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Kazakhstan at a Crossroads: Navigating Geopolitical Dynamics in Eurasia

Sharing borders with China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan is the largest landlocked country in the world and the ninth largest overall by land area. Its geography makes this country a pivotal transit hub and it is now in the process of reshaping its strategic role in Eurasia. A recent significant development is the announcement of a new railway to China, which will further enhance Kazakhstan’s position in global trade, including in China’s famous Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Deepening its relationship with China is one way that Kazakhstan seeks to diversify its economic and political ties away from Russia. At the same time, Kazakhstan is also looking to reduce its relative dependency on China and trying to balance its relationships with other major powers. Although some Western states have lately recognised this, and various international financial institutions are also assisting in enhancing Kazakhstan’s connectivity, these actors still need to pay more focused attention to Kazakhstan and work with the country in a more constructive manner. Expanding infrastructure and regional connectivity In the past, Kazakhstan has strengthened its position as a transit corridor through investments of more than $3.5 billion in the Khorgos gateway on the Chinese border (for facilitating Chinese goods being shipped to Central Asia and Europe), and other significant investments in various railways (most recently, the Shalkar–Beyneu and Zhezkazgan–Saksaul lines), as well as in the Kuryk seaport on the Caspian Sea and in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). The TITR is a 6,500-km corridor that links Asia with Europe and passes through various countries including Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. The Kuryk seaport has direct access to railway tracks and is fast becoming an important multi-modal route for cargo transshipment. In May 2023, Kazakhstan and China signed 47 co-operation agreements worth $22 billion. At the time, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev underlined that “the full exploitation of our transport and logistics capacity is of strategic importance”. He named China, Europe, Russia, and Central Asia as targets for logistical expansion. Reviewing bilateral relations with China in October last year, Tokayev proclaimed that his initiatives “confirm Kazakhstan’s readiness to strengthen our ‘all-weather’ relations and multifaceted co-operation”. Kazakhstan’s new railways amid incipient geopolitical shifts Given the above context, the recent announcement of the third railway connection between Kazakhstan and China is an important development that will enhance freight capacity and reduce border congestion. The new 272-kilometre (km) line will run in a south-east direction from Ayagoz in eastern Kazakhstan to Bakhty on the Chinese border before continuing to Chuguchak in Tacheng prefecture. The double-track railway is expected to boost freight capacity between Kazakhstan and China by more than two thirds, raising annual carriage from 28 million to about 48 million tonnes per year after its completion in 2027. The connection is a part of the major investment in a total of 1,300 km of new railway lines that are expected to facilitate exports and contribute to the TITR’s development. In the meantime, Kazakhstan has recently flashed on the geopolitical...

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What the Proposed U.S. Ban on Russian Uranium Imports Could Mean for Kazakhstan

