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Time for the U.S. to Cement a “Nuclear-Weapon-Free” Central Asia

The Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (CANWFZ) Treaty, which came into force in 2009, represented a significant advance in international efforts to limit nuclear proliferation. Initiated by the five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—it aims to enhance regional and global security by guaranteeing that the region remains free of nuclear weapons. In May 2014, all five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council signed a Protocol to the CANWFZ Treaty (the permanent five include China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, who also happen to be five signatories of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, that have nuclear weapons). This Protocol legally binds them not to use or to threaten to use nuclear weapons against any of the CANWFZ signatories – i.e., the above-listed five Central Asian countries. As the 10th anniversary of the signing of the 2104 Protocol approaches, it is unfortunate that the United States is the only signatory that has not yet ratified it. The CANWFZ Treaty continues to enhance regional security in Central Asia amidst current international tensions and remains a pillar of regional security that deters threats and strengthens global norms. As a gesture of support for the region's nuclear-weapon-free status, U.S. Senate’s ratification of the Protocol would ultimately enhance U.S.’ credibility on the international stage, solidify its strategic commitment to Central Asia at a critical time, and demonstrate that it will continue to pursue a more secure and stable world. It would also be a significant nod towards Kazakhstan's leadership in nuclear disarmament and the country's pro-active stance against nuclear proliferation. The significance of Kazakhstan’s enhanced role Although it took three more years to enter into force, the CANWFZ Treaty was signed in 2006 in the Kazakhstani city of Semei (formerly Semipalatinsk), which used to host Soviet nuclear tests and is located less than 1,400 kilometres away from the Chinese test site at Lop Nor. The USSR conducted over 450 nuclear tests, both underground and atmospheric, at Semipalatinsk between 1949 and 1989. These tests were carried out with scant regard for the health and safety of the local population or the environmental ramifications. The area continues to bear the scars of this era, with elevated levels of cancer, birth defects and other radiation-induced illnesses persisting amongst the population. In response to the devastating impact of nuclear testing, a profound anti-nuclear sentiment took root in Kazakhstan. This culminated in the formation of the civil-society 'Nevada–Semipalatinsk' movement, inspired by similar groups seeking to close U.S. nuclear sites in the state of Nevada. This movement was a pioneering effort in the late 1980s that united Kazakhstan's citizens in opposition to nuclear tests. The Nevada–Semipalatinsk movement was amongst the first (if not the very first) major anti-nuclear movements in the USSR, and its momentum helped drive Kazakhstan towards independence. After its independence in 1991, Kazakhstan inherited the world's fourth largest nuclear arsenal and has cooperated with the West to dismantle it while also preventing the Soviet era nuclear material left on its soil...

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How Kazakhs see their personal and national well-being at the end of 2023

In December 2023, I was asked quite frequently whether, in my view, protests like the ones that took place across Kazakhstan in January 2022 were again possible. Based on previous sociological data, I answered that they were most likely not: Throughout 2021 – largely due to the pandemic – social sentiment had worsened, reaching its lowest levels in our 20 years of collecting observations. At that time, almost all indicators of social well-being had declined, including satisfaction with life and the approval of government institutions, while expectations of protests about socio-economic and political issues had increased. Since January 2022, however, many indicators began to improve, and by December 2023, they had “normalized”, roughly reaching 2019 levels. This is clearly seen in the indicator regarding the respondent’s satisfaction with life (see Chart 1 below). Over 2004-2023, this indicator saw three incidences of significant deterioration, namely in 2004, in 2008-2009 when the financial crisis struck, and in 2021-2022. Thus, by end-2023, the dangerous convergence of satisfaction/dissatisfaction indicators seems to have passed as social sentiment stabilized. Chart 1: In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your life? (2004-2023) In December 2023, the country's economic situation was also seen as having improved (see Chart 2 below). Some 24% percent of respondents said that the economy was in good shape (versus 7% in 2021); 57% saw things as average (vs. 41% in 2021), and only 13% called the economic situation “bad” (vs. 30% in 2021). Most respondents, therefore, saw the economy in 2023 in a neutral or positive light. Chart 2: How would you assess the current economic situation in Kazakhstan? However, this does not mean that social sentiment has completely turned around and that it can be ignored. The challenging dynamics of “social optimism”, an important indicator, reflects the population’s subjective near-term outlook. Optimistic responses (i.e., “we will be better off”) rose in 2022 to 49% but decreased to 43% in 2023, representing the same level as during the crisis year of 2021 (see Chart 3 below). Chart 3: Do you think that in a year you (your family) will be better or worse off than now? (2004-2023) What drives this decline in Kazakhs’ social optimism? The answer, I think, is low levels of income against a backdrop of rising prices for food and essential goods and services, as well as higher utility tariffs. According to the survey, 58% of the population only has enough money to buy food and clothing and to pay for utilities, with no money left for savings. Almost another fifth of respondents (18.2%) can be classified as “low-income”, meaning their income is barely enough to live on (see below Chart 4). Chart 4: Assess your income versus consumption (%, December 2023) This is why the majority of the population, having carefully planned their small family budgets, painfully experiences unexpected changes to the status quo. Take health care, for example: Some 52.6% of respondents said that their health insurance payments were already too high and that they have...

