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Two Weeks After Crash, Russia Closes City Airspace and Azerbaijan Cancels Flight

Azerbaijan Airlines canceled a flight to the southwest Russian city of Kazan on Wednesday after the airspace over the city was closed as a security precaution, Azerbaijan’s state media reported. The cancellation of the Baku-Kazan-Baku flight came two weeks after an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan after, according to Azerbaijan, the aircraft was accidentally hit by Russian ground fire and diverted from a planned landing in Grozny, Chechnya. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not confirmed the Azerbaijani account, though he apologized and said Russian air defenses were repelling Ukrainian drones over Grozny and two other Russian areas at the time. Azertac, an Azerbaijani state news agency, said the cancellation of the Kazan-bound flight came after Russia’s announcement of its so-called “Kovyor,” or “carpet,” operation, in which airspace over an area is closed temporarily because of a perceived threat. Kazan has previously been targeted by long-range Ukrainian drones. The Kovyor protocol came under scrutiny after an Azerbaijani airliner crashed on Dec. 25 in Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people and leaving 29 survivors. Without naming Putin, President Ilham Aliyev has harshly criticized Russian officials for alleged attempts to cover up what happened by floating false theories about the cause of the crash and said the Kovyor plan was activated after the plane was shot at, indicating criminal liability. “If there was a threat to Russian airspace, the captain of the plane should have been informed about it immediately. The airspace should have been closed immediately and the plane should have turned back,” Aliyev said, according to APA, another Azerbaijani government news agency. “I should also note that about 10 days before the accident, a similar incident occurred near the city of Grozny. An AZAL plane was turned back halfway. Why was the crew not warned about it this time? Naturally, the investigation will show this.” Kazakhstan is leading the investigation team, which includes officials from Azerbaijan and Russia as well as input from Brazilian technicians who have examined the flight data and cockpit voice recorders from the Brazil-produced Embraer 190 plane. Kazakhstan has said a preliminary report is expected within 30 days of the crash. Azerbaijan Airlines suspended flights to some Russian cities after the crash.

Azerbaijan Russia Aktau Plane Crash Disaster Response AZAL Plane Crash Middle Powers Multi-vector Foreign Policy

Kazakhstan’s High-Stakes Balancing Act in the Aktau Crash Investigation

The Aktau crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, which killed 38 people on 25 December, was a tragic event with significant international repercussions. This devastating accident not only claimed lives but also raised critical questions about aviation safety and the handling of sensitive investigations. As investigators sought to determine its cause, Kazakhstan faced an important decision regarding the handling of the flight recorder. Ultimately, the country chose to transfer the recorder to Brazil, the manufacturer of the aircraft, rather than to the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as Russia had proposed. This decision reflected both technical and diplomatic considerations, marking a crucial moment in the unfolding investigation. By taking this decision, Kazakhstan adhered to established industry procedures for aviation safety investigations. Such a step highlights the country's commitment to transparency and global norms in aviation. The move is typical of the country's foreign policy under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose long diplomatic experience leads him to emphasize a rules-based approach over political considerations and to act in accord with established procedural norms. This choice ensured that the investigation would follow established international practices, thereby lending credibility to the process and reassuring global aviation stakeholders. This behavior is also in line with Kazakhstan's broader commitment to international law and a rules-based global order. Another notable example of this approach was its endorsement of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity through its refusal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or the independence of the Donbas regions. These decisions were not necessarily easy ones, given Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties with Russia, but they reinforced its commitment to global standards. While some observers might frame decisions like the Aktau recorder transfer as a “snub” to Russia, such characterizations would miss the point. Like Kazakhstan’s refusal to recognize Donbas as independent and its efforts to prevent the flow of military components in violation of Western sanctions, its actions are not meant to be about rejecting one partner in favor of another. Rather, acting in its own autonomous interests, Kazakhstan seeks to "do the right thing," because this maintains a consistent international profile with a steady foreign-policy course grounded in international law and practice. Kazakhstan’s mediation efforts extend beyond formal multilateral forums, showcasing its active engagement in regional and global diplomacy. The country provided a neutral platform for discussions between opposing factions in the conflict over Syria; and it has also worked to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting purely bilateral consultations and thus demonstrating its capacity to engage constructively in regional conflicts without taking sides. These efforts are in line with Kazakhstan’s larger foreign-policy strategy to act as a principled and impartial intermediary on the global stage, fostering dialogue and reducing hostilities. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s leadership in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) reflects its dedication to multilateralism and peaceful conflict resolution. Kazakhstan exemplifies the rising middle-power archetype also through its significant contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation. Its foreign policy operates on...

