Kazakhstan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Migrants in Russia

They Went to Russia for Work and Ended Up at War: How Central Asians Enter the Russian Military

Twenty-year-old Ainabek Keldibek went to Russia expecting to work as a security guard. Relatives of other young Kazakh men say they had taken jobs at a sausage factory and a poultry farm. But according to reports aired in early October on Kazakhstan’s KTK television channel, the men later ended up in or near the combat zone in Ukraine. Some appeared in videos wearing Russian military uniforms and asked Kazakhstan to help bring them home. On October 7, relatives of Kazakh citizens who had reportedly ended up in Russia’s military visited the Foreign Ministry in Astana to seek help bringing them home. Lawyer Meirman Shekeyev, who accompanied the families, said his list had grown from eight to 21 people as more relatives contacted him. The same day, ministry spokesperson Zhanbolat Ussenov said officials were checking appeals and would send Russia a list of citizens after verification. Negotiations over their return were underway, he said. Exactly how the men ended up in the Russian military remains unclear. One family said their relative had already been wounded, while KTK reported that the circumstances surrounding the signing of the military contracts have not been independently established. For now, much of what is known comes from the men themselves and their relatives. Their stories raise a broader question that neither Moscow nor the capitals of Central Asia have fully answered: how many people from the region have ended up in the Russian military, and under what circumstances did they get there? Nearly 13,000, According to a Ukrainian Database Russia does not publish comprehensive statistics on foreign contract soldiers. Central Asian governments have only fragmented data from criminal cases, consular appeals, and reports from relatives. The most detailed country-by-country breakdown comes from the Ukrainian government project I Want to Live. By May 2026, the project said it had identified 12,919 citizens of the five Central Asian states who had signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense: 4,955 citizens of Uzbekistan, 3,489 of Tajikistan, 2,420 of Kazakhstan, 1,474 of Kyrgyzstan, and 581 of Turkmenistan. These figures cannot be regarded as complete or independently verified. I Want to Live operates within Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, and Ukraine is a party to the war. In addition, 12,919 is a cumulative figure, not the number of Central Asians currently at the front. Some may have been killed or captured, completed their service, returned home, or obtained Russian citizenship. Another major estimate comes from the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), Truth Hounds, and the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law. Their report estimates that Russia recruited at least 27,000 foreign nationals from more than 130 countries after February 2022. More than 10,000 of them, according to the study, came from Central Asia. The study is based on open sources, consultations with Ukrainian authorities and experts, and interviews with 16 prisoners of war and former Russian servicemen. There are no comparable publicly available Russian statistics, meaning it is impossible to...

U.S.-Central Asia Engagement

Central Asia Looks to a Possible Trump Visit

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed an interest in visiting Uzbekistan, according to one of his special envoys, raising the possibility that Central Asia could eventually receive its first visit by a sitting American president. Paolo Zampolli, Trump’s Special Envoy for Global Partnerships and long-time Trump associate, made the comment in an interview with Uzbekistan 24 while visiting the country. “I know that he wants to come to Uzbekistan,” Zampolli said, adding that Trump had personally told him he wanted to make the trip. Zampolli said he was encouraging the idea, but gave no timetable, and there has been no announcement that a visit is being scheduled. Trump had already publicly indicated that he may visit Kazakhstan. Asked during the November 2025 C5+1 summit if he might become the first U.S. president to visit the country, Trump replied, “I think it’s very possible that we’ll do that.” The comments come as U.S. engagement with Central Asia is accelerating. Trump hosted all five Central Asian presidents at the White House in November 2025. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has invited him to Kazakhstan, while Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has also invited him to Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reported to be planning a mid-October visit to Samarkand for a C5+1 ministerial, with a delegation expected to include representatives of more than 100 U.S. companies. Sergio Gor, Trump’s Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, has also been involved in Washington’s engagement across the region. In Uzbekistan, he co-chairs the American-Uzbek Business and Investment Council with Saida Mirziyoyeva, head of the presidential administration. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan bring different economic and strategic profiles to Washington’s expanding engagement with Central Asia. Why Kazakhstan Matters Kazakhstan is Central Asia’s largest economy. Its GDP reached about $306 billion in 2025, accounting for more than half of the combined economy of the five Central Asian states. Its share of accumulated foreign investment is even larger, with Kazakhstan holding roughly two-thirds of the region’s inward FDI stock, according to The Times of Central Asia’s Central Asia Balance Sheet. Its strategic importance extends beyond those measures. Kazakhstan produces close to 40% of the world’s uranium and is a major oil producer and exporter, supplying primarily European markets. It also holds substantial critical mineral resources and occupies a central position on the Middle Corridor connecting China and Europe. Recent U.S.-Kazakh commercial agreements include several large transactions. Wabtec has a $4.2 billion locomotive agreement, while Tau-Ken Samruk and Cove Capital have signed transaction documents for at least $1.1 billion in tungsten development. Other agreements cover agricultural machinery, air-traffic management, and additional Boeing aircraft. Kazakhstan also has a distinct diplomatic role in Trump’s engagement with the Muslim world. In November 2025, Kazakhstan joined the Abraham Accords, becoming the first Central Asian and first non-Arab Muslim-majority country to join the framework. Why Uzbekistan Matters With about 39 million people, Uzbekistan is the most populous country in Central Asia. It is also the only state that borders all four of the other...

