Uzbekistan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Opinion

Can Uzbekistan’s Green Transition Offset Its Gas Decline?

Uzbekistan faces a widening energy gap. Natural gas production peaked in 2008 and, after a partial recovery in the late 2010s, has fallen sharply. Official figures show output dropped from 61.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2018 to 41.5 bcm in 2024. Production fell another 15% year on year in the first quarter of 2026. The gap is already being filled from abroad. Russian gas deliveries rose 15% in 2025 to nearly 6.5 bcm, while Uzbekistan also imports gas from Turkmenistan. Renewable electricity cannot replace every household or industrial use of gas. It can reduce the volume burned in power stations, leaving more domestic fuel available elsewhere. Declining output is already changing Uzbekistan’s external position. The country, once a net gas exporter, became a net importer in 2023. Imports help protect households and factories from shortages, but they add costs and increase exposure to Russian and Turkmen supplies. Renewable generation therefore serves an energy security purpose even before its climate benefits are counted. Natural gas remains the central concern. In its 2022 review, the International Energy Agency said it provided about 85% of Uzbekistan’s total energy and electricity supplies. The government expected gas demand to rise by 30% to 65 bcm by 2030, while electricity demand would roughly double. The IEA also warned that reserves would last fewer than 20 years at the production rate then prevailing. This was a reserve-to-production estimate, not a fixed depletion date. New discoveries or investment could extend it. Lower consumption would do the same. The government has responded with a rapid renewable buildout. In 2025, solar and wind plants generated more than 10.5 billion kWh of electricity. Renewable generation, including hydropower, reached 16.8 billion kWh. The Ministry of Energy said this saved about 3.2 bcm of natural gas. That saving was equivalent to roughly half the volume Russia supplied during the year. It shows that renewables already ease the shortage. Yet 3.2 bcm remains far below the roughly 20 bcm fall in annual gas production since 2018. On current figures, the green transition is slowing the impact of the decline, not yet offsetting it. The buildout forms part of Uzbekistan’s 2019 Green Economy Transition Strategy. Renewable projects bring foreign investment and create opportunities for domestic suppliers. In December 2025, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said local companies had supplied $700 million of materials and electrical equipment while also providing services to energy projects. Renewable generation also limits import demand by reducing the gas burned in power stations. Large projects depend heavily on decisions by the state. Procurement and land allocation affect who receives contracts. Grid access and investment approvals shape how quickly plants are completed. RFE/RL has documented concerns over opaque subcontracting in Uzbekistan’s solar sector. Its 2024 investigation found that two subcontractors on the Sherabad project were absent from publicly available documents. One company had been incorporated only two days after construction began. A founder denied accusations of corruption, while principal contractor Masdar did not respond to questions. The investigation did not establish that the...

Aral Sea

Aral Sea Restoration Could Prevent 605 Million Tons of CO2 Emissions

The drying of the Aral Sea has created another environmental problem: according to a study, exposed lakebed sediments released about 748 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere between 1960 and 2022. Organic carbon remains stored in the sediments, and restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. This gives efforts to restore the Aral Sea region a new climate dimension. The study, conducted by an international team of researchers led by scientists from Spain’s Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), was published in Science on July 16. The findings add another consideration to restoration efforts already underway across the region, from refilling part of the sea in Kazakhstan to planting saxaul and rehabilitating degraded land in Uzbekistan. The Aral Sea’s Carbon Legacy When the Aral Sea was still a fully-fledged body of water, plants and algae absorbed carbon dioxide, while some organic matter settled on the lakebed. As the water retreated, those sediments were exposed to the air, organic matter began to decompose, and the stored carbon started returning to the atmosphere as CO2. At the same time, winds carry salt and dust from the newly formed Aralkum Desert, spreading the consequences of the sea’s disappearance far beyond its former shoreline. In 2022, researchers conducted an expedition to the dried Aral Sea bed, collecting sediment samples and measuring how much CO2 was being released. Combined with satellite data, this allowed them to estimate carbon losses as the sea retreated. According to the researchers’ calculations, exposed sediments lost about 204 million tons of carbon between 1960 and 2022, equivalent to roughly 748 million tons of CO2. New vegetation growing on the dried lakebed has offset less than 1% of those emissions. A significant amount of organic carbon remains in the sediments. The researchers estimate that restoring water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. The authors also considered the economics of such an effort. Using 2024 voluntary carbon market prices for land-use and forestry projects as a benchmark, they estimate that the avoided emissions could potentially be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits. That money could theoretically become one source of funding for ecosystem restoration. Researchers estimate that about $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could increase inflows enough to restore roughly half of the area covered by the Aral Sea in 1960, while potentially generating about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits. Restoring the Entire Aral Sea Is No Longer the Goal Under current conditions, fully restoring the sea is widely considered unrealistic. The central issue is water. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya flow through several Central Asian countries. Significantly increasing the amount of water reaching the Aral Sea would be impossible without basin-wide agreements, irrigation modernization, and reductions in water losses. This is why restoration of the Aral Sea remains a regional issue rather than solely an Uzbek or Kazakh one. Central Asian countries coordinate part of this work...

