Kazakhstan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Official Visit

Tokayev in Berlin: Ukraine, Putin, and Germany’s Growing Economic Interest in Kazakhstan

The war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s relations with Russia, energy, and Germany’s growing interest in Central Asia’s raw materials were all on the agenda during Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Berlin on September 29. The Kazakh president again called for a freeze on hostilities in Ukraine before moving toward diplomacy, while emphasizing Kazakhstan’s close ties with Russia. Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Moscow had so far shown no willingness to engage in substantive peace talks. The two sides also discussed increasing supplies of Kazakh oil, critical minerals, German investment, and transport routes between Asia and Europe. After the meeting, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the two leaders had discussed Russia and its war against Ukraine “very intensively.” Berlin’s position is that Moscow must end the war and enter serious negotiations involving Ukraine and European states. “The aim of such peace negotiations must be a sovereign Ukraine in a secure Europe,” Merz said. Until Russia is ready for such a peace, he added, Germany will continue to support Kyiv. Reiterating his position, Tokayev advocated a different sequence. He said he did not consider a rapid end to the war realistic under current conditions and called for first freezing hostilities in Ukraine and then moving toward diplomacy and negotiations. The Kazakh president also reaffirmed his commitment to the UN Charter and respect for the territorial integrity of states, while stressing his respect for the Ukrainian people, their culture, history, traditions, and language. A similar position was set out in a joint declaration by Tokayev and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The two expressed support for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in Ukraine in accordance with the UN Charter and underscored their respect for the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of states. At the press conference with Merz, however, Tokayev also emphasized Kazakhstan’s close relationship with Moscow. He said he had “very good contact” with Putin, and described the Russian president as an “outstanding political figure.” Tokayev also explained Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia in geographical and demographic terms. The two countries share a border of more than 7,500 kilometers, and Kazakhstan has a large ethnic Russian population. “Whatever may happen on the territory of Ukraine, we never forget that both Russia and Ukraine are our good friends,” Tokayev said. Merz thanked Kazakhstan for helping prevent the circumvention of sanctions against Russia, describing this as “work for peace.” Kazakhstan has not joined Western sanctions against Russia, but has repeatedly said it will not allow its territory to be used to circumvent them. For the European Union, controls on re-exports through third countries have taken on greater importance since 2022, as Russia’s trade with several Central Asian states increased sharply. Oil featured prominently in the economic discussions. Merz said Germany was interested in receiving more crude from Kazakhstan to replace Russian oil. “We are looking for ways to diversify our supply relationships, and Kazakhstan is an important building block in this region of the world,” the chancellor said. Kazakhstan began supplying crude to the PCK refinery in Schwedt in...

Central Asia-U.S. Relations

Opinion: Central Asia Is More Than Minerals

For years, Central Asia was one of those regions that Washington periodically rediscovered and then forgot. Officials visited and announced new initiatives, but the relationship hardly changed. That is no longer the case. Many pundits see the current surge of American interest in Central Asia through the lens of transactional foreign policy: nowadays the focus has been on critical minerals, supply-chain security, and competition with China. Valid so far as it goes, this approach misses the larger story. Central Asia is not suddenly important because of its minerals or because Washington has decided that it is. Increasingly, Washington must pay attention to Central Asia because the region itself is changing, and in largely positive directions. Over three decades, American investors largely dismissed the region as too poorly governed and too distant. Now the region itself is working to change the conditions that made it unattractive. The transformation is far from complete, but it is real. When the Central Asian states emerged from the Soviet Union in 1991, they faced grave disadvantages. State enterprises dominated their economies, and they fell short of Western investors’ expectations in both the rule of law and transparency. While such problems have not disappeared, they are everywhere being worked on. Uzbekistan provides the clearest example. Since 2017, Tashkent has undertaken reforms to liberalize its economy and improve the environment for private investment. The World Bank now describes Uzbekistan as one of the world's top reformers. Kazakhstan has also built more sophisticated financial and regulatory institutions. Its goal is to position itself as a regional hub for logistics, energy, and finance. The World Bank's new 2026–31 country strategy emphasizes a "business-ready Kazakhstan," with greater private-sector participation, improved infrastructure, and better natural-resource management. The pace of change in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan has been slower, for understandable reasons. Kyrgyzstan’s early political reforms long left the government rudderless, Tajikistan endured a five-year civil war, and Turkmenistan was stymied by Russia’s total control of its gas industry. Now these countries, too, are belatedly advancing. Central Asia has not become Switzerland. Corruption, political interference, and governance problems still afflict the countries’ economies, and the OECD continues to identify these as important obstacles to investment. The question is not whether Central Asia has solved these problems but whether it has changed enough to become investable. The answer increasingly is yes, it has. Moscow's offensive in Ukraine accelerated changes Washington had sought for decades. Secondary sanctions compelled Central Asians to develop new commercial avenues not subject to international restrictions. While Central Asian governments maintain important relations with Russia, they all seek pragmatic alternatives that reduce their former reliance on Moscow. The countries are expanding regional cooperation while reaching across the Caspian to the South Caucasus and beyond. The resulting Middle Corridor promises direct access to global markets. The measure of its success will be whether Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan gain trans-Caspian pipelines to transport their resources directly to Europe. In short, Central Asia is doing what Washington has long wanted it to do: become more...

