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What Does Turkey’s “Return” to Europe Mean for Central Asia?

Turkey’s ties with Europe are undergoing a reinvigoration. This phenomenon is foregrounded by recent high-level diplomatic engagements and burgeoning military and economic linkages, which may at first glance appear as a realignment within the Euro-Atlantic system. It holds deeper implications, however, and most consequentially for Central Asia. Turkey is re-entering the European strategic imagination, this time not as a supplicant but as a self-assured middle power. Europe's altered international environment, by changing its external posture, will provide the Central Asian states with additional geopolitical resources in a world marked by shifting alignments and competing centers of power. To grasp the systems-level implications of this shift, one must first dispense with the linear narrative of bilateralism that has long framed Turkey-Europe or Turkey-Central Asia relations in isolation. Instead, Turkey’s position as a hub of multi-vectorial networks — anchored in NATO, increasingly interlocked with EU markets, yet culturally and politically entwined with Turkic Central Asia — makes it a proactive agent whose movement in one sphere triggers systemic perturbations across others. Thus, when Turkey edges closer to Europe, it also subtly reconfigures the vector of Central Asia’s international relations. The second Trump administration is continuing the transition in Europe’s security architecture that was inaugurated during the first. With longstanding assumptions about American commitment to the Atlantic alliance shaken, Europe finds itself unmoored. In this new context, Turkey’s military interventions — its incursions in northern and now central Syria, its containment of Russian advances in Ukraine, and its supply of military drones to Azerbaijan — demonstrate a degree of strategic autonomy that is rare among NATO members. Europe has noticed. The readjustment of its view of Turkey is evident through invitations to summits with key EU players, overtures from German and Polish leaders, and discussions around deepening the customs union. Turkey is no longer peripheral country knocking at the EU’s door; shifts in the international system have made it an increasingly indispensable node in the continent’s security and energy architectures. This European courtship of Turkey has ramifications well beyond Brussels or Berlin, or even Ankara. For the Central Asian states, afflicted by asymmetric dependencies on Russia, Turkey’s geopolitical normalization with Europe presents a "demonstration effect". That is, it puts the spotlight on a regional actor that is using soft power affinities and hard power capabilities to parlay its peripheral status into centrality. Turkey’s return to Europe showcases a successful strategy of multidirectional engagement. Such "strategic hedging" obviates obedience to any single bloc, instead leveraging the overall system's recursive entanglements for national-interest advantage. The Turkish-Azerbaijani partnership is illustrative. Turkey’s provision of military assistance used during the Second Karabakh War in 2020, notably the Bayraktar TB2 drones, enabled Azerbaijan to shift the regional balance. Russia is no longer the hegemonic power in the South Caucasus and must compete in a condition where it is diplomatically and militarily weakened by its war against Ukraine. Baku stands to benefit from its multisectoral economic cooperation with Ankara, which goes far beyond military assistance. Specifically, Azerbaijan's partnership with Turkey...

Transit Azerbaijan Oil Oil and Gas Decarbonization

Kazakhstan Agrees to Increase Oil Transit Through Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR have agreed to increase the transit of Kazakh oil through the Aktau-Baku-Ceyhan route in 2025. The decision was made during a meeting in Baku between KazMunayGas Chairman Askhat Hasenov and SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf, where they reviewed progress on the 2022 oil transportation agreement. At the end of 2024, the volume of Kazakh oil transported through Azerbaijan reached 1.4 million tons. Under the new plan, this figure is set to increase to 1.7 million tons in 2025. The expansion will enhance the transit potential of both Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, while boosting Kazakhstan’s access to global energy markets. Focus on Decarbonization and Energy Cooperation During the talks, the two companies also discussed their strategic partnership on decarbonization, which was formalized at the 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP-29) in Azerbaijan. The agreement focuses on: Introducing low-carbon technologies in the oil and gas sector. Reducing harmful emissions from energy production. Additionally, discussions covered joint exploration projects, oil and gas production, investment opportunities, and the digitalization of industrial processes. “SOCAR is a key partner of KazMunayGas. Together, we will continue to contribute to global energy security and the stability of hydrocarbon supplies. This partnership will create new transit opportunities through the Caspian region,” said Hasenov. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan’s Broader Cooperation Beyond oil transit, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan recently signed an agreement to construct an underwater fiber-optic communication line across the Caspian Sea. The deal was finalized during Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov’s recent visit to Baku. This project, along with the expanded oil transit, highlights the deepening economic and strategic partnership between the two Caspian nations.