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Keeping Central Asia Out of Conflicts: An Interview with Political Analyst Uran Usenov

In recent years the ability of diplomacy to ensure a stable world has been steadily declining, with the outbreak of more wars and international misunderstandings. The latest evidence of this trend is the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the war in Ukraine, as well as rising Iran-U.S. tensions. At the same time, ties between Iran and the countries of Central Asia have started to intensify. We spoke about this with Uran Usenov, a political analyst from Kyrgyzstan with extensive experience in international structures, including at the UN and the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, where he worked between 2014 and 2022. Usenov is currently a Special Issues Consultant at the World Bank. TCA: Recent years have seen an active expansion of relations between the countries of Central Asia and Iran. Is it dangerous or advantageous these days to have a friend who supports Palestine, and even attacks U.S. military targets? UU: Indeed, Iran has recently intensified cooperation with Central Asian countries at a political level and even abolished visa requirements for some Central Asian countries. Such cooperation clearly carries political risks. Iran and the U.S. are basically in a cold war. And of course, any deepening of relations [with one side] will be regarded as taking a side in the conflict. In general, the countries of Central Asia have taken a cautious position in every [current] conflict. Regarding the conflict in Palestine, the Central Asian countries overall do not support Israel's military operation. Iran is a large country in the region and an immediate neighbor of Central Asia – the issue of expanding cooperation is just a matter of time. TCA: Could this draw Central Asia into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially against the backdrop of last year’s call by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Muslim countries to “arm Palestine?” UU: I think this is an unlikely scenario. The countries of Central Asia generally support a multi-vector foreign policy. Despite Iran's regional proximity, it is also important for Central Asian countries to maintain relations with the EU and the U.S., which are among the main contributors to the Central Asian economies. TCA: We remember numerous stories of citizens of Central Asian countries, especially young people, joining ISIS in Syria, so it seems possible that at a certain stage in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Central Asian people may again want to go and fight. How can this be prevented, or is it impossible? UU: Of course, it is impossible to fully prevent citizens of Central Asia from fighting in any of these conflicts, especially the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. But I think this will not be widespread. In the criminal codes of Central Asian countries, there is an article against fighting as a mercenary, with real prison time for taking part in any unauthorized military conflict. Still, we understand that this rule will not stop certain people. At the state level, not enough educational and preventive work is carried out among young people, and this is a failure of state policy. TCA: In the...

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Kazakhstan Shapes an Ambitious Future

As Kazakhstan continues on its path towards economic expansion and modernization, it has set forth a revitalization and growth vision for 2024 and beyond, underpinned by a series of ambitious reforms and strategic investments. A central part to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s vision, which he also detailed in a government meeting on February 7th, is the development of a sustainable and inclusive economy driven by innovation, strategic foreign investment and proactive engagement with the global community. Building on the 2023 growth momentum There are positive indications that Kazakhstan is on the right track, despite challenges posed by ongoing global geopolitical risks and uncertainties. Its strong economic expansion continued in 2023, as gross domestic product (GDP) increased by nearly 5% as of the third quarter. The government is aiming to accelerate the pace of growth further throughout the remainder of the decade. Tokayev said in his February 7th speech that the target was to increase economic output to $450 billion by 2029, stressing that to do this, the country will need 6% annual GDP growth. Attracting investment To achieve this ambitious goal, the country’s leadership is currently implementing a series of reforms, which are designed to attract a substantial influx of foreign investment (of at least $150 billion in total) by adopting environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles, as well as by enhancing the country’s overall investment climate. Examples of these initiatives include “green bonds” introduced in 2017; the sustainable finance initiatives presented since 2021 via the Astana International Financial Center, and the mandatory ESG reporting framework for companies listed on the Astana International Exchange. A pivotal element in Kazakhstan’s comprehensive series of economic reforms and investment strategies is the establishment of the Investment Headquarters, which is charged with the critical mission of enhancing the investment climate within Kazakhstan while ensuring qualitatively the proper execution of investment projects. At the same time, the government is working on a new Tax Code that should comprehensively reset the dynamics between the state and the private sector. The development of this code is guided by the need for a delicate balance between creating an environment conducive to investment, and securing the necessary revenues for the national budget. Local capacity building The strategic plan behind the reforms foresees the introduction and transfer of cutting-edge technologies, the localization of production processes, and the establishment of high value-added clusters. These clusters would be strategically focused on driving the acceleration of the manufacturing sector. Potential sectors to benefit from these clusters include green technology, finance, and agriculture. Furthermore, the legislative and institutional framework will be implemented through the enactment of a fresh law on industrial policy and the establishment of a new Ministry of Industry and Construction. A focus on standards of living These steps represent a commitment to improving the overall well-being of the population in tandem with ensuring economic growth. Tokayev has underscored that the focus of these efforts extends beyond merely achieving macroeconomic expansion and emphasized that economic developments must have a...

