Kazakhstan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Aral Sea

Aral Sea Restoration Could Prevent 605 Million Tons of CO2 Emissions

The drying of the Aral Sea has created another environmental problem: according to a study, exposed lakebed sediments released about 748 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere between 1960 and 2022. Organic carbon remains stored in the sediments, and restoring part of the water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. This gives efforts to restore the Aral Sea region a new climate dimension. The study, conducted by an international team of researchers led by scientists from Spain’s Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), was published in Science on July 16. The findings add another consideration to restoration efforts already underway across the region, from refilling part of the sea in Kazakhstan to planting saxaul and rehabilitating degraded land in Uzbekistan. The Aral Sea’s Carbon Legacy When the Aral Sea was still a fully-fledged body of water, plants and algae absorbed carbon dioxide, while some organic matter settled on the lakebed. As the water retreated, those sediments were exposed to the air, organic matter began to decompose, and the stored carbon started returning to the atmosphere as CO2. At the same time, winds carry salt and dust from the newly formed Aralkum Desert, spreading the consequences of the sea’s disappearance far beyond its former shoreline. In 2022, researchers conducted an expedition to the dried Aral Sea bed, collecting sediment samples and measuring how much CO2 was being released. Combined with satellite data, this allowed them to estimate carbon losses as the sea retreated. According to the researchers’ calculations, exposed sediments lost about 204 million tons of carbon between 1960 and 2022, equivalent to roughly 748 million tons of CO2. New vegetation growing on the dried lakebed has offset less than 1% of those emissions. A significant amount of organic carbon remains in the sediments. The researchers estimate that restoring water cover could prevent the release of another 605 million tons of CO2. The authors also considered the economics of such an effort. Using 2024 voluntary carbon market prices for land-use and forestry projects as a benchmark, they estimate that the avoided emissions could potentially be worth $3.6 billion to $18 billion in carbon credits. That money could theoretically become one source of funding for ecosystem restoration. Researchers estimate that about $9.7 billion in water-management improvements could increase inflows enough to restore roughly half of the area covered by the Aral Sea in 1960, while potentially generating about 323 million tons of CO2-equivalent carbon credits. Restoring the Entire Aral Sea Is No Longer the Goal Under current conditions, fully restoring the sea is widely considered unrealistic. The central issue is water. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya flow through several Central Asian countries. Significantly increasing the amount of water reaching the Aral Sea would be impossible without basin-wide agreements, irrigation modernization, and reductions in water losses. This is why restoration of the Aral Sea remains a regional issue rather than solely an Uzbek or Kazakh one. Central Asian countries coordinate part of this work...

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Bipartisan U.S. Congressional Visit Highlights Expanding Partnership with Kazakhstan