Military Procurement

Why Central Asia Is Diversifying Its Arms Suppliers

India could become another supplier of major weapons to Central Asia. Indian Masterminds reported in July that Samir V. Kamat, former chairman of India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), said India had exported Akash surface-to-air missile systems to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The reported deliveries remain unconfirmed by the recipient governments. Publicly available accounts give no contract values, quantities, or delivery schedules. DRDO says an initial Akash battery has been flagged off for export to friendly foreign countries, without naming the recipients. Akash is a mobile medium-range surface-to-air missile system designed to counter aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones. If the reported deliveries are confirmed, they would mark the first publicly known Akash exports to Central Asia following India’s deal with Armenia. The region’s armed forces still rely heavily on Soviet- and Russian-designed equipment, but governments are increasingly buying newer systems from other suppliers. Russia retains a strong position where countries need to maintain Soviet- and Russian-designed equipment already in service. Other suppliers are winning orders for drones and aircraft, extending their role in the region’s defense procurement. The figures illustrate the persistence of Russian influence. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia accounted for 83% of Kazakhstan’s imports of major arms in 2021–25. These figures measure transfers of major weapons, rather than the full range of military supplies and support. Russia’s exports of major arms, however, fell by 64% in 2021–25 compared with the previous five-year period. Nearly three-quarters of its exports went to India, China, and Belarus. SIPRI attributes much of the fall to reduced deliveries to Algeria, China, and Egypt. The most visible shift has occurred in Uzbekistan. In late August, official footage showed Chinese-built J-10CE fighter jets carrying Uzbek markings. At least six aircraft could be seen. For three decades, Soviet-designed MiG-29s and Su-27s formed the backbone of Uzbekistan’s fighter fleet. Operating the J-10CE requires different training and maintenance arrangements, alongside compatible weapons and ground equipment. The transition moves a key component of the Uzbek Air Force outside its traditional supply chain. On September 25, Brazil’s Embraer delivered the first C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft to the Uzbek Air Force. The handover ceremony took place at the company’s facility in Gavião Peixoto, making Uzbekistan the first C-390 operator in Central Asia. The late-2024 contract includes training to operate the aircraft and covers its upkeep with technical support and spare parts. The aircraft can carry payloads of up to 26 metric tons and can be configured for troop and cargo transport, aerial refueling, medical evacuation, and search-and-rescue missions. Kazakhstan’s military has put Turkish Aerospace Industries’ ANKA drone into service after military trials. In its review of 2024, Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry reported discussions with Baykar, another Turkish drone maker, on a roadmap for local production of tactical drones and loitering munitions. The latter can remain airborne while searching for a target before striking it. The same review said the Turkish side had offered to provide Bayraktar Kalkan and Bayraktar Mini reconnaissance drones, along with the...

Abraham Accords

Kazakhstan Takes Part in Abraham Accords Meeting as Trump-Promised Signing Awaits

Kazakhstan took part for the first time in an official meeting of Abraham Accords countries on September 24 in New York, as Washington works to revive and expand the framework after nearly three years of disruption following the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel. The meeting brought together officials from the United States, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. It was the first official gathering of the group since October 2023 and was hosted by the N7 Foundation during the UN General Assembly. U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker led the American delegation. Kazakhstan is the first Central Asian and first non-Arab Muslim-majority country to join the Abraham Accords, extending a framework originally built around normalization between Israel and Arab states into Central Asia. Erzhan Kazykhan, Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan for Negotiations with the United States, told CBS News that “We see the Accords as a platform to reinforce political dialogue across the Middle East and neighboring regions,” adding that Kazakhstan sees opportunities to expand trade and investment, strengthen connectivity, promote technological cooperation and create tangible economic opportunities. Kazakhstan and Israel already have longstanding relations. The two countries established diplomatic relations on April 10, 1992 and have maintained embassies and bilateral cooperation for more than three decades. Economic cooperation has been part of the framework from the beginning. The original Israel-UAE Abraham Accords agreement identified energy, agriculture and food security, water, technology and investment among the areas for cooperation. N7 founder Jeffrey Talpins said the next stage should focus on strengthening existing relationships and finding practical areas where participating countries can work together. He said the Accords show what countries can achieve through shared interests and a common vision for a more integrated and prosperous region. During bilateral talks with Israel earlier this year, Kazakhstan and Israel discussed possible joint projects in high-tech agriculture, water resource management and digital technologies. Kazakhstan is also important to energy and critical-mineral supply chains. It is the world’s largest uranium producer and an increasingly important U.S. partner on critical minerals and secure supply chains. Within Central Asia, Kazakhstan accounts for 56.4% of the region’s combined GDP and 66.4% of its inward foreign direct investment stock. Kazakhstan is also a transport and logistics link between Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Europe, giving connectivity another practical role in its participation in the Accords. Signing Ceremony Still Pending Kazakhstan announced its accession after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in November 2025. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry subsequently announced the country’s accession, describing the decision as consistent with its balanced and peaceful foreign policy and reiterating support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Trump highlighted Kazakhstan’s entry at a dinner with the five Central Asian presidents on November 6. He said Kazakhstan had “officially joined the Abraham Accords” and described it as “a tremendous country with a tremendous leader”. Trump also said a formal ceremony would follow. “We will soon announce...