Trade and Investment

Oman Trade Corridor Could Link Kazakhstan to Indian Ocean

Kazakhstan could gain a new trade route to the Indian Ocean through Oman’s ports, offering an alternative to its traditional northern and Caspian corridors. Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the sultan of Oman, raised the proposal during talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana on October 6. He arrived in Astana on October 5, becoming the first Omani sultan to visit Central Asia “We look forward to developing cooperation in transport and logistics, including the development of a trade corridor through Oman’s ports, as well as strengthening air links between our countries,” the Sultan said. For landlocked Kazakhstan, Omani ports would provide another potential route to the Indian Ocean. Kazakhstan is already developing the Middle Corridor across the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the United Arab Emirates are studying the CASA railway project through Afghanistan to Pakistani ports. No route, transit countries, cargo volumes, costs, or launch timetable have yet been announced for the Omani proposal. The talks came immediately after Kazakhstan signed an agreement aimed at settling a long-running dispute over Dunga, an oil field in western Kazakhstan near the Caspian coast. KazMunayGas controls a 60% interest in the project through Dunga Operating GmbH, while Oman Oil Company Limited and Thailand’s PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (PTTEP) each hold 20%. The dispute concerned costs accumulated under the production-sharing agreement that Kazakhstan considered non-recoverable. On October 5, the Energy Ministry and KazMunayGas signed an agreement to resolve the disputed issues. The agreement will now be sent to the foreign partners, Oman Oil Company Limited and PTTEP, for signature. A new development plan for 2026-2039 provides for production of 67.4 million barrels of oil, as well as capital and operating investment. Omani capital is also present in Kazakhstan’s gold industry. Maaden International Investment, an Omani state-owned investment fund, held 31.7% of Solidcore’s voting rights as of March 31, 2026, making it the company’s largest shareholder. Solidcore operates gold-mining assets in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan and Oman have assembled a portfolio of five major joint projects worth around $3 billion. Two projects totaling approximately $1.1 billion have already been implemented in the energy and railway sectors, while others, including ore-processing projects, are at various stages of development. Oman Investment Authority and Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna are among the main partners. During the visit, Samruk-Kazyna and the Oman Investment Authority exchanged an implementation agreement on establishing a joint investment fund and a term sheet for a Rixos hotel project at Blue City in Oman. KazMunayGas and OQ Exploration and Production also agreed to cooperate on investment opportunities in oil and gas exploration and production. The package of agreements covered areas including transport, agriculture, technology, healthcare, mining, and renewable energy. Despite a joint investment portfolio measured in billions of dollars, merchandise trade between the two countries remains modest. On October 5, the Chamber of International Commerce of Kazakhstan and the Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry signed a memorandum of understanding. Kazakhstan proposed expanding exports of grain, meat, and...

Avaza Summit

Central Asia and Azerbaijan Head to Avaza for First Formal Summit

On Thursday, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov is due to receive Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Sadyr Japarov, Emomali Rahmon, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Ilham Aliyev in a place built to impress visitors. Thursday’s meeting will be the first formal consultative summit since Azerbaijan joined the format as a full participant in November 2025. The six presidents have already met once in the new configuration, at an informal gathering in Cholpon Ata on July 31, where they signed a declaration covering closer cooperation on transport, energy, trade, and security. Construction of Avaza began in late 2007, as Turkmenistan sought to create a national showcase on its Caspian coast. The resort’s hotels and sanatoria sit among parks and entertainment complexes, while eleven road and foot bridges span a seven-kilometer artificial canal. According to official figures, its hotels and recreation facilities can accommodate more than 10,000 vacationers. State institutions send employees there for summer holidays, echoing the Soviet tradition of workplace-organized vacations. These holidays help fill a resort where the seasonal rhythms differ sharply from everyday life in neighboring Turkmenbashi. Officially, Avaza is a district of Turkmenbashi, a city of around 90,000 residents located 580 kilometers west of Ashgabat across the Karakum Desert. The working city's economy is built around oil refining, the port, and transport. The Turkmenbashi International Seaport traces its history to 1896 and was rebuilt on a large scale before reopening in its current form in 2018. The Turkmenbashi refinery complex was founded in 1943 and remains one of the country's main oil-processing centers. The city itself was known as Krasnovodsk until 1993, when it was renamed Turkmenbashi after the title used by then-President Saparmurat Niyazov. The sea that was supposed to be Avaza's main attraction is now retreating from it. In 2024, one visitor told RFE/RL that the shoreline was 25-30 meters farther away than when his family had swum there three years earlier. A correspondent found hotels creating new beach areas farther out, while dredging was underway near the port. By September 2026, shallower water was forcing some ferries to carry lighter loads and pushing ports around the sea into costly dredging and berth work. The effects are already visible along the coast where the leaders will meet. [caption id="attachment_57713" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The Avaza resort on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast, where the five Central Asian presidents and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev are due to meet on October 8.[/caption] Turkmenistan is also hosting Caspian-focused meetings around the leaders' gathering, while the October 8 agenda includes climate, water, trade, energy, transport, and regional security. At the November 2025 summit in Tashkent, the five Central Asian presidents unanimously approved Azerbaijan’s admission as a full participant, extending the grouping across the Caspian into the South Caucasus. Aliyev has been careful to mark the change. At the informal meeting in Cholpon Ata on July 31, he said: "I previously participated as a guest of honor, but today I am taking part as a full member of the team." The format dates to 2018 and was deliberately light on bureaucracy....