A bipartisan six-member delegation from the U.S. House of Representatives met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana on August 25, two days after Kazakhstan elected the first members of its new unicameral Kurultai. Tokayev called the timing symbolic and proposed closer dialogue between Congress and the new legislature. The delegation was led by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith and included Greg Murphy, Carol Miller, Ronny Jackson, Wesley Bell, and Ed Case. Smith said President Donald Trump had called him at 2 a.m., several hours before the meeting. Trump sent his regards, expressed appreciation for his relationship with Tokayev, and said he looked forward to the Kazakh president’s visit to Miami for the G20 summit. Smith said one purpose of the visit was to explore opportunities to expand economic ties and pursue a substantive bilateral dialogue. The visit reinforced Congress’s role in a relationship that has recently gained momentum at the presidential level. It also showed the breadth of the emerging agenda, from trade and investment to energy security, strategic supply chains, nonproliferation, and regional stability. A Delegation With Trade and Security Reach The delegation’s committee assignments closely matched that agenda. Smith, Murphy, and Miller serve on the Ways and Means Committee, which oversees trade and tariff legislation. Jackson serves on the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs, Intelligence, and Agriculture committees. Bell serves on the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs, and Oversight and Government Reform committees. Case sits on the Appropriations Committee and its Defense and Homeland Security subcommittees. That mix places delegation members on committees with jurisdiction over many of the issues now shaping the bilateral relationship. Congress can advance cooperation through trade legislation, appropriations, oversight, and support for American companies entering or expanding in Kazakhstan. Smith’s committee has jurisdiction over H.R. 1024, the bipartisan U.S.-Kazakhstan Trade Modernization Act, which would authorize the president to end the application of the Cold War-era Jackson-Vanik restrictions and extend permanent normal trade relations to Kazakhstan. Miller was among the bill’s original co-sponsors, although the issue was not mentioned in the public account of the meeting. Bipartisan congressional engagement could help translate recent presidential momentum into more durable institutional ties. Kazakhstan Has Made the U.S. Relationship a Priority From the Kazakh side, Tokayev has treated closer ties with Washington as a presidential priority. During his November 2025 visit to Washington, the two leaders welcomed commercial agreements worth more than $17 billion. Trump reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the Enhanced Strategic Partnership, while the two presidents identified new areas for cooperation. The August 25 meeting also highlighted Kazakhstan’s support for the Abraham Accords and the Board of Peace, as well as the countries’ longstanding work on nuclear security and nonproliferation. Trade, investment, advanced technology, science, education, and culture were also discussed. Tokayev’s proposal for closer dialogue between Congress and the Kurultai would strengthen the parliamentary channel alongside the relationship’s presidential and executive-level diplomacy. In January, Tokayev appointed veteran diplomat Erzhan Kazykhan as his representative for negotiations with the United States on priority bilateral issues....

Archaeology

Archaeologist Steven Gilbert on Medieval Christianity in Kazakhstan

For almost a decade, archaeologists excavating a medieval Silk Road city in southeastern Kazakhstan have been uncovering evidence of a little-known Christian community that lived there centuries before the Russian conquest. At Ilibalyk, in the Zhetysu region near Kazakhstan’s border with China, they have found a Christian cemetery, dozens of gravestones bearing crosses and epitaphs, a funerary chapel, and burials of women of high social status. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, American archaeologist Steven Gilbert discusses the discoveries at Ilibalyk, what they reveal about Christianity in medieval Central Asia, and what archaeology can add to Kazakhstanis’ understanding of the region’s past. TCA: What inspired you to pursue archaeology, and how did your research journey bring you to Kazakhstan? Gilbert: I lived in Kazakhstan before I became an archaeologist. I moved to Kazakhstan in 1993, shortly after independence. My wife and I originally came as part of a humanitarian organization because Kazakhstan was facing many difficulties at the time. Our organization was involved in food aid projects in the Aral Sea region and various exchange programs. My interest in archaeology began after a schoolteacher discovered a very large Christian gravestone, one meter long, in Usharal, in the Panfilov district of the Zhetysu region, in 2014. I had previously conducted historical research into Christianity in Central Asia and knew that Christians had been present in the region since the fifth century, and possibly as early as the second century. The discovery of this remarkable artifact, now housed at the Center for the Rapprochement of Cultures in Almaty, allowed me to establish connections with archaeologists from Kazakhstan and the United States. Through them, I returned to the U.S. to study archaeology specifically so that I could work at this and other sites. TCA: What makes the ancient city of Ilibalyk historically unique within the Silk Road network? Gilbert: Ilibalyk was located on an ancient trade route just beyond the Dzungarian Gate in this region. It was a stop before Almaliq, the capital of the Chagataids in the late medieval period. This oasis on the edge of the desert was an important place for travelers both before and after the Mongol conquest. For our research, its uniqueness lies primarily in the fact that we now know that a large community of Turkic-speaking Christians lived here for almost two centuries, from the 12th to the 14th century.They lived in the city alongside followers of several religions: Muslims, Buddhists, Manichaeans, and those who followed traditional religious beliefs that today we call Tengrism. This is the first clearly Christian cemetery discovered in Kazakhstan dating from before the arrival of the Russian Empire. Christian communities and cemeteries had previously been found in Kyrgyzstan, but this is the first reliable evidence of such a community on the territory of modern-day Kazakhstan. TCA: Which of the artifacts and discoveries made by your team at Ilibalyk do you consider the most significant? Gilbert: We have discovered more than 50 gravestones, known as kairaks, bearing images of crosses. Six of...

