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statistics Finance Economy World Bank GDP Economic Growth

Decrease Expected in Central Asia’s Economic Growth

According to the World Bank, economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to slow to 3.3% this year, down from 3.5% in 2023. This is much lower than the average growth of 4.1% seen between 2000 and 2019, and is not enough for many of the region's middle-income countries to become high-income. Growth in the region has mainly been driven by an increase in people's spending, rising wages, and government policies, while demand from outside the area, especially from the EU, remains weak. Although the average yearly inflation rate had dropped to 3.6% by August 2024, from 4.6% at the end of last year, it is still higher than the 2.7% average seen in 2018-2019. Prices of goods have grown more slowly in most countries, but prices for services remain high because of rising labor costs. Some central banks have lowered interest rates as inflation has slowed, but are cautious. Government spending has not been reduced in most of the region's countries and indeed, has dramatically increased, especially on public wages, pensions, social benefits, and defense. The economies of Central Asia are expected to grow by 4.3% in 2024; slower than the 5.6% growth seen last year. In Kazakhstan, growth is predicted to slow to 3.4%, down from 5.1% in 2023, mainly because the expansion of the Tengiz oil field is taking longer, and the government is spending less. For other Central Asian countries, growth estimates have been raised by an average of nearly one percentage due to increased consumer spending, more government spending, and ongoing support from money sent home by workers in Russia and trade with Russia. However, despite these improvements, the growth per capita GDP (the average income per person) in Central Asia is only expected to be 2.7% this year, making it the slowest in the region, apart fromTurkey. The Central Asian sub region, with growth expected at 5%, will outpace all other sub regions in 2025. This is driven primarily by renewed strong growth in Kazakhstan amid rising oil production. However, growth in the rest of Central Asia is projected to slow as trading and remittance flows from Russia normalize. The lowest median consumer price growth rate was recorded in the South Caucasus, at 1.5% year-on-year in August 2024. In contrast, Central Asia had the highest median consumer price inflation rate, at 6.1%. This rate reflects 10% inflation in Uzbekistan, driven by removing energy subsidies in May 2024.

migrants rights statistics Migrant Workers Migration Economy

Kyrgyzstan Reports Growing Return Migration

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Labor, Social Security and Migration and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) announced the results of their assessment of the country’s migration trends on October 15. The statistics show that return migration increased from 2020 to April 2024, and the number of migrants returning to Kyrgyzstan is continuing to grow. The number of returning migrants increased by 85% in 2023 compared to the previous year. Kyrgyzstan’s southern Osh and Batken regions and the northern Chui region lead the figures in the number of returning labor migrants. According to the report, the number of Kyrgyz citizens who plan to migrate once again to the country from which they have just returned has decreased by half. In June, the Speaker of the Kyrgyz Parliament, Nurlanbek Shakiyev said that more Kyrgyz people are returning from abroad, and over the past two years, the numbers have reached 241,000. Shakiyev cited the opening of many new industrial enterprises in Kyrgyzstan in recent years as a reason for growing return migration, emphasizing that Kyrgyz citizens can now earn more at home. Over the past 30 years, hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz citizens have left their homeland as labor migrants, mainly for Russia. In the last couple of years, however, there has been a growing trend of return migration largely caused by Russia's deteriorating economic situation, depreciation of the ruble, stricter rules and harsher attitudes toward Central Asian immigrants, and increasing attempts by the Russian authorities to recruit Central Asian immigrants (with or without Russian passports) to join Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. According to a 2022 census by Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee, more than 876,000 Kyrgyz citizens (close to 15% of the country’s population) migrated abroad. The top five destination countries for Kyrgyz migrants were Russia (870,304), Kazakhstan (2,158), Turkey (1,828), Germany (336), and South Korea (240). The IOM report states that 328,458 Kyrgyz nationals have lived abroad since 2020. As of 2023, 79% live in Russia, 4.5% in Kazakhstan, and 4% in Turkey. According to the report, the primary drivers of migration were dissatisfaction with wages in Kyrgyzstan (26%), lack of job opportunities (17%), financial difficulties and debts (16%), and a perceived lack of prosperity in their homeland (10%). According to the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, in 2023, remittances from Kyrgyz labor migrants totaled $2.144 billion, compared to $1.873 billion in 2022.