Donald Trump

Tokayev Seeks to Take Trump’s AI ‘Washington Model’ Global

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has embraced the voluntary artificial intelligence accord signed by President Donald Trump and leaders of major U.S. technology companies as a model for wider international adoption. Tokayev has termed this approach the “Washington Model,” arguing that it could eventually form the basis of a treaty under the auspices of the United Nations. Tokayev made the proposal at the third meeting of Kazakhstan’s Artificial Intelligence Development Council on October 2, a presidential body that brings together senior Kazakh officials with international technology and AI experts to help shape the country’s AI strategy. He said the risks associated with advanced AI cross national borders and require coordinated action by governments and businesses. Following expert consideration, Tokayev said the agreement signed in Washington could be considered by interested countries as a model for global adoption. He instructed council members to prepare concrete proposals for a Kazakh international initiative and said Kazakhstan would present its vision on international AI cooperation at the G20 Summit in Miami in December. Tokayev’s intervention went beyond endorsing Trump’s initiative. He proposed turning a U.S. government-industry accord into an international model that could eventually underpin a UN-backed treaty, with Kazakhstan helping advance the process. He also said Kazakhstan was ready to serve as a platform for substantive international dialogue on the safe and responsible development of AI. The accord originated in Washington. On September 29, Trump unveiled the White House Accord on Super Intelligence, signed by leaders of Google, Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI, xAI and Nvidia. The voluntary agreement relies on companies to police advanced AI through robust internal controls, dedicated monitoring, independent external assessments and board-level oversight. Trump described it as “morally binding” and said it would involve substantial self-policing, while the companies committed to meet regularly to develop standards and best practices. The accord also fits Tokayev’s approach to AI regulation at home. At AI & Digital Bridge in Astana on October 1, attended by senior figures from major global technology and investment companies, Tokayev called for a risk-based approach and warned against imposing rules so heavy that promising companies, technologies and capital move elsewhere. Kazakhstan has already adopted its Law on Artificial Intelligence and Digital Code, but Tokayev said requirements should be “strict, but not excessive” where safety, rights and vital interests are involved. Both governments are trying to accelerate AI development while guarding against the most serious risks, and both see the private sector as central to that effort. The harder question is whether the same approach can work across borders. Tokayev has identified cybersecurity, data protection, information integrity, algorithmic transparency and accountability for decisions as among the issues requiring a timely response. Kazakhstan has already taken the question of cross-border cooperation into the UN process. In July, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Zhaslan Madiyev told the inaugural UN Global Dialogue on AI Governance that international cooperation should be built around inclusivity and interoperability. Tokayev’s endorsement of the Washington Model also fits a broader pattern in...

Transporter-18 Mission

Two Central Asian Satellites Reach Orbit on SpaceX Rocket

A single SpaceX rocket carried two Central Asian spacecraft into orbit: Kyrgyzstan’s first national satellite and a spacecraft developed with the participation of students in Kazakhstan. The Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on October 1 as part of the Transporter-18 rideshare mission. The flight carried 130 payloads into low Earth orbit. Kyrgyzstan’s satellite weighs about five kilograms and is designed for Earth observation, with its data intended to help monitor agriculture, water resources, and environmental change. A team of about 10 engineers worked on the spacecraft for roughly two and a half years. Kazakhstan’s NIS PocketQube is a cube measuring just 5 × 5 × 5 centimeters and weighing about 250 grams. The spacecraft was developed at NIS Astana-Nura, part of the Nazarbayev Intellectual Schools (NIS) network. The satellite project began in 2019, and the school established its NIS Space laboratory and introduced a course in space technology electronics the following year. Seventeen students worked on the satellite’s hardware and software and helped prepare it for testing. In December 2022, the spacecraft underwent thermal-vacuum and mechanical testing at Kazakhstan’s National Space Center. Specialists from Kazakhstan Gharysh Sapary, Kazakhstan’s national space company, and Ghalam, a Kazakh-French spacecraft joint venture, also participated in the project. Unlike Kyrgyzstan’s Earth-observation satellite, NIS PocketQube is primarily an educational project. NIS says a ground station will be installed to receive and process telemetry, giving students across Kazakhstan access to the data for research and engineering projects. Kazakhstan already operates communications and Earth-observation satellites. By 2030, the country plans to establish an international Earth-observation constellation of nine satellites: six from Kazakhstan and one each from Mongolia, the Republic of the Congo, and Nigeria.