Energy Sector - The Times Of Central Asia

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Jet Fuel

Jet Fuel Shortages Threaten Kazakhstan’s Aviation Growth Despite Expansion Plans

Kazakhstan’s aviation industry is demonstrating steady growth. By the end of 2025, the country’s airports had served 31.8 million passengers, up from 29.7 million in 2024, and handled 173,300 tons of cargo compared with 170,900 tons a year earlier. Total airline passenger traffic reached 20.7 million, and more than 35 new international routes were launched. The government plans to expand regional transport links and attract investment into the aviation sector. It also aims to increase the number of international routes. The industry is working to develop airport hubs and accommodate growing passenger demand, while positioning Kazakhstan as a transit country. These plans will depend in part on the availability of aviation fuel. Shortages of aviation kerosene in Kazakhstan have moved beyond an industry concern and are becoming an issue of energy and transport policy, as well as a potential source of economic risk. Despite being one of the world’s major oil producers, Kazakhstan continues to rely on imports of petroleum products. Of roughly 100 million tons of oil produced annually, only about 18 million tons are refined domestically. Although refining volumes and petroleum product output increased in 2025, the country still imports diesel and jet fuel at higher prices. According to Argus data, the cost of imported jet fuel at the Russian-Kazakh border averaged $765 per ton at the beginning of 2025. By early summer, the price had fallen to $610 per ton, before rising by nearly 60% in November to $975 per ton, excluding VAT. In 2026, the domestic supply situation may become more complicated. In addition to volatility in global markets, including tensions in the Middle East, scheduled maintenance shutdowns at oil refineries are expected to affect output. This year, all three major refineries, Atyrau Oil Refinery, Pavlodar Petrochemical Plant, and PetroKazakhstan Oil Products, are scheduled for maintenance, which will temporarily reduce fuel production. According to data provided by the national oil and gas company KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s refineries produced 726,000 tons of jet fuel last year. Under the Ministry of Economy’s indicative plan, output is expected to reach 750,000 tons in 2026. Demand for jet fuel is rising due to the active development of the air transport market and an increase in flight frequency. KazMunayGas is implementing measures to expand production and introduce new technologies. By 2030, refinery modernization is expected to increase jet fuel output. Deputy Minister of Energy Kaiyrkhan Tutkyshbaev told The Times of Central Asia that plans are being considered to increase jet fuel production from the current 0.7 million tons to 1.7 million tons per year through phased refinery capacity expansion from 17 million to 27.7 million tons by 2030. This includes expanding the Shymkent refinery from 6 million to 12 million tons of crude per year, the Pavlodar refinery from 5.5 million to 9 million tons in two phases and increasing secondary refining capacity at the Atyrau refinery by 0.7-1.2 million tons. Additionally, domestic jet fuel production is expected to grow by 50,000 tons annually between 2026 and 2028. With consumption projected at 1.18...

Electricity

Kyrgyzstan Plans Gradual Electricity Tariff Increases to Address Energy Sector Deficit

Kyrgyzstan will raise household electricity tariffs starting May 1, as part of a broader reform program aimed at reducing subsidies and bringing tariffs closer to the actual cost of power generation. Under the new policy, the household tariff will increase by approximately $0.003 per kilowatt-hour, reaching $0.018 per kWh. According to the Ministry of Energy, tariffs are expected to continue rising each May until at least 2030, when they are projected to fully cover production costs. The government has outlined a tentative schedule for further increases: 2027: rise of about $0.004 per kWh 2028: rise of about $0.0045 per kWh 2029: rise of about $0.005 per kWh 2030: rise of about $0.0065 per kWh Even after the planned increase in 2026, households will cover only around 45% of the real cost of electricity, Timur Orozaliev, Director of the Department for Regulation of the Fuel and Energy Complex, told the Kabar state news agency. He said the cost of electricity production in 2026 is estimated at approximately $0.034 per kWh, meaning the new tariff will pay for less than half of actual generation costs. Electricity tariffs for industrial enterprises, financial institutions, restaurants, and government agencies are already two to three times higher than those for households. Despite the planned increases, electricity prices in Kyrgyzstan remain among the lowest in Central Asia. Electricity demand continues to grow. In 2025, national consumption reached 19.3 billion kWh, an increase of 900 million kWh compared with the previous year. Of this total, 15.4 billion kWh was generated domestically, while 3.9 billion kWh was imported from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Kyrgyzstan regularly experiences seasonal power shortages, particularly during winter, when many households rely on electricity for heating. To address the deficit, the government is working to build new hydropower plants and modernise existing facilities as part of a broader strategy to stabilise the national energy system and reduce dependence on electricity imports.