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Central Asia’s Mineral Wealth Can Help the West Unlock a Greener Future

Critical minerals are essential components in many of today’s rapidly growing energy technologies. From lithium in electric vehicle batteries, to copper used in wind turbines and electricity networks, these minerals are at the heart of the green transition. The demand for these minerals will increase as clean-energy technologies continue to develop and become even more widely adopted. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant uptick in mineral requirements for clean energy technologies. According to its Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), the world’s total mineral demand could quadruple by 2040. Electric vehicles and battery storage are expected to account for about half of this growth over the next two decades. A few major producers dominate the global market Problematically, the global market for critical minerals is dominated by just a few key players. China controls a significant portion of overall worldwide production, not to mention 85% of the processing capacity needed to refine these minerals for manufacturing purposes. China’s dominance extends to lithium, graphite, rare earth elements and cobalt, which are all essential for clean energy technologies. Russia also holds considerable weight in the resource-extraction sector. For example, it controls 43% of the palladium market and a quarter of vanadium production. These minerals have wide-ranging applications, with palladium used in catalytic converters and vanadium in batteries. The United States is heavily reliant on mineral imports from China. This dependence poses significant economic and security risks as any supply-chain disruption could have far-reaching impacts. As a result, the U.S. has initiated the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP). The PGII is a shared G7 commitment, while the MSP drives co-operation of 13 countries and the European Union (EU). They both aim to catalyse public and private investment in responsible global supply chains of critical minerals. Fortunately, Central Asia is emerging as a key player in the global critical minerals landscape. The region is perhaps best noted for its substantial reserves of uranium, of which it is the world’s largest supplier. Less known is the fact that the region also holds 38.6% of global manganese ore reserves, 30.07% of chromium, 20% of lead, 12.6% of zinc and 8.7% of titanium, as well as significant reserves of other critical materials. Eyes turn to Kazakhstan’s special contribution While all of Central Asia is rich in these minerals, Kazakhstan is increasingly noticed as the stand-out performer. Kazakhstan is perhaps best known as the global leader in uranium production. It has the world’s largest reserves of this metal, and has been the world’s top producer for several years. Uranium is necessary for the global nuclear energy supply chain, and Kazakhstan has implemented advanced recovery techniques, making the extraction process both efficient and environmentally friendly. Kazakhstan also has significant potential in rare earth elements, and is one of the world's largest producers of chromium (used primarily in producing stainless steel and other alloys) with one of the world's largest deposits and significant mining operations in the northwest regions. The country is...

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Mirziyoyev Fortifies China-Uzbekistan Relations for Economic and Green Transformation

Ahead of his trip to Beijing, in his article for the People's Daily, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev poured lavish praise on China. Not only did Mirziyoyev say he admired Chinese President Xi Jinping's global development, security and civilization initiatives as efforts to significantly address global challenges and accelerate the transition to a more sustainable and inclusive future, he also aligned Tashkent's vision of regional and international security with Beijing. Mirziyoyev has paid several visits to China, underscoring Beijing's growing importance in his economic and development agenda. His objective to strengthen "multifaceted" relations with Beijing further expounds the fact that China will be a centerpiece of his foreign and regional policy and ambition for a green transition. During his October's trip to Beijing to attend the third Belt and Road Forum, Mirziyoyev struck a complimentary tone, expressing gratitude to Xi for the invitation, stressed that the number of Chinese companies investing in Uzbekistan had increased fivefold and said that he expected bilateral trade to exceed $10 billion by the end of 2023. Mirziyoyev’s campaign has worked, given that Chinese enterprises are the second-largest investors in the country, China accounts for more than one-fifth of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade (21.3%) and bilateral trade in 2023 has far exceeded expectations, reaching $14 billion. Once Mirziyoyev signaled that China as one of his top foreign policy priorities, it helped Tashkent sign several agreements with Beijing. In his latest visit, Mirziyoyev called for international unity on the "Green Silk Road," which was first proposed by Xi in Uzbekistan back in 2016, and fully supported the green initiative’s potential to shape the agenda for a “common green future.” Construction of a 400-megawatt solar photovoltaic power plant by PowerChina and Mirziyoyev's meetings with Chinese energy companies in October indicated that he was impressed by their ability to deploy modern engineering solutions in electricity transmission networks and to implement solar, wind and hybrid power projects. Just last month, Mirziyoyev praised his strategic partner for completing projects at an “astonishingly” fast pace, and he continues to hail China's progress on large scale joint investments projects which have helped Tashkent make important strides in developing green energy and their endeavor to create 27 gigawatts of renewable energy generation by 2030. While cooperation with the "undisputed global leader" in renewable energy would solidify Tashkent's energy security and environmental sustainability, the first hydrogen plant in the country and region will also save some 33 million cubic meters of gas every year, decarbonize heavy industries, and add a new engine of growth, raising Uzbekistan’s international profile. The two nations are promoting active cooperation on infrastructure, too. The Chinese-built Angren-Pap railway line, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan transport corridor, and the four routes of the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline that pass through Uzbekistan denote a region-wide consensus on developing intra- and inter-regional infrastructure to push trade, enhance connectivity, and bring prosperity. Once finalized, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project will give Central Asia the shortest and most accessible passage to global markets, bringing billions of dollars of investments into...