Russia China Azerbaijan Armenia Middle Corridor United States Trump Administration

Opinion: Washington Needs a Stronger Policy for the Middle Corridor

The inauguration of President Donald Trump marks a new phase in U.S. foreign policy with direct implications for the Middle Corridor, a key trade route linking China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), has been gaining increasing strategic importance as global trade patterns shift and great-power competition intensifies. During Trump’s first term, U.S. engagement in the region was sporadic and lacked a comprehensive strategy. While some policy initiatives were undertaken to counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence in Eurasia, these efforts remained piecemeal. The Biden administration attempted to address this gap by allocating limited funding for infrastructure development and engaging in regional negotiations aimed at fostering greater connectivity. However, Biden’s approach ultimately fell short of a coherent, long-term policy, allowing Moscow and Beijing to consolidate their positions in the region. The significance of the Middle Corridor has been underscored by increased international investment. Beyond economic concerns, the Middle Corridor plays a critical role in Europe’s energy security. The corridor facilitates the westward flow of Caspian resources, providing an alternative to Russian energy exports. The development of the Middle Corridor offers a strategic means of achieving this goal, reinforcing the EU’s energy independence while simultaneously strengthening economic ties with the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Azerbaijan has emerged as a central player in the development of the Middle Corridor. As a crucial transit country, Baku has actively pursued infrastructure investments to bolster the corridor’s efficiency. Azerbaijan’s role is further magnified by its growing energy exports to Europe, solidifying its position as a strategic partner in regional energy security. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, a vital component of the corridor, has received continued investment, underscoring Azerbaijan’s commitment to enhancing trade and transit connectivity. However, Azerbaijan’s increasing importance also intersects with ongoing geopolitical complexities, particularly its relationship with Armenia. The absence of Armenian participation in the Middle Corridor remains a notable gap, one that is directly tied to the resolution of long-standing territorial disputes. The prospect of an Armenia–Azerbaijan peace treaty has gained traction in recent years, supported by Western diplomatic efforts. U.S. policymakers have recognized that sustainable peace between the two nations would not only stabilize the South Caucasus but also unlock Armenia’s potential role in the corridor. Armenia’s geopolitical realignment presents both opportunities and challenges. While Yerevan has signaled its interest in deepening ties with the West, it remains economically dependent on Russia, particularly in energy and financial sectors. Increased Armenian exports to Russia, some of which analysts suspect may involve re-exports of sanctioned goods, further complicate efforts to shift its economic orientation. Recent discussions within U.S. policy circles indicate a growing recognition of the Middle Corridor’s strategic importance. American policymakers have begun exploring ways to expand support for infrastructure development in the region, recognizing that a proactive approach could yield multiple geopolitical and economic benefits. By investing in the Middle Corridor, the U.S. has an opportunity to enhance regional stability, strengthen economic ties with key partners, and counterbalance Russian...

Azerbaijan AZAL Plane Crash Aktau Plane Crash Chechnya Kadyrov

Azerbaijan Mulls Praise from Chechnya Two Months After Crash

Two months ago, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashed in Kazakhstan after – Azerbaijan says – it was accidentally hit by Russian ground fire in the Russian region of Chechnya. Now Chechnya’s leader says he wants to give an award to the surviving crew members, an announcement that initially angered some people in Azerbaijan, considering the alleged culpability of forces on the ground. Two of five crewmembers survived the Dec. 25 crash that killed a total of 38 people on the airliner that had been flying from Baku to Grozny, Chechnya’s capital, only to divert across the Caspian Sea and crash near the Kazakh city of Aktau. Twenty-nine people survived. A preliminary report led by Kazakhstan ruled out technical malfunction and said parts of the plane were hit by foreign objects. The report didn’t confirm the objects were missile shrapnel. On Feb. 27, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin who has sent troops to fight with Russian forces against Ukraine, said surviving Azerbaijan Airlines flight attendants Zulfugar Asadov and Aydan Rahimli had been nominated for the "For Merit to the Chechen Republic" award because of their courage and professionalism. “In memory of the victims of the air disaster, a memorial plaque will be installed in Grozny,” Kadyrov said on Telegram. “Flight attendants have always been the first line of support for passengers, ensuring their safety and comfort during flights. In the face of crisis, they acted swiftly and decisively, doing everything they could to assist those on board, said Kadyrov, who expressed condolences to Azerbaijan and its people and spoke of “our shared grief.” Media in Azerbaijan widely covered Kadyrov’s statement about the flight attendants, which was unlikely to ease Azerbaijani demands that those suspected of shooting at the airliner be turned over for prosecution. On the contrary, the Caliber.Az media outlet reported that the Chechen leader’s award was initially met with “public outrage” in Azerbaijan. However, another Azerbaijan-based organization, the Trend News Agency, said Azerbaijan had concluded that Kadyrov’s statement was “acceptable” because investigations showed that Russian military personnel, not Chechnya’s leadership, were responsible. Trend cited an unidentified source in Azerbaijan’s government. Kadyrov is a Putin loyalist with considerable autonomy whose forces have been accused of killings, disappearances and other abuses. Chechen troops, sometimes compared to a private army, are nominally under federal Russian control. Putin has apologized for the crash, saying Russian air defenses were repelling attacks by Ukrainian drones at the time when the Azerbaijani plane was trying to land. He has not acknowledged that the plane was hit by Russian fire.