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan’s North Aral Recovery Anchors Broader Environmental Push

After decades in which the Aral Sea became a global symbol of ecological collapse, Kazakhstan has achieved a measurable recovery in its northern basin. Built over two decades, the turnaround is now being linked to expanded restoration plans and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s broader Taza Kazakhstan, or “Clean Kazakhstan,” environmental agenda. According to the government, the North Aral’s volume rose from 18.9 billion cubic meters at the end of 2022 to 23 billion by the end of 2025. In July 2026, TCA reported that the Water Resources Ministry had put the volume at approximately 23.5 billion cubic meters. The recovery reflects work centered on the Kokaral Dam, completed in 2005, and management of the Syr Darya. The first phase raised water levels, reduced salinity, and helped restore fishing. Kazakhstan’s Water Resources Ministry and the World Bank have developed plans for a second phase of the restoration program. The proposed project calls for the reconstruction of the Kokaral Dam and aims to increase the sea’s volume to approximately 34 billion cubic meters and expand its surface area to around 3,900 square kilometers. The recovery described here is confined to the North Aral in Kazakhstan. The South Aral remains severely depleted, while further progress in the north depends on Syr Darya flows and cooperation with upstream states. An August 22 government review places the North Aral alongside waste management, reforestation, and environmental education under Taza Kazakhstan. Launched by Tokayev in April 2024 as a nationwide cleanup campaign, the initiative is increasingly being used as a framework for a broader environmental program. Waste Infrastructure Illegal dumping is the clearest area of reported progress. The number of identified dumping sites fell from approximately 8,600 in 2018 to 2,600 in 2026, according to the government. Satellite monitoring is being combined with public reporting through eGov Mobile and TazaQazBot. Public reports have been processed through the two services since 2024. Local authorities have been given responsibility for cleaning public areas, while penalties for illegal disposal have been strengthened. Because the 2018 baseline predates Taza Kazakhstan, the longer-term decline also reflects measures taken before the initiative. The share of municipal waste sorted or processed increased from 25.8% in 2024 to 30.6% in 2025, according to the government. Kazakhstan still faces a serious infrastructure deficit. At the end of 2024, only 20.4% of the country’s municipal waste landfills had the required documentation, while major sites in Astana and Zhezkazgan were at or beyond capacity. A 2023 plan called for 100 new landfills, but a December 2025 government update said only eight had been commissioned. The August 2026 review provided no newer landfill total, but said upgrades were planned for existing sites and additional waste sector projects were moving into operation. Large waste-processing and utilization facilities are also under development in Astana, Almaty, and the Zhambyl region. TCA has previously reported that headline processing rates do not show how much waste becomes reusable material. Only about 1.1% of municipal waste generated in 2024 was converted into secondary raw materials. The...