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Aliyev Takes Aim at Russia in Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has intensified his criticism of Russia, accusing it of a “cover-up” over the Azerbaijan Airlines plane which crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. During a televised address, Aliyev expressed Azerbaijan’s “surprise, regret, and righteous indignation” over what he described as “absurd” explanations for the crash. Departing from protocol, Aliyev delivered his address in Russian, a poignant choice that heightened the gravity of his message. “I can confidently say that the guilt for the deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in this accident lies with the representatives of the Russian Federation,” Aliyev stated. “We demand justice, we demand punishment of the guilty, we demand complete transparency and humane treatment… If the city of Grozny had taken timely measures to close Russian airspace over its territory, if all the rules of ground services had been observed, and if there had been coordination between the armed forces and civil services of the Russian Federation, then this tragedy would not have happened.” On Monday, Aliyev met with the two surviving flight attendants and the families of other crew members who perished, describing them as “heroes”. The Flight Recorders In a related development, Brazil has concluded its analysis of the black boxes from Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243. The Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA) confirmed that the findings were handed over to Kazakhstan’s Aviation Accident Investigation Department in line with international protocols for aircraft accident investigations. These results will contribute to the final report on the incident. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia (TCA), the incident led the Commission on Aviation Incident Investigation, headed by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, to decide to send the flight recorders to Brazil’s CENIPA. The investigation was conducted by three Brazilian specialists in collaboration with Azerbaijani and Russian experts. Chronology of the Crash The incident occurred on December 25, when an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near Aktau on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast. The plane was flying between Baku, Azerbaijan, and Grozny, Russia. Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed, and 29 were injured. The passengers included 37 Azerbaijani citizens, 6 Kazakhs, 3 Kyrgyz, and 16 Russians. On December 26, video footage showing small holes in the fuselage wreckage sparked speculation about possible external damage. Aviation and military analysts suggested the holes might have been caused by air defense systems, given reports from the Chechen authorities about the shooting down of Ukrainian drones in the area. This raised concerns about the potential for misidentification. [caption id="attachment_27352" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Chechen Pantsir Missile Launcher; image: Vitaly V. Kuzmin[/caption] When asked about the possibility of external fire, Kazakh Minister Marat Bozumbayev emphasized that conclusions would only be drawn after all available evidence had been examined. International Collaboration The Azerbaijani government rejected the idea of a Russian-led investigation, opting instead for an international team of experts, including representatives from Embraer. The black boxes were sent to CENIPA on December 29. The crash also prompted a temporary suspension...

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Kazakh Blogger, Jailed After Filming at Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Site, is Freed

A Kazakh blogger, who was sentenced to 10 days in prison after using a drone to film wreckage, emergency responders and bodies covered with tarps at the site of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crash in Kazakhstan, has been released. Azamat Sarsenbayev was convicted of disobeying a police order not to film and photograph at the Dec. 25 crash in a quickly held, late-night trial in a court in Fort-Shevchenko, more than 100 kilometers from Aktau, the Caspian Sea city where the plane hit the ground and burst into flames, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. He had disputed the charge, arguing that there were procedural violations and that, by law, he should have received a fine instead of a prison sentence. [caption id="attachment_27275" align="aligncenter" width="766"] Footage from the crash site; Azamat Sarsenbayev[/caption] The prosecution of Sarsenbayev partly shows the tension between periodic government efforts to monitor and restrict information, not just in Kazakhstan but also in other Central Asian countries, and the efforts of some bloggers, journalists and others to widen the scope for reporting, often at risk of prosecution and jail time. Regional governments sometimes warn of the threat of provocateurs spreading disinformation, though Sarsenbayev’s actions on the day of the crash appeared to be more in line with reporting the facts of a major international disaster. Drones enhance the reporting ability of some journalists, though there can be accompanying ethical, legal and security concerns about their use. The Embraer 190 plane crash is particularly sensitive because it involves criminal investigators and a delicate international backdrop. Azerbaijan says Russian ground fire hit the plane as it was trying to land at its planned destination in Russia-controlled Chechnya. Russia has apologized without directly confirming the Azerbaijani account. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation and preliminary findings are expected to be released later in January. On social media posts this weekend, Sarsenbayev provided details about his testimony to the judge during his trial, saying he had received calls from international news organizations and other outlets asking for help in covering the crash. He said he reached the scene at around 11 a.m. and deployed his drone about one kilometer away, without having any contact with police, and then approached a cordoned-off area to interview a representative from the Ministry of Emergency Situations who was giving official comments. Sarsenbayev said he told the judge that the media organizations that had contacted him did so “for paid collaboration to capture authentic, exclusive materials for their platforms” and that he had not taken any “explicit” images of crash victims, since their bodies were covered. “If there had been even the slightest hint of a breach of ´ethics´ or ´moral norms´ in my photographs, platforms like Instagram would have automatically blocked my posts, let alone news outlets that published my images. In that case, should we hold everyone accountable for photographing or filming incidents like car accidents or other similar events?” Sarsenbayev said he told the judge. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has promised more...