Aktau Plane Crash AZAL Plane Crash Disaster Response Azerbaijan Russia

In Azerbaijan, Anger Toward Russia Simmers After Plane Crash Report

Commentators in Azerbaijan have reacted to a preliminary report on the Dec. 25 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane with another round of scathing criticism of Russia, which Azerbaijan accuses of accidentally firing on the aircraft from the ground. The report that was released on Tuesday by Kazakhstan, where the passenger plane crashed after diverting from a planned landing in Russia, did not clear up whether Russia had fired on the plane, saying only that objects that were not part of the plane had struck it and caused significant damage. While a full report is in the works, that could take many more months, during which time tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia are likely to stew or escalate unless Azerbaijan gets the full apology and accountability that it demands. Some analysts in Azerbaijan are already fuming about what they characterize as an evasive statement by Russian civil aviation authority Rosaviatsiya about the preliminary report on the crash that killed 38 out of the 67 people on the plane. The Russian statement on Telegram noted that the report “does not contain conclusions about the causes of the incident” and acknowledged that the plane was damaged by external impacts. “However, the report does not indicate that the Kazakh side identified foreign objects inside the aircraft, while the Russian Federation has not yet had the opportunity to examine these elements, as they have not been handed over for expert analysis,” Rosaviatsiya said. The statement also notes that the crew of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane on the Baku-Grozny route “independently” decided to divert to Aktau, Kazakhstan, even though Russian air traffic controllers had proposed other Russian airports for landing. Lastly, it says the pilots of the Embraer 190 aircraft told Russian air traffic controllers that there had been a bird strike and an oxygen cylinder explosion on the plane, theories that have been widely attributed to the pilots’ confusion at the time and have since been almost entirely discredited. “This means that the Russian side is still clinging to the crew's assumptions as a lifeline. While Baku does not accuse Moscow of deliberately downing the aircraft, it is strongly urging Russia to take responsibility,” Samir Veliyev wrote in an analysis on Caliber, a Baku-based news organization. “The situation as it stands today clearly shows that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Russian side to deny its involvement in the incident. So why drag this out? Baku will not back down from its already stated position, which is based on irrefutable facts,” Veliyev wrote. Another news outlet in Azerbaijan, aze.media, said Russia knew about the investigation results in advance and could have acknowledged its alleged role. “But instead, the Kremlin, as always, chose the ‘we know nothing’ tactic and decided to simply ignore the obvious,” aze.media said in an opinion piece. Numerous aviation and security specialists have said damage to the plane’s fuselage is consistent with shrapnel marks. Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone conversation. However, the...

Russia Azerbaijan Disaster Response AZAL Plane Crash Aktau Plane Crash

“Mayday! Mayday!” Kazakhstan Releases Report on AZAL Plane Crash

A preliminary report on the Dec. 25 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane in Kazakhstan contains details that could be consistent with widespread assertions that the aircraft was damaged by ground fire during an earlier attempt to land as planned in Russia. But the report, released on Tuesday by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport, leaves many questions unanswered about the crash that killed 38 out of the 67 people on board the plane and sharpened tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. [caption id="attachment_28337" align="aligncenter" width="923"] Image: Department for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Transport preliminary report[/caption] An investigation is ongoing and a final report will be prepared on the disaster just outside the Kazakh city of Aktau, meaning that more information could emerge on Russia’s alleged culpability in the case. While the preliminary report helps to fill out a picture of the chaos and confusion that unfolded on the Embraer 190 plane on the Baku-Grozny route, it is unlikely to satisfy Azerbaijan, which accused Russia of a coverup and demanded accountability. The report on the politically sensitive case says its purpose is to focus on aviation safety and not to establish anyone’s guilt. Assigning blame could come in criminal cases that were opened by Azerbaijani and Kazakh prosecutors, though holding those responsible to account, especially if they are in Russia, will be a challenge. [caption id="attachment_28338" align="aligncenter" width="851"] Image: Department for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Transport preliminary report[/caption] The report says parts of the plane were hit by objects from outside the plane and photos show portions of the fuselage riddled with holes, but the analysis doesn’t confirm that they were the result of missile shrapnel as some security and aviation analysts have said. “The initial inspection of the surviving fragments revealed numerous through and non-through damages of various sizes and shapes in the tail section of the fuselage, vertical stabilizer and stabilizer, elevator and rudder. Similar damages were found on the left engine and left wing of the aircraft, as well as on the units and components of the aircraft. In some places, the damages have a regular rectangular shape,” the report said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone conversation. However, the Russian leader did not acknowledge that the aircraft had been accidentally hit by Russian fire before diverting to Aktau. Russia has said the area was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time. Kazakhstan has led the investigation, which includes representatives from Azerbaijan, Russia and Brazil. The Canada-based International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations agency that oversees aviation safety, is also involved. The preliminary report provides a picture of the flight and subsequent crash that is consistent with past accounts of survivors and other sources of information, though it also offers gripping detail from the data and cockpit voice recorders that were recovered and analyzed in Brazil, where the plane model is made. At one point, the sound of a boom is recorded. Citing the...