On Monday, 11 December 2023, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a new bill banning imports of Russian uranium. While the bill would need to pass the U.S. Senate and be signed off by President Joe Biden in order to become law, this first step towards legality raises questions about the future of nuclear energy in the U.S., and which country could provide the resources necessary to facilitate it going forwards. This bill represents a significant opportunity for Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer of uranium, which could potentially step into the breach and provide the mineral necessary to meet the U.S.' nuclear energy needs. If successfully made into law, the bill entitled the “Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act” will see a complete ban on unirradiated low-enriched uranium (the type used to make nuclear fuel) that is produced in Russia, and annual caps on the amount of low-enriched uranium that can still be imported from the country until 2027. Waivers have been built into the wording of the legislation to allow the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to work around the ban if no feasible alternative is found to sustain the functioning of a nuclear reactor or nuclear company. However, the bill also guides the DOE to submit a report outlining the alternatives to Russian-produced uranium, which could be utilized over the next five years. One country sure to be on their radar is Kazakhstan. A former powerhouse of the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons testing program, Kazakhstan was left with significant infrastructure for uranium mining after the collapse of the bloc in 1991. Its nuclear production is currently monopolized by one company, Kazatomprom, which has emerged as a global leader in the field. Although the U.S. mines its own uranium, it does not produce enough to meet its domestic demands for nuclear power, which in the year 2022 was over 20,100 metric tonnes in total. That year, the U.S. produced 75 metric tonnes of uranium ore from its own mines. By comparison, Kazakhstan produced 21,227 metric tonnes in the same time period. Mukhtar Dzhakishev, the former head of Kazatomprom, has spoken about the necessity of increasing the volume of production in Kazakhstan if it were to be a viable candidate for replacing Russia’s supply to the U.S. Greater resources would need to be directed towards mining if the country were to increase its annual uranium yield to make up for the lost volume of Russian uranium. If the U.S. were to seek a trade agreement with Kazakhstan to bolster its nuclear power supplies, it would indicate an alignment with the European Union, which recently expressed a desire to conduct increased trade with countries in Central Asia. Given that the largest exports from Central Asian countries to Europe are of natural resources such as oil, gas and metals, it is safe to assume that energy will be one of the key goals in any trade deals the EU tries to negotiate. These announcements have arisen in the wake of Russia’s war in...

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Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy: A New Year’s Outlook Under President Tokayev

When Kassym-Jomart Tokayev became the President of Kazakhstan in 2019, he brought to the role a wealth of experience from his long diplomatic career. Amongst many responsibilities, this experience included high-level government positions such as the post of deputy foreign minister and prime minister. Navigating geopolitical challenges since 2019 Tokayev has had a high global profile, including serving as director-general of the United Nations Office in Geneva. It was therefore expected that his internationally recognised acumen would play a foundational role in defining Kazakhstan's path through the complex, and sometimes chaotically evolving, geopolitics in Central Asia and beyond. Tokayev became president at a time when Kazakhstan faced both internal and external challenges. Domestic political and administrative reforms could not wait. The country’s strategically important natural resources, such as uranium and oil, as well as its keystone geographic position at the heart of Central Asia with a long border on the Caspian Sea attracted the attention of the international community. Situated between Russia and China, Kazakhstan required a balanced and nuanced foreign policy to respond to growing interest from the European Union (EU) and the United States. Since assuming the presidency in 2019, Tokayev has enhanced the country's geo-economic context as a shaper of transit corridors. Most notable of these is the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR), which puts Kazakhstan at the centre of pivotal geopolitical dynamics as a bridge between Europe and Asia. Strengthening bilateral and multilateral partnerships The EU, recognising Kazakhstan’s importance, has deepened its engagement with the country through an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement that entered into force in 2020. Deeper ties between Astana and Brussels, and the EU's interest in Kazakhstan, go far beyond hydrocarbon energy resources to embrace cooperation in green technologies, digital transformation and sustainable development. At the same time, Tokayev's tenure has seen Kazakhstan navigate its relationships with international superpowers amidst significant "black-swan" events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the worsening of Russia's conflict with Ukraine. His administration has skilfully maintained good ties with Russia while also adhering to international sanctions. Such an approach showcases Kazakhstan's commitment to global norms, multilateralism and international cooperation, combined with its commitment to an independent foreign policy based on national interests. Under President Tokayev's leadership, Kazakhstan has enhanced its diplomatic engagement by emphasising its strategic role in both regional and global geopolitics. His tenure has been marked by a continuing series of high-profile meetings and participation in key summits. Kazakhstan has also made crucial contributions to regional organisations, such as the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The country's involvement in these organisations underlines its commitment to regional cooperation and integration. Particularly in the OTS, Kazakhstan has emerged as a leader, facilitating discussions and promoting initiatives that align with its broader foreign policy goals. Top-level international meetings (with figures such as U.S. President Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese Communist Party Chief Xi Jinping, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and French President Emmanuel Macron) underscore Kazakhstan's central strategic importance in global...