Economy Food Food Security statistics

Tajikistan’s Acute Hunger Issue

Tajikistan has been recognized as the hungriest country among the former Soviet republics. According to the Global Hunger Index prepared by the International Food Policy Institute, 8.7% of the country's population faces food shortages, and ranked 65th out of 127 countries in the world, is on par with countries such as Nicaragua and Ghana. Lower index scores equal less food problems. Assessments of hunger are based on child mortality, stunting, and wasting and in recent years, Tajikistan has consistently ranked lowest among post-Soviet countries in the Global Hunger Index. Despite attempts to improve the situation, the country remains one of the most vulnerable in the region. Today, 18.4% of children under five are stunted due to malnutrition, 5.1% are wasted, and 3% of children do not survive to the age of five; all indicative of serious food security problems in the country. According to the Global Hunger Index, malnutrition varies widely across the former Soviet Union. The best results are demonstrated by Uzbekistan, which ranks first among countries with minimal hunger issues. In the republic, less than 2.5% of the population faces food shortages. Stunting affects 6.5% of children; wasting ,2.4% of children, and infant mortality does not exceed 3.1%. Uzbekistan was the only Central Asian country to rank highly among the 22 former Soviet republics with the lowest hunger rates, including Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, and Georgia. Belarus and Lithuania consistently demonstrate a high level of food security, making them among the leaders of the former Soviet republics. Armenia and Kazakhstan, in contrast, rank 23rd and 25th, respectively, demonstrating moderate nutritional problems among the population. Moldova, ranked 26th, has a similar situation: malnutrition remains relatively low but requires attention. Kyrgyzstan ranks 36th and Ukraine 46th, indicating average hunger levels. Turkmenistan was ranked 50th. The situation is particularly dire in Africa, which tops the list of countries with the most significant hunger problems. South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia, Yemen, and Chad, recognized as the hungriest countries in the world, experience extremely high rates of child mortality and malnutrition among their populations.

statistics International trade Economic Cooperation Bilateral Trade Export/Import

Kazakhstan-Tajikistan Trade Turnover Rises 6%

According to the State Revenue Committee of Kazakhstan's Ministry of Finance, the trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Tajikistan has reached $780.7 million so far this year, 6% higher than for the same period last year. From January to August 2024, Kazakhstan exported over 1.6 million tons of goods worth $613.2 million to Tajikistan, an increase of 15.5% compared to last year. The main export product was wheat, with 629,100 tons valued at $154.5 million. Tajikistan also produces more sunflower, safflower, and soybean oil – 44,800 tons (+8.2%), pasta – 5,300 tons (+20.7%), and sweet drinks – 12.5 million liters (+5.8 times). The export of aluminum oxide also increased by 40.5% to 105,400 tons; iron and steel rods increased 1.5 times, up to 36,800 tons; plastic windows and frames increased ten times, up to 12,400 tons; and smartphones and media stations increased 1.8 times, up to 148,100 units. However, the supply of liquefied gas decreased by 4% (211,300 tons). At the same time, imports from this country continued to decrease. In January-August, 220,800 tons (-19.4%) of products worth $167.5 million were imported from there. This decrease affected the sales volume of ores and concentrates (lead, copper, zinc) by 12.3%, up to 106,500 tons, and children’s scooters and skateboards by 32.6%, up to 46,00 units. In addition, Kazakhstan has begun to buy fewer fresh fruits and vegetables. For example, the supply of apricots, peaches, and grapes immediately decreased by 2.1 times, to 6,900 tons, and onions by 3.3 times, to 17,600 tons. However, the volume of imported dried fruits increased by 23.3% and amounted to 36,800 tons.

Foreign trade turnover statistics International trade Economic Cooperation Economy Export/Import

Drop in Uzbekistan’s Exports to Central Asia

Local media has reported that from January - August, Uzbekistan's exports to its four neighboring countries decreased, compared to the same period in 2023. According to data from the Statistical Agency data, exports to Kazakhstan dropped from 950 million USD to 872 million USD; to Kyrgyzstan, from 491 million USD to 365 million USD; to Tajikistan, from 389 million USD to 329 million USD, and to Turkmenistan, from 118 million USD to 78 million USD. The share of Central Asian countries in Uzbekistan's total foreign trade turnover (FTT) in the first nine months of 2023 was 11.5%. The total FTT was worth 40 billion 45 million USD, of which 4 billion 574.3 million USD were with Central Asian countries. This year, it has decreased to 10.3%, meaning 4 billion 400.6 million USD of FTT of 42 billion 703.3 million USD are with CA countries. The Ministry of Investments, Industry, and Trade attributed the drop to an increase Uzbekistan's exports to international markets with high purchasing power, especially Europe, Arab countries, Southeast Asia, and the Americas, and explained, " due to diversification, the volume of exports to neighboring countries, which are considered a traditional market, decreased. In particular, the volume of exports to Kazakhstan decreased by 8.3%, to Kyrgyzstan by 25.6%, to Tajikistan by 15.3%, and to Turkmenistan by 36.2%."

Social Human development statistics Education Schools

Kazakhstan Leads Central Asia in Global Knowledge Index

Kazakhstan performed best among Central Asian countries in the 2024 Global Knowledge Index, conducted by the United Nations Development Program in cooperation with the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Knowledge Foundation. The country takes a respectable 74th place out of 133 countries; however, Kazakhstan is 60th out of the 61 countries with very high human development. The index considers seven indicators covering the countries' education, information and communication technology, and economic sectors. Uzbekistan is in 78th place, and the country ranks 14th out of 28 countries with high human development. Kyrgyzstan has a modest knowledge infrastructure. It is 84th in this rating and is a medium indicator of the country's knowledge infrastructure. The country ranks 5th out of 25 countries with medium human development. Tajikistan records the lowest result among the region's countries in the Global Knowledge Index. With 36.1 points, it takes 111th place among the 133 countries. Regarding medium human development, the country shows the same result as Kyrgyzstan.