Energy Sector

Tajikistan Plans $6.5 Billion Investment in Energy Sector

Tajikistan will require approximately $6.5 billion to implement its 2026-2030 Energy Sector Development Program, with funding expected from a combination of external and internal sources, including international partners and the state budget. Planned funding sources include: Development partners: $3.94 billion Private investment: $2.56 billion The state budget, primarily to finance the ongoing construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP), which is supported annually through a dedicated budget line. In 2025 alone, more than $970 million was allocated from the state budget to the Rogun project, accounting for roughly 20% of all approved treasury expenditures. Support for Tajikistan’s fuel and energy complex remains one of the top budgetary priorities. The draft state budget for 2026 earmarks $1.61 billion for the sector, equivalent to 22.4% of total planned expenditures. The program will primarily focus on large-scale hydropower development. In parallel, the government aims to expand renewable energy capacity. Solar power plants with a combined capacity of 1.5 GW are planned for construction in the Sughd and Khatlon regions. Authorities also plan to explore the potential for wind energy. Another key objective is increasing electricity exports and contributing to frequency regulation within Central Asia’s regional power networks. Achieving this will require infrastructure upgrades, including construction of the Rogun-Saihun 500 kV transmission line and the modernization of existing substations. Domestically, the program calls for the replacement of outdated equipment, renovation of distribution networks, and the installation of smart meters to enhance energy reliability and efficiency.

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan vs Eni: How a Swiss Lawsuit Could Reshape the $160 Billion Kashagan Dispute

The legal landscape surrounding Kazakhstan’s energy sector has taken an unexpected turn. What began as a closed commercial arbitration dispute has now entered the public sphere in Switzerland’s courts. This marks a significant escalation in Astana’s confrontation with international oil and gas majors. According to Bloomberg, PSA LLP, a structure representing Kazakhstan’s interests in production-sharing agreements (PSAs), has significantly broadened its claims. The lawsuit now directly targets alleged schemes involving units and executives of the Italian company Eni. Kazakhstan alleges that during the early development of Kashagan infrastructure, including the Bolashak processing plant and pipeline systems, corruption and fraud may have occurred. Arbitration claims against the NCOC consortium, which includes Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Eni, exceed $150 billion. Within this context, the Swiss case has become the most sensitive element. The Swiss case itself is much smaller – $15 million plus interest – and is being used to gather evidence and strengthen the larger arbitration case. While the financial stakes are high, the proceedings reflect a deeper political shift. Kazakhstan is moving away from the 1990s model of offering investors exceptional privileges. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s “Fair Kazakhstan” policy, the state is aiming to secure more balanced and equitable cooperation with foreign partners. Distinctiveness of Swiss Proceedings The Swiss case is distinctive due to the nature of its allegations. The plaintiffs claim that during the tenure of Agip KCO (an Eni subsidiary) as project operator, contracts were awarded amid corrupt practices. Allegations include inflated prices and kickbacks to contractors. Targeting Eni is deliberate. The company led the project during its most troubled phase from 2001 to 2008. Kashagan’s budget swelled during this period, with repeated delays. Following a 2013 gas leak, production was halted for nearly three years. Kazakh officials have long linked Kashagan’s massive cost overruns and technical failures to poor procurement and mismanagement, and the current legal offensive zeroes in on alleged corrupt tenders. Cost estimates rose from a few tens of billions of dollars to around $60 billion, and by 2007, projections for total project costs had reached about $136 billion. Why Switzerland? The selection of the Swiss jurisdiction is strategic. Switzerland’s laws on corruption and financial crimes allow for the prosecution of both corporations and individual executives. Moreover, many entities connected to Kashagan’s operations are registered there. Another factor is the PSA’s stabilization clause, which forbids altering the contract’s terms. However, under international legal norms, if corruption is proven in the contract’s formation, such protections can be voided. This opens the door for Kazakhstan to challenge key financial terms of the agreement. Resource Nationalism 2.0: Legal Strategy Meets Political Logic Astana’s current posture can be described as a form of “new-generation resource nationalism.” Rather than using administrative leverage, the state is deploying legal tools to address grievances. This is driven in part by Kazakhstan’s fiscal needs, ranging from infrastructure upgrades to social spending. Amid these pressures, the vast expenditures reported by Kashagan operators have drawn public skepticism. Kazakhstan’s claims aim to re-evaluate the cost recovery model...