Environmental Safeguards

Pasture Gives Way to Solar Power in Uzbekistan as Audit Remains Unpublished

Each spring, nine households grazed livestock on a stretch of desert pasture in Uzbekistan’s Bukhara Region. The land is now the site of the Nur Bukhara solar and battery plant, but an audit intended to show whether promised livelihood protections worked remains unpublished. Seven of the households came from the nearby settlement of Kirilishon and used the state-owned pasture without permits or formal agreements. A herder and his partner, identified publicly only as H1 and H2, grazed animals there through a short-term agreement with Alat Qorakolchilik LLC, a local livestock company holding a sublease on the land. The nine households included 43 people. The plant began operating in September 2025 and was inaugurated that December. The Uzbek government awarded the project to Masdar, an Abu Dhabi-based renewable energy developer that built the facility and now operates it. Nur Bukhara combines a 250-megawatt solar plant with a 63-megawatt battery system capable of storing 126 megawatt-hours of electricity. Masdar says it can supply more than 55,000 homes, while the World Bank described it as Central Asia’s first utility-scale renewable energy project to combine solar generation with battery storage. During a consultation on May 7, 2023, Kirilishon residents asked for the solar plant to be moved. If construction went ahead, they wanted replacement grazing land near the village and priority consideration for project jobs. H1 and H2 had a documented right to use the pasture, while the seven Kirilishon households did not. However, the safeguards required by Nur Bukhara’s international lenders covered both formal and informal users whose livelihoods would be disrupted by the project. Masdar commissioned a livelihood restoration plan setting out the assistance the households were to receive before construction cut off access to the site. It identified about 260 hectares of replacement pasture, equivalent to one square mile, for H1 and H2. Alat Qorakolchilik also identified approximately 1,000 hectares, or 3.9 square miles, of additional land available to herders. The seven informal households were to be allowed to use replacement pasture without obtaining formal agreements. The larger tract was not described as land reserved exclusively for those households. The published map did not record which final area each household would receive. The livelihood measures also included priority access to project employment and additional support for households considered vulnerable. In an official statement to The Times of Central Asia, a Masdar spokesperson said replacement grazing arrangements were provided before access to the project site was restricted, “maintaining equivalent grazing conditions,” and that “several members of affected households obtained project-related employment opportunities.” The statement cited monitoring by international lenders and an independent third-party review, with the completion audit finalized in September 2025. It reported no related complaints from affected households through the project’s grievance mechanism. The completion audit was not included with Masdar’s response. As of August 20, 2026, it was also absent from Masdar’s Nur Bukhara page and the International Finance Corporation’s project disclosure. Simonyan Consulting, which says it was engaged by the project company to conduct the audit, lists the assignment as “2025–ongoing.” Without the audit,...

Environmental Assessment

Uzbekistan’s $5 Billion Sea Breeze Resort Awaits Environmental Review

Uzbekistan’s environmental authorities have still not received the full set of documents for Sea Breeze Uzbekistan, a controversial $5 billion resort planned on the shore of the Charvak Reservoir. Azerbaijani businessman Emin Agalarov presented the project to Uzbek authorities in late 2024, and Agalarov Development is participating in the venture. Although the government approved the investment project in August 2025 and public hearings were held in January, key technical documents required for the second stage of the state environmental review remain outstanding. Sea Breeze is planned to cover 577 hectares on the eastern shore of Charvak, around 80 kilometers from Tashkent. The year-round resort is expected to include hotels and residential developments, along with dining and entertainment facilities. Gayrat Mukhamedov, director of the State Center for Environmental Expertise, told Gazeta.uz that “only the first stage of the procedure,” involving the selection and allocation of land, has been completed. The center has not yet received the documents needed to assess the environmental impact of the complex itself. The location has been one of the main sources of controversy surrounding the project. Charvak lies in the foothills of the Western Tien Shan and remains one of Uzbekistan’s most popular recreational areas. After the Sea Breeze plans were published, environmentalists and civic activists called for more information about the potential impact of development on the reservoir. In the summer of 2025, the #SaveChorvoq campaign emerged on social media. On August 1, 2025, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the investment project. It is being implemented by Sea Breeze Uzbekistan LLC, a joint venture established with the participation of Agalarov Development. One of the conditions is protecting Charvak from pollution. Wastewater must be taken outside the coastal zone and sent to a centralized treatment system, with no discharge into the reservoir. The requirement applies both during construction and during the subsequent operation of the resort. Mukhamedov said the environmental review center is still waiting for final technical data on the treatment system, including its capacity, as well as definitive figures for the resort’s accommodation capacity and the number of cottages, homes, and other facilities. Public hearings on the environmental impact assessment for Sea Breeze were held in Bostanlyk District on January 23, 2026. The issues scheduled for discussion included the project’s impact on water, air, and soil, waste management, preservation of green areas, and environmental monitoring. At the hearings, project representatives discussed the future sewage system, wastewater treatment, and measures to preserve biodiversity. The plan envisaged wastewater being collected through a centralized sewage system for treatment away from the reservoir. The public hearings, however, do not replace the second stage of the state environmental review. More than six months later, the technical documents for that stage have still not been submitted. Mukhamedov said the next phase will depend in part on seasonal studies by Uzbekistan’s Institute of Botany and Institute of Zoology into the possible effects on local flora and fauna. The work is expected to span autumn, winter, and spring, while the environmental review...

