Central Asia’s water diplomacy is entering a contentious phase. Kyrgyzstan, where much of the region’s runoff is formed, is reviving calls for economic compensation from downstream users. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have rejected the idea, saying current agreements do not provide for payments for transboundary river water. The dispute comes as the region tries to maintain annual water-allocation deals while adapting agriculture to worsening scarcity and climate pressure.
Water has long tied together the region’s upstream and downstream states. The 2021 and 2022 clashes on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border showed how disputes over land, border infrastructure, roads, security posts, and water access can escalate when local tensions are not contained. Yet political will alone does not guarantee agreements between countries.
The Central Asian republics cooperate on water issues through two interstate bodies. One is the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, established in 1993 by all five Central Asian republics. Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in IFAS in 2016, and now attends the fund’s meetings as an observer.
The second body is the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, whose meetings are held once a quarter. At its 93rd meeting in Bukhara in early April, the commission confirmed limits for water withdrawal from transboundary rivers, following decisions approved at the 92nd meeting in Dushanbe.
For the Amu Darya, the 2026 water allocations set the total withdrawal limit for the water-management year from October 2025 to October 2026 at about 55.4 billion cubic meters. Of this, 15.9 billion cubic meters is allocated for the cold period, from October to April. Tajikistan has been allocated 9.8 billion cubic meters per year, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan each receive 22 billion. A significant part of the flow, 44 billion cubic meters, must pass through the adjusted section of the Kerki hydrological post, helping secure the lower reaches of the river.
For the Syr Darya, the total water withdrawal limit for the non-growing season is 4.219 billion cubic meters. Kazakhstan will receive 460 million cubic meters through the Dustlik Canal, Kyrgyzstan 47 million, and Tajikistan 365 million, while the largest share will go to Uzbekistan, 3.347 billion cubic meters.
The inherited framework is also facing pressure from outside the five-state system. Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal, which is being advanced outside the Soviet-era allocation structure, has added uncertainty on the Amu Darya.
The Central Asian republics also cooperate in bilateral and trilateral formats. In January, Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan joint working groups met in Turkestan. The sides reaffirmed water cooperation, agreed to continue repairs on the Dostyk canal, and planned automated hydrological posts on the Syr Darya.
In May, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan agreed on the operating regime of the Bahri-Tojik Reservoir for the summer of 2026. From June to August, the reservoir is to operate in a coordinated mode to supply irrigation water to farmers in the Maktaaral and Zhetysai districts of southern Kazakhstan.
These agreements show that regional mechanisms still work, but experts continue to warn that climate pressure, data gaps, and uneven national interests could overwhelm existing formats.
“Forecasting the likelihood of ‘water conflicts’ in the near future is difficult, since much depends not only on the political will of states, but also on the availability of effective tools for managing water resources amid scientific uncertainty and discrepancies in data assessment,” according to Shamshagul Mashtayeva, a Kazakh hydrologist and water-diplomacy specialist. “The time has come for a paradigm shift in the management of these resources and in water diplomacy in order to give the second scenario a greater chance, since the well-being of future generations directly depends on the success of these efforts.”
In her view, the combined impact of irregular weather patterns, glacier melt, and biodiversity loss creates uncertainty. That uncertainty could lead to two scenarios: growing economic, social, environmental, and political shocks and conflicts over water, or improved policy with large-scale reforms in the water sector.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have responded partly by introducing digital and water-saving technologies, and by changing crop structures.
In Kazakhstan, priority in this year’s sowing campaign was given to higher-margin and strategically important crops. Oilseed crops will exceed 4 million hectares, while more than 3.3 million hectares have been allocated for fodder crops. Wheat acreage has been reduced to 12.1 million hectares, 125,000 hectares less than last year. Corn acreage was also reduced. Rice fields were reduced by 20,600 hectares, and the area of cotton under drip irrigation increased by 29,800 hectares as water-saving technologies were expanded.
Kazakhstan has taken a stricter approach to reducing rice planting. In the Shardara district of the Turkestan Region, dozens of farmers who planted rice fields beyond approved volumes were left without irrigation water. Permits were processed through an electronic system, and once the limit was reached, registration of new areas was closed.
Uzbekistan has also started to shift land away from water-intensive crops. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev supported a proposal in late April to reduce cotton and grain areas by 7,400 hectares in the Ferghana Region and redistribute land to more profitable crops. Orchards and export-oriented plantations are being created in the Ferghana, Yozyovon, Kuva, and Uzbekistan districts.
Uzbekistan’s cotton sector has prepared for intensive planting schemes on 888,000 hectares. Of these, 500,000 hectares are planned for high-yielding, salt-resistant, and drought-resistant foreign varieties. Work is also being organized to plant cotton on 300,000 hectares based on Xinjiang’s experience.
Kyrgyzstan, where about half of the region’s runoff is formed and which uses roughly a quarter of that water itself, has repeatedly raised the issue of economic compensation for irrigation water. On January 1, 2026, a new Water Code came into force in the republic, changing the approach to the use of water resources. Water is now recognized as a commodity, and fees will be charged for its use by domestic and external consumers.
This marks a shift away from the old “water in exchange for electricity” system toward a market model of water use. The new code regulates domestic water use and its distribution among neighbors such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
In February, Jogorku Kenesh (parliamentary) deputy Umbetaly Kydyraliyev also raised the issue, saying Kyrgyzstan bears the cost of maintaining hydraulic facilities, including repairs and maintenance of dams, but receives no direct economic compensation. He cited international practice in which countries pay compensation for the use of water resources.
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov raised the issue again at a regional economic summit in Astana in April. He said emergencies in Kyrgyzstan have increased significantly in recent years: mudflows and floods have become three times more frequent, while annual damage reaches about $16 million. The glacier area has also shrunk by 16%, and by the end of the century, the country could lose up to 80% of its glaciers.
“We propose resuming the introduction of a mutually beneficial economic compensation mechanism in the water and energy sector under modern conditions. It is necessary to find a balance of interests and develop mutually acceptable solutions based on a comprehensive approach,” Japarov said.
Professor Yarash Pulodov, a Tajik scholar in water resources and ecology, has supported the introduction of water-use fees in Kyrgyzstan. He said the transition to market mechanisms, under which water would be treated as a commodity, is a logical step. In his view, charging for water is aimed at modernizing water-resource management, increasing transparency, and ensuring efficient distribution in water-scarce regions.
“Although water is a gift from heaven and its use can be regarded as the legitimate right of everyone, in a developed society the infrastructure for delivering this water requires significant costs. Ultimately, all water users and consumers must pay for delivery,” he said.
Downstream governments do not accept that premise. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan say no agreement has ever existed, and none exists now, to pay for river water.
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation said: “The introduction of payment for transboundary water is not provided for by the current contractual and legal framework and is not under consideration. The main emphasis is on improving the efficiency of water use within the country, building and modernizing reservoirs, reducing losses, and introducing water-saving technologies. The system remains based on recognized principles of water sharing, equality of parties, and long-term regional cooperation.”
That leaves Central Asian water diplomacy with less room for ambiguity. Annual allocation agreements still function, and governments are investing in more efficient usage. Yet Kyrgyzstan’s warning has put a price tag on a resource downstream states have long treated as shared under existing agreements. Tajikistan, another upstream state, may face similar incentives as glacier loss and infrastructure costs rise. Whether the region can manage that debate without turning water into a new interstate dispute will depend on stronger data, clearer rules, and trust between upstream and downstream states.