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U.S. and Uzbekistan Sign Landmark Economic and Strategic Agreements

The United States and Uzbekistan are deepening their economic and technological partnership. Following President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, the U.S. State Department announced a sweeping package of agreements, described as among the most significant in the history of bilateral relations in both investment and strategic scope. High-Level Business Engagements During his Washington visit, President Mirziyoyev held talks with representatives from major American corporations, investment funds, and financial institutions. The meeting was attended by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Special Assistant to the President Ricky Gill, Special Assistant to the President Ricky Gill, Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Stephen Vaden, and executives from companies such as Traxys, FLSmidth, McKinsey, Meta, Google, Amazon, Boeing, Air Products, Axiom Space, Cove Capital, Freeport-McMoRan, Orion CMC, Cargill Cotton, John Deere, Honeywell, Valmont Industries, and Flowserve Corporation. Opening the event, Mirziyoyev highlighted that trade between Uzbekistan and the U.S. has quadrupled over the past eight years, and more than 300 American companies are now operating in the country. He added that this is just the beginning of a new era in economic cooperation. Key strategic goals were outlined: by 2030, Uzbekistan aims to develop a new-generation energy system with 18-20 GW of renewable capacity, more than half of it sourced from solar and wind. In this context, the two countries plan to jointly develop and process critical minerals such as uranium, copper, tungsten, molybdenum, and graphite, establishing resilient supply chains and leveraging U.S. processing technologies. Infrastructure is another major focus. Uzbekistan intends to invest over $12 billion by 2030 to modernize roads, railways, terminals, and airports. Digital cooperation is also expanding. Projects with Google, Meta, and NVIDIA include the launch of Apple Pay and Google Pay, the creation of a Digital Academy, and the development of startup hubs. These initiatives are expected to be supported by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the U.S. Exim Bank. Mirziyoyev reaffirmed his personal commitment to supporting American investment, stressing that Uzbekistan remains a stable and favorable destination for foreign businesses. Securing Access to Strategic Raw Materials Washington’s primary interest lies in critical minerals. The U.S. will gain priority access to joint mining projects and exclusive access to geological data on rare earth and other strategically significant elements. This move is part of a broader U.S. effort to diversify global sources of inputs vital to defense, green energy, and other high-tech sectors. The two countries are also preparing a $400 million investment package to develop sustainable supply chains for critical and rare earth minerals. For Uzbekistan, this represents a key step toward integration into global value chains and reduced reliance on limited partners. Energy Cooperation: A Role for Small Modular Reactors Uzbekistan plans to acquire American small modular reactors (SMRs), a technology increasingly favored by emerging economies for its scalability and relatively low upfront costs. Interest in SMRs has grown following the 2025 approval of the upgraded NuScale Power Module (77 MW), and Uzbekistan may become one of the first countries in...

Energy Sector

Pipelines Under Pressure: Ukraine War Hits Kazakhstan Energy Arteries

The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia continues to have indirect but notable implications for Kazakhstan’s energy sector. Following the September drone attack in Russia’s Novorossiysk that damaged the offices of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) - which exports the majority of Kazakhstan’s oil - another incident has raised concern: the October 19 strike on Russia’s Orenburg Gas Processing Plant, which handles gas from Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak field. The CPC confirmed that its export terminal continued operating after the September 24 incident, though two employees were injured and part of its office complex was damaged. The consortium remains the backbone of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, handling over 80% of national crude shipments to world markets. This concentration has long been viewed as a vulnerability because nearly all flows depend on infrastructure inside Russian territory. The war has underscored that risk, prompting Astana to accelerate plans for alternative routes across the Caspian Sea toward Azerbaijan and Georgia. Astana has been working with Baku and Tbilisi to expand capacity along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (Middle Corridor), supported by EU and World Bank funding commitments. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy confirmed that the plant, located about 150 kilometers northwest of Kazakhstan’s Karachaganak field across the Russian border, was temporarily shut down following the UAV strike. “According to information from PJSC Gazprom, on October 19, 2025, an emergency situation occurred at the Orenburg gas processing plant as a result of a UAV attack, in connection with which the plant temporarily stopped receiving raw gas from the Karachaganak field.” The Ministry added that gas supplies to domestic consumers remain unaffected and that consultations are underway with field operators to assess potential disruptions and losses. No details on the extent of the damage or repair timelines have been released by the Russian side. Ukraine’s military confirmed responsibility for the attack as part of its campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, according to statements reported by Interfax-Ukraine and Ukrainska Pravda. Industry analysts, however, remain cautious. Journalist Oleg Chervinsky noted that the Orenburg plant processes up to nine billion cubic meters of Karachaganak gas annually, a portion of which is returned to Kazakhstan’s northern regions. He warned that a prolonged shutdown could lead to supply shortages, particularly during the winter months. The timing of the Orenburg attack - just before the start of the heating season - adds a seasonal risk dimension. Olzhas Baidildinov, an expert in the energy sector, criticized delays in constructing a domestic gas processing facility at Karachaganak, arguing that reliance on foreign infrastructure heightens Kazakhstan’s vulnerability to regional conflict and economic disruptions. The replacement of damaged equipment, including components from France’s Technip, could also be complicated by sanctions and supply chain issues, ultimately impacting tariffs and consumer costs. The cumulative effect of reduced gas processing capacity and potential production slowdowns at Karachaganak could weigh on Kazakhstan’s already strained budget. While some observers note that reduced output may help the country align with its OPEC+ production commitments, previously exceeded at major fields including Kashagan, Tengiz, and Karachaganak, such...