Tajikistan Opinions - The Times Of Central Asia

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How India is Becoming a Robust Soft Power in Central Asia

The middle-income trap, a pressing issue that has led to the stagnation of many successful developing economies, demands immediate attention. This trap, which occurs when a middle-income country can no longer compete internationally in standardized, labor-intensive goods due to relatively high wages, is a result of various factors, including countries most successful demographic characteristics. For instance, access to education has reduced birth rates due to an almost 100% literacy rate defined by 12 years of education. In the process, importing cheap manufacturing products has made local products uncompetitive. In such a situation, the country should have planned to upgrade current skill-based education to high-tech skills such as ICT, pharmaceuticals, etc. This shift to high-tech education holds immense potential for developing countries, offering a pathway out of the middle-income trap. Unfortunately, poor investment in developing high-tech education has led to an inadequate supply of a high-skilled workforce. Developed economies, such as the U.S. and a few European countries, are in an advantageous position to overcome such a trap due to their highly effective immigration policy. Developing countries, such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, the Philippines, and almost all Central Asian Republics, meanwhile, suffer. This will be further aggravated if the issue is not addressed urgently. Due to its geographic location and natural resource endowments, Central Asia, a diverse region with a mix of upper-middle and low-income countries, holds significant importance in the global economic landscape. Let's look at a specific case, such as Uzbekistan, a country whose population is growing at 1.3% per annum. Regarding age structure, the 0-14 age group makes up 30.1% of the population, the 15-64 age group 64.6%, and the 65-plus group constitutes just 5.3%. The country has achieved a high literacy rate, with 100% of the population completing 12 years of primary and higher secondary education. However, the country’s GDP per capita is relatively low, at US$ 3,209 (nominal term) and US$ 11,316 (PPP). The country's economy is dominated by the services sector, which contributes 48.4% to the GDP, followed by industry at 33.7%, and agriculture at 17.9%. The poverty line is set at less than US$ 3.2 per day, affecting 10% of the population. The country's labor force is distributed across sectors, with 25.9% in agriculture, 13.2% in industry, and 60.9% in services. The unemployment rate is 5.3%, and underemployment is a significant issue, affecting 20% of the population. The low supply of highly skilled workers challenges further increasing per capita income. The country will likely fall into this middle-income trap because it reaches a certain average income and cannot progress beyond that level. It seems helpful to mention some insights from this perspective. During Soviet times, the growth model of states was determined by their available resources, and Central Asia is rich in abundant resources. However, in most cases, primary resources were taken to other non-resource wealthy states for further value addition. So, the workforce was created in the respective states based on the concerned state's requirements. Workforce migration from one state to another was...

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Islamic Extremism in Central Asia: A Threat to Liberal Progress

Afghanistan earned its reputation as the “graveyard of empires” due to the significant toll exacted on foreign powers in their efforts to achieve military success in the country. This challenge was evident in the experiences of the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and, most recently, the United States. The persistent and decentralized nature of the country's tribal insurgency made achieving a definitive victory a formidable task. Furthermore, the adherence of groups harbored by the Taliban, such as Al Qaeda, to an extremist religious ideology spread terrorism globally, including in the 9/11 attacks as well as other deadly acts of violence in various parts of the world. While the United States arguably played a constructive role in modernizing Afghanistan, the establishment of democracy and Western values in the country proved to be an insurmountable challenge, even with over $100 billion in foreign aid. With heightened tensions between the Islamic and Western populations reignited in the Levant after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, the threat of Afghanistan-based extremists redirecting their focus towards the West has intensified. Often overlooked is the fact that Salafists jihadists and other radical groups also pose a challenge to the emerging democracies in Central Asia as these Muslim-majority secular republics are seen as areas to spread their undemocratic and potentially violent influence. In this context, policies that may even inadvertently help promote illiberal religious movements threaten the region’s secular identity and the security of its peoples. We should assess Central Asia’s unique position on religious freedoms but also on jihadist threats For the large part, Western countries come from a privileged position of being able to resist the widespread influence from Islamic extremist movements at home thanks mainly to generations of democratic institution building as well as decent geographic distance to areas that would fall under pan-jihadist aspirations. Consider that there is no apparent threat of jihadists entirely displacing Western democratic institutions or imposing a pan-Islamist state encompassing parts of Western nations; most Western lands do not fall on areas some of these groups want to conquer to create an Islamic Caliphate. On the other hand, many other places, including Central Asia, still risk misconstruing the line between defending individual freedoms and combatting religious extremism. Here, the coexistence of extremist Islamic ideologies and democracy remains somewhat precarious. Islamic radicalism continues to pose a serious challenge to the emerging democracies of the region, where the secular republics are trying to keep a lid on certain hostile ideologies. Militant groups spilling over from Afghanistan and infiltrating post-Soviet countries want to spread jihad to the region and create an Islamic Khaganate stretching from Egypt to China. Pan-Islamist Salafists, such as Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Al Qaeda, have a clear goal to overthrow Central Asia’s secular regimes. Moreover, the determination of Salafists jihadists and other groups to spread their illiberal and violent struggle to Central Asia (including from neighboring Afghanistan) has become apparent through their growing presence in the region’s schools and other spheres of public...