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Islamic Extremism in Central Asia: A Threat to Liberal Progress

Afghanistan earned its reputation as the “graveyard of empires” due to the significant toll exacted on foreign powers in their efforts to achieve military success in the country. This challenge was evident in the experiences of the British Empire, the Soviet Union, and, most recently, the United States. The persistent and decentralized nature of the country's tribal insurgency made achieving a definitive victory a formidable task. Furthermore, the adherence of groups harbored by the Taliban, such as Al Qaeda, to an extremist religious ideology spread terrorism globally, including in the 9/11 attacks as well as other deadly acts of violence in various parts of the world. While the United States arguably played a constructive role in modernizing Afghanistan, the establishment of democracy and Western values in the country proved to be an insurmountable challenge, even with over $100 billion in foreign aid. With heightened tensions between the Islamic and Western populations reignited in the Levant after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, the threat of Afghanistan-based extremists redirecting their focus towards the West has intensified. Often overlooked is the fact that Salafists jihadists and other radical groups also pose a challenge to the emerging democracies in Central Asia as these Muslim-majority secular republics are seen as areas to spread their undemocratic and potentially violent influence. In this context, policies that may even inadvertently help promote illiberal religious movements threaten the region’s secular identity and the security of its peoples. We should assess Central Asia’s unique position on religious freedoms but also on jihadist threats For the large part, Western countries come from a privileged position of being able to resist the widespread influence from Islamic extremist movements at home thanks mainly to generations of democratic institution building as well as decent geographic distance to areas that would fall under pan-jihadist aspirations. Consider that there is no apparent threat of jihadists entirely displacing Western democratic institutions or imposing a pan-Islamist state encompassing parts of Western nations; most Western lands do not fall on areas some of these groups want to conquer to create an Islamic Caliphate. On the other hand, many other places, including Central Asia, still risk misconstruing the line between defending individual freedoms and combatting religious extremism. Here, the coexistence of extremist Islamic ideologies and democracy remains somewhat precarious. Islamic radicalism continues to pose a serious challenge to the emerging democracies of the region, where the secular republics are trying to keep a lid on certain hostile ideologies. Militant groups spilling over from Afghanistan and infiltrating post-Soviet countries want to spread jihad to the region and create an Islamic Khaganate stretching from Egypt to China. Pan-Islamist Salafists, such as Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Al Qaeda, have a clear goal to overthrow Central Asia’s secular regimes. Moreover, the determination of Salafists jihadists and other groups to spread their illiberal and violent struggle to Central Asia (including from neighboring Afghanistan) has become apparent through their growing presence in the region’s schools and other spheres of public...

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Central Asia’s Growing Economic and Strategic Importance Comes to Fore

The Central Asian region has experienced a tremendous economic transformation since the beginning of the century. Its aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) now totals $397 billion, growing 8.6-fold since the year 2000. Its share in global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) has also increased 1.8 times. The GDP per capita has tripled as the labor pool has grown to almost 80 million, representing a 1.4-fold increase since 2000. The region’s strategic importance, particularly thanks to its geographic position bridging major economies of Europe and Asia, makes it a key player in geopolitical dynamics. Central Asia’s dependence on commodity exports and remittances has so far limited its integration into global value-chains. The Central Asia Regional Economic Co-operation (CAREC) Program, established by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), plays an important role in fostering regional development and co-operation. CAREC includes the five Central Asia countries (namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) plus Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Mongolia and Pakistan. CAREC also partners with five multilateral international institutions in addition to the ADB (which serves as its Secretariat). These are the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the World Bank (a.k.a. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development or IBRD). The Program has constructively helped the countries of Central Asia to address challenges in trade governance. Nevertheless, inefficiencies in cross-border transport and customs procedures continue to hinder their commercial exchanges with one another as well as with external partners. CAREC’s current policy-implementation priorities are integration of regional trade, digitization, climate change, regional co-operation, development of financial technologies and financing in the water sector. There is still significant potential for further development given that the region’s trade within itself has been growing faster than its foreign trade. Enhancing Central Asia’s role in the global economy will require the implementation of co-operative initiatives already identified, especially in infrastructure. Such construction of new physical plants, as well as the renovation and building-out of those that already exist, is crucial for enhancing economic growth and sustainability. This strategy will leverage the region’s strengths such as its strategic location and resource endowments. In 2023, Central Asia’s economic growth is projected to remain relatively steady at 3.9 percent, but this may still be affected by the global challenges of weak external demand, rising inflation and supply-chain disruptions. These global economic conditions, along with the uncertainties that they engender, reflect continuing burdens of the ongoing post-COVID recovery as well as the effects of the war in Ukraine, which significantly impacts the region. In addition to the ADB, the IBRD also focuses on various development initiatives in Central Asia that aim to support regional infrastructure development and the strengthening of cross-border co-operation. These are implemented through relatively low-profile initiatives such as the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) to enhance energy and water security and the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) to improve weather, climate and hydrological services. The IBRD thus aims to increase...