Syr Darya River

Central Asian States Plan Automated Water Monitoring on the Syr Darya

Central Asian countries have agreed to prepare a plan for automated water monitoring on the Syr Darya, one of the region’s main transboundary rivers. The system is intended to provide the countries with more accurate data on water volumes and distribution across the basin, where irrigated agriculture in several countries depends on river flows. The cost of weak coordination across Central Asia is already measured in billions: the World Bank estimates the region’s annual economic losses at more than $4.5 billion. The agreement was reached on August 7 in Turkistan, Kazakhstan. A working group to prepare the plan is expected to be established by the end of September. The decision was made at a meeting of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination, a regional mechanism for coordinating the use of shared water resources. The Syr Darya is formed in the Ferghana Valley by the confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya rivers, flows through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, and ends in the North Aral Sea. The Naryn originates in Kyrgyzstan, meaning that management of the basin involves four countries. The Syr Darya supplies major agricultural areas, while a cascade of reservoirs and hydropower plants links the distribution of river flows with electricity generation. The countries’ interests have not always coincided. In the upper reaches of the basin, water is used for hydropower generation, while farther downstream demand peaks during the summer irrigation season. Accurate monitoring and timely data exchange help countries plan water withdrawals and reservoir operations during months with the highest demand. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are already developing part of the future system. The two countries are automating ten hydrological monitoring stations on the Syr Darya, five on each side of the border. Sensors are expected to record water flow and transmit the data online. At the meeting in Turkistan, the two sides agreed to accelerate efforts to secure grant financing and consider expanding the system to other parts of the basin. Kazakhstan already has experience with automated monitoring. On parts of its irrigation network, sensors remotely transmit data on water levels and pressure. Over the past decade, more than 800 kilometers of lined canals have also been rehabilitated in four regions, while irrigation system upgrades have covered more than 100,000 hectares of farmland. Uzbekistan is also seeking to reduce irrigation losses. Agriculture accounts for about 90% of the country’s water consumption. One project provides for the reconstruction of 259 kilometers of major canals and the installation of automated water-flow monitoring systems. The World Bank estimates the expected water savings at around 540 million cubic meters a year. The current season on the Kazakh section of the Syr Darya has so far been favorable. Since April 1, around three billion cubic meters of water have flowed into the Shardara Reservoir in southern Kazakhstan. This volume is higher than both last year’s figure and the long-term average. The region received additional funding for water projects in July. The World Bank allocated a $20 million grant to improve the management of...

World Bank

World Bank Approves $20 Million Project to Boost Cross-Border Water Cooperation in Central Asia

The World Bank has announced a $20 million grant to strengthen transboundary water cooperation in Central Asia. The project is intended to improve management of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins as climate change, ageing infrastructure, and rising demand increase pressure on shared water resources. The funding, approved by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors, will support the Central Asia Water Efficiency Cooperation Project (CAWEC). It will be implemented by the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC IFAS). EC IFAS’s current procurement notice identifies Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as the participating states. According to the World Bank, limited cooperation over shared water and energy resources costs the region more than $4.5 billion a year. The bank says fragmented reservoir operations, weak data sharing, and ageing infrastructure prevent countries from capturing gains that better regional coordination could provide. The project will strengthen regional institutions, modernize water accounting and information systems, and improve data sharing. By 2031, EC IFAS is expected to prepare feasibility studies, technical documents, and environmental assessments for up to six transboundary water infrastructure projects involving at least two countries. The $20 million grant will not finance the construction of those projects. The preparatory work is intended to help governments attract further investment for irrigation modernization, water conservation and storage, and coordinated management of shared rivers. It will also support digital systems and equipment for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Up to 100 staff members from regional water organizations will receive training. The World Bank estimates that around 40 million people will benefit directly or indirectly from improved regional water management. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea was established in 1993 by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to coordinate responses to the environmental and economic consequences of the Aral Sea disaster. The project concerns the Aral Sea basin’s two principal river systems. The Amu Darya is formed by headwaters rising mainly in the Pamirs and Hindu Kush and flows through or along Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The Syr Darya is fed by Tien Shan headwaters and crosses Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. Both rivers historically fed the Aral Sea. The grant arrives amid severe regional water stress. Central Asian governments agreed 2026 allocations from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya in November 2025, but low reservoir levels and reduced inflows continue to threaten irrigation and energy production. Kazakhstan is pursuing a parallel effort to restore the North Aral Sea, the section of the former inland sea fed by the Syr Darya. In a ministry statement, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov said an additional 1.2 billion cubic meters of water should be directed to the North Aral by the end of 2026. According to the ministry, 1.4 billion cubic meters have been delivered since October 1, 2025. The North Aral now contains 23.5 billion cubic meters of water, while salinity has fallen by about 10% from a year earlier. Fishermen caught 4,200 metric...