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The Impact of the Narcotics Trade in Tajikistan

Tajikistan, a Central Asian country, finds itself at the center of a significant narcotics trade route. This landlocked nation borders Afghanistan, a country that as of 2020, accounted for over 80% of global opium production (source). This geographical positioning has led to a profound influence on Tajikistan's social, economic, and political landscape. The narcotics trade has a significant economic impact in Tajikistan, given its strategic location bordering Afghanistan. This illicit trade has both direct and indirect influences on the country's economy. According to Matthew Kahane, the UNDP head in Tajikistan, it has been estimated that the drug trade accounts for 30% to 50% of the country's economy. Furthermore, drug trafficking through Tajikistan was estimated to generate $2.7 billion per year in 2011, potentially surpassing any legitimate source of wealth in the country. However, this income does not contribute to the country's overall economic development. Instead, it fosters corruption, undermines legal economic activities, and concentrates wealth in the hands of drug traffickers and corrupt officials. In addition, the narcotics trade increases the level of crime, corruption and the rich-poor divide. Moreover, Tajikistan's law enforcement agencies receive substantial financial and technical resources from foreign donors to aid them in the fight against drugs. However, the effectiveness of these efforts is questionable given the scale of the narcotics trade. The narcotics trade in Tajikistan has extensive social impacts, affecting various facets of the society ranging from public health to crime rates. One of the most immediate social impacts is the rise in substance abuse, particularly among the youth. In the last ten years, there has been an increase in drug use behavior among the youth in Tajikistan, leading to serious health consequences. Heroin use, in particular, is a significant concern. It not only harms the users but also places a strain on the country's healthcare system, which is ill-equipped to handle the rising number of addicts. The narcotics trade has a significant political impact in Tajikistan. The illicit drug trade has reportedly corrupted parts of Tajikistan's government. The lucrative profits from narcotics have incentivized officials at all levels to tolerate or even engage in drug trafficking. This corruption undermines the legitimacy of public institutions and erodes citizens' trust in their government. The narcotics trade poses a serious security threat. Non-state armed groups often use drug trafficking as a source of funding, which can destabilize the region and exacerbate conflict. In addition, the high levels of crime associated with the drug trade can lead to increased violence and social unrest. The Taliban, a dominant insurgent group in Afghanistan, is implicated in escalating narcotics trafficking in Tajikistan, a situation exacerbated by Afghanistan's instability and corroborated by reports from the UNODC and Eurasianet. Recognizing these challenges, international organizations and governments have developed programs to combat the narcotics trade in Tajikistan. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has implemented several projects aimed at strengthening border control, improving the criminal justice response to drug trafficking, and promoting regional cooperation. Furthermore, the European Union and the...

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The Geopolitical Fallout of Taliban’s Takeover: Neighboring Countries and Their Responses

The swift takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban following the withdrawal of foreign forces (notably the United States) has created a complex geopolitical situation for neighboring countries. These nations had contemplated the prospect of a Taliban resurgence, but the sudden shift in power dynamics forced them to publicly acknowledge their stance towards a Taliban-led Afghanistan. The General Response In general, the consensus among these nations has been an acceptance of the new reality, with many expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue with Afghanistan's new leadership. While the two regional heavyweights, Moscow and Beijing, have both indicated their readiness to negotiate with the Taliban, they harbor concerns about militants from their own countries that are currently in Afghanistan and allied with the Taliban. The safety of foreign citizens still residing in Afghanistan further complicates the situation. Pakistan, a long-standing supporter of the Taliban, openly welcomed the group's recent success. Meanwhile, China, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan choose to concede their lack of influence over Afghan internal politics, instead expressing hope for potential cooperation with the Taliban. Tajikistan's Unique Stance Tajikistan, under the leadership of President Emomali Rahmon, presents a different narrative. Rahmon has been vocal in his opposition to the Taliban government in Afghanistan. This stance is partly due to his history as Tajikistan's leader during the previous Taliban control of Afghanistan and his support for ethnic Tajiks there who have been battling the Taliban. Tajiks constitute approximately 25% of the Afghan population, and their connection to Tajiks in Tajikistan is strong. None of the other neighboring states have this sort of relationship. Rahmon's concern for the Afghan Tajiks has earned him rare public support at home, which could be crucial as he prepares his son, Rustam, to succeed him as president. There appears to be a growing concern among Tajikistan's citizens about the potential illiberal influence of the Taliban. Following the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, Tajikistan received thousands of refugees, with many more gathering at the border. This influx could indicate a fear of Taliban's rule among the population. There are also reports of Taliban attacks on Tajik communities. The Taliban enforces justice through its strict interpretation of Sharia law, including the implementation of criminal punishments such as public executions. Judges within the Taliban enforce the hierarchy and maintain centralized authority. This system has been criticized by human rights organizations for lacking justice, truth and reparation for crimes under international law as well as for human rights violations. Challenges Ahead Rahmon faces significant challenges in engaging with the Taliban due to the country's history with the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT). The IRPT, an Islamic political party far more moderate than the Taliban, was a major opposition group during Tajikistan's 1992-1997 civil war. It later became the second-largest party in Tajikistan, posing a threat to Rahmon's power. In 2015, the Tajik government banned the IRPT, labeling it an extremist group based on claims of a coup attempt. Given this history, it's hard for the Tajik government to establish ties with...

