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Kazakhstan to Begin Purchasing Electricity from Rogun HPP

Kazakhstan has announced plans to purchase electricity from Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower plant (HPP), a major facility currently under construction. According to a draft agreement published on Tajikistan's official legal information portal, the cooperation between the two countries is set to last for 20 years, with an option to extend for an additional 10 years. The price for the electricity is set at $0.034 per kilowatt-hour (excluding VAT), plus a transit surcharge determined by the seller’s costs. Payments are to be made within 35 days for each supply period. The supply will only occur during scheduled shortages and will be integrated into KEGOC’s national grid. Rogun HPP will handle transportation to the border, while the Settlement and Financial Center for Renewable Energy Support LLP will oversee control on the Kazakh side. Any disputes arising from the agreement will be resolved through the Singapore International Arbitration Center. Electricity agreements with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are a critical component for securing international financing for the Rogun HPP’s construction. Project costs have risen to $6.4 billion, according to recent estimates. To cover these costs, the Tajik government is negotiating semi-concessional loans worth $1.73 billion, $850 million in grants, and $390 million in concessional loans. The remainder will come from the government budget and revenues generated by the plant. This year, the Tajik government allocated 5 billion somoni (approximately $460 million) for the Rogun project, with 2.8 billion somoni coming from the state budget and 2.2 billion somoni from investment projects. By the end of September 2024, 4.3 billion somoni (about $395 million) had already been spent on construction. Once completed, Rogun HPP will become the largest hydropower facility in Central Asia, boasting a capacity of 3,600 MW and capable of producing up to 17 billion kWh of electricity annually. This output represents 65–85% of Tajikistan’s total electricity production. The plant will house six units of 600 MW each, with full commissioning expected by 2029. Currently, two units are operating at low capacity, having been commissioned in 2018 and 2019. The project serves as a landmark achievement for Tajikistan’s energy sector and a key driver of regional energy cooperation, promoting economic stability and resource-sharing throughout Central Asia.

EU Energy Infrastructure Economic Cooperation Electricity supply Export/Import Energy

Uzbekistan Aims to Export 10-15 Billion kWh of Electricity to Europe by 2030

Uzbekistan plans to export 10-15 billion kWh of electricity abroad by 2030, according to Deputy Minister of Energy Umid Mamadaminov, who discussed the initiative in an interview on November 6 during the “Days of European Economy in Uzbekistan” forum. “In 2030, electricity demand is projected to be around 120-125 billion kWh. Our generation capacity will reach approximately 135 billion kWh. Once the necessary infrastructure is ready, we’ll be able to export electricity to Europe,” Mamadaminov explained. At a meeting in Astana in August, Uzbekistan outlined plans to start exporting surplus electricity to Europe by 2030. Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov noted that if the joint project with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to lay a cable under the Caspian Sea is successful, Uzbekistan will be able to transmit excess energy to Europe. Mirzamahmudov said that renewable energy capacity would exceed 4 GW by the end of this year and is expected to reach over 20 GW by 2030, with 2-5 GW available for export. In the summer, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan agreed on a draft strategic partnership to develop and transmit green energy. The agreement includes terms for a preliminary feasibility study, which is being developed by the Italian company CESI. “We selected CESI to handle the project’s feasibility study,” Mamadaminov stated. “The study will take about a year and a half to complete, with an expected finish date by the end of 2025. Following this, construction will begin based on the study. The project requires around 2,500 km of HVDC (high-voltage direct current) cable, which will be costly—exceeding $2 billion.” Mamadaminov added that the electricity price will be market-driven but is expected to start at around 4-5 cents per kilowatt.

Renewable Energy Generation Carbon Emission International investment Energy Coal ADB