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How the Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Could Shake Relations with Russia

The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) airplane in Aktau, Kazakhstan, has the potential to significantly effect Azerbaijan's relations with Russia if Moscow mishandles the situation. To date, there has been a lack of transparency and responsiveness on the part of the Kremlin. The implications could include accelerating the deterioration of Moscow's influence in the region. These implications, therefore, concern not only the local countries, but any international actor having strategic interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, or otherwise concerned with their future role and place in the evolving post–Cold War international system. The Facts of the Disaster Given the rapid dissemination of information in the 2020s by electronic means, whereby authentic real-time videos made by first responders to the fuselage on the ground were uploaded to social media and available worldwide within minutes, the overall outline and some details of the incident are by now generally well known. The airplane was en route from Baku to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, when explosions in the air damaged the cabin. Very soon after, but not as a result of these explosions, the pilots completely lost all electronic orientation and navigation capabilities. According to one source close to Azerbaijan's investigation into the crash, preliminary results showed the plane was struck by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system and its communications were then paralyzed by electronic warfare systems on the approach into Grozny. Ukrainian military drones have repeatedly targeted Russia’s southern regions, triggering Russian air defenses. “No one claims that it was done on purpose,” the source said; but “taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft.” After being hit, the plane was refused emergency landing permission at Grozny (2.5 kilometers from where the incident occurred) and at least two other Russian airports in the North Caucasus (Makhachkala, 155 kilometers away, and Mineral’nye Vody, 225 kilometers), before being directed by local air control out over the Caspian Sea. Once there, the pilots made the decision to try to land in Aktau (435 kilometers away). Against all odds, they succeeded in avoiding the need to ditch the aircraft into the sea, which would have undoubtedly killed all on board and also destroyed the craft, making any investigation into what had happened impossible. In the event, according to the Kazakhstani authorities, out of 62 passengers and five crew, 32 survivors were initially rescued. Captain Igor Kshnyakin, Co-pilot (First Officer) Alexander Kalyaninov, and Purser Hokuma Aliyeva died when the front wheel touched down ahead of the back wheels, as a result of which the cockpit was thrown violently away from the ongoing wreck. However, this is what created the conditions for at least some of the passengers to survive, as it split the fuselage in two. The event has garnered international attention, including for the professionalism of the crew. What Has Happened Since At first, Kazakhstan declared its own unilateral competence to investigate the crash, which occurred on...

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Azerbaijan Tightens Visa Rules for Russians Amid Aktau Crash Fallout

The Azerbaijani government has announced new restrictions on the temporary stay of Russian citizens, effective January 1, 2025. Under the new rules, Russian citizens and stateless persons residing in Russia will be limited to a maximum of 90 days per calendar year without a visa. The announcement comes in the wake of a tragic plane crash involving an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. The plane, which had taken off from Baku headed to Grozny, Chechnya, crashed, killing 38 people and injuring 29 others. Kazakhstan is currently leading the investigation into the incident. Accusations and Responses Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has stated that the plane was struck by Russian ground fire while flying over Russian territory. He accused Russia of attempting to obscure the truth by spreading “absurd theories” about the crash. Russian President Vladimir Putin had issued an apology for the incident one day before Aliyev's remarks, but did not admit responsibility for the alleged ground fire. International Reactions The crash has prompted flight suspensions to Russia by several airlines, citing safety concerns. Turkmenistan: Flights on the Ashgabat-Moscow-Ashgabat route have been canceled from December 30, 2024, to January 31, 2025. The reason for the decision has not been disclosed, but the airline previously operated twice-weekly flights to Moscow. Kazakhstan: Kazakh Air has suspended its Astana-Yekaterinburg route from December 28, 2024, to January 27, 2025, to ensure passenger safety. Israel: Israeli airline El Al has halted flights on the Tel Aviv-Moscow route until next week, citing “events in Russian airspace.” UAE: Flydubai has suspended flights to Sochi and Mineralnye Vody due to technical reasons. Flights to Sochi are expected to resume on January 2, while services to Mineralnye Vody will restart on January 3. In a symbolic gesture, an Uzbekistan Airways plane circled Aktau Airport twice in memory of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash victims. Broader Implications The tragedy and subsequent allegations have heightened tensions in the region and raised concerns about air travel safety in Russian airspace. While investigations are ongoing, the incident underscores the geopolitical sensitivities and potential risks associated with the aviation sector in this area.