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The Threat of Taliban to Democracy in Tajikistan: An Intensifying Crisis

Tajikistan is in an increasingly precarious position due to the resurgent Taliban regime in neighboring Afghanistan. Unlike its regional counterparts, Tajikistan stands firm in its refusal to engage with the Taliban, highlighting its unique stance in the geopolitical landscape. The Taliban's swift takeover of Afghanistan has raised alarm bells in Tajikistan, with the government intensifying its criticism of the extremist group. The increasing complexity of threats posed by the Taliban and cross-border attacks by Islamic State affiliates have left leaders grappling for security solutions. There has been an uneasy truce along the Afghanistan's border with its Central Asian neighbors in the months after the Taliban seized control. However, the emergence of a new Taliban-affiliated group, Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan, signals a heightened threat to Tajikistan's national security. This precarious situation is further complicated by the fact that Tajikistan's land border with Afghanistan has been closed since the Taliban takeover in 2021. This has restricted travel and trade between the two nations, adding economic pressure to the already tense standoff. In addition to the immediate threat that the Taliban poses, there are also fears about extremist groups using Afghanistan as a base for conducting terrorist activities. This has sparked terror fears in Central Asia, including in Tajikistan. While the international community has adopted a wait-and-see approach towards the Taliban, Tajikistan has taken a sharply and openly critical stance. This could potentially isolate the nation further and put its democratic principles under strain. It is clear that the threat Taliban poses to Tajikistan's democracy continues to be multi-faceted and is escalating. Ever since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in 2021, Tajikistan has been under an increased threat of terrorist attacks. The question remains whether these incursions into Tajikistan were real or staged, but there exists a real threat to the nation's security and democracy. The country's refusal to engage with the Taliban, coupled with the emergence of new extremist groups and the potential for Afghanistan to become a hub for terrorism, continue to pose a significant challenge to Tajikistan's democratic values and national security.

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Central Asia’s Growing Economic and Strategic Importance Comes to Fore

The Central Asian region has experienced a tremendous economic transformation since the beginning of the century. Its aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) now totals $397 billion, growing 8.6-fold since the year 2000. Its share in global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) has also increased 1.8 times. The GDP per capita has tripled as the labor pool has grown to almost 80 million, representing a 1.4-fold increase since 2000. The region’s strategic importance, particularly thanks to its geographic position bridging major economies of Europe and Asia, makes it a key player in geopolitical dynamics. Central Asia’s dependence on commodity exports and remittances has so far limited its integration into global value-chains. The Central Asia Regional Economic Co-operation (CAREC) Program, established by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), plays an important role in fostering regional development and co-operation. CAREC includes the five Central Asia countries (namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) plus Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Mongolia and Pakistan. CAREC also partners with five multilateral international institutions in addition to the ADB (which serves as its Secretariat). These are the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank (a.k.a. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development or IBRD). The Program has constructively helped the countries of Central Asia to address challenges in trade governance. Nevertheless, inefficiencies in cross-border transport and customs procedures continue to hinder their commercial exchanges with one another as well as with external partners. CAREC’s current policy-implementation priorities are integration of regional trade, digitization, climate change, regional co-operation, development of financial technologies and financing in the water sector. There is still significant potential for further development given that the region’s trade within itself has been growing faster than its foreign trade. Enhancing Central Asia’s role in the global economy will require the implementation of co-operative initiatives already identified, especially in infrastructure. Such construction of new physical plants, as well as the renovation and building-out of those that already exist, is crucial for enhancing economic growth and sustainability. This strategy will leverage the region’s strengths such as its strategic location and resource endowments. In 2023, Central Asia’s economic growth is projected to remain relatively steady at 3.9 percent, but this may still be affected by the global challenges of weak external demand, rising inflation and supply-chain disruptions. These global economic conditions, along with the uncertainties that they engender, reflect continuing burdens of the ongoing post-COVID recovery as well as the effects of the war in Ukraine, which significantly impacts the region. In addition to the ADB, the IBRD also focuses on various development initiatives in Central Asia that aim to support regional infrastructure development and the strengthening of cross-border co-operation. These are implemented through relatively low-profile initiatives such as the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) to enhance energy and water security and the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) to improve weather, climate and hydrological services. The IBRD thus aims to increase...