Transport Digitalization

Kazakhstan Rolls Out AI Tools Across Its Transport Networks

Kazakhstan is turning to artificial intelligence to help decide where its airlines should fly and which roads need repair, while other systems aim to move freight across its borders faster. The projects are part of a series of government digital systems intended to increase the country’s role as a regional transport hub. Air One of the most prominent projects is Echelon Alpha. The platform analyzes passenger demand and competition between aviation hubs to assess the economics of individual routes. It has already identified around 30 promising routes that could generate additional direct or transit passenger traffic for Kazakhstan. The full list has not been made public, although its developers have cited a potential Hyderabad–Astana–Moscow connection as an example of a route modeled by the system. Kazakhstan’s favorable location between China and Europe does not automatically turn Astana and Almaty into international aviation hubs. They have to compete for transit traffic with airports in Baku and Istanbul, as well as those in the Gulf states. According to Kazakhstan’s Transport Ministry, the model processed data covering around 200 million flights over the past five years, along with approximately 170 airline reports. It also combines geomarketing data with information from open and commercial sources. Its claimed forecasting accuracy is up to 90%. “Echelon Alpha uses artificial intelligence to analyze market dynamics in real time and provide a basis for fast, accurate solutions,” said Echelon Alpha founder Rakhman Asambayev in an interview with Forbes Kazakhstan. The system assesses the commercial viability of new routes and their potential effect on the economy. Its developers estimate that the proposed network could have an annual economic impact of around $153 million, although the figure has not been independently verified. Kazakhstan is also introducing biometric Q-Gate terminals at its airports. They verify passport data against facial biometrics in 15 to 50 seconds, four to five times faster than standard checks, according to government estimates. Road Launched around two months ago, e-Joldar uses AI to track road conditions and repair spending, while also collecting data on the quality of construction materials. More than 25,000 miles of national roads have already been digitized. By the end of the year, monitoring is expected to cover the country’s entire road network of around 115,000 miles. Smart Cargo may have a more immediate effect on international freight operators. The platform combines data from 58 information systems in a single digital portal. Authorities say operators can access cargo information through a QR code. AI checks documentation and identifies the necessary permits, while the platform helps determine routes and tracks shipments. The government says Smart Cargo has increased border-crossing speeds by 30% and cut carrier waiting times by a factor of 10. These figures are based on government estimates. Rail On the rail network, digitalization is being paired with major capacity expansion as Kazakhstan pursues its transit ambitions, including through the Middle Corridor. KinetiX performs contactless diagnostics of rolling stock. Government figures indicate that it has reduced technical inspection times by 30% and manual measurements...

Power Grid

August 14 Blackout: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Continue to Dispute Its Cause

The blame game over Central Asia’s August 14 blackout continues. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov says the large-scale blackout began with the shutdown of two generating units at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek does not dispute that the failure occurred but rejects the claim that it was the direct cause of the subsequent outages across several countries. Akkenzhenov identified the events in Kyrgyzstan as the starting point of the emergency. According to him, the initial disturbance occurred on August 14 at 2:37 p.m. Kazakhstan time, or 3:37 p.m. in Kyrgyzstan, when generating units No. 1 and No. 2 at the Toktogul HPP went offline. The loss of generation altered operating conditions in Central Asia’s interconnected power system and led to a redistribution of power flows in southern Kazakhstan. A government commission in Kazakhstan is expected to make the final determination. Kazakhstan’s grid operator KEGOC had earlier provided a more detailed chronology. At 2:37 p.m., three 500 kV transmission lines tripped, separating southern Kazakhstan and the Central Asian grid from the rest of Kazakhstan’s power system. About 2,810 MW of consumer load was temporarily cut off. KEGOC later said that immediately beforehand, two generating units at the Toktogul HPP, with a combined capacity of about 600 MW, had gone offline. The resulting changes in power flows overloaded Kazakhstan’s North–East–South transmission corridor, triggering emergency protection systems. Akkenzhenov said the protection systems had worked effectively and praised KEGOC’s response. Kazakhstan’s power system was restored in approximately 2.5 hours. Kyrgyzstan acknowledges that the two units went offline. The country’s Energy Ministry described the incident as the “initial disturbance” in the interconnected power system, but stressed that the first event in an emergency sequence cannot automatically be considered the cause of all subsequent outages. According to its account, by 3:55 p.m. Kyrgyzstan time — 2:55 p.m. in Kazakhstan — the frequency in the interconnected power system had returned to the normal 50 Hz. At that point, Kyrgyzstan was also supplying neighboring power systems with about 250 MW. Bishkek maintains that the outage affecting the Almaty power hub occurred after normal frequency had already been restored. Kyrgyz energy officials therefore consider it premature to directly attribute all subsequent events to the failure at the Toktogul HPP. The disagreement, therefore, is less about what happened first than about the causal link between the initial failure and the chain of outages that followed. Why the Regional Grid Is Vulnerable The vulnerability is rooted in the architecture of the region’s power system itself. During the Soviet period, its power plants and high-voltage transmission lines were designed to operate as a single interconnected system rather than around today’s national borders. Energy ties weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but in recent years the countries have again expanded parallel operation of their power systems. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are connected through the Integrated Power System of Central Asia. Cross-border power flows are coordinated by the Energia Coordinating Dispatch Center in Tashkent. Hydropower in Kyrgyzstan and...