C5+1

How Kazakhstan Initiated C5+1

When U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Samarkand in mid-October, he is expected to meet the foreign ministers of all five Central Asian states under a diplomatic format known as C5+1. He will also be accompanied by representatives of more than 100 American companies, underscoring how far the platform has developed since its creation in 2015. C5+1 — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, plus the United States — has become Washington’s principal diplomatic mechanism for engaging Central Asia as a region. It has expanded from meetings of foreign ministers to presidential summits and cooperation on trade, security, connectivity, energy and critical minerals. Less widely known is the role Kazakhstan played in getting it started. S. Frederick Starr, founding chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and a longtime scholar of the region, has argued for years that the proposal that developed into C5+1 came from Kazakhstan rather than from inside the U.S. government. In a detailed account published on September 24, titled How C5+1 Came to Be, Starr identifies Kairat Umarov, then Kazakhstan’s ambassador in Washington, as the diplomat who set the process in motion. Starr writes that shortly after Umarov arrived in Washington, the two discussed the absence of a mechanism through which the United States could deal with Central Asia collectively rather than through five separate bilateral relationships. In 2013, after consulting Astana, Umarov approached Nisha Biswal with the idea of creating a regular consultative mechanism between Washington and the governments of Central Asia. According to Starr, Biswal supported the proposal and subsequently took it to Secretary of State John Kerry, who approved moving ahead with the concept. Afghanistan was initially considered for inclusion, which would have produced a C6+1 format. It was ultimately left outside the mechanism, resulting in the C5+1 grouping that exists today. In September 2014, three Kazakh and three American authors, including Starr, published Looking Forward: Kazakhstan and the United States. The study was prepared with support that included Kazakhstan’s embassy in Washington and called specifically for establishment of a “Central Asia Six Plus One” mechanism. The report argued that the United States lacked a regular platform for engaging Central Asia on a regional basis and proposed a U.S.-Central Asia/Afghanistan partnership. By then, the concept had moved beyond an informal diplomatic conversation. A jointly produced Kazakh-American policy paper was explicitly calling for Washington to establish essentially the same regional mechanism that emerged the following year. Starr says the proposal subsequently received support from Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Uzbek President Islam Karimov. Karimov wanted the Central Asian meeting held in Samarkand, an arrangement to which Astana and Washington agreed. The five Central Asian foreign ministers and Kerry met in New York on September 26, 2015. They gathered again in Samarkand on November 1, where Kerry described the meeting as the first time the six countries had met as a group in that format. The resulting joint declaration committed them to regular meetings under the name C5+1. [caption id="attachment_57100" align="alignnone" width="1828"] Source: S....

Kazakhstan-China Economic Cooperation

Kazakhstan China Joint Investment Fund to Finance New Projects

Kazakhstan and China are moving to establish a specialized investment fund to finance new projects in Kazakhstan. An agreement on the basic terms of the fund was signed by national investment promotion company Kazakh Invest and Silk Road Finance Corporation on September 25 at the Kazakhstan-China Investment Forum in Almaty. The fund is expected to operate through the Astana International Financial Centre. The forum brought together more than 600 representatives of businesses, government agencies, and development institutions. It began with a minute of silence in memory of 14 Kazakh servicemen who were killed the previous day during military exercises on the Caspian Sea. China is Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner. Chinese customs data cited by Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry put bilateral trade at $48.7 billion in 2025, although Kazakhstan’s own customs data recorded $34.1 billion. Kazakh Invest said Chinese direct investment in Kazakhstan reached a record $2.8 billion last year. The two countries have set a longer-term target of increasing bilateral trade to $100 billion. Government figures released for the forum put Kazakhstan’s industrial cooperation portfolio with China at 260 major projects worth more than $62 billion. Transport projects include the Mointy-Kyzylzhar and Bakhty-Ayagoz railway lines, which are nearing completion. Kazakhstan is also working with Minmetals Logistics on a logistics corridor incorporating autonomous transportation technologies and digital systems. Other projects presented around the forum include plans by China’s UBTECH to build its first humanoid robot manufacturing plant outside China in Almaty, and plans to localize the production of oncology drugs with BeOne and INKAR. Transport and logistics projects include the development of Kuryk Port and a smart logistics park in the Khorgos-Eastern Gate Special Economic Zone. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan’s technology cooperation with Beijing is expanding alongside its participation in U.S.-backed initiatives involving AI and technology supply chains. Forum organizers said beforehand that around 45 commercial documents were expected to be exchanged. Ten agreements highlighted at the event covered projects including an electrolytic aluminum plant and associated wind power facility in Abai Region, wind farms with a combined capacity of 450 MW in Akmola Region, automobile manufacturing, urea fertilizer production, and preparations for a dim sum bond issue by the Almaty city administration on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.