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Turkmenistan-Iraq Natural Gas Deal: A Complex Balancing Act

The recent natural gas deal between Turkmenistan and Iraq has sparked both excitement and concern in the energy world. On November 8, representatives from the State Concern Türkmengaz met with a delegation from Iraq, led by the Minister of Electricity Ziad Ali Fadel, to discuss the export of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Iraq. As with any major energy agreement, this deal carries significant implications for both countries and the region as a whole. This opinion piece explores the positive aspects, potential challenges, and wider implications of the Turkmenistan-Iraq natural gas deal. The Turkmenistan-Iraq natural gas deal presents several positive aspects for both countries. Economically, the agreement opens up new opportunities for trade and investment, providing a boost to the economies of both nations. Additionally, it strengthens diplomatic relations between Turkmenistan and Iraq, fostering closer ties and collaboration in other areas. Moreover, the deal has the potential to enhance energy security in Iraq, diversifying its energy sources and reducing dependence on a single supplier. For Turkmenistan, this agreement represents an opportunity to tap into new markets and expand its natural gas exports. While the deal offers numerous benefits, it also comes with potential challenges and drawbacks. From Iraq's perspective, one concern is the possibility that it becomes overly dependent on Turkmenistan for its energy needs. This could create vulnerabilities and limit Iraq's flexibility in the energy market. Disputes over pricing and payment terms may also arise as aligning the expectations of both parties can be a complex process. Additionally, the agreement may face infrastructure and logistical challenges, such as ensuring efficient transportation and distribution of the natural gas. The influence of regional politics on the deal is another factor to consider, as geopolitical dynamics may impact its implementation. The Turkmenistan-Iraq natural gas agreement has the potential to significantly impact the regional energy market. It may alter the dynamics of gas supply and demand in the region, affecting other players and stakeholders. The agreement could prompt neighboring countries to evaluate their own energy strategies and explore new partnerships. Additionally, the deal could contribute to greater energy cooperation and integration in the region, paving the way for future collaborations and joint projects. As we consider the implications of this gas deal, it is crucial to examine its environmental impact and public opinion. The environmental consequences of increased natural gas extraction and consumption should be carefully assessed to ensure sustainable practices. Additionally, public opinion in both countries will play a significant role in shaping the perceptions and outcomes of the deal. Public engagement and transparency are vital to ensure that the interests and concerns of the citizens are taken into account. The Turkmenistan-Iraq natural gas deal represents a complex balancing act. It ultimately offers economic benefits, strengthens diplomatic relations, and enhances energy security while also raising concerns about energy dependency, pricing disputes, and logistical hurdles. The agreement will have implications for the regional energy market, influencing the strategies of neighboring countries and reshaping energy dynamics. As the process unfolds, it is crucial to...