ADB to Help Kazakhstan Move Away from Coal Power Generation

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed a memorandum of understanding, moving closer to the possible early retirement of a coal plant in Kazakhstan under the bank’s Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) program. Under the memorandum, the ministry and ADB will work toward a pilot transaction that will demonstrate a pathway to significantly reduce Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions by decommissioning pilot coal plants for renewables or other low-c or repurposing carbon energy technologies. A feasibility study will determine which of the country’s coal-fired power generation, combined heat and power plants and heat-only boilers could be the most viable for early retirement. ADB and Kazakhstan have also agreed to analyze the potential impact of early decommissioning or repurposing of a plant on the country’s power and heat supply, develop the country’s renewable energy generation capacity, and promote regional energy trade. ADB Director General for Central and West Asia Yevgeniy Zhukov commented: “Keeping 1.5 degrees alive means moving away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy as quickly as possible—and ADB’s ETM program aims to do that in a way that considers each country’s energy and socioeconomic development needs. As Asia and the Pacific’s climate bank, we are committed to helping Kazakhstan inclusively decarbonize its economy, and we aim to demonstrate how the clean energy transition can be accelerated in Central Asia.” Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan Almassadam Satkaliyev added, “Kazakhstan will need to develop a new approach in the power, heating, and water sectors as a single technological system, and we rely on ADB’s support and experience. I hope this program will demonstrate new systems' technological shift and reliability through ETM, which can then be replicated in other plants and regions.” Kazakhstan is a major consumer of coal, with 25 billion tons of coal reserves estimated to be the eighth largest worldwide. About 70% of the country’s electricity is produced from coal, while energy-related activity, including heat and electricity production, accounts for more than 80% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions. Kazakhstan’s long-term strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 involves reducing its use of fossil fuels and increasing its renewable power generation capacity.

Energy Renewable energy

COP29: Tajikistan Goes for Green as Pollution, Climate Change Take Toll

Tajikistan’s longtime president has said his country plans to switch entirely to renewable sources of energy by 2032, though a recent World Bank report warns that climate change is already threatening Tajikistan’s energy and water security, which are key to development. At the United Nations climate conference in Azerbaijan, President Emomali Rahmon said on Tuesday that Tajikistan’s goal was to become a “green” country by 2037, a reference to low carbon and resource efficiency goals. “Today, 98% of our electricity is produced by hydropower, and Tajikistan's share in the amount of greenhouse gas emissions is small” compared to many other countries, said Rahmon, who has been in power since 1994. “However, achieving the above goals requires a lot of effort and money from us.” He told delegates at the COP29 meeting in Baku that Tajikistan is cooperating with development partners, “especially global financial institutions.” In a report released last week, the World Bank cautioned that Tajikistan’s growth model has “reached its limits” despite robust economic development and poverty reduction in the last two decades. It said domestic institutions are weak, the private sector is underdeveloped and Tajikistan’s economic aspirations will be on hold unless it implements structural reforms. “Degraded agricultural land, along with risks of increasing water scarcity, raises major risks to the productivity of crop and livestock sectors, critical to the livelihoods of the majority of Tajiks. Air pollution is rife, with Dushanbe’s measure of particulate matter far exceeding regional averages and other cities affected,” it said. The World Bank acknowledged Tajikistan’s plan to improve infrastructure for hydropower development, clean energy, and water storage to address the challenges of climate change. But it said the effects of global warming, including glacier melting and extended droughts, could undermine development goals and drive an increase in poverty. Tajikistan’s big hope is that the Rogun hydropower plant, which has been under construction since 2007 and is partly operating, can play a transformative role in electricity generation in Tajikistan but also as a clean energy exporter to other countries in Central Asia. The project has faced delays, cost overruns and criticism from environmental and rights groups. The World Bank, one of the international backers of the project, said the success of the Rogun plant, which will have a total generation capacity of 3,780 megawatts, will depend on “enhanced governance and transparency, dedicated supervision support, and a sustainable macroeconomic framework.”

