrial, energy and transport infrastructure. Among the most notable increases was the import of electric generating units, which rose to $416.8 million, more than five times the previous level. Imports of gas turbines and aircraft engines, railway locomotives, and equipment for processing and sorting raw materials also increased significantly. “This structure of imports indicates sustained high investment demand within the economy and the active implementation of infrastructure and industrial projects,” the ministry said. Officials also highlighted the performance of Kazakhstan’s non-commodity trade sector. Foreign trade turnover in non-resource goods reached $20.4 billion during the first quarter of 2026, up 13.5% year-on-year. Non-commodity exports rose by 23.4% to $6.9 billion, becoming one of the main drivers of changes in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade structure. The main non-resource exports included copper and copper cathodes, silver, uranium, ferroalloys, animal feed products, and sunflower oil. Exports of sunflower oil increased by nearly 60% to $277.8 million, reflecting what the ministry described as the growing competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s processed agricultural products. Ferroalloy exports rose by 20.1%, pointing to continued growth in the metallurgical sector and wider export markets for domestically manufactured industrial goods. “Kazakhstan’s foreign trade geography remains steadily diversified,” the ministry stated. “China became the country’s largest trading partner in the first quarter, with trade turnover reaching $7.8 billion and accounting for 23.8% of total foreign trade.” Russia retained second place with bilateral trade totaling $6.5 billion, remaining Kazakhstan’s key market for imports and industrial cooperation. Italy, Turkey, and Uzbekistan also ranked among Kazakhstan’s largest trading partners. The ministry also noted Kazakhstan’s export position in Europe. Trade turnover with Italy exceeded $3.4 billion during the first quarter, with Kazakh exports accounting for more than $3 billion of that total. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan aims to increase non-commodity exports to $52 billion by 2030.