Energy Nuclear power Nuclear Referendum

Kazakhstan Referendum Approves First Nuclear Power Plant

More than 71 percent of voters have approved the October 6 referendum for constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). Turnout was over 63 percent, easily surpassing the 50-percent barrier for validation. This result closely tracks the results of a telephone survey conducted by the Democracy Institute on September 30 and released by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies. That survey found 73 percent of those asked to favor construction of a nuclear power plant. It also found that 62 percent of respondents intended to vote, not far from the actual participation rate. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had announced the referendum initiative in a message to the public in September 2023. In that address, he emphasized that Kazakhstan, as the world's largest producer of uranium, should also have its own nuclear-power generation capabilities. Following this announcement, a series of meetings between representatives of various government agencies and the public were organized across all regions of the country. During these meetings, the plans for constructing an NPP were discussed in detail, with an emphasis on the potential benefits of nuclear energy for Kazakhstan’s energy independence. Kazakhstan has held a significant position in the global nuclear-energy market since the late 2000s, accounting for approximately 40 percent of global uranium production. Despite this advantageous position, the country faces severe electricity shortages, which are projected to worsen by 2025, especially in the rapidly growing southern regions. Reliance on aging thermal power plants, many of which are equipped with components that have been in service for over 50 years, has only exacerbated the problem. Frequent energy shortages in multiple regions have left citizens without heat during harsh winter conditions, often with temperatures dropping well below zero. The proposed site for the nuclear power plant is in Ulken, located in the Almaty region. The shortlist of potential builders for the NPP includes companies from China, South Korea, Russia, France, and the United States. The inclusion of companies from multiple countries is aimed at ensuring competitive bidding and securing the best possible technology for the project. Tokayev has indicated a personal preference for an “international consortium made up of global companies equipped with cutting-edge technologies.” Developing an NPP will help the country to achieve energy independence and meet carbon-neutrality goals. Without an NPP, rolling blackouts will be necessary and dependence on electricity imports from Russia will continue. However, the legacy of the Semipalatinsk test site looms large, creating a challenging decision for Kazakh citizens. Kazakhstan's nuclear history spans from Soviet-era testing to present-day energy challenges. The Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, established in 1947, was where the Soviet Union conducted over 468 nuclear tests, leaving long-lasting environmental and health impacts on the local population. The fallout from these tests has burdened the national health-care system for decades, exacerbated by nuclear fallout from Chinese testing at Lop Nor. In response to these consequences, then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev closed the Semipalatinsk site in 1991, and by 1994, Kazakhstan had relinquished its nuclear arsenal and became a non-nuclear state. Nazarbayev’s rise to power...

Energy Environmental Awareness public opinion Nuclear Referendum Energy Security

Referendum for Nuclear Power in Kazakhstan Passes

Kazakhstan's nuclear energy referendum on October 6 passed with a 71.12 % majority, marking a pivotal shift in the country's energy strategy. The nation has faced significant challenges with an aging energy infrastructure and a reliance on Russia to fill the gaps. The decision comes with historical sensitivities as Kazakhstan continues to grapple with the legacy of Soviet-era nuclear tests that caused widespread harm. The referendum offered citizens a direct voice in shaping their energy future, reflecting both the urgency of addressing the country’s current needs and the deep-seated concerns over nuclear safety. On the referendum ballot, Kazakhstanis were asked, “Do you agree to the construction of a nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan?”. The voter turnout was high, according to the Central Referendum Commission, with 7,820,918 Kazakhstan citizens receiving ballots, amounting to a 63.87% voter turnout. The voter turnout for the referendum on the new constitution in Kazakhstan, held on June 5, 2022, was similarly high at 68.44%. As the world's largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan is well-positioned to leverage its rich resources to transition towards more sustainable energy solutions. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has emphasized the critical importance of nuclear energy, not only in meeting the immediate electricity needs amidst frequent power outages but also in aligning with global environmental commitments. At the Convention on Climate Change (COP28) held in Dubai on December 1, 2023, Tokayev made a Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030. The nuclear power plant is expected to reduce Kazakhstan's reliance on fossil fuels, thus decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. Uzbekistan has already begun construction of a nuclear power plant 55km from the Kazakhstan border. Kyrgyzstan may also build a nuclear power plant in the Chui region, which is less than 300km south of the planned Kazakhstani plant in Ulken on Lake Balkash. International observers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) have all affirmed that the recent referendum was conducted in accordance with current legislation, describing it as open, free, and legitimate. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko noted the participation of over 200 foreign journalists during the referendum, underscoring the transparency and openness of the voting process. Radio Free Europe, through its affiliate Azattyk, was critical of the referendum. An incident of ballot stuffing at a Turkestan poll station was reported, as were accessibility issues for the disabled voters in the Uralsk region. One observer witnessed a suspicious busload of voters in Turkestan. RFE correspondents reported difficulty in getting voter turnout results throughout the afternoon at a station in Karganda and Aktobe. With that in mind, the irregularities seem to be few and far between overall: The League of Young Voters, a vigilant group of local observers, identified a total of 20 technical violations across the country’s 10,249 polling stations. The referendum day proceeded without significant issues, shifting attention to Kazakhstan's urgent energy shortfalls. With the nuclear power plant expected